今日周三（2月25日)欧盘时段，黄金小幅走高，但仍受阻于5200美元关口。本轮上涨主要受两大因素推 动：一是中东军事部署升级，美伊核谈判前夕冲突担忧升温，避险需求抬升；二是美元阶段性走弱，提 升以美元计价黄金的吸引力。不过，美联储纪要显示，多数官员坚持偏鹰立场，认为通胀未明显回落前 不宜过快降息，货币政策仍对金价构成制约。 黄金日线及4小时结构仍维持多头趋势形态。价格在5100美元上方形成重要结构支撑区域，说明多头防 守较为稳固。 当前市场的关键价格行为特征是：上涨动能放缓，但未出现趋势反转信号。 相对强弱指标(RSI)约在62附近运行，表明市场仍处于强势区间但未进入超买极端状态。MACD指标正 动能逐渐收缩，显示市场进入高位整理阶段，而非趋势顶部结构。 摘要今日周三（2月25日)欧盘时段，黄金小幅走高，但仍受阻于5200美元关口。本轮上涨主要受两大因 素推动：一是中东军事部署升级，美伊核谈判前夕冲突担忧升温，避险需求抬升；二是美元阶段性走 弱，提升以美元计价黄金的吸引力。不过，美联储纪要显示，多数官员坚持偏鹰立场，认为通胀未明显 回落前不宜过快降息，货币政策仍对金价构成制约。 【要闻速递】 美联储官员近期强 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver are expected to wait for stabilization. Gold's long - term strategic allocation value remains unchanged, while short - term market adjustments are ongoing. Silver has short - term adjustment pressure despite long - term positive factors [1]. - Copper is recommended for long - term holding. Although it has short - term fluctuations, long - term prospects are positive due to tight copper concentrate supply and growing green copper demand [1][6]. - Zinc is facing pressure on rebounds. Short - term observation is advised, and long - term, buying on dips is recommended [1][10]. - Lead is under pressure due to losses in domestic lead smelting and weak terminal demand [1]. - Tin, aluminum, and nickel are all facing pressure on rebounds in the short term due to various factors such as supply and demand imbalances [1]. - Industrial silicon is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the production cuts of leading enterprises [1]. - Polysilicon and lithium carbonate are cautiously bullish, but risks should be carefully considered [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: Domestic and foreign gold and silver spot and futures markets showed signs of stabilization after a short - term rebound, but the sustainability needs further observation. The US employment market has challenges, with the ADP employment data in January significantly falling short of expectations [2]. - **Reasons for the Plunge**: The sharp drop in precious metals is due to the over - speculation of the "dollar credit crisis" and "global foreign exchange reserve re - balance" narratives in the short term, combined with excessive price increases leading to high volatility and forced liquidation [3]. - **Long - term Support**: The three pillars supporting the gold price - central bank gold purchases, de - dollarization, and global policy uncertainty - remain stable. The long - term risk is still upward, but the short - term market needs time to adjust [3]. - **Future Influencing Variables**: The Fed's policy path, Trump's policy uncertainty, and AI technological progress will determine the future trend of gold [3]. - **Strategy**: In China, pay attention to the performance of gold around 1080 and silver around 21000. Continue to focus on reducing volatility [3]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The price of copper showed high - level oscillations. The prices of Shanghai copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper all declined to some extent, while the spot price of electrolytic copper increased [4]. - **Industry Logic**: The global copper mine shortage continues, with strikes in Chilean copper mines intensifying the shortage. The processing fee of copper concentrate has reached a new low. The supply of refined copper is expected to slow down, while the demand in the power, new energy vehicle, and big data center sectors is growing [5]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously, take profits in a timely manner, and maintain long - term positions. In the short term, Shanghai copper should focus on the range of [101500, 105500] yuan/ton, and LME copper on the range of [12500, 13500] US dollars/ton [6]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: Shanghai zinc showed a downward trend under pressure [9]. - **Industry Logic**: The global zinc ore supply may shrink in 2026. Domestic zinc production increased in January, but as the Spring Festival approaches, demand is weak and inventory is accumulating. Although traditional demand is weak, emerging fields may offset some of the demand gap [9]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, reduce positions and control risks. In the long term, consider buying on dips. Shanghai zinc should focus on the range of [24200, 25200], and LME zinc on the range of [3250, 3350] US dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The aluminum price faced pressure on rebounds, and alumina showed a downward trend [12]. - **Industry Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues in 2026. The domestic electrolytic aluminum industry is profitable, but inventory is accumulating, and the demand is in the off - season. The overseas bauxite price is under pressure, and the alumina industry has inventory pressure [13]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits and wait and see in the short term, paying attention to the accumulation of aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is [22000 - 24500] [13]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: The nickel price faced pressure on rebounds, while stainless steel showed a slight rebound [15]. - **Industry Logic**: Indonesia may reduce nickel ore production quotas in 2026. The domestic pure nickel inventory is accumulating, and the downstream stainless steel market is in the off - season with increasing inventory [16]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits and wait and see, paying attention to Indonesian policies and downstream stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [120000 - 150000] [17]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2605 showed a trend of rising and then falling, with the increase narrowing at the end [19]. - **Industry Logic**: The domestic lithium salt plant's production and start - up rate are both declining, and the supply is expected to be tight. The demand side may start stocking before the Spring Festival, and the total inventory has been decreasing for three weeks. However, regulatory risks are high [20]. - **Strategy**: Due to increased regulatory risks and trampling risks, hold positions cautiously within the range of [14500 - 156000] [21].

路透调查显示，黄金有望在2026年再度迎来创纪录表现，分析师纷纷上调预测，地缘政治不确定性与央 行强劲购金仍是主要推手。 过去三周对30位分析师和交易员的调查显示，2026年黄金均价预测中位数为每金衡盎司4746.50美元， 为路透2012年开展此类调查以来的最高年度预测，远高于去年10月预测的4275美元。 黄金近期大幅上涨促使分析师多次上调预测。一年前，类似调查显示2026年的均价预测仅为2700美元。 贵金属交易商Gold Core首席执行官David Russell表示："我们正进入一个时期，支撑全球经济和地缘政 治稳定数十年的制度与体系的合法性和韧性，正以一代人未见的方式经受考验。" 黄金看涨因素仍在 周三金价反弹至5100美元附近，此前一天创下逾17年来最大单日涨幅，从1983年以来最严重的两日大跌 中恢复。 分析师认为，推动黄金上涨的因素——包括地缘政治风险、央行强劲购金、对美联储独立性的担忧、美 国债务攀升、贸易不确定性及去美元化趋势——将在2026年继续支撑这种避险资产。 德意志银行分析师表示，"黄金的主题性驱动因素依然积极，我们认为投资者配置黄金（及贵金属）的 理由不会改变。" 分析师预计 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Wait for stabilization. Continue to monitor the adjustment of market trading sentiment, with the previous overbought condition and high VIX index sentiment expected to normalize. Fundamentals have little short - term impact on the market, but in the long - term, the geopolitical order is being reshaped, uncertainties persist, and central banks continue to buy gold, maintaining its long - term strategic allocation value. Pay attention to the adjustment range [1]. - Silver: Wait for stabilization. Short - term game factors dominate, and the silver market's performance is unrelated to fundamentals. Although there has been a supply - demand gap for 5 consecutive years and global large - scale fiscal policies are favorable for silver in the long run, the market will continue to adjust in the short term [1]. - Copper: Hold for the long - term. The relaxation of macro - sentiment, the strong rebound of precious metals, and the suggestion from the non - ferrous metals association to include copper concentrates in the reserve system have stimulated the copper price to strengthen. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously, take profits by moving stop - losses, and maintain patience for long - term positions [1]. - Zinc: Rebound is under pressure. With the relaxation of macro - sentiment and the strong rebound of precious metals, most of the non - ferrous sectors are in the green, but the speculative heat of zinc has cooled, and its price has turned red. As the Spring Festival approaches, demand is weak, and zinc ingot inventories are accumulating. It is recommended to temporarily observe, reduce positions, control risks, and wait for more macro - guidance [1]. - Lead: Under pressure. Domestic lead smelting is in a loss state, terminal consumer market demand has not improved, downstream enterprises only make rigid - demand purchases, and lead ingot social inventories are accumulating, so the lead price is under pressure in the short term [1]. - Tin: Stabilize. The supply disturbance from overseas tin mines has weakened. Currently, domestic smelters' production is relatively stable, but downstream replenishment demand is suppressed by high prices, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. The tin price shows a slight stabilizing trend in the short term [1]. - Aluminum: Stabilize. Overseas bauxite quotes are falling, keeping the alumina cost low. Currently, the domestic aluminum downstream is in a seasonal off - season, and aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories are accumulating. The aluminum price shows a slight stabilizing trend in the short term [1]. - Nickel: Stabilize. The expectation of supply contraction from Indonesian nickel mines has been digested. The situation of high domestic nickel inventories and weak consumption continues, and the inventory of downstream stainless steel has also increased slightly month - on - month. The nickel price shows a slight stabilizing trend in the short term [1]. - Industrial silicon: Wide - range oscillation. Demand has weakened significantly in February. The operating rates in the southwest, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, and Ningxia on the supply side have changed little. Mainly focus on the production cuts of leading large enterprises. If the cuts are implemented effectively, it is expected to drive inventory reduction, and it is advisable to go long on dips [1]. - Polysilicon: Cautiously bearish. There is still pressure on inventory accumulation at the supply - demand level, and with the increase in futures market warehouse receipts, the futures contract has declined. However, a meeting was held again yesterday to study the next - step anti - involution in the industry, and the spot quotation has been raised, driving the futures market up [1]. - Lithium carbonate: Wide - range oscillation. Total inventories have been decreasing for 3 consecutive weeks, and production has declined. Stricter supervision and the sharp decline in the non - ferrous metals sector have dampened market sentiment. The main lithium carbonate contract has been limit - down for two consecutive days, with volatility reaching a new high. Participation should be cautious [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: Both domestic and foreign spot and futures markets for gold and silver have rebounded in the short term, but the sustainability needs to be observed. The SHFE gold price is 1093.78, down 5.82% from the previous value and 7.79% from last week; the COMEX gold price is 4971, up 6.19% from the previous value but down 8.14% from last week. The SHFE silver price is 21446, down 23.25% from the previous value and 26.60% from last week; the COMEX silver price is 85, up 7.13% from the previous value but down 26.66% from last week [3]. - **Core Logic**: The recent sharp decline in precious metals is a technical position clearance in a high - volatility environment, not a fundamental reversal of the long - term logic. Wall Street institutions believe that the three pillars supporting the gold price are still solid, but in the short term, the market needs time to digest volatility and wait for speculative positions to return to a reasonable level. The gold price may find support around $4600, and a new pricing range of $4500 - $5500 is being formed [4]. - **Future Outlook**: Three variables will determine the gold price trend: the Fed's policy path, the unpredictability of Trump's policies, and the progress of AI technology. Domestically, pay attention to the performance of gold around 1100 and silver around 21000 [5]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai copper main contract has strengthened in an oscillatory manner. The price of the Shanghai copper main contract is 105180 yuan/ton, up 3.49% from the previous day; the LME copper price is 13410 US dollars/ton, up 3.95% from the previous day; the COMEX copper price is 609.45 US dollars/pound, up 4.49% from the previous day [6]. - **Industry Logic**: Global copper mines remain in short supply, with strikes in Chilean copper mines exacerbating the shortage. Domestic smelters are expected to reduce production capacity by 10% in 2026, and refined copper supply will slow down marginally. During the off - season of demand, the export window is open, and the C - L spread has converged. However, COMEX copper inventories continue to accumulate. Demand from power, new energy vehicles, and big data centers is on the rise [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Due to the relaxation of macro - sentiment and the stimulus of industrial policies, the copper price is strengthening in the short term. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously, take profits by moving stop - losses, and maintain patience for long - term positions. In the medium - to - long - term, be optimistic about copper due to the shortage of copper concentrates and the explosion of green copper demand. Short - term, the Shanghai copper is expected to be in the range of [102500, 106500] yuan/ton, and the LME copper in the range of [12800, 13800] US dollars/ton [8]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai zinc main contract has declined under pressure. The price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 24805 yuan/ton, down 0.40% from the previous day; the LME zinc price is 3323 US dollars/ton, up 0.14% from the previous day [9]. - **Industry Logic**: Global zinc mine supply may shrink in 2026. Domestic zinc ingot production is expected to increase in January. As the Spring Festival approaches, demand is weak, and inventories are accumulating. Although traditional real estate and infrastructure drag on zinc demand, emerging fields such as new energy vehicles, wind power, and photovoltaics are expected to make up for part of the gap [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, it is recommended to reduce positions, control risks, and wait for more macro - guidance. In the medium - to - long - term, buy on dips on corrections, as global resource protectionism is accelerating, and the supply stability of important mineral resources is facing challenges. The Shanghai zinc is expected to be in the range of [24200, 25200] yuan/ton, and the LME zinc in the range of [3300, 3400] US dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The aluminum price has rebounded slightly, while the alumina price has faced pressure in its rebound. The LME aluminum price is 3099 US dollars/ton, up 1.39% from the previous value; the Shanghai aluminum main contract price is 23810 yuan/ton, up 3.36% from the previous value [12]. - **Industry Logic**: In 2026, the expectation of Fed rate cuts continues. The domestic electrolytic aluminum industry is profitable, but inventories are increasing. The domestic aluminum downstream is in a seasonal off - season, and the industry's start - up rate has declined. Overseas bauxite prices are under pressure, and the alumina industry's inventory pressure still exists, but the oversupply situation has slightly improved [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits and observe in the short term, paying attention to the accumulation of aluminum ingot social inventories. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of [22000 - 24500] yuan/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: The nickel price has rebounded slightly, and the stainless steel price has also rebounded. The LME nickel price is 17395 US dollars/ton, up 2.05% from the previous value; the Shanghai nickel main contract price is 135430 yuan/ton, up 4.40% from the previous value [15]. - **Industry Logic**: In 2026, the expectation of Fed rate cuts continues. Indonesia has significantly reduced its nickel ore production target in 2026, and supply - related disturbances are frequent. Domestic pure nickel inventories are accumulating, and the downstream stainless steel market is in a seasonal off - season, with inventories slightly increasing [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits and observe, paying attention to Indonesian policies and downstream stainless steel inventory changes. The nickel main contract is expected to operate in the range of [120000 - 150000] yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2605 opened high and went high, rising more than 4% [19]. - **Industry Logic**: Domestic lithium salt plant start - up rates and production have both declined. The issue of mica mining licenses has intensified the expectation of supply tightness. Near the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises may start stocking up, and the adjustment of export tax - rebate policies will make the material factories show characteristics of an off - season not being off. Total inventories have been decreasing for 3 consecutive weeks, but regulatory risks are high [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Due to increased regulatory risks and the risk of a stampede, it is advisable to hold positions cautiously in the range of [14300 - 155000] [21].

根据从近期高点下跌20%或更多的定义，白银已进入熊市。根据道琼斯市场数据，最活跃的白银期货合 约在1月30日进入熊市。此前，其价格从1月26日在纽约商品交易所创下的每盎司115.504美元的历史最 高结算价下跌超过30%，于上周五结算于每盎司78.631美元。 从历史最高点到跌入熊市，仅用了四个交易日。上一次如此快速的情况发生在2011年，当时白银在4月 29日触及高点，四个交易日后的5月5日，便跌入了熊市区域。 来源：金十 上周五白银价格单日暴跌逾30%，导致该金属自2022年以来首次进入熊市，但此举并未动摇所有人对其 潜力的信心。 "我倾向于忽略传统的百分比跌幅参数，"Zaner Metals副总裁兼高级金属策略师彼得·格兰特（Peter Grant）表示，并补充说，他"并不完全相信白银已处于熊市"——即使从技术上讲确实如此。 持此观点的并非只有格兰特一人。其他策略师指出，白银价格在12个月内翻了一倍多的惊人涨势，表明 这种兼具贵金属和工业属性的金属不会在熊市中停留太久。 格兰特表示，黄金和白银此前都"过度超买"，因此他还不能断言价格已经见底。然而，价格的整固将让 所有人重新评估市场，他补充说，支撑贵金属 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a significant rise in resource and energy leading stocks, with Zijin Mining and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) reaching historical highs, both surpassing a market capitalization of 1 trillion yuan [1] - Major companies such as Shandong Gold, Zhongjin Gold, China Uranium Industry, and Weichai Power also experienced notable increases, indicating strong performance in the precious metals and oil and gas sectors [1] - The spot gold price broke the $5,000 per ounce mark for the first time on January 26, setting a new historical record [1] Group 2 - Experts indicated that the surge in gold prices is driven by multiple factors, including central bank gold purchases, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical risks, and trends towards de-dollarization [1] - Continuous gold buying by central banks is highlighted as a crucial fundamental factor supporting gold prices [1] - On January 25, U.S. natural gas futures prices exceeded $6 per million British thermal units, reaching the highest level since 2022, influenced by energy supply tightness due to a winter storm [1]

摘要1月23日，COMEX黄金库存录得1124.21吨，较上一交易日持平；COMEX黄金周五（1月23日）收 4982.20美元/盎司，上涨1.25%，comex黄金价格日内最高上探至4991.40美元/盎司，最低触及4901.20美 元/盎司。 美国2025年三季度GDP上修、通胀温和上涨，失业人数低于预期，凸显经济韧性。地缘方面，特朗普试 图吞并格陵兰岛并对多个欧洲国家加征高额关税以及突然的转折，避险情绪冲高回落，通胀上升压力、 贸易格局重塑以及信用货币根基动摇在所难免。 1月23日，COMEX黄金库存录得1124.21吨，较上一交易日持平；COMEX黄金周五（1月23日）收 4982.20美元/盎司，上涨1.25%，comex黄金价格日内最高上探至4991.40美元/盎司，最低触及4901.20美 元/盎司。 美联储降息预期不强、通胀预期回升、美国经济增长向好削弱贵金属的金融属性，欧美贸易战担忧略有 消退，但仍有逢低买盘支撑，美欧协议细节不排除会有新变数；中期来看美国制造业疲软、全球政策不 确定性挑战经济增长前景、美联储降息大趋势、去美元化趋势等令美元承压，驱动贵金属上涨。 最新comex黄金库存数据： ...

周一(1月26日)亚市盘中，现货黄金价格急速拉升，目前交投于5061.74美元/盎司附近，现货黄金在最近 的盘中交易中持续走高，并首次突破5000美元的历史性阻力位。金价目前稳固站上50日指数移动平均线 (EMA50)，该均线作为关键的动态支撑位，确认了目前强劲的看涨动能，进一步巩固了短线多头趋势的 主导地位。 移动平均趋同/背离(MACD)线位于信号线之上且高于零，正向直方图正在扩展，表明看涨动能在增强。 相对强度指标(RSI)为80.76，表明条件已被拉伸，可能会在此之前暂停。如果动能降温，支撑位与通道 底部接近4932.75美元。保持该基础将保留看涨结构，而决定性下破将发出更深的修正阶段的信号。 此外，美国总统唐纳德.特朗普在周六表示，如果加拿大继续与中国达成贸易协议，他将对其征收100% 的关税。这继续推动黄金在周一创下连续第六个交易日的新高。 这还加上了更广泛的去美元化趋势，以及对美联储将在2026年再降息两次的押注，这将美元拖至四个月 低点，并成为另一个利好贵金属的因素。 另外，本周美联储议息会议将于北京时间1月30日凌晨3点公布1月利率决议，随后美联储主席召开新闻 发布会，本次会议大概率维持利率 ...

前言： 什么样的行情才是最难做的行情？明明看着行情在涨，可就是鼓不起勇气跟上节奏，好不容易跟上，结 果是诱多行情，单子再一次打损！总在反复究竟与犹豫中与你的利润失之交臂，除了一声叹息，什么都 没有改变，炒黄金亏损的账面依旧有一个大写的的负号刺激着你，或许老天也有眷顾的一天，行情一波 回调给了你机会，可是回调是否是行情的反转？无论现货黄金行情怎么动，总有一个理由阻止你。似乎 总是这样，行情总喜欢跟你开玩笑，总在牵着你的鼻子走，你也总在追赶它的脚步，却总是追不上，被 它一次次伤害，最后弄得自己遍体鳞伤，交易之路慢慢，随波逐流者多之!然不谋全局者不足谋一城， 市场风云，变幻莫测，定其心，观其势，谋定而后动，不乱于心，不困于情，运筹帷幄之中，方能决胜 千里之外。买卖点位不应该是随意进场，请对自己的资金负责，永远记住一句话，专业的人做专业的 事，一切实战只为盈利，合作只为双赢。经常做错方向和进出场点位把控的不是很好，操作中亏损的朋 友，可与晟富一起交流。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 在2026年的开年之际，全球黄金市场迎来了一场史无前例的狂飙盛宴。现货黄金价格周四首次突破每盎 司4900 ...

黄金（XAU/USD）近期延续周线上涨趋势，周三亚洲交易时段持续刷新历史高点。美国总统特朗普对部分欧洲国家的关税表态引发市场波动，投资者风险 偏好调整，提升对避险资产需求，支撑金价上行。 周三亚洲时段尾盘，买盘将金价推升至4850美元水平。美元普遍走弱进一步助推涨势。周二受相关表态影响，市场出现抛售美元倾向，美元指数跌至近两周 低点，美元疲软增加了以美元计价黄金的吸引力。 市场对美联储后续宽松政策的预期调整，遏制了美元进一步下跌，同时制约短期超买的黄金。黄金作为无息资产，其走势与美元强弱及利率预期密切相关。 美联储政策动向通过影响市场资金流向，直接作用于黄金价格波动。 美联储政策前景是影响美元走势的核心因素，美元强弱反向作用于黄金价格。若关键数据显示美国通胀或经济增速超预期，将改变对美联储宽松政策的预 期，推动美元走强并压制金价；数据不及预期则会强化宽松预期，削弱美元并助推黄金上涨。 技术面显示，黄金最新上涨已确认突破当月上升通道顶部，释放看涨信号。金价若能站稳4800美元关口上方，将巩固看涨态势，支撑后续趋势延续。 移动平均线收敛发散指标（MACD）线运行在信号线上方，两者均处于零轴以上，显示黄金看涨动能持 ...