去美元化趋势

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多重利好支撑贵金属板块 沪金主力合约日间盘收涨逾4%
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 07:44
国信证券研报称,短期来看,9月以来的上涨动能虽有所释放,但美联储宽松周期的延续、地缘政治风 险的常态化以及市场投资需求的持续流入,仍将推动金价维持高位震荡偏强的格局。长期而言,全球货 币信用体系重构、去美元化趋势、各国央行持续购金以及供需结构性失衡等因素构成了黄金上涨的核心 支撑,这一支撑体系在未来2-3年内难以发生根本性改变,因此黄金的长期上涨趋势仍将延续。 徽商期货研报认为,短期内美国政府"停摆"危机持续发酵,使得市场在判断经济走向以及美联储政策路 径时面临的难度显著增大,进而导致市场风险加剧,投资避险情绪高涨。除此之外,美国经济的不确定 性不断增加,这使得市场对美联储降息的预期有所升温,实际利率也趋于下行。鉴于宏观经济增长放 缓、货币政策宽松以及地缘局势等诸多因素的支撑,贵金属价格长期内维持偏多的思路。 上证报中国证券网讯(记者 严晓菲)10月9日日间盘,国内商品期货主力合约涨跌互现,其中沪金主力 合约强势领涨。 截至15:00收盘,沪金、国际铜、沪铜等涨超4%,豆油、沪镍、沪银等涨超2%,沪锌、沪铝、红枣等涨 超1%,铁矿石、棉纱、白糖等微涨。跌幅方面,生猪、液化石油气跌超5%,鸡蛋跌超4%,尿素跌超 ...
香港第一金:黄金疯了吗?4000美元不是梦!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-30 11:41
推动黄金暴涨的三大事件 美国政府停摆风险,引爆市场避险情绪 市场担忧美国政府可能因短期支出法案未能通过而于9月30日午夜陷入"停摆"。这一风险事件可能导致 包括非农就业报告在内的重要经济数据推迟发布,为美联储货币政策增添不确定性,显著推高了市场的 避险需求。 地缘政治风险持续升级 俄乌冲突升级以及中东持续的紧张局势共同加剧了全球政治的紧张氛围。在此背景下,黄金作为传统的 避险资产,受到了投资者的青睐。 全球央行与机构资金持续买入 全球央行购金潮:全球央行已连续3年每年增持黄金超过1000吨。世界黄金协会数据显示,2025年第二 季度全球央行净购金量达到166吨,为金价提供了坚实的底部支撑。 机构资金涌入:全球黄金ETF持仓量出现了三年来最快的单周增长。截至9月26日,SPDR黄金ETF的持 仓量创下2022年8月以来最高,显示机构投资者正大举配置黄金。 黄金操作策略与建议 在金价已创历史新高的背景下,操作上建议顺势而为,但避免盲目追高。 对于短线交易者 主要思路:回踩做多是相对稳健的策略。 关键支撑位: 3808-3814美元/盎司 3788-3790美元/盎司 风险提示:金价处于高位,应避免在中间位置追高, ...
徽商期货:黄金价格重心将继续上移
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-09-23 01:00
Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December of the previous year, with a total reduction of 125 basis points in the current easing cycle [2] - The median of the latest dot plot indicates an additional 50 basis points of potential cuts by 2025, aligning with market expectations [2] - The Fed's statement highlighted a slowdown in the labor market and a rise in inflation, with Chairman Powell adopting a somewhat hawkish tone, indicating that the next steps in monetary policy remain unclear [2] Group 2: Economic and Market Implications - The U.S. economy is experiencing a slowdown, and the expectation of further rate cuts is putting pressure on the dollar [3] - The total U.S. federal debt has reached $36.2 trillion, with public holdings at $28.95 trillion, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. government debt [3] - Despite a resilient consumer sector, the labor market is showing signs of cooling, prompting the Fed to adopt a "risk management" approach to rate cuts [2] Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - Global gold demand increased by 3% year-on-year in Q2 2025, reaching 1249 tons, with a significant 45% rise in value to $132 billion [4] - Central banks remain a crucial pillar of gold demand, with official reserves increasing by 166 tons in Q2, reflecting a long-term strategic approach to optimize foreign exchange reserves [4] - Geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of continued Fed rate cuts are driving strong investment demand for gold, despite high prices suppressing jewelry consumption [4]
ZFX山海证券:黄金三连涨!创下五周以来最高点!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-29 15:44
美元指数持续走软为金价上涨提供了重要支撑。8月28日,美元指数下跌0.3%,至97.85水平,这已经是美元连续 第三个交易日下跌。美元疲软使得以美元计价的黄金对海外买家来说更加便宜,从而刺激了国际需求。纽约联储 主席威廉姆斯关于可能降息的暗示,进一步强化了市场对美元走弱的预期。当美元失去往日光彩,黄金这座传统 的"避风港"自然成为资金追逐的对象。 (2)以色列空袭也门 以色列国防军8月28日发表声明称,以军当天对也门胡塞武装的军事目标发动了空袭。声明称,胡塞武装在伊朗的 指导和资助下,不断威胁以色列及其盟友安全,破坏地区稳定,并扰乱国际航行自由。 (3)美联储独立性担忧 周四(8月28日),现货黄金价格强势突破3400美元心理关口,最高触及每盎司3423.02美元,创下自7月23日以来 的五周最高点。这场金价飙升的背后,是美元走软、以色列空袭也门、美联储独立性担忧以及避险资金涌入等多 重因素的共同推动。 黄金本轮连续上涨原因 (1)美元持续走软 截至2025年8月29日,国际现货黄金价格报3416.86美元/盎司,近期呈现震荡上行趋势。COMEX黄金期货价格达 到3475.4美元/盎司,创近期新高。市场普遍预 ...
黄金、白银期货品种周报-20250811
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 03:05
Report Overview - Report Title: Gold and Silver Futures Weekly Report - Report Period: August 11 - 15, 2025 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Gold**: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in a sideways phase, possibly at the beginning. Last week, the gold price showed a volatile and upward - biased trend due to multiple factors. In the short - term, it is range - bound, affected by the US dollar index and geopolitical risks. If the Fed starts a rate - cut cycle in September, the gold price is expected to rise further. Geopolitical risks can also push up the price. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Silver**: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a steady upward phase, currently at the end of the trend. Last week, the silver price trended upward in a volatile manner. In the long - term, it benefits from global loose monetary policies and the de - dollarization trend, but the weak industrial demand during the rate - cut cycle may suppress the price. The gold - silver ratio has room for repair, and silver has the potential for a supplementary increase. It is also recommended to wait and see [31]. 3. Summary by Section Gold Futures 3.1. Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is sideways, possibly at the start. Last week, the price was driven by weak non - farm payrolls strengthening rate - cut expectations, a falling US dollar, geopolitical risks, and increased capital positions, showing a volatile and upward - biased trend. Short - term is range - bound, affected by the US dollar index and geopolitical risks. If the Fed cuts rates in September, the price may rise further, and geopolitical risks can push it up [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3.2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The gold main contract 2510 was expected to be mainly in a volatile operation, and grid trading was recommended in the 735 - 838 range [11]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The gold main contract 2510 is still expected to be mainly in a volatile operation, and grid trading is recommended in the 735 - 838 range [12]. 3.3. Relevant Data Situation - The report presents data on the price trends of Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference through charts [19][21][23]. Silver Futures 3.1. Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is steadily rising, currently at the end of the trend. Last week, the price trended upward in a volatile manner. In the long - term, it benefits from global loose monetary policies and de - dollarization, but weak industrial demand during the rate - cut cycle may suppress the price. The gold - silver ratio has room for repair, and silver has the potential for a supplementary increase [31]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [32]. 3.2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The silver contract 2510 was expected to be mainly in high - level volatility, with a lower support range of 8500 - 8800 and an upper pressure range of 9200 - 9500 [35]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The silver contract 2510 is still expected to be mainly in high - level volatility, with a lower support range of 8500 - 8800 and an upper pressure range of 9200 - 9500 [36]. 3.3. Relevant Data Situation - The report presents data on the price trends of Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver, SLV Silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference through charts [41][43][45].
经济数据大超预期,美联储鹰派表述,金价遭受重击丨黄金早参
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-31 01:33
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, and Powell's hawkish remarks dampened expectations for rate cuts, leading to a significant drop in gold prices, with COMEX gold futures falling 1.58% to $3327.9 per ounce [1] - The U.S. economy showed resilience with July ADP employment numbers increasing by 104,000, surpassing economists' expectations of 75,000, and Q2 GDP growing at an annualized rate of 3.0%, well above the expected 2.4% [1] - Powell emphasized that the Fed has not made any decisions regarding the September meeting and highlighted the importance of controlling inflation, which led to a sharp decline in the probability of a rate cut from 65% to 45% [1] Group 2 - Despite the short-term pressure on gold prices, market analysts remain cautiously optimistic about the long-term outlook for gold, citing ongoing global economic uncertainty, high U.S. debt levels, and the trend of de-dollarization as key factors [2] - Analysts suggest that while gold prices may face deeper corrections, these conditions could attract buyers when prices reach the lower end of the range, indicating that long-term investors may view pullbacks as buying opportunities [2]
经济数据大超预期,美联储鹰派表述,金价遭受重击
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-07-31 01:23
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, and Powell's hawkish remarks dampened expectations for rate cuts, leading to a significant drop in gold prices, with COMEX gold futures falling 1.58% to $3327.9 per ounce [1] - The U.S. economy showed resilience with July ADP employment numbers increasing by 104,000, surpassing economists' expectations of 75,000, and Q2 GDP growing at an annualized rate of 3.0%, well above the expected 2.4% [1] - Powell emphasized that the Fed has not made any decisions regarding the September meeting and highlighted the importance of controlling inflation, which led to a sharp decline in the probability of a rate cut from 65% to 45% [1] Group 2 - Despite the short-term pressure on gold prices, market analysts remain cautiously optimistic about the long-term outlook for gold, citing ongoing global economic uncertainty, high U.S. debt levels, and the trend of de-dollarization as key factors [2] - Analysts suggest that while gold prices may face deeper corrections, these conditions could attract buyers when prices reach the lower end of the range, indicating that long-term investors may view pullbacks as buying opportunities [2]
【UNFX 课堂】黄金回调蓄势非农风暴本周来袭这样布局更稳妥
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-28 12:24
Group 1 - Recent gold price correction is seen as a potential opportunity rather than a warning for investors, especially with the upcoming U.S. July non-farm payroll report [1][4] - The correction is a healthy market adjustment, with gold prices stabilizing above key support levels, potentially building momentum for further increases [3] - The market is currently focused on the non-farm payroll report, which is expected to be a key driver for gold and the broader financial market this week [4] Group 2 - Key data points to watch include the number of new non-farm jobs, unemployment rate, and average hourly wage growth, which are critical indicators of the U.S. labor market and inflation expectations [5][6] - If the non-farm data is weaker than expected, it could benefit gold by reinforcing expectations for earlier or faster interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, thereby lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold [7] - Conversely, stronger-than-expected data could be bearish for gold, as it may weaken rate cut expectations and increase the attractiveness of the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [7] Group 3 - Suggested strategies for trading during the non-farm week include maintaining light positions before the data release, focusing on key support and resistance levels, and being cautious about heavy bets [8] - During the data release, aggressive traders may capitalize on immediate volatility, while more conservative traders are advised to wait for the market to stabilize before entering positions [10] - Post-release, the trend should be confirmed before taking further positions, with a focus on whether gold breaks through significant resistance or support levels [11]
美联储降息预期升温,黄金重回3300美元上方,美元创1973年来最差表现!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-01 06:06
Core Viewpoint - The financial market is experiencing significant volatility in gold prices due to intertwined influences of Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations and geopolitical risks, with a focus on U.S. economic data, particularly employment indicators [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - The U.S. dollar index has declined by 10.8% in the first half of 2025, marking the worst performance since 1973, largely due to uncertainties surrounding Trump's trade policies and pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [3] - Current market expectations suggest that the U.S. will implement three interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, providing crucial support for non-yielding assets like gold [3] - Technical analysis indicates that international gold prices are stabilizing around $3,300, with a previous resistance at $3,450, while the price remains supported above the 60-day moving average [3] Group 2: Trade Uncertainty and Safe-Haven Demand - The complexity of the global trade environment enhances gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, with ongoing uncertainties regarding U.S. tariff policies affecting market sentiment [4] - Although recent data shows that the actual impact of tariff policies is less severe than anticipated, limited progress in trade negotiations continues to create a foundation for future monetary easing [4] - The outcome of trade agreements will be critical in shaping market sentiment, as failure to reach agreements could lead to inflationary pressures on the U.S. economy and increased uncertainty regarding the timing of the Federal Reserve's monetary easing [4]
跟着财政做配置
2025-06-02 15:44
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **U.S. government fiscal policy** and the implications of the **Trump administration's economic strategies**. Core Points and Arguments - The **U.S. fiscal deficit** is severe, with a projected deficit rate of **6.4% in 2024**, the second highest since the subprime mortgage crisis, and a government leverage ratio of **112%**, second only to Japan [2][3] - The **Trump administration's core policy** focuses on tax cuts and spending reductions, which are expected to reduce annual fiscal revenue by approximately **$100 billion** [2][5] - The administration aims to offset revenue losses through tariffs and reductions in financial sector incentives, although tariffs contribute less than **2%** to total fiscal revenue [5][9] - The term **"Ferguson Moment"** refers to the situation where debt interest payments exceed defense spending, indicating a potential decline in national power, which the U.S. has currently reached [7] - The administration's measures to address the fiscal deficit include **freezing subsidies**, **streamlining government agencies**, and **reducing foreign aid**, with expected savings of about **$150 billion** annually from subsidy cuts alone [8] - The **interest payments** on national debt have increased significantly, with a **130% rise** from 2019 to 2024, surpassing defense spending [6] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The **high interest rates** and the end of the Fed's rate hike cycle are exacerbating fiscal pressures, leading to a potential increase in U.S. debt yields and a rise in gold prices in the long term [3][11] - Future measures to further reduce spending may include **reforming government structure**, **reducing social welfare**, and **controlling emergency spending**, although these face significant political challenges [10] - The administration is also considering selling federal assets, including **rail companies, postal services**, and **gold reserves**, estimated at **$700 billion** in market value [9]