目录 中线行情分析 2025.08.11-08.15 黄金、白银 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 黄金期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 沪金期货整体趋势处在横盘阶段，当前可能处于开始阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周黄金价格受弱非农强化降息预期+美元回落+地缘避险+资金增仓， 共同推动周内震荡偏强走势。短期走势黄金价格处在区间震荡整理，受 美元指数波动和地缘政治风险影响较大。中长期走势：若美联储在9月 开启降息周期，黄金价格有望进一步上行。同时，若地缘政治风险加剧， 黄金的避险属性将推动价格持续走高。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 黄金主力合约2510预期震荡运行为主，建议：735－838区间进行 网格交易。 n 本周策略建议 黄金主力合约2510预期震荡运行为主，建议：735－838区间进行 网格交易。 品种诊断情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 精选指标情况 [图片] 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 5,500,500.00 10, ...

Group 1 - Recent gold price correction is seen as a potential opportunity rather than a warning for investors, especially with the upcoming U.S. July non-farm payroll report [1][4] - The correction is a healthy market adjustment, with gold prices stabilizing above key support levels, potentially building momentum for further increases [3] - The market is currently focused on the non-farm payroll report, which is expected to be a key driver for gold and the broader financial market this week [4] Group 2 - Key data points to watch include the number of new non-farm jobs, unemployment rate, and average hourly wage growth, which are critical indicators of the U.S. labor market and inflation expectations [5][6] - If the non-farm data is weaker than expected, it could benefit gold by reinforcing expectations for earlier or faster interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, thereby lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold [7] - Conversely, stronger-than-expected data could be bearish for gold, as it may weaken rate cut expectations and increase the attractiveness of the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [7] Group 3 - Suggested strategies for trading during the non-farm week include maintaining light positions before the data release, focusing on key support and resistance levels, and being cautious about heavy bets [8] - During the data release, aggressive traders may capitalize on immediate volatility, while more conservative traders are advised to wait for the market to stabilize before entering positions [10] - Post-release, the trend should be confirmed before taking further positions, with a focus on whether gold breaks through significant resistance or support levels [11]

近期金融市场呈现复杂态势，美联储货币政策预期与地缘政治风险交织影响下，黄金价格经历了显著波动。市场对美联储降息时点的预期升温，叠加全球贸 易环境的不确定性，为贵金属市场带来了新的支撑因素。当前投资者密切关注美国经济数据表现，特别是就业市场指标对货币政策路径的指引作用。 美联储政策预期推动金价反弹动力 美元指数在2025年上半年累计下跌10.8%，创下1973年以来同期最差表现。这一疲软态势与特朗普贸易政策的不确定性密切相关，同时总统对美联储降息的 持续施压也给美元造成下行压力。随着美元走软，黄金重新回升至3300美元上方，显示出贵金属对货币政策预期变化的敏感性。 市场当前预期美国下半年将实施三次降息，这种预期为黄金等非生息资产提供了重要支撑。美联储官员近期表态显示，如果经济数据符合预期且通胀继续向 2%目标回落，逐步转向更为中性的政策立场可能是合适的。投资者特别关注即将公布的美国就业数据，若数据走弱将进一步提升7月降息概率，金价或迎来 补涨机会。 当前市场正处于期待关税冲突降温的阶段，中东局势也步入相对缓和期。然而，7月关税暂缓截止期临近，市场需要警惕相关炒作再度升温的可能性。美债 信用危机背景下的去美元化趋 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **U.S. government fiscal policy** and the implications of the **Trump administration's economic strategies**. Core Points and Arguments - The **U.S. fiscal deficit** is severe, with a projected deficit rate of **6.4% in 2024**, the second highest since the subprime mortgage crisis, and a government leverage ratio of **112%**, second only to Japan [2][3] - The **Trump administration's core policy** focuses on tax cuts and spending reductions, which are expected to reduce annual fiscal revenue by approximately **$100 billion** [2][5] - The administration aims to offset revenue losses through tariffs and reductions in financial sector incentives, although tariffs contribute less than **2%** to total fiscal revenue [5][9] - The term **"Ferguson Moment"** refers to the situation where debt interest payments exceed defense spending, indicating a potential decline in national power, which the U.S. has currently reached [7] - The administration's measures to address the fiscal deficit include **freezing subsidies**, **streamlining government agencies**, and **reducing foreign aid**, with expected savings of about **$150 billion** annually from subsidy cuts alone [8] - The **interest payments** on national debt have increased significantly, with a **130% rise** from 2019 to 2024, surpassing defense spending [6] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The **high interest rates** and the end of the Fed's rate hike cycle are exacerbating fiscal pressures, leading to a potential increase in U.S. debt yields and a rise in gold prices in the long term [3][11] - Future measures to further reduce spending may include **reforming government structure**, **reducing social welfare**, and **controlling emergency spending**, although these face significant political challenges [10] - The administration is also considering selling federal assets, including **rail companies, postal services**, and **gold reserves**, estimated at **$700 billion** in market value [9]

本文基于以下微博话题的智搜结果生成 黄金价格下跌的核心原因与现状分析 当前价格动态 国际金价：2025年5月27日，国际现货黄金价格盘中一度跌破3300美元/盎司，收于3300.46美元/盎司， 跌幅1.25%；COMEX黄金期货收于3299.70美元/盎司，跌幅1.27%。这是继4月23日大幅回调后，黄金短 期内第二次失守3300美元关键心理关口。 国内金饰价格：国内品牌足金饰品价格普遍回落至1000元/克以下。例如，周大福、老庙等品牌足金价 格从4月高点约1022元/克降至约987元/克，单日跌幅最高达16元/克，但部分消费者认为实际跌幅有限， 仍处于高位。 下跌核心驱动因素 市场避险情绪降温 获利了结与流动性压力 黄金自2022年10月至2025年5月累计涨幅接近一倍，高位积累的获利盘抛售加剧波动。 部分杠杆投资者因保证金不足被强制平仓，市场出现恐慌性抛售。 未来走势展望 短期风险：若金价失守3280美元支撑位，可能进一步下探3245美元甚至3200美元；反弹需突破3330- 3350美元阻力区间。 中期支撑：全球央行连续三年增持黄金（2024年购金量达1045吨），以及美国债务规模突破40万亿美元 等 ...