Core Viewpoint - The A-share market opened lower on November 7, while COMEX gold futures showed strength, trading around $4007, indicating a mixed performance in gold-related products and ongoing investor interest despite recent price corrections [1] Market Performance - A-share indices opened collectively lower, with COMEX gold futures experiencing fluctuations around $4007 [1] - Gold ETF 华夏 (518850) rose by 0.19%, and gold stock ETF (159562) increased by 0.29%, with holdings in companies like 万国黄金集团, 中国黄金国际, 湖南黄金, 招金矿业, and 紫金矿业 showing strength [1] - In contrast, the non-ferrous metals ETF (516650) declined by 0.06% [1] Fund Flows - Notably, the international gold price is currently experiencing a high-level correction around $4000, yet related ETF products continue to attract capital [1] - The gold ETF 华夏 (518850) has seen a net inflow of 287 million over six consecutive trading days, while the gold stock ETF (159562) has accumulated a net inflow of 175 million in the same period [1] Long-term Outlook - Year-to-date, the spot gold price has surged over 51%, with a peak increase of 65% in October, followed by a correction of over 8% [1] - According to Guosen Securities, long-term factors such as the restructuring of the global monetary credit system, de-dollarization trends, ongoing central bank gold purchases, and structural supply-demand imbalances are key supports for gold's price increase [1] - The recent decline does not alter the fundamental logic of gold's upward trend, suggesting that the long-term bull market for gold will continue [1]

Core Viewpoint - The long-term potential for gold remains strong despite short-term fluctuations, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and economic conditions, while the recent U.S. government shutdown adds to market volatility [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Huatai Futures indicates that the U.S. ADP employment numbers for October increased by 42,000, significantly surpassing the expected 30,000, while the previous month's data was revised down by 29,000, suggesting a slowdown in overall labor demand [1]. - New Lake Futures reports that overnight precious metal prices rebounded, with London spot gold closing around $3,980 per ounce, and silver returning to the $48 per ounce mark, indicating a potential support level for precious metals [2]. - CITIC Securities highlights that historical trends show gold prices are closely linked to geopolitical turmoil and weak U.S. economic performance, with current risks not being significant [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The ISM services PMI for October rose by 2.4 points to 52.4, marking an eight-month high, which exceeded expectations of 50.8, while the new orders index jumped by 5.8 points to 56.2, the highest in a year [1]. - FXStreet analysts note that better U.S. employment data has strengthened the dollar, impacting precious metals negatively, although uncertainties from the government shutdown may still push gold prices higher [3]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Sprott Inc. suggests that while gold prices may consolidate in the short term, there is significant long-term upside potential, with geopolitical and economic uncertainties continuing to support gold and silver prices [4]. - The ongoing trend of central bank gold purchases, combined with global monetary expansion and de-dollarization, is expected to sustain upward pressure on precious metal prices [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Gold**: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly at the end of the trend. Short - term may continue to fluctuate in the range of $4000 - 4200, with increased volatility risk. In the medium - to - long - term, there is still an upward basis, and the correction may be an opportunity for layout. It is recommended to wait and see [7][8]. - **Silver**: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a strong upward stage, currently at the end of the trend. Short - term may continue to fluctuate in the range of $47 - 50, with increased volatility risk. In the medium - to - long - term, there is still an upward basis, and attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical situation and liquidity changes on prices. It is recommended to wait and see [29]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures 3.1.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly at the end of the trend [7]. - **Judgment Logic**: At the beginning of last week, gold prices dropped significantly from the high due to geopolitical risk mitigation, long - position profit - taking, and short - term liquidity tightening. Then it formed an oscillating balance in the range of $4100 - 4150 for three trading days [7]. - **Future Outlook**: Short - term may continue to fluctuate in the range of $4000 - 4200, with increased volatility risk; in the medium - to - long - term, supported by the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, global central bank gold purchases, and the de - dollarization trend, the upward basis still exists, and the correction may be an opportunity for layout [7]. - **Mid - line Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: For the gold contract 2512, be vigilant against the technical correction caused by the departure of profit - taking positions. The lower support level is 898 - 903, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The gold contract 2512 is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The upper resistance is 960 - 965, and the lower support is 920 - 925. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. 3.1.3 Relevant Data Situation - Multiple data charts are provided, including the price trends of Shanghai Gold and COMEX Gold, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, COMEX Gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [17][19][21][23][25]. Silver Futures 3.2.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a strong upward stage, currently at the end of the trend [29]. - **Judgment Logic**: Last week, silver prices showed the characteristics of "rising, correcting, and then oscillating and consolidating". At the beginning of the week, due to the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment, the alleviation of liquidity tension, and long - position profit - taking, the price dropped significantly from the high, and then formed a short - term balance in the range of $48 - 48.7 for three trading days [29]. - **Future Outlook**: Short - term may continue to fluctuate in the range of $47 - 50, with increased volatility risk; in the medium - to - long - term, supported by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the global de - dollarization trend, the upward basis still exists. Attention should be paid to the impact of the repeated geopolitical situation and liquidity changes on prices [29]. - **Mid - line Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [29]. 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: It was expected that silver would mainly fluctuate at a high level. It was recommended to buy on dips, and the lower support range was 10700 - 11000 [32]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: It is expected that the main silver contract 2512 will mainly fluctuate at a high level. The upper resistance is 11785 - 12085, and the lower support is 10915 - 11285. It is recommended to wait and see [33]. 3.2.3 Relevant Data Situation - Multiple data charts are provided, including the price trends of Shanghai Silver and COMEX Silver, SLV Silver ETF holdings, COMEX Silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [40][42][44].

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices, dropping 6.3% and marking the largest single-day drop in 12 years, is attributed to various factors including rumors surrounding the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, easing trade relations, and the reopening of the U.S. government. Despite this short-term volatility, the long-term bullish logic for gold remains intact [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The current gold price surge is fundamentally different from earlier trends, as central banks have not participated in the recent price increases since September. The rise has been primarily driven by investment and speculative traders, indicating a lack of stability typically provided by central bank purchases [3][6]. - The significant increase in ETF sizes during this gold price rise contrasts sharply with earlier trading conditions, as ETF funds are characterized by rapid inflows and outflows, leading to heightened volatility [4][6]. Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggested that the recent gold price surge was unsustainable, as it reached the upper limit of three standard deviations, a point historically associated with subsequent price corrections [7][9]. - The implied volatility of gold ETFs has surged, which historically signals potential turning points and exhaustion of trends, providing a clear warning of an impending sharp correction [9]. Historical Context - Historical analysis shows that after a nine-week consecutive rise in gold prices, the typical adjustment range has been between 20% to 40%. The maximum declines observed in past instances ranged from 17% to 42%, with the most significant drops occurring between 23 to 148 trading days after the peak [12][14]. - Despite the short-term adjustment pressures, the long-term bullish narrative for gold remains strong, supported by the restructuring of the global monetary credit system, de-dollarization trends, ongoing central bank gold purchases, and structural supply-demand imbalances [12][14].

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices, dropping 6.3% and marking the largest single-day drop in 12 years, is attributed to various factors including rumors surrounding the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, easing trade relations, and the reopening of the U.S. government. Despite this short-term volatility, the long-term bullish logic for gold remains intact [1][14]. Market Structure - The current gold price increase is fundamentally different from earlier trends this year, as central banks have not participated in the recent rally since September. The rise has been primarily driven by investment and speculative traders, leading to a more fragile market structure [2][3]. - The absence of central bank buying power has resulted in a significant increase in ETF sizes, which are characterized by rapid inflows and outflows, contributing to heightened market volatility [2]. Technical Indicators - Technical analysis indicates that the recent gold price surge reached a critical threshold, with the price touching three times the standard deviation upper limit, suggesting a natural correction is due [4]. - A notable warning signal is the sharp rise in implied volatility of gold ETFs, which historically indicates potential turning points and exhaustion of trends [6]. Historical Context - Historical data shows that after a nine-week consecutive rise in gold prices, the typical adjustment range is between 20% to 40%, with maximum declines occurring between 23 to 148 trading days post-peak. This suggests that investors should prepare for potential prolonged adjustments [9][12]. Long-term Outlook - Despite the short-term adjustment pressures, the long-term bullish rationale for gold remains robust, supported by the restructuring of the global monetary credit system, de-dollarization trends, ongoing central bank gold purchases, and structural supply-demand imbalances [14].

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the gold market is attributed to technical sell-offs and shifts in market sentiment, with a long-term bullish outlook for gold remaining intact despite short-term fluctuations [1][2][3]. Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced a significant drop, with a decline of over 6% on October 21 and more than 1.5% on October 22, reflecting a correction after a rapid increase [1]. - Analysts suggest that the sharp price movements are a result of profit-taking after a 30% increase since mid-August, combined with geopolitical tensions easing and a slight adjustment in expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [2][3]. Investor Sentiment - The market is currently experiencing intense competition between bullish and bearish factors, with central bank gold purchases and economic uncertainty providing support for gold prices, while geopolitical signals and U.S. economic data lead to rapid re-evaluation of market positions [3][4]. - The World Gold Council's statistics indicate that gold price adjustments have become quicker over time, with significant price increases followed by rapid corrections [3]. Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term volatility, the fundamental drivers supporting gold prices, such as global economic uncertainty and the trend of de-dollarization, remain unchanged [4]. - Analysts believe that the recent deep correction can be viewed as a necessary risk release from an overheated market, with future price movements dependent on global economic trends and central bank policies [4]. Investment Strategy - For investors looking to allocate gold assets, a strategy of regular, incremental purchases is recommended to mitigate timing risks, such as through gold accumulation plans or gold ETFs [5][6]. - It is emphasized that gold should be viewed as part of a broader asset allocation strategy, focusing on its long-term value preservation rather than short-term speculation [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is primarily influenced by geopolitical factors such as the Russia-Ukraine war negotiations, easing trade relations, and the reopening of the U.S. government [2] Trading Structure Concerns - The current gold price increase is characterized by a fragile trading structure, as central banks have not participated, with the market being driven mainly by investors and speculators [3][4] - The absence of central bank buying power has led to increased volatility, as evidenced by the significant growth in ETF sizes, which are typically associated with rapid inflows and outflows [4][5] Technical Indicators Warning - Technical analysis indicates that the recent gold price surge has reached a critical upper limit, suggesting a natural adjustment is due [3][6] - A notable rise in implied volatility of gold ETFs has been observed, historically indicating potential turning points and exhaustion of trends [9] Historical Performance Insights - Historical data shows that after a nine-week consecutive rise in gold prices, adjustments typically range from 20% to 40%, with maximum declines occurring between 23 to 148 trading days later [10][13] - The maximum decline observed in past instances has varied, with the largest drop being 42.3% following a nine-week rise [13] Long-term Bullish Outlook - Despite short-term adjustment pressures, the long-term bullish logic for gold remains intact, supported by the restructuring of the global monetary credit system, de-dollarization trends, and ongoing central bank purchases [14]

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices, dropping 6.3% and marking the largest single-day drop in 12 years, is attributed to various factors including rumors surrounding the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, easing trade relations, and the reopening of the U.S. government. However, the long-term bullish logic for gold remains intact [1][15]. Market Structure - The current trading structure for gold is notably fragile, primarily driven by investors and speculators rather than central banks. This contrasts with earlier market behavior where central bank purchases provided stability. The absence of central bank involvement in the recent price increase raises concerns about market sustainability [2][3][4]. - The recent surge in gold prices has been accompanied by a significant increase in ETF sizes, which are typically characterized by rapid inflows and outflows, leading to heightened volatility [3][4]. Technical Indicators - Technical analysis indicates that the recent price surge reached a critical threshold, with gold hitting three times the standard deviation upper limit, suggesting a natural correction is due. Historical data shows that similar instances have led to price adjustments [5][7]. - The implied volatility of gold ETFs has surged, which historically signals potential turning points and exhaustion of trends, further indicating an impending sharp correction [7]. Historical Context - Historical analysis reveals that after a nine-week consecutive rise in gold prices, the typical adjustment range has been between 20% to 40%, with maximum declines occurring between 23 to 148 trading days post-peak. This suggests that investors should prepare for potential prolonged adjustments [10][13]. Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term pressures for adjustment, the long-term bullish narrative for gold remains robust, supported by the restructuring of the global monetary credit system, de-dollarization trends, ongoing central bank purchases, and structural supply-demand imbalances [15].

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in spot gold prices have been observed, with a significant drop of up to 6.3% followed by a recovery, indicating volatility in the gold market [1][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - On October 21 to 22, spot gold prices experienced a notable decline, with the maximum drop recorded at 6.3% [1]. - Following the drop, spot gold prices rebounded, with a reported increase of 0.98% by October 22, reaching a peak of $4,146.79 per ounce [1]. Group 2: Market Analysis - According to Guosen Securities' latest research report, several long-term factors support the upward trend of gold prices, including the restructuring of the global monetary credit system, the trend of de-dollarization, continuous gold purchases by central banks, and structural supply-demand imbalances [3]. - The recent price drop is not expected to alter the fundamental logic supporting the long-term bullish trend of gold [3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices from a historical high of $4381 to $4182, with a single-day drop of $300, is attributed to a combination of technical corrections, macroeconomic conditions, market sentiment, and capital flows [2] Group 1: Technical Factors - The gold price had risen for nine consecutive weeks prior to the drop, with an annual increase exceeding 57%, indicating an overbought condition. Key technical indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggested a strong need for technical correction [3] - Following the peak at $4381, many investors who entered at lower levels opted to sell to lock in profits, which directly triggered the price plunge [3] Group 2: Macroeconomic Environment - Geopolitical tensions and trade issues have eased, as European leaders called for an immediate ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, reducing the market's expectations of geopolitical risks. Additionally, signals of a temporary easing in global trade tensions, such as President Trump's remarks on tariffs against China, have diminished gold's appeal as a safe haven [4] - Expectations of a resolution to the U.S. government shutdown may lead to a withdrawal of safe-haven funds that had previously flowed into gold due to political uncertainties [5] Group 3: Currency and Asset Competition - The recent strengthening of the U.S. dollar has made gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies, thereby suppressing demand [6] - If market risk aversion continues to decline, some funds may shift from gold to other assets, such as equities, putting additional pressure on gold prices [7] Group 4: Market Structure and Data Expectations - There is a divergence in institutional views, with some major institutions warning of risks. For instance, Bridgewater's analysts noted that demand for gold at prices above $4000 per ounce heavily relies on continued purchases by Western individual investors. A reduction in this demand could pressure gold prices [8] - The market is cautious ahead of key economic data releases on October 24, including the U.S. September CPI and non-farm payrolls, which are critical for Federal Reserve policy decisions. Until these data are clear, market sentiment is likely to remain cautious, with some investors choosing to stay on the sidelines [8] Group 5: Market Outlook and Key Monitoring Points - Following the significant correction, market sentiment towards gold reflects a mix of short-term caution and long-term optimism [9] - The core logic supporting long-term gold price increases remains intact, including global de-dollarization trends, ongoing central bank gold purchases, concerns over U.S. government debt and fiscal deficits, and expectations of future Federal Reserve rate cuts [10] - Key economic data, particularly the CPI on October 24, will be closely monitored. A moderate inflation reading could strengthen rate cut expectations, benefiting gold prices, while stronger-than-expected data may exert downward pressure [11] - Important support levels to watch include $4180-$4150, $4130, and $4100 per ounce, as stability around these levels will be crucial for assessing market strength [11]