交易员已加大押注，认为美联储今年将再降息两次，以支撑持续疲软的劳动力市场。较低的借贷成本往往会提振无收益的黄金；同时，当美元走软时，对大 多数买家而言，黄金价格也会变得更低。 由于美国政府关门，且私营部门就业数据疲软，交易员加大对美联储降息的押注，现货黄金周四盘中再度站上3890关口，但随后持续回落，较日高跌超30美 元；现货白银盘中站上48美元/盎司，续创2011年5月来新高，此后跟随黄金走低，抹去日内涨幅。 City Index高级分析师马特・辛普森（Matt Simpson）表示："非农就业报告发布前，疲软的ADP就业数据重燃了市场对美联储降息的押注，进而压低美元汇 率。美国政府停摆也为金价上涨提供了助力。期货市场持仓情况显示，大型投机者和基金经理仍在追涨，他们的净多头头寸虽有所增加，但尚未达到极端水 平。" SKCharting.com的首席技术策略师Sunil Kumar Dixit指出，从技术面来看，黄金走势仍呈看涨态势，有望进一步延续涨势。支撑因素包括：金价在即时支撑 位3852美元上方保持稳定，且在4小时图上处于强劲的上升平行通道内运行。不过，若想进一步扩大涨幅，金价需强势突破并站稳即时阻力位 ...

Group 1 - The strong upward trend of gold is facing short-term correction risks, with analysts warning of a potential 5%-6% pullback, but the long-term bullish foundation remains solid, with expectations of surpassing $4000 per ounce by 2026 [1][4][6] - Factors driving the continuous rise in gold prices include widespread expectations of an upcoming interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and concerns over the Fed's independence, combined with strong demand from central banks [2][5] - Analysts indicate that gold has entered an "unknown territory" after rapidly breaking through the $3400 and $3500 levels, suggesting that the market may experience a pullback after the current rally, which could present a buying opportunity for investors waiting on the sidelines [3][4] Group 2 - The macroeconomic fundamentals supporting the long-term bullish outlook for gold remain unchanged, with strong market demand reflected in price predictions being reached faster than expected [4][5] - Key factors supporting the long-term bull market for gold include anticipated monetary policy easing, ongoing geopolitical risks, and robust official and investment demand, particularly from central banks and ETFs [5][6] - Analysts provide optimistic long-term price forecasts, with expectations of gold prices reaching around $3800 by the end of this year and potentially exceeding $4000 by 2026, with some predicting prices could rise to $4200 [6] Group 3 - Silver has also performed strongly, reaching approximately $42.73 per ounce, a 14-year high, driven by both its investment and industrial attributes [7][10] - The rise in silver prices is supported by solid fundamentals, including strong physical demand in electronics and solar panels, along with concerns over supply shortages [10]

来源：市场资讯 （来源：今日金价行情） 最新就业数据远逊预期，为美联储本月降息提供了强有力的理由，并推动黄金脱离盘整区间，再度刷新 纪录高位。 abrdn ETF策略总监罗伯特·明特（Robert Minter）指出，金价正朝着他年末每盎司3700美元的目标迈 进，即使短期显得超买："考虑到央行结构性购金需求提升，以及投资者基于降息预期的短期买盘，我 认为金价的上涨仍有基础。" FP Markets的亚伦·希尔（Aaron Hill）同样认为金价并未真正超买："贵金属的上涨确实令人瞩目，但支 撑力量仍然坚实，包括投资需求、央行购金，以及在地缘政治风险和贸易担忧下的避险买盘。" 不过，部分分析师认为金价能否延续涨势，仍取决于美联储的降息幅度。Pepperstone高级市场分析师迈 克尔·布朗（Michael Brown）表示："50个基点的降息门槛仍然较高，考虑到通胀风险依旧存在，以及预 期可能出现偏移。但即使金价短期回调，我依然把它看作买入机会。" 希尔补充称，下周通胀数据可能成为金价能否进一步突破的关键："如果8月CPI和PPI显著低于预期，将 强化50个基点降息的理由，但要完全推动美联储采取如此激进的举措 ...