Core Viewpoint - The price of gold continues to surge, reaching new historical highs, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and increased demand from central banks and investors [12][14]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On October 15, spot gold prices rose to a high of $4,190.47 per ounce, while New York gold reached $4,210 per ounce, both setting new historical records [1][12]. - As of the latest update, spot gold was reported at $4,187.78 per ounce, and New York gold at $4,206.76 per ounce [1]. Group 2: Domestic Gold Market - In the domestic market, the main contracts for Shanghai gold futures rose collectively by over 1% [4]. - The prices for gold jewelry have also increased, with brands like Lao Miao and Chow Tai Fook reporting prices of 1,235 RMB per gram, reflecting a significant rise from the previous day [5][9]. Group 3: Influencing Factors - Recent comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have contributed to the rising gold prices, as he indicated a potential for further interest rate cuts [12]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown adds uncertainty to the economic outlook, which may lead to more aggressive monetary easing by the Fed, thereby reducing the holding costs of gold [12]. - There is a noticeable trend of funds being shifted from U.S. Treasury securities to gold among global central banks, institutional investors, and individual investors [12]. Group 4: Future Predictions - Bank of America has raised its price forecast for gold to $5,000 per ounce by 2026, with a possibility of reaching $6,000 per ounce, contingent on a 28% increase in purchasing volume [14].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government shutdown and weak private sector employment data have increased traders' bets on a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, leading to fluctuations in gold and silver prices [1][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices reached a peak of $3,890 before declining, while silver hit $48 per ounce, marking the highest level since May 2011, before also retreating [1]. - Traders are increasingly betting on two more interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year due to the ongoing weak labor market [5]. - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that traders believe there is nearly a 100% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut this month [5]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Technical analysts suggest that gold remains in a bullish trend, with support at $3,852 and potential targets at $3,914 and $3,934 if it breaks the resistance at $3,898 [3]. - The monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) for gold is at 89-90, indicating an overbought condition, which may lead to profit-taking if key support levels are breached [4]. Group 3: ETF and Investment Trends - The SPDR Gold Trust reported a 0.59% increase in holdings, reaching 1,018.89 tons, the highest level since July 2022 [5]. - September saw the highest monthly net inflow into gold ETFs in three years, with Chinese investors also increasing their holdings in popular gold ETFs [6]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 and $4,300 by the end of 2026 due to increased speculative positions and higher-than-expected ETF holdings [5].

Group 1 - The strong upward trend of gold is facing short-term correction risks, with analysts warning of a potential 5%-6% pullback, but the long-term bullish foundation remains solid, with expectations of surpassing $4000 per ounce by 2026 [1][4][6] - Factors driving the continuous rise in gold prices include widespread expectations of an upcoming interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and concerns over the Fed's independence, combined with strong demand from central banks [2][5] - Analysts indicate that gold has entered an "unknown territory" after rapidly breaking through the $3400 and $3500 levels, suggesting that the market may experience a pullback after the current rally, which could present a buying opportunity for investors waiting on the sidelines [3][4] Group 2 - The macroeconomic fundamentals supporting the long-term bullish outlook for gold remain unchanged, with strong market demand reflected in price predictions being reached faster than expected [4][5] - Key factors supporting the long-term bull market for gold include anticipated monetary policy easing, ongoing geopolitical risks, and robust official and investment demand, particularly from central banks and ETFs [5][6] - Analysts provide optimistic long-term price forecasts, with expectations of gold prices reaching around $3800 by the end of this year and potentially exceeding $4000 by 2026, with some predicting prices could rise to $4200 [6] Group 3 - Silver has also performed strongly, reaching approximately $42.73 per ounce, a 14-year high, driven by both its investment and industrial attributes [7][10] - The rise in silver prices is supported by solid fundamentals, including strong physical demand in electronics and solar panels, along with concerns over supply shortages [10]

Core Viewpoint - The latest employment data in the U.S. fell significantly short of expectations, providing strong justification for the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts this month, which in turn has driven gold prices to record highs [1] Employment Data - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that non-farm employment added only 22,000 jobs in August, far below market expectations [1] - The ADP private employment report also indicated that job additions were below expectations, while the JOLTS report showed a sharp decline in job vacancies for July [1] Gold Price Movement - Following the employment data, gold prices surged, breaking the $3,600 per ounce mark, with a daily increase of over 1% and a weekly gain exceeding 4%, marking the best performance since mid-May [1] - Analysts express mixed views on the sustainability of gold's upward momentum, with some indicating that the price is currently overbought [1] Analyst Perspectives - FXTM's senior market analyst, Lukman Otunuga, noted that while the fundamentals support bullish sentiment for gold, technical indicators suggest a potential correction if prices fall below $3,570 [1] - Ole Hansen from Saxo Bank is more optimistic, predicting gold could reach $3,800 due to expectations of aggressive rate cuts and risks to the Fed's independence [1] - Robert Minter from abrdn ETF believes gold is on track to reach his year-end target of $3,700, supported by structural demand from central banks and investor buying based on rate cut expectations [1] - Aaron Hill from FP Markets argues that the upward trend in precious metals is supported by strong demand factors, including central bank purchases and safe-haven buying amid geopolitical risks [1] Future Considerations - Some analysts suggest that the continuation of gold's rally will depend on the extent of the Fed's rate cuts, with Michael Brown from Pepperstone noting that a 50 basis point cut remains a high threshold [1] - Upcoming inflation data may be crucial for gold's further movement, with expectations that significantly lower CPI and PPI in August could strengthen the case for a 50 basis point cut [1] - Even if the Fed does not implement substantial cuts, the ongoing loose monetary policy is expected to support gold prices in the long term [1]