Core Viewpoint - UBS Securities maintains a baseline forecast of 6% year-on-year growth in total A-share earnings for 2025 [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The medium-term outlook for the market remains positive due to gradual earnings recovery, continuous net inflow of various off-market funds, and the supportive narrative of technology aiding valuation reconstruction [1] - The construction of a capital market focused on investors continues to be a driving force for the upward trend in the stock market [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Growth style is likely to remain the main investment theme, with the ChiNext board showing a favorable risk-reward ratio due to accelerating earnings and long-term resilience [1] - The valuation levels of the ChiNext board, both in absolute terms and relative to the CSI 300, are below long-term averages [1]

Performance Overview - As of July 21, 2025, approximately 1,500 listed companies have disclosed performance forecasts, with a disclosure rate of 28.5%[12] - Among these, 44% of companies expect positive performance, a decrease of 4 percentage points compared to 2024, marking the third lowest level since 2009 and 2020[3] - The proportion of companies expecting losses is 42%, the highest since 2010, indicating an accelerated release of loss risks[3] Sector Analysis - The pre-positive performance rates for major sectors are as follows: Non-bank financials (83%), Non-ferrous metals (74%), Electronics (61%), Agriculture (56%), and Automotive (52%)[3] - The disclosure rates for major indices are: SSE 50 (24%), CSI 300 (28%), CSI 1000 (28%), STAR Market 50 (10%), and ChiNext Index (14%) with corresponding pre-positive rates of 82%, 71%, 55%, 80%, and 93% respectively[3] Profitability Outlook - A-share profitability is expected to gradually improve due to low base effects and supply contraction, with a projected growth rate of +6.8% in Q1 2025, marking a transition from negative to positive growth[4] - Forecasts for A-share net profit growth in Q2 to Q4 2025 (excluding financials and major oil companies) are 15.0%, 18.1%, and 25.4% based on 2015 data, and 15.3%, 18.7%, and 20.3% based on 2019 data[4] Industry-Specific Predictions - Industries expected to maintain good growth or recover from the bottom include: pig farming, pet food, automotive parts, home appliances, bicycles, light consumer goods, pharmaceuticals, non-bank financials, electronics, and renewable energy[5] - The gaming industry is also projected to continue its upward trend, while sectors like real estate and steel are still facing challenges[5] Risk Considerations - The current performance forecasts do not fully represent the overall industry situation, and discrepancies may exist between analyst predictions and actual company performance[5]