事件：圆通速递2025H1 实现营业收入358.83 亿元，同比+10.19%，归母净利润18.31亿元，同 比-7.90%；2025Q2 营业收入188.23 亿元，同比+9.84%，归母净利润9.74亿元，同比-6.76%，其中快递 净利润10.38 亿元，同比-9.07%。 Q2 业务量增速亮眼，份额保持提升，资本开支增长匹配其竞争实力。2025Q2 公司完成件量80.84 亿 件，同比增长21.84%，市场份额达到16.0%，同比提升0.6pcts；单票快递收入2.12 元，同比下降0.14 元 （或-6.2%）。公司坚持积极的竞争策略，依靠综合服务能力，业务量增速在"通达系"中表现突出。 25H1 公司资本开支44.3亿元，同比+64%，产能投放增速较快，匹配不断增长的实力和相对积极的竞争 策略。 坚持做好成本管控，公司AI+智能化水平行业领先。2025Q2 圆通单票核心成本0.59元，同比下降0.07 元 （或-9.2%），其中单票运输成本0.34 元，同比下降0.05 元（或-12.8%）；单票中心操作成本0.25 元， 同比下降0.02 元（或-3.8%）；单票费用0.05元，同比下降0.01 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company demonstrates strong profitability in a competitive environment, with expected earnings elasticity due to anti-competitive policies being implemented across the industry [6][8] - The company achieved a revenue of 35.883 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.19%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.831 billion yuan, down 7.90% year-on-year [8] - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the nationwide rollout of anti-competitive measures, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 4.571 billion, 5.835 billion, and 6.695 billion yuan respectively, reflecting growth rates of 13.93%, 27.64%, and 14.73% [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue forecast for 2023 is 57.684 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.74%, increasing to 69.033 billion yuan in 2024 with a growth rate of 19.67% [7] - The company's net profit for 2023 is projected at 3.723 billion yuan, with a decline of 5.03%, followed by an increase to 4.012 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth of 7.78% [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 1.09 yuan in 2023 to 1.34 yuan in 2025, with a corresponding increase in return on equity (ROE) from 12.93% to 13.08% [7][9] Market Position and Strategy - The company maintained a market share of 16.0% in Q2 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 0.6 percentage points, and a significant volume growth of 21.84% [8] - The company has increased its capital expenditure to 4.43 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 64% increase year-on-year, to support its competitive strategy [8] - The company is leveraging AI and smart technologies to enhance operational efficiency, with a notable reduction in core costs per package [8]

一季度，全省社会消费品零售总额10172.8亿元，同比增长5.6%，比上年全年提高0.6个百分点。按经营单位所在地分，城镇消费品零售额增长5.5%；乡村消 费品零售额增长6.0%。按消费类型分，餐饮收入增长5.7%；商品零售增长5.6%。实物商品网上零售额1487.1亿元，增长6.1%。 "从一季度的数据来看，山东消费市场呈现'稳中提质、场景创新'的鲜明特征，其中智慧多元化消费生活场景成为核心驱动力。这一现象背后，是政策引 导、技术赋能与消费提质的深度融合。"山东大学经济学院教授盖骁敏向记者说到，一季度，山东深入实施提振消费行动，升级商品消费、提质服务消费、 培育新型消费、创新消费场景"四措并举"，举办"迎新春消费季""春季换新快乐购"等系列活动，使得全省消费更加活跃、稳步提升。 齐鲁晚报·齐鲁壹点 李殷婷 4月23日，山东发布2025年一季度山东省经济社会运行情况。 盖骁敏分析，从去年"926"会议后，山东积极把促消费和惠民生结合起来，促进中低收入群体增收，提升消费结构，培育新型消费业态。山东消费市场的 "智慧化转身"，既是政策引导的结果，也是技术革命与消费提质的必然产物。在今年3月，山东印发的《山东省20 ...