摩根大通给予闪迪"中性"评级，目标价为235美元。该机构认为，尽管闪迪在AI驱动需求与合资成本优势下正处利润高峰，但这更多反映行业周期 性景气，而非结构性改善。 据追风交易台，摩根大通分析师Harlan Sur在12月8日发布的首次覆盖报告中表示，公司的长期盈利能力面临双重制约：一是在快速增长的AI存储 市场中份额仅2-3%，处于跟随地位；二是行业"繁荣-萧条"周期预计将从2027年后重现，随着新产能释放，当前供不应求的局面与高定价能力将逐 渐消退。 报告指出，考虑到闪迪股价今年至今已上涨超过500%，当前的风险与潜在回报已基本匹配。即便预计2025-2026年收入增长显著，盈利与现金流 亦大幅提升，这体现的是行业上行阶段的周期性高点，未来或将随供需平衡转向而逐步回归至长期均衡水平。因此，短期超额利润难以支撑长期 估值提升，可能重回历史性的"繁荣-萧条"周期模式。 AI存储超级周期中的相对弱势 摩根大通指出，闪迪在快速增长的企业级SSD市场中处于相对弱势地位。尽管企业级SSD市场预计将以35%的复合年增长率增长，到2027年达到 约450亿美元规模，但闪迪在该领域的全球市场份额仅为2-3%，远低于其在整体NA ...

Summary of Conference Call on AI Storage "Super Cycle" Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the storage industry, particularly focusing on the impact of AI demand on the storage market, leading to a "super cycle" in storage products [1][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **AI Demand as a Driving Force**: AI demand is identified as the primary driver of the current storage super cycle, significantly surpassing the effects of cyclical supply-demand mismatches. The collaboration between South Korean companies Samsung and SK Hynix with OpenAI is expected to generate a demand for HBM wafers that exceeds current global production capacity by more than double [1][2][4]. - **Shift in Production Focus**: Overseas storage manufacturers are reallocating production capacity towards AI-related products, resulting in a reduction of capacity for traditional consumer embedded products, which in turn is causing price increases [1][4]. - **Price Increases**: The NAND Flash and DRAM market price indices have risen by approximately 5% and nearly 20% respectively in Q3 of this year. Several manufacturers have announced price hikes, with NAND Flash prices expected to increase by 5%-10% in Q4 2025 [1][5]. - **Impact on A-Share Companies**: A-share companies related to the storage sector are expected to benefit from the storage super cycle. Even companies with minimal AI business exposure will see price increases in niche storage products, following the trends in bulk products [1][6]. - **Emerging Opportunities for Domestic Manufacturers**: As international manufacturers exit the consumer market, domestic storage companies are poised to capture opportunities in the embedded storage sector. Companies like Jiangbolong and Baiwei have successfully integrated their products with leading smartphone brands such as OPPO and vivo [1][8]. - **Enterprise Storage Demand Growth**: The demand for enterprise-level storage is on the rise, particularly from major internet companies. It is anticipated that by 2026, the localization rate of domestic modules will significantly increase, with enterprise business revenues expected to double [3][9]. - **Future Prospects for Zhao Yi Company**: Zhao Yi Company, focused on storage, is benefiting from price increases in Chengdu and has unique customization capabilities. The company is expected to have significant collaborations in the near future, particularly in 3D facial recognition technology [3][10]. Additional Important Insights - **Consumer Market Performance**: Domestic manufacturers have not performed strongly in the consumer market, as they have shifted focus to areas like 3D parking, which has seen robust demand [7]. - **Module Manufacturers' Development**: Companies like Jiangbolong and Baiwei are focusing on enterprise storage, with Jiangbolong establishing strong partnerships to ensure stable wafer supply [11]. - **Price Trends Forecast**: The storage industry is expected to see price increases at least until Q2 2026, driven by both growth and cyclical factors, indicating a continued opportunity in the Chengdu sector [13].