凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）在长达近十年的等待后，终于赢得了特朗普的美联储主席提名。 然而，这位新掌门人将很快迎来首个现实检验：他承诺的"降息、缩表与制度改革"，是否具备真正的执 行空间。 沃什在竞逐过程中强调"美联储需要体制性转向"（regime change）：主张在控制通胀的同时，通过缩减 资产负债表和推动结构性改革，为更低利率创造条件。 但现实环境并不宽松。 市场定价先行：短期不押注降息 在去年年底三次降息后，美联储于2026年1月按下了暂停键。 面对顽固的通胀、企稳的劳动力市场以及对2026年更强劲增长的预期，市场情绪已发生逆转。 Rabobank宏观策略师Stefan Koopman指出： "这是一个既显得强硬、又能为未来降息提供掩护的方案。" 市场担心，如果通胀压力未明显回落，"降息+缩表"可能反而收紧金融条件，削弱政策效果。而沃什 的"三板斧"能否落地，不仅取决于他的意愿，更取决于宏观数据的配合。 AI生产率假设，成为关键前提 沃什为其政策框架提供的核心支撑，是对AI驱动生产率提升的判断。 他在11月《华尔街日报》的一篇评论文章中详细阐述了他的方针： 利率市场的态度更为谨慎，交易员们目 ...

Core Viewpoint - Rising electricity costs are becoming a central issue in the U.S. political agenda, surpassing other types of inflation, with data centers being a focal point of criticism from both political parties [3][4]. Group 1: Electricity Cost Trends - Electricity costs in the U.S. increased by 6.7% year-over-year in December, with a cumulative rise of approximately 38% since 2020, while overall consumer prices only rose by 2.7% during the same period [4]. - In the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions, cumulative bill inflation reached 29% over the past three years, significantly higher than the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [9]. - Factors contributing to rising electricity costs include aging infrastructure, natural disasters, state renewable energy initiatives, and fluctuations in fuel costs [5]. Group 2: Political Implications - The issue of rising electricity prices is expected to be a key topic in the upcoming gubernatorial elections across 36 states, with many public utility commissions facing elections this year [6]. - Political pressure is mounting in various states, with governors and senators expressing concerns about the impact of rising electricity costs on households, particularly in relation to large data centers [5][8]. - High-profile political figures, including former President Trump, are leveraging the electricity cost issue to appeal to voters, emphasizing the responsibility of large tech companies to bear the costs associated with their energy consumption [4][8]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - Goldman Sachs suggests that investors should hedge against the "politicization of AI" risk, as concerns about data center energy consumption are rising among policymakers [11][12]. - The firm identifies three main concerns regarding investments in data centers: the substantial cash flow invested in infrastructure, the accuracy of measuring demand for data center capacity, and potential regulatory controls introduced by midterm elections [11]. - Goldman Sachs recommends specific trading strategies, including going long on non-tech companies that improve productivity through AI, and hedging against volatility related to the political discourse surrounding AI [12].

Core Viewpoint - Rising electricity costs are becoming a central issue in the U.S. political agenda, surpassing other types of inflation, with data centers being heavily criticized for their significant energy consumption [1][2]. Group 1: Political Implications - The Trump administration is actively engaging with state governors to address rising electricity prices, pushing for emergency power auctions and requiring large tech companies to either self-supply electricity or bear the costs of new power plants [1][2]. - Electricity costs in the U.S. increased by 6.7% year-over-year as of December, with a cumulative rise of approximately 38% since 2020, while overall consumer prices rose only 2.7% during the same period [2]. - The political pressure surrounding electricity prices is evident, with various state governors expressing concerns about the impact of rising costs on consumers and the need for regulatory scrutiny of utility companies [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The increase in electricity prices is attributed to multiple factors, including aging infrastructure, natural disasters, state renewable energy initiatives, and fluctuations in fuel costs [3][8]. - The demand for electricity is shifting due to electrification, the return of manufacturing, and the retirement of coal plants, which is tightening regional electricity markets and increasing costs passed on to consumers [8][9]. - Goldman Sachs suggests that investors should hedge against the political risks associated with AI and data centers, as policymakers are increasingly vocal about the energy consumption of data centers [2][10]. Group 3: Industry Response - Data centers are being labeled as the scapegoat for rising electricity costs, leading to debates about cost allocation between residential consumers and large commercial clients [6][12]. - Goldman Sachs has identified three primary concerns regarding data centers: the substantial cash flow investments in infrastructure, the accuracy of measuring capacity demand, and the potential regulatory controls that may arise from the upcoming midterm elections [11][12]. - The firm recommends several trading strategies to mitigate risks associated with the political landscape, including investing in non-tech companies that enhance productivity through AI and hedging against volatility in AI-related stocks [11][12].