亚洲协会 2026年是"十五五"开局之年，即将召开的全国两会备受各界关注。 政策研究所报道截图 洲协会政策研究所报道截图 报告还聚焦多部法律草案审议，生态环境法典、民族团结进步促进法、国家发展规划法等多部法律的草案将提请审 议。 亚 美国知名财经网站Investinglive重点新一年度政府工作报告，该报告通常会设定年度主要目标和政策任务，并最清晰 地传递出中央政府的宏观政策取向。 总部位于美国的亚洲协会政策研究所近日发表题为《2026年中国"两会"值得关注的内容》的文章。报道称，中国"两 会"即将召开。来自全国各地的数千名代表将齐聚北京，参加中国政治日历上最重要的活动之一。今年尤为重要，因 为政府不仅将宣布年度经济目标，全国人代会将审查"十五五"规划纲要草案，概述2026-2030年的政策目标。 亚洲协会政策研究所报道截图 文章列出了几大关注点，包括中国今年经济以多快的速度增长？新旧动能转换的节奏如何？哪些战略性新兴产业将 获得政策扶持？ 文章分析认为，在今年两会期间，讨论将突出以下重点：以自主创新驱动高质量发展；壮大实体经济构建现代产业 体系；扩大内需；深化制度改革。这些目标与更强调以人民为中心的社会发展 ...

西非经济门户网2月11日报道，科特迪瓦日前在南非开普敦举行的2026年矿业投资论坛上举办专场 推介会，向百余位国际投资者展示其矿业十年发展成就与改革进展。科矿业与地质总局局长库利巴利表 示，过去十年科特迪瓦矿业累计吸引投资超2万亿西非法郎，连续三年被弗雷泽研究所评为西非第一、 非洲前十大最具吸引力矿业投资目的地。科方重点推介其政治稳定、安全指数优越、基础设施完善及地 质潜力突出等优势，目前全国运营19座矿山，涵盖金、锰、铝土矿、镍等矿种，并发现锂、钴、铜、钻 石等多种战略资源。科方正推进矿业法典修订、矿籍管理现代化、加入"采掘业透明度倡议"及"金伯利 进程"等制度改革，持续优化投资环境。科特迪瓦代表团表示，该国已成为稳定、透明、具有竞争力的 矿业投资目的地，诚邀国际伙伴共建可持续合作与共赢发展。 （原标题：科特迪瓦在南非矿业投资论坛期间召开专场矿业投资推介会） ...

凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）在长达近十年的等待后，终于赢得了特朗普的美联储主席提名。 然而，这位新掌门人将很快迎来首个现实检验：他承诺的"降息、缩表与制度改革"，是否具备真正的执 行空间。 沃什在竞逐过程中强调"美联储需要体制性转向"（regime change）：主张在控制通胀的同时，通过缩减 资产负债表和推动结构性改革，为更低利率创造条件。 但现实环境并不宽松。 市场定价先行：短期不押注降息 在去年年底三次降息后，美联储于2026年1月按下了暂停键。 面对顽固的通胀、企稳的劳动力市场以及对2026年更强劲增长的预期，市场情绪已发生逆转。 Rabobank宏观策略师Stefan Koopman指出： "这是一个既显得强硬、又能为未来降息提供掩护的方案。" 市场担心，如果通胀压力未明显回落，"降息+缩表"可能反而收紧金融条件，削弱政策效果。而沃什 的"三板斧"能否落地，不仅取决于他的意愿，更取决于宏观数据的配合。 AI生产率假设，成为关键前提 沃什为其政策框架提供的核心支撑，是对AI驱动生产率提升的判断。 他在11月《华尔街日报》的一篇评论文章中详细阐述了他的方针： 利率市场的态度更为谨慎，交易员们目 ...

Group 1: Market Outlook - The core logic of asset allocation in China is shifting from "total game" to "structural evolution" over the next one to three years, with equity assets remaining the main focus for the medium to long term [1] - The bond market may present phase-specific allocation opportunities due to intertwined expectations of easing and risk aversion [1] Group 2: Institutional Reforms and Asset Revaluation - Continuous institutional reforms in the capital market over the past two years are changing the underlying logic of asset pricing in China, emphasizing investment returns over mere financing [2] - The establishment of a "lower limit" in market fluctuations is crucial for attracting long-term capital, as concerns over extreme drawdowns have eased [2] Group 3: Equity Assets - Equity assets are viewed positively, with technology remaining a key focus, although there is increasing divergence in rhythm and structure among economists [3] - The strategy of "dividend base and technology for elasticity" is recommended as the Chinese economy transitions [3] - Caution is advised regarding valuation and industry realization capabilities, as some segments within technology have become crowded [3] Group 4: Commodity Market - The commodity market is expected to experience both volatility and opportunities, with a shift from financial attributes to supply-demand logic [4] - Gold remains a safe-haven asset, while industrial metals and new energy products are gaining traction, indicating a transition in market dynamics [4] Group 5: Bond Market - The bond market is currently viewed with caution, but there are still potential opportunities, especially if monetary policy shifts unexpectedly [6] - Bonds are seen as a defensive and balancing tool within asset portfolios rather than a core offensive strategy [6] Group 6: Currency and Cross-Border Allocation - The stability and gradual appreciation potential of the RMB are enhancing the international attractiveness of Chinese assets [7] - A shift in resident asset allocation from a "721" model (real estate and fixed income) to a "442" structure (40% stable assets, 40% equity, 20% commodities) is anticipated [7] - Dynamic adjustment capabilities in asset allocation will be crucial in a volatile environment, with recommendations for quarterly rebalancing strategies [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the integration of policies and innovations to enhance trade facilitation and optimize the business environment in China, particularly through the establishment of free trade ports and the alignment of financial regulations with international standards [2][6]. - The implementation of a comprehensive system of innovation is aimed at accelerating the flow of people, logistics, and capital, transforming the vision of "repairing global aircraft in the free trade port" into reality [2]. - The development of digital finance, offshore finance, and green finance is being promoted in the Shanghai Lingang New Area, ensuring financial security through "technology + system" innovations [2][6]. Group 2 - The province's reinvestment scale in profits ranks among the top in the country, reflecting a commitment to deepening institutional reforms and establishing a high-level open economic system [3]. - The focus on industrial upgrading is characterized by a dual empowerment strategy that combines "bringing in" and "going out," enhancing the quality of supply through technological advancements [3]. - The integration of culture, tourism, and health care is being pursued to strengthen the core of industries and secure a more proactive position in the global value chain [4]. Group 3 - The establishment of a global element docking platform aims to create a more vibrant open ecosystem, facilitating a shift from "buying globally" to "selling globally" [4]. - The "soft service" industry is being developed to enhance the overall service capabilities within the economy, contributing to a more dynamic industrial landscape [5]. - The construction of a favorable ecosystem is being prioritized to expand new dimensions of openness, with a focus on efficient order fulfillment and production processes [5].

Core Insights - The Hong Kong capital market is set for a full recovery in 2025, with total IPO fundraising exceeding HKD 285.8 billion, reclaiming its position as the leading global exchange, indicating a significant rebound in Hong Kong's attractiveness as an international financial center [1][2] Group 1: IPO Market Performance - In 2025, a total of 119 companies went public in Hong Kong, representing a 63% increase from the previous year, with total fundraising amounting to HKD 285.8 billion, a staggering 2.25 times increase year-on-year [2] - The top ten IPOs of the year included eight companies that raised over HKD 10 billion, with CATL leading at HKD 41.0 billion and Zijin Mining at HKD 42.8 billion, making them the largest and second-largest IPOs globally [2] - A-share companies played a crucial role in the Hong Kong IPO market, with 19 A-share firms raising approximately HKD 140 billion, nearly half of the total IPO fundraising in Hong Kong [2] Group 2: Market Drivers - The surge in IPO activity is driven by the concentrated listing of Chinese tech companies, a wave of A-share companies listing in Hong Kong, and a significant improvement in market liquidity [1][2] - The introduction of the "Specialized Technology Company Fast Track" service and the ongoing appeal of Listing Rules Chapter 18A and Chapter 18C have opened up listing avenues for unprofitable biotech and specialized tech companies [1][3] Group 3: Institutional Reforms - Continuous institutional innovations have been pivotal for the strong performance of the Hong Kong stock market, including the introduction of Chapter 18A in April 2018, allowing unprofitable biotech companies to apply for listings [3] - By the end of 2025, 88 biotech and specialized tech companies had listed under these new rules, with 16 companies listing in 2025 alone [3] - The average daily trading volume in the first 11 months of 2025 was HKD 255.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of approximately 95%, enhancing the attractiveness of Hong Kong for international capital [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - Deloitte forecasts that with over 300 listing applications, the Hong Kong IPO market could see fundraising of at least HKD 300 billion in 2026, with around 160 new stocks expected to be issued [5] - Factors such as potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, increased support for mainland Chinese companies, and ongoing capital market reforms in Hong Kong are expected to attract more large-scale IPOs [5]

Group 1 - The relationship between the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and former President Trump has been tense due to differing economic policies, with Trump advocating for interest rate cuts while Powell focuses on long-term economic stability [1][5] - China has significantly reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, selling $11.8 billion, bringing its holdings to the lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis, which has triggered strong market reactions [3][12] - Other countries, including Canada, Luxembourg, and the Cayman Islands, have also begun to reduce their U.S. Treasury holdings, while Japan, the UK, Belgium, and France have increased their holdings, with Japan's increase marking the highest level since July 2022 [3][12] Group 2 - The U.S. government is concerned about the stability of the Treasury market, as it is crucial for the economy, and is preparing for a potential change in the Federal Reserve leadership to align with Trump's economic policies [5][13] - The U.S. debt has surged from $27 trillion in 2020 to $38.34 trillion, with annual interest payments exceeding $1.2 trillion, which poses a significant challenge for fiscal policy [6][7] - Elon Musk has warned that without leveraging AI and robotics to address the debt crisis, the U.S. economy may face collapse, highlighting the need for a balance between technological innovation and fiscal discipline [6][7] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve has announced a resumption of bond purchases to stabilize the market, particularly focusing on short-term Treasury bonds, but this action may not address the underlying concerns regarding U.S. debt [9][12] - The recent sell-off of U.S. Treasury bonds indicates a growing unease in the international community regarding U.S. debt, suggesting a decline in the attractiveness of dollar assets [12][13] - The ability of the U.S. to resolve its debt crisis will depend on finding genuine economic growth drivers rather than relying solely on external support or policy easing [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Su Shi's proposal to abolish the "grain transportation tax," highlighting the detrimental effects of this tax on both farmers and merchants, and advocating for a legal framework that promotes economic circulation and benefits the populace [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Economic Impact - Su Shi argues that the grain transportation tax leads to a decrease in grain trade, harming both farmers and merchants, as evidenced by his observations of farmers unable to cover basic living expenses despite abundant harvests [1] - He notes that wealthy individuals hoard grain, hoping for famine to drive prices up, which exacerbates the suffering of the poor [1] Policy Recommendations - Su Shi suggests that the ideal governance approach should involve abolishing the grain transportation tax to allow market forces to regulate grain prices naturally, benefiting both farmers and merchants [1] - He emphasizes the need for a legal framework that fosters resource optimization and economic vitality, moving from temporary material redistribution to sustainable institutional reform [1] Philosophical Insights - The core philosophy presented by Su Shi is encapsulated in the idea of "using law to benefit people," which contrasts with the unsustainable model of material aid [1] - He identifies the flaws in the current system as being rooted in high transaction costs within the grain supply chain, advocating for institutional reforms to lower these costs and enhance economic flow [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the revival of a stalled project by Dongying Keyuan New Materials Co., Ltd. due to the issuance of a construction permit, which allows the company to proceed with its new production facility for amino acid food additives. Group 1: Company Situation - Dongying Keyuan New Materials Co., Ltd. has received a construction permit for its new project, which aims to produce 4,500 tons of amino acid food additives annually [1]. - The company invested in 30 acres of idle land adjacent to its old factory to facilitate the new project, allowing for shared utilities and reduced investment costs [1]. - The project faced delays due to land ownership issues, as the land was purchased under a subsidiary's name, complicating the approval process [1]. Group 2: Policy Changes - Dongying City is addressing the challenges faced by companies like Keyuan by reforming land leasing policies, transitioning from a reliance on land sales to becoming an "industry cultivator" [2]. - A new implementation plan for industrial project land leasing will allow both landowners and tenants to apply for project approvals, effectively removing previous restrictions [2]. - The city has established clear guidelines for rental contracts to mitigate potential disputes and ensure investment security [2]. Group 3: Regulatory Improvements - Two new mechanisms have been introduced to streamline the approval process: joint applications by landlords and tenants, and government oversight throughout all project phases [3]. - The reform has significantly reduced the number of required procedures from 19 to a single application form, cutting processing time by over 80% [3]. - Keyuan New Materials received its construction permit on the same day it submitted complete materials, enabling the company to commence construction and anticipate production within four to five months [3].

Group 1 - The article suggests that a recovery trend may be emerging in the macroeconomic environment, indicating a potential wealth reshuffling opportunity that occurs approximately every ten years [1][11]. - It emphasizes the importance of the macroeconomic environment in determining individual investment success, highlighting that ordinary investors can benefit from aligning with prevailing trends [1][3]. - The current international environment is described as tense, which, while seemingly negative, may also signal opportunities for economic intervention and recovery [2][3]. Group 2 - Governments typically respond to economic downturns with intervention strategies, which can create investment opportunities. These strategies include monetary policy adjustments, fiscal stimulus, and institutional reforms [3][4]. - The article notes that liquidity is crucial for market performance, with historical examples showing that increased liquidity often leads to rising asset valuations [3][6]. - The discussion includes the importance of institutional reforms in capital markets, suggesting that these reforms are necessary for a healthy market cycle and can lead to a more favorable investment environment [4][10]. Group 3 - The article identifies a third signal of a turning point: the potential for an industrial upgrade, particularly in the AI sector, which is expected to experience significant growth due to technological convergence [16][29]. - It highlights that the current technological revolution is unique because it involves multiple disruptive technologies maturing simultaneously, which could lead to substantial economic growth [18][19]. - Predictions indicate that if these technologies succeed, global GDP growth could double, with inflation potentially decreasing to zero or even negative levels [29][41]. Group 4 - The article stresses the need for investors to adapt their strategies in response to market changes, emphasizing that the market is not linear and can be influenced by various factors [46][48]. - It warns against the risks of holding a single type of asset in a volatile environment, suggesting that diversification is essential for managing risk [52][54]. - The article concludes by encouraging investors to prepare for upcoming market shifts and to consider joining membership programs that provide insights and strategies for navigating these changes [56][68].