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A股开盘速递 | 三大股指集体低开 贵金属板块表现活跃
智通财经网· 2025-04-21 01:46
Group 1 - A-shares opened lower with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.11% and the ChiNext Index down 0.16%, while the precious metals sector showed strong performance, and sectors like tourism, hotels, dairy, and education faced significant declines [1] - Shenwan Hongyuan predicts that the overall risk appetite for A-shares is expected to stabilize and recover, with a potential shift towards small-cap growth styles and an increasing weight of technology themes in the market [1] - The mid-term outlook suggests that the next offensive wave for A-shares may still be a structural rally in technology, with continued recommendations for domestic AI computing power and applications, embodied intelligence, and low-altitude economy [1] Group 2 - Industrial Securities indicates that the continuously improving economic fundamentals and timely responses to uncertainties will serve as a stabilizing anchor for the market, with a focus on domestic consumption and self-sufficiency as key themes [2] - The market is expected to be more self-reliant, with internal demand and self-sufficiency becoming focal points for economic momentum switching and short-term policy support [2] - Facing ongoing global trade negotiations, there is a need for preparedness against uncertainties, with a recommendation to tilt holdings towards low-volatility dividends and high-quality stocks [2] Group 3 - Dongfang Securities notes a short-term market adjustment with reduced trading volume, indicating a challenging environment for price movements, while emphasizing the importance of dividend stocks and the broader technology sector as key investment directions [3] - The bank sector's dividend attributes are highlighted, with policy easing potentially boosting retail credit demand, thus enhancing the investment value of bank stocks [3] - The market's inherent stability is gradually increasing with the influx of incremental capital, and there is a significant probability that the Shanghai Composite Index will continue to fill the "tariff gap" [3]
【申万宏源策略 | 一周回顾展望】磨底期的注意事项
申万宏源研究· 2025-04-21 01:13
Group 1 - The market is currently in a bottoming phase after a sharp rebound, and further consolidation is expected as the market digests various factors including tariff impacts and potential future disturbances in the financial and technology sectors between China and the US [1][2][3] - The market's response to fundamental pressures has largely been realized, but the time frame for recovery remains insufficient. The market's pessimistic expectations regarding tariffs were overly negative, leading to a significant adjustment on April 7, bringing it back to a long-term high-value area [1][2] - Key factors that need to be digested during the bottoming phase include the gradual emergence of tariff impacts, the potential for further disturbances in US-China relations, and the need for a cohesive market consensus on consumption and technology as the main themes [1][2][3] Group 2 - The fundamental impact of tariffs is beginning to show in Q2, with manageable downward pressure expected, but further pressure is anticipated in Q3. This indicates a growing demand for policy support to stabilize market expectations [2][3] - The market's expectations for stable growth in Q2 will require specific policy conditions, including the need for timely policy adjustments, the effective use of accumulated fiscal resources, and accelerated government bond issuance in May and June [2][3] Group 3 - The market is expected to face increasing downward pressure in Q3, necessitating resource reserves for stabilizing growth. If policy measures align with expectations, overall market sentiment may remain stable; otherwise, combined with fundamental pressures, market adjustment risks could increase [3] - The bottoming phase is characterized by a focus on defensive assets, which may yield absolute and relative returns, while the rebound phase has seen a preference for offensive assets like semiconductors and new consumption [4][5] Group 4 - The mid-term outlook for A-shares suggests a return to an upward trend, likely contingent on the re-establishment of consensus around technology industry trends. Continued recommendations include investments in domestic AI computing and applications, embodied intelligence, and low-altitude economy [4][5] - The market is expected to see a structural rally in technology, with a focus on AI-related sectors as catalysts for future growth, particularly in internet platforms and foundational AI model breakthroughs [5] Group 5 - The expansion of profit effects across various sectors is evident, with banking and food & beverage sectors showing strong performance, while agriculture and defense sectors are experiencing contraction [8] - The overall market sentiment is reflected in the performance metrics, with a notable focus on sectors like public utilities and real estate, which are continuing to expand despite broader market challenges [8]