更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 2026:资本市场有哪些"预期差"值得重视?20260104 线 澳门赌场 澳门娱乐平台登录 » 大发 | 店民对俄可预期较低但逐步试水的心情 » | 亚洲 » | 亚洲 » | 亚洲 » | 亚洲 » | 亚洲 » | 亚 斯 | 维持,预计呈现震荡上行态势,主题轮动较换,关注机器人、核电等细分 领域。 童 匆 Q&A 节日期间全球地缘政治和国内政策信号对市场的影响如何? 节日期间,全球地缘政治出现了明显波动,特别是美国强行控制委内瑞拉总统马 杜罗以及伊朗国内的抗议事件。这些事件短期内可能会对"东升西降"的趋势产 生犹动,但从中期来看,对中国和俄罗斯在南美的地缘布局是利好的。委内瑞拉 政权虽然经济状况不佳,但对国内军队和反对派的控制力较强,因此即使马杜罗 被抓捕,其政权依然稳固。特朗普政府采取行动多为选举利益,不愿承担长期成 本,因此其政策往往虎头蛇尾,不会对全球原油价格产生重大影响。 国内方面, 新年贺词和《求是》杂志上的地产政策文章传递了重要信号。今年的新年贺词背 景从以往的库房变为万里长城,强调大国实力和科技突破,而非民生问题。这表 明政策更加 ...

在分析宏观趋势时，邵宇认为，出口展现了强大的韧性，在复杂国际环境下仍创下盈余纪录，为中国经济提供了坚实的外部支撑。展望未来，他提出中国经 济的长期发展空间将由两大关键因素定义：一是以新能源为代表的绿色转型，二是以科技突破为核心的新质生产力发展。 邵宇分析道，中国城市化进程仍有提升空间，预计到2035年达到峰值，这将结合新能源转型，为像安徽、合肥这样率先布局科技产业化的地区带来持续 的"腾挪空间"和发展机遇。他特别强调，在人口结构变化的背景下，应对未来劳动力与服务需求的技术创新，如人形机器人等领域，将孕育出巨大的市场潜 力。 12月29日，由凤凰网、剑南春联合主办的"万里同春·徽聚未来——2025安徽企业家思享荟"于合肥召开，旨在解析资本市场动态，助力企业财富增值与战略 布局，挖掘区域产业升级机遇，明晰投资方向。 复旦大学管理学院科创中心首席经济学家邵宇在主题为《新质生产力下产业机遇与投资破局》的演讲中，从结构视角分析了中国经济的现状与未来。他指 出，当前经济正处于深刻的转型期，呈现出显著的结构性分化特征。他以资本市场为例指出，代表前沿科技的GPU企业与传统房地产行业在市值、营收与员 工规模上对比鲜明，这反映了 ...

华中科技大学研 究生红色理论学讲团博士生讲师吴磊进行宣讲展示。主办方供图 "仅100万元预算，如何从头开始研发芯片？"面对华中科技大学研究生红色理论学讲团博士生讲师、计 算机科学与技术学院学生吴磊的提问，AI思索计算出的结论是"勉强满足前期探索，无法量产"。 然而，事实给出了截然不同的答案。2001年，彼时已是65岁的黄令仪加入龙芯研发团队时，项目启动经 费正是100万元。如今，从"龙芯1号"发展到"龙芯3号"，复兴号高铁、北斗卫星等大国重器都换上了中 国芯。 讲师团学生讲师刘一静进行宣讲展示。主办方供图 清华大学博士生 围绕纪念中国人民抗日战争暨世界反法西斯战争胜利80周年、纪念"一二·九"运动90周年及学习贯彻党 的二十届四中全会精神等重要主题，包括吴磊在内的全国96所高校122位选手来了一场"大比武"。在他 们的讲述中，一个个"大道理"被拆解成不同时代的鲜活故事，又有独特的青年视角，台下师生听得津津 有味。 活动现场，北京市社会科学院党组成员、副院长、北京市委讲师团团长肖峻峰点评说，"一群有理论基 础的年轻人参与到党的创新理论宣传宣讲工作中，他们的讲述向大家传达了新时代青年怎样看待社会， 怎样服务社会， ...

智通财经记者 | 杨志锦 智通财经编辑 | 王姝 2025年金融故事的起点不是1月1日，而是2024年9月24日。 当日国新办史无前例的在上午9时举行新闻发布会，央行行长潘功胜、金融监管总局局长李云泽、证监会主席吴清"金融三巨头"同时出席。因为发布会在股 市开盘之前召开，市场已嗅到了一丝不同寻常的信号。果不其然，一系列支持实体经济和金融市场的政策在当日发布。 上证指数时隔10年重返4000点，近期徘徊在3900点左右，截至12月23日，相比今年初上涨约17%，A股其他主要指数涨幅更大。放在全球来看，前述涨幅也 名列前茅。如果以去年9月24日以来的涨幅来看，A股主要指数可谓"冠绝全球"。 智通财经记者根据同花 中国央行还首次创设支持资本市场的货币政策工具。"通过这项工具所获取的资金只能用于投资股票市场。"潘功胜说，"只要这个事儿做得好，第一期5000 亿，还可以再来5000亿，甚至可以搞第三个5000亿。" 金融市场被彻底点燃。9月24日上证指数大涨4.15%重回2800点，人民币兑美元汇率升值逼近7，10年期国债收益率上行，市场将之称为"9·24行情"。股、 汇、债的同步反应显示市场对中国经济的信心显著增强。 ...

December 18, 2025 09:00 PM GMT China Equity Strategy | Asia Pacific A-Share Sentiment Marginally Up But May Not Sustain Market sentiment rose marginally on higher turnover. However, global market volatility and lackluster domestic macro could curb it. A more forceful fiscal pivot and further China technology breakthrough could lead to more sustainable sentiment pickup. A-share investor sentiment increased vs. previous cycle: Weighted MSASI increased 4ppt to 51% vs. the prior cutoff date (December 10), while ...

Economic Outlook - The central economic work conference indicates a tolerance for actual GDP growth rates, focusing on technological breakthroughs and supply-demand optimization, with nominal GDP growth expected to improve[1] - The economic target for 2026 is projected to be between 4.5% and 5%, with actual performance likely closer to the upper limit[2] Policy Direction - Emphasis on "quality" improvement over mere growth, with a focus on technological advancements and balanced supply-demand structures[2] - Anticipated price increases and improved corporate profits due to supply-demand structure optimization, benefiting industries related to reducing "involution" competition[2] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is expected to remain around 4%, with total local special bond issuance projected at approximately 4.4 to 4.5 trillion yuan[4] - The broad fiscal deficit rate is estimated to be around 8.1% for 2026, indicating no significant increase in fiscal strength[4] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will likely remain moderately loose, with potential for rate cuts, although the space for such actions is limited[5] - The focus will be on stabilizing growth and managing inflation, with flexible use of monetary tools to support demand and innovation[5] Technological Focus - The conference highlights the urgency of technological breakthroughs, particularly in AI and emerging industries, to foster new growth drivers[6] - Plans to establish international technology innovation centers in key regions like Beijing, Shanghai, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area[6]

川财证券首席经济学家、研究所所长 陈雳：在百年未有之大变局下，面对高度不确定的外部环境，我 们更需练好内功，加快实现国产自立与科技突破。资本市场通过"五篇大文章"，聚力支持新质生产力， 为其发展"再添一把火"。这不仅能为企业注入持续发展的资金活水，还能有助解决发展中的国家、行业 与企业面临的问题，最终实现多赢。 0:00 ...

Group 1 - The first mini robotic arm for shipbuilding in China was showcased, demonstrating advanced welding technology and meeting green construction requirements [2] - The mini robotic arm weighs less than 15 kg and can operate in hard-to-reach areas, enhancing efficiency and product quality in shipbuilding [2] Group 2 - A global breakthrough was achieved by a research team at Westlake University, successfully solving the challenge of close-range flight coordination between two drones [4] - The drones can perform precise operations, such as grabbing tools, with an accuracy of sub-centimeter [4] Group 3 - The first unit of China's largest gas-fired power plant, the Zhejiang Anji Power Plant, was officially put into operation, achieving a high efficiency of 64.15% [6][7] - This power plant is designed to respond accurately to peak and valley electricity demand, contributing to the stability of the East China power grid [7] Group 4 - The first offshore rocket recovery platform in China, named "Navigator," was successfully delivered, designed to create a stable and precise rocket recovery system [9] - The platform faces several technical challenges, including high-precision motion coordination and robust structural design to handle concentrated loads [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market continues to show strength, particularly in the technology sector, with significant movements in the Hang Seng Tech Index and the Hong Kong Large Cap 30 ETF, indicating positive investor sentiment and potential growth opportunities [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose over 2%, while the Hong Kong Large Cap 30 ETF (520560) saw an intraday increase of more than 1.2%, recovering above the 5-day moving average [1]. - The Hong Kong Large Cap 30 ETF has attracted a total of 30.68 million yuan in the past five days, reflecting strong capital inflow and positive outlook for the sector [1]. - Notable stock performances include Xiaomi Group up over 4%, Kuaishou up over 3%, and Alibaba and SMIC both rising over 2% [1]. Group 2: Dividend and Earnings Outlook - Major state-owned banks in China are initiating mid-term dividends, with a total payout of 204.657 billion yuan, accounting for nearly 80% of the total mid-term dividends from all listed banks [2]. - The upcoming earnings report from Alibaba is anticipated, with its Qianwen APP achieving over 10 million downloads in just one week, surpassing other AI applications [1][2]. - Analysts are optimistic about Alibaba's AI application strategy, predicting significant growth potential for the Qianwen APP within Alibaba's business ecosystem [1]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The current market environment suggests that a "barbell strategy" is optimal for investors, balancing between growth and dividend stocks, aligning with the "policy support + technological breakthrough" narrative [2]. - The valuation of the Hong Kong Large Cap 30 ETF is favorable, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 1.09, indicating a higher safety margin and potential for valuation recovery [2]. - The ETF provides a diversified exposure to core assets in the Hong Kong market, minimizing individual stock selection risks [4].

Summary of the 2026 China Equity Strategy Outlook Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese stock market** and its outlook for 2026, following a strong performance in 2025 where major indices like the MSCI China Index and Hang Seng Index rose over **30%** year-to-date [1][10][11]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Stability and Growth**: - 2026 is expected to be a year of stabilization after the high returns of 2025, with limited upside potential for indices and moderate earnings growth projected at **6%** [2][15]. - The MSCI China Index is forecasted to trade at a forward P/E ratio of **12-13x**, with a target of **90 points** for December 2026, indicating a **3%** upside from the current levels [2][15]. 2. **Valuation and Earnings Quality**: - The report highlights that the valuation re-rating has already occurred, with a **30%** increase in the past year, suggesting limited room for further upward revaluation [12][15]. - Concerns about the sustainability of corporate earnings are raised, as recent earnings reports show a slight deterioration in the number of companies exceeding expectations [11][15]. 3. **Macroeconomic Factors**: - The Chinese economy is expected to face ongoing deflationary pressures, with real GDP growth projected to slow to **4.8%** in 2026 [12][15]. - Global macroeconomic uncertainties, particularly regarding the U.S. economy, could impact China's growth trajectory [14][15]. 4. **Investment Strategy**: - A "barbell strategy" is recommended, favoring high-quality internet and technology leaders while underweighting sectors like real estate, consumer staples, and energy that are negatively impacted by macroeconomic conditions [3][30]. - Key trading ideas include focusing on stocks benefiting from the "anti-involution" policies and those included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect [3][31]. 5. **Liquidity and Capital Flows**: - The report anticipates continued net inflows into both A-shares and offshore markets, supported by policy measures aimed at stimulating consumption and managing real estate inventories [2][28]. Additional Important Insights - **Geopolitical Considerations**: The report notes that a stable geopolitical environment, particularly in U.S.-China relations, could positively influence market sentiment [22][25]. - **Sector Preferences**: There is a strong emphasis on investing in companies with robust fundamentals and growth prospects, particularly in technology and innovation sectors aligned with China's strategic planning [19][30]. - **Scenario Analysis**: The report outlines a wide range of potential outcomes for the Chinese stock market, with optimistic scenarios suggesting a **30%** upside and pessimistic scenarios indicating a potential **34%** decline [25][26]. Conclusion - The outlook for the Chinese stock market in 2026 is characterized by cautious optimism, with a focus on sustainable growth and selective investment strategies. The anticipated stabilization in market performance, combined with macroeconomic challenges, necessitates a strategic approach to capital allocation in the coming year [1][15][19].