广发证券 资深宏观分析师 贺骁束 hexiaoshu@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 国内经济数据边际企稳。9月30日公布的PMI录得49.8，高于8月的49.4。结合前期公布的EPMI、 BCI数据，均指向9月经济呈小幅秋旺的特征，即经济在经历7-8月放缓后再度企稳。 第二， 外汇储备和黄金储备继续上升。国家外汇管理局10月7日公布的数据显示，截止9月末中国外汇储备规 模为33387亿美元，较8月末环比上升165亿美元。这一数据今年7月短暂环比负增长，8月、9月则连续上 升。另据央行统计数据，9月末央行黄金储备达7406万盎司，环比8月增加4万盎司，为连续11个月增持黄 金。 第三， 央行加量续作逆回购维护流动性稳定。央行9月30日公告称，10月9日将以固定数量、利率招标、多 重价位中标方式开展11000亿元买断式逆回购操作。考虑到10月9日将有8000亿到期，央行属加量续作，我 们理解此次操作是旨在维护节后流动性合理充裕，稳定市场预期 。 第四， 假期居民出行需求回暖。交通运输部口径，9月30日-10月6日，全社会跨区域人员流动量（日均）达 2.95亿人，相较去年黄金周同比增长6.1 ...

恒生指数单日涨幅达1.61%，冲破27000点关口，创下年内新高；恒生科技指数更是飙升至3.36%，半导体龙头中芯国际股价暴涨12.7%， 华虹半导体跟涨7.13%，黄金、铜价同步冲上热搜。 以往游资短炒的套路，正被外资长线布局的资本暗流取代。 2010年以来港股国庆期间上涨概率高达86.7%，节后首日回调概率超过50%。 此次外资的买入策略与往年有本质区别。 美联储10月降息概率已达100%，12月再降概率88%，这意味着全球流动性宽松周期将持续至少半年。 关键的是，此轮港股大涨发生在沪股通休市期间，完全是外资主动扫货，而非等待A股开盘后抛售套利。 从资金属性看，北向资金近期单周净流入超400亿元，且集中在半导体、新能源等产业趋势明确的领域，而非短期消息催化的题材股。 贝莱德、高盛等机构近期将中国股票评级上调至"超配"，理由是中美利差收窄与估值洼地效应。 2020年消费股抱团行情依赖货币宽松，2022年新能源炒作依赖政策补贴，而当前半导体和有色板块的驱动力来自技术突破和全球供需错配，其持续性 可能跨越多个季度。 华泰证券指出，若市场本身处于上升趋势中，国庆"日历效应"会更显著，而当前科技与资源板块正是趋势性 ...

Core Insights - The evolution of logistics from ancient times to the present showcases a significant transformation in delivery efficiency and technology [1][2][3][4][5] Group 1: Historical Context - The traditional logistics system in ancient China was characterized by inefficiency, with long delivery times and high resource consumption, as illustrated by the example of sending lychees from Lingnan to Chang'an [1] - Historical records indicate that the official courier system required extensive time and resources, with the journey from Chang'an to Lingnan taking 22 days through 138 relay stations [2] Group 2: Technological Advancements - The introduction of automated sorting systems in logistics, starting with the "Double Eleven" event in 2009, significantly increased processing capabilities, allowing for a leap from 8,000 to 32,000 packages per day [3] - The current logistics landscape features advanced technologies such as AI and robotics, exemplified by the "Hive Intelligent Warehouse" in Shanghai, which processes packages at a speed of 0.8 seconds per item [4] Group 3: Economic Impact - The express delivery industry has become a crucial driver of economic growth, with a 10% increase in the sector correlating to a 1.2% rise in regional GDP [5] - The logistics sector's transformation reflects a broader shift from an agricultural civilization to a digital economy, with modern delivery systems enabling rapid distribution of goods across vast distances [5]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi's annual speech by CEO Lei Jun is scheduled for September 25, focusing on the theme of "Change" and highlighting innovations such as the Xiaomi Ring chip and advancements in Xiaomi's automotive endeavors [1][6]. Group 1: Annual Speech Highlights - The annual speech is anticipated to showcase Xiaomi's growth and innovations over the past five years, with previous themes reflecting the company's journey and challenges [5][6]. - This year's theme, "Change," suggests a focus on breakthrough technologies, particularly the Xiaomi Ring chip and developments in the automotive sector [6][10]. Group 2: Xiaomi 17 Series Features - The Xiaomi 17 series will feature the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen5 processor, utilizing TSMC's latest 3nm technology, resulting in improved performance and reduced power consumption [10]. - The camera system in the Pro Max model includes a 50MP main sensor, a 17mm ultra-wide lens, and a 115mm periscope lens with 5x optical zoom, catering to photography enthusiasts [10]. - The design of the Xiaomi 17 series has reverted to flat screens, with the standard and Pro versions featuring 6.3-inch 1.5K displays, while the Pro Max boasts a 6.73-inch 2K display, all supporting 120Hz LTPO adaptive refresh rates [12].

Core Viewpoint - Guojin Securities indicates that the third round of revaluation for A-shares is approaching, driven by fundamental factors rather than short-term market reactions [1] Investment Recommendations - Existing investors should not rush to exit the market as the current rise is supported by global liquidity, domestic valuation recovery, and short-term catalysts [1] - New investors are advised to remain patient and wait for better entry points, as future market performance will rely more on fundamental improvements [1] - There is no need to panic in the face of market declines, as systemic risks are being resolved and the market bottom is rising with long-term capital entering [1] Investment Directions - Focus on three types of assets: high dividend stocks, physical assets, and gold to hedge against global stagflation uncertainties [1] - Pay attention to the technology sector to capture hopes of breaking stagnation [1] - Look for structural opportunities in China's transformation, particularly in high-quality companies in overseas expansion, industrial upgrading, and lower-tier consumption [1]

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund, specifically the Jiaoyin State-Owned Enterprise Reform Flexible Allocation Mixed A Fund (519756), reported a profit of 115 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.1026 yuan. The fund's net value growth rate was 6.38%, and its total size reached 2.133 billion yuan by the end of the first half of the year [2]. Fund Performance - As of September 3, the fund's unit net value was 1.863 yuan. The fund manager, Shen Nan, has managed three funds that have all yielded positive returns over the past year. The highest return among these is from the Jiaoyin Ruisi Mixed (LOF) at 50.08%, while the Jiaoyin State-Owned Enterprise Reform Flexible Allocation Mixed A Fund recorded a return of 31.55% [2][5]. - The fund's performance over different time frames includes a 4.12% growth rate over the last three months, 9.79% over the last six months, and 31.55% over the last year, ranking it 832/880, 695/880, and 557/880 respectively among comparable funds [5]. Valuation Metrics - As of June 30, 2025, the fund's weighted average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio was approximately 33.98 times, compared to the industry average of 15.75 times. The weighted average price-to-book (P/B) ratio was about 1.65 times, while the industry average was 2.52 times. The weighted average price-to-sales (P/S) ratio was around 0.76 times, against an industry average of 2.16 times [10]. Growth Metrics - For the first half of 2025, the fund's weighted average revenue growth rate was 0%, and the weighted average net profit growth rate was -0.26%. The weighted annualized return on equity was 0.05% [17]. Fund Composition and Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, the fund had a total of 81,900 holders, collectively holding 1.177 billion shares. Institutional investors held 46.49% of the shares, while individual investors accounted for 53.51%. The fund's top ten holdings included companies such as SF Holding, Aero Engine Corporation of China, and China Chemical Engineering [36][40]. - The fund's turnover rate for the last six months was approximately 102.82%, remaining below the industry average for three consecutive years [38]. Investment Strategy - The fund management anticipates a favorable investment window as liquidity improves and the domestic economy stabilizes. The focus will be on sectors benefiting from manufacturing upgrades, domestic demand stabilization, and technological breakthroughs. The strategy includes aligning with the latest reforms in state-owned enterprises and exploring investment opportunities in private enterprises that can benefit from these reforms [2].

Group 1 - The capital market policies have significantly increased in intensity over the past two years, focusing more on supporting technological development [1] - The reform direction of the capital market aims to optimize resource allocation and guide orderly flow of factors to serve the development of new productivity [1] - China's technological breakthroughs, represented by innovations such as large models, robotics, smart cars, and quantum computing, are driven by top-level policy design that continuously optimizes the innovation ecosystem [1] - Under strong policy support and industry collaboration, China is transitioning from a "follower" to a "leader" in technology [1] - Milestone breakthroughs have been achieved in several key technology fields in China since 2024, with Huawei's Ascend chip performance nearing international leading levels and the smart car industry chain demonstrating strong competitiveness in the global market [1] - Companies like iFlytek (002230) have surpassed international counterparts in core capabilities of large models, while BYD (002594) has reversed its electric platform technology to international giants [1] - This "pressure-response-breakthrough" innovation paradigm is reshaping the global technology competition landscape [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159101) closely tracks the National Index for Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology, covering leading tech companies such as Xiaomi, Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, BYD, SMIC, and BeiGene [2] - The top five constituent stocks account for 57% of the ETF's weight, while the top ten account for 77%, indicating a high concentration and broad coverage [2] - The ETF provides a one-stop investment tool for investors to access leading Chinese technology enterprises across "software and hardware + new consumption + innovative pharmaceuticals + new energy vehicles" [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market shows mixed performance with fluctuations in major indices, indicating a complex investment environment influenced by various factors including policy support and sector performance [1][2]. Market Performance - As of the midday close on July 28, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3587.69 points, down 0.17%, while the Shenzhen Component Index was at 11150.41 points, down 0.16%. The ChiNext Index rose slightly by 0.1% to 2342.39 points [1][2]. - Over 3000 stocks in the market experienced declines, reflecting a broad-based weakness despite some sector strengths [2]. Sector Analysis - Strong performing sectors included military equipment restructuring, film and television, PEEK materials, and PCB, while coal mining, steel, and zinc metal sectors showed weakness [2]. - The investment strategy officer from Guotai Junan highlighted that technological breakthroughs and emerging industry themes are driving market interest, supported by stable macro policies and marginal fiscal stimulus in infrastructure [2]. Investment Trends - Market participants noted a strong index performance with daily trading volumes nearing 2 trillion yuan, indicating heightened activity in financing transactions [3]. - The number of private equity fund registrations in June reached a near-year high, with retail investors showing renewed buying interest and significant increases in holdings by northbound trading [3]. Policy and Economic Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to improve the supply-demand dynamics in the midstream manufacturing sector, with a notable recovery in ROE for industries such as chemicals, batteries, and silicon materials [4]. - The real estate sector is stabilizing, providing additional support for the market, with a focus on technology growth areas such as storage chips and AI applications [4].

证券研究报告·北交所报告·北交所定期报告 北交所定期报告 20250622 北证指数震荡回调，开展专精特新指数测试 2025 年 06 月 22 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] [Table_Summary] 北交所市场表现 行业重要新闻： 观点 证券分析师 朱洁羽 执业证书：S0600520090004 zhujieyu@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 易申申 执业证书：S0600522100003 yishsh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 余慧勇 执业证书：S0600123070027 xuelx@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 武阿兰 执业证书：S0600124070018 wual@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《瑞士央行、挪威央行双双宣布：降 息 25 个基点》 2025-06-19 《金融监管总局与上海市合力支持上 海金融中心建设》 2025-06-18 东吴证券研究所 1 / 9 执业证书：S0600524080003 yuhy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 薛路熹 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部 分 ◼ 行情回顾：从指数涨跌表现来看，截至 20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a trend of oscillating upward since April 7, indicating a recovery phase, with opportunities emerging in industries that have seen their fundamentals bottom out before the overall economy does [1] Industry Summary - The overall performance of AH shares has been characterized by a gathering of market sentiment amid divergences and a gradual repair of valuations during fluctuations [1] - Industries expected to present more opportunities include innovative pharmaceuticals, new consumption, AI-related sectors, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financials, as they are likely to see their fundamentals improve first [1] - Many industries are experiencing a relief from deflationary pressures, aided by adjustments in upstream prices, technological breakthroughs, and the benefits of engineering talent, leading to a gradual exit from profit troughs for many mid- and downstream sectors [1] - From a medium-term perspective, the A-share market is anticipated to continue following the main theme of Chinese manufacturing [1]