Core Viewpoint - The current market is experiencing a divergence between Hong Kong and A-shares, driven by the concentration of high-quality core assets in Hong Kong, particularly in sectors like internet, hard technology, smart vehicles, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] Market Divergence - Investors face two main concerns: the bullish trend in Hong Kong stocks versus the volatility in A-shares, leading to performance discrepancies in institutional products [1] - Approximately 60% of public asset management products lack access to Hong Kong Stock Connect, and those that do have an average potential increase of 26.5% in their allowable investment in Hong Kong stocks [1] Strategy Paradigm Shift - The past three years were characterized as a macroeconomic boom, with macro volatility and policy responses being the main market drivers, leading to the adoption of barbell strategies [1] - In contrast, the current year is transitioning to a macroeconomic "small year," where policy direction is clearer, and marginal changes in macro and policy factors are less likely to drive market direction [1] Investment Themes - A-shares are expected to see concentrated themes in edge AI and high-energy density batteries, with significant catalysts anticipated in the second quarter [1] - Traditional core assets in A-shares are being cleared out, with potential operational turning points expected as the economy recovers [1] Performance Focus - The market is increasingly focusing on themes with high earnings certainty, particularly in sectors like military industry, low-altitude economy, and semiconductor advanced processes [3] - The upcoming increase in military spending in Europe and the gradual realization of capital expenditures by major internet companies are expected to boost related sectors [3] Economic and Fiscal Insights - The national economic development plan emphasizes nurturing emerging industries and adjusting supply-demand relationships, with a focus on infrastructure and manufacturing investment [5] - The fiscal budget report indicates a significant increase in broad fiscal spending, benefiting from the second set of accounts [5] Trade and Export Dynamics - The impact of U.S. tariffs is beginning to affect trade, with a notable decline in export growth rates, particularly in labor-intensive products [7] - The semiconductor industry is playing a crucial role in export dynamics, with geopolitical factors and tariff schedules being key variables for future export growth [7] Sector-Specific Developments - The cement industry is experiencing a price surge due to steady demand from infrastructure projects and coordinated supply-side measures [17] - The humanoid robot sector is poised for growth, with domestic control companies entering the market, indicating potential opportunities for incremental growth [19]

2）欧洲对美国的安全承诺信任度下降，欧洲加大国防开支 。俄乌战争暴露了欧洲传统安全架构 的脆弱性。俄罗斯的军事行动（如在边境增兵、能源武器化）迫使欧洲重新评估防御能力。根据 新华社消息，东欧国家（如波兰、波罗的海三国）已将军费提升至GDP的2 . 5%- 4%；德国、英 国、法国计划将军费开支提高到GDP比重的2%~5%。欧洲国防开支加大引发市场对于未来经济 发展不确定性担忧，且有可能带来全球的军费开支扩张。 文 ｜ 秦培景 刘易 王冠然 侯苏洋 卿施典 任恒毅 白弘伟 田鹏 王涛 王子昂 市场持续高波动，主题轮动加快，基本面确定性日益重要，关注前期低位主题。其一，全国"两 会"顺利召开后政策博弈结束，市场更关注政策的具体落地；其二，外部环境复杂性加剧，以及财 报季临近，市场对科技板块热点催化预计趋于钝化；其三，业绩或订单确定性更强的资产、估值水 平相对低位的板块获得持续关注；建议关注军工&低空经济、半导体先进制程国产化、AIDC （Artif c i a l I n t e lli g e n c e Da t a Ce n t e r）三个主题。从主题环境来看，综合流动性指标和市场风格 特征，我们预计科技 ...