What we are now seeing is a deterioration between more respected in the credit cycle in any of our portfolio. So I think that's credit remains solid for on credit cards in the US all the way to corporates, but we will see how it plays and continues once the economy. I don't think that the economy will go into recession.It's likely to slow down and the credit cycle will continue to normalize. But I don't think that in the credit cycle we see that the duration beyond what we were expecting if the economy slow ...

16 November 2025 | 5:06PM HKT Equity Research AAC (2018.HK): Vapor chamber, AI glasses, Edge AI devices, Foldable phones to drive growth ahead; TP up to HK$68.6; Buy We are getting increasingly bullish about AAC due to its new components (Vapor chamber) and promising iPhone outlook. We revisit our earnings estimates and raise TP to HK$68.6 owing to: Allen Chang +852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Verena Jeng +852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Ting S ...

Core Insights - The state of China's e-commerce is mixed, with companies like JD.com and Tencent showing strong earnings despite a challenging macroeconomic backdrop [1][4][7] - Alibaba's stock has surged approximately 90% year-to-date, making it a popular choice for investors looking to capitalize on the AI theme [6][14] - Analysts expect Alibaba to report only 5% revenue growth year-over-year, with cloud computing revenues being a key focus area due to weak domestic consumption [9][19] Company Performance - JD.com and Tencent reported solid earnings, indicating that companies directly tied to China's economy are finding growth opportunities [4][5] - Tencent is investing in new technologies like 3D imaging and AI, which may help it navigate current market challenges [5][6] - Alibaba's core e-commerce business faces challenges due to light domestic consumption, but its cloud segment has shown over 20% growth in the previous quarter [7][9] Market Trends - The Crane Shares China Internet ETF has increased over 30% this year, reaching a three-year high, reflecting positive sentiment towards Chinese tech stocks [1] - Despite a recent selloff in global growth stocks, particularly in the semiconductor sector, Chinese companies are still attracting investor interest [4][5] - The upcoming earnings report from Alibaba on November 25 is anticipated to be a potential catalyst for further stock movement [14][19] Investment Strategies - Investors are exploring options strategies around Alibaba, with a focus on capturing potential upside while managing risk through short put verticals [16][18] - The implied volatility surrounding Alibaba's earnings is higher, indicating increased market expectations for stock movement [15][19]

Core Insights - Tencent reported third-quarter revenue of ¥192.9 billion ($27.08 billion), exceeding expectations due to strong performance in artificial intelligence and gaming [1] - The company's revenue increased by 15% year-on-year, surpassing analyst forecasts, indicating effective monetization of AI and sustained leadership in the gaming sector [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the third quarter reached ¥192.9 billion ($27.08 billion) [1] - Year-on-year revenue growth was recorded at 15%, indicating robust financial health [1]

Core Insights - The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is significantly impacting technology investing, with companies in chips, software, and cloud infrastructure being revalued based on their AI exposure [2][8] - The Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT) encompasses major players in the AI space, including Nvidia, Microsoft, and Palantir Technologies, providing a diversified investment option with low fees [2][3][6] Performance and Structure - Year-to-date, the Vanguard Information Technology ETF has returned 23%, outperforming the S&P 500's 15.6% [3] - The ETF holds 314 tech stocks and has a low expense ratio of 0.09%, allowing investors to benefit from the growth of AI without the need for precise timing [3][9] Key Holdings and Industry Impact - Major holdings include Microsoft and Apple, which together account for approximately 25% of the fund, reflecting their significant roles in AI integration [6] - The fund captures the spillover effects of AI across various sectors, including custom AI chip design by Broadcom and database retrofitting by Oracle [7] Sector Dynamics - The technology sector's current dominance in the S&P 500 mirrors the dot-com bubble peaks, but this concentration is justified as AI continues to disrupt traditional industries [8] - By focusing on technology, the fund avoids sectors that are being disrupted, such as utilities and traditional retail, thus positioning itself with the disruptors [9] Long-term Strategy - The Vanguard fund adopts a patient investment strategy, allowing market-cap weighting to determine the winners in the AI space, rather than chasing individual stocks [10] - The fund's long-term track record indicates its potential to turn modest investments into substantial wealth over time [11] Future Outlook - AI spending is accelerating, and cloud adoption has significant growth potential, indicating a strong trend for the future [13] - The companies within the fund are expected to shape the next 25 years of technology, making it a strategic investment choice [14]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 9% growth in profit before tax, supported by a 5% increase in income [2][3] - Operating income reached $5.1 billion, up 5% year-on-year, while operating expenses increased by 4% [3][4] - Profit before tax was $2 billion, reflecting a 9% increase, and tangible net asset value per share rose by $0.175 year-on-year [4][5] - The return on tangible equity is now expected to be around 13% in 2025, upgraded from previous guidance [3][11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Corporate and Institutional Banking (CIB) income was $3 billion, up 2% year-on-year, driven by a 23% increase in global banking income [8][10] - Wealth and Retail Banking (WRB) income increased by 7% to $2.3 billion, with wealth solutions income up 27% [10][11] - The affluent business onboarded 67,000 new clients in the quarter, contributing to a total net new money of $42 billion year-to-date [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Underlying loans and advances to customers increased by 1% or $2 billion quarter-on-quarter, with a 4% growth year-to-date [6][7] - Underlying customer deposits rose by 2% or $11 billion quarter-on-quarter, primarily from WRB [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on servicing clients' cross-border and affluent banking needs, with a strategic emphasis on wealth management [3][11] - The company plans to present updated 2026 return on tangible equity guidance at the full-year results in February [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the future, highlighting strong performance in wealth management and the potential for continued growth [11][25] - The company is preparing for significant trends such as the digitization of money and the incorporation of AI into business models [26][27] Other Important Information - The company achieved $566 million in run-rate savings from the Fit for Growth program, with total expense guidance for 2026 remaining below $12.3 billion [5][50] - Credit impairment for the quarter was $195 million, with an annualized loan loss rate of 24 basis points [5][6] Q&A Session Summary Question: Discussion on wealth business margin pickup - Management noted that net new money is migrating into wealth products, and the return on assets has improved due to a conversion from assets under custody to assets under management [15][20] Question: Long-term outlook for wealth management in China - Management discussed the importance of AI and digitization in future growth, emphasizing the bank's strong position in China [25][26] Question: Clarification on net interest income expectations - Management indicated optimism for Q4 net interest income, citing better-than-expected performance and effective management of pass-through rates [34][39] Question: Insights on credit impairment and high-risk assets - Management reassured that there are no significant signs of stress in sovereign credit, despite some fluctuations in high-risk assets [56][60] Question: Future profitability in ventures - Management expects digital banks to turn profitable by 2026, with ongoing improvements in operating performance [75][78]

Core Insights - PayPal is instituting its first dividend, indicating a shift towards returning value to shareholders [1] - The company is boosting its full-year forecast, suggesting improved financial performance and growth expectations [1] - PayPal is partnering with OpenAI, which may enhance its technological capabilities and innovation [1] Financial Performance - The announcement of the first dividend reflects a commitment to shareholder returns [1] - The increase in the full-year forecast indicates positive trends in revenue and profitability [1] Strategic Initiatives - The partnership with OpenAI may lead to advancements in PayPal's services and operational efficiency [1]

Core Insights - The Vanguard Energy ETF has outperformed other ETFs, achieving a 30.2% annual return over the last five years, significantly higher than the Vanguard Financials ETF's 20% [4][6] - The ETF's performance is attributed to the recovery of the global economy post-COVID-19, which increased oil demand, although it has been relatively flat over the last three years compared to the S&P 500's 80% gain [6][9] - The ETF is heavily weighted in major companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron, which have low production costs and strong dividend histories, making it an attractive option for passive income [12][15] Performance Context - The Vanguard Energy ETF's impressive returns are contextualized by the low oil prices during the pandemic, which drove significant gains as the economy recovered [5][6] - Current forecasts predict Brent crude oil prices to be around $52 per barrel in 2026, which could pressure margins for oil companies [9][11] - The ETF's performance is influenced by external factors such as geopolitical events and shifts in investor preferences towards dividend and value stocks [10][17] Investment Characteristics - The Vanguard Energy ETF has a low expense ratio of 0.09%, making it a cost-effective way to invest in leading U.S. energy companies [16] - The ETF yields 3.1%, driven by high yields from its largest holdings, which is significantly higher than the S&P 500 average of 1.2% [15][16] - The ETF's price-to-earnings ratio of 16.9 is more attractive compared to the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF's 28.9, appealing to investors concerned about valuations [18]

Summary of Kingdee (0268.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Kingdee International Software Group Company Limited (0268.HK) - **Industry**: Software and Cloud Services Key Points Financial Performance - Kingdee reported an Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) growth of **18% YoY** to **Rmb3.86 billion** by the end of September 2025, compared to **18.5% YoY** to **Rmb3.73 billion** by the end of June 2025 [1][5][7] - The net addition to ARR was **Rmb130 million**, accounting for **41%** of the estimated ARR net additions for the second half of 2025, consistent with historical trends [1][5] - The company's Net Dollar Retention Rate (NDR) for large-scale cloud services was **105%** in Q3, down from **108%** in the first half of 2025 [1][5][12] Revenue Segmentation - By segment, the NDR for: - Large-scale cloud (Cosmic/Constellation): **105%** - Mid-scale cloud (Galaxy): **95%** - SME cloud (Stellar/Jingdou): **93%/88%** in Q3 [1][5][12] Future Outlook - Kingdee expects ARR to grow **18% YoY** by the end of 2025, driven by AI integration and deeper client penetration [1][7] - The company continues to prioritize AI-driven solutions and subscription models, with cloud subscription revenues contributing **53%** of total revenues in the first half of 2025 [1][7] Earnings Revision - Earnings for 2025 have been revised down by **2%**, while 2026-2027 earnings remain largely unchanged. The revenue growth for the mid-scale cloud business has been fine-tuned [1][8] - Projected revenues for 2025E are **Rmb7.044 billion**, with a **23% CAGR** expected from 2025 to 2027 [1][8][9] Valuation - The target price for Kingdee is revised to **HK$18.98**, based on a blend of DCF and P/S methodologies, implying a **28.2% upside** from the current price of **HK$14.81** [1][11][22] - The updated **2026E P/S ratio** is **6.4x**, based on the average P/S valuation of Kingdee's software peers [1][11][18] Risks - Key downside risks include: 1. Weaker-than-expected demand for ERP digitization 2. Slower product development processes 3. Increased talent and labor costs [1][19] Additional Insights - Kingdee's focus on AI and subscription services is expected to enhance profitability and scale [1][7] - The company has established relationships with new clients, including BAIC, Yuchai Machinery, and Bloomage Biotech, which may further support revenue growth [1][7] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call regarding Kingdee's financial performance, future outlook, earnings revisions, valuation, and associated risks.

Core Viewpoint - BlackRock's actively managed ETF, BAI, has gained significant attention and performance, driven by a focus on long-term winners in the artificial intelligence sector, including both well-known and lesser-known companies integral to the AI ecosystem [2][3][4]. Investment Strategy - The BAI ETF has skyrocketed over 65% in the past six months, highlighting the strong performance of AI-related stocks [4]. - Diversification is emphasized as crucial for investors, with a recommendation to explore various market opportunities beyond the dominant MAG7 tech stocks [5][6]. Market Trends - There is a growing interest in sectors such as infrastructure and reshoring efforts, particularly in semiconductor manufacturing, which require different investment strategies compared to AI [9]. - The current market environment has led to increased interest in alternative assets like gold and Bitcoin, driven by macroeconomic factors such as inflation and geopolitical concerns [12][13]. Portfolio Construction - BlackRock suggests a three-bucket approach to portfolio construction: low-cost market ETFs, thematic and factor-based strategies for alpha generation, and risk management strategies [14][15]. - Buffer ETFs are gaining traction as a protective measure against market selloffs while allowing for upside participation, catering to investors who are cautious about entering the market at record highs [16][19].