证券研究报告 中国财险 (2328 HK) 港股通 业绩预增：前三季度净利润同比增长 40%~60% 2025 年 10 月 17 日│中国香港 保险 | 华泰研究 | | | 公告点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 10 月 | 17 日│中国香港 | 保险 | 目标价(港币): | 21.00 | | 李健，PhD | 研究员 | | --- | --- | | SAC No. S0570521010001 | lijian@htsc.com | | SFC No. AWF297 | +(852) 3658 6112 | | 于明汇* | 联系人 | SAC No. S0570124070107 yuminghui@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 基本数据 | 收盘价 (港币 截至 10 月 16 日) | 18.78 | | --- | --- | | 市值 (港币百万) | 417,719 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (港币百万) | 444.75 | | 52 周价格范 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company [7] Core Insights - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 68.047 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.8%, while the operating profit attributable to shareholders increased by 3.7% to 77.732 billion yuan [2] - The new business value (NBV) of the life and health insurance segment reached 22.335 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 39.8% [2] - The comprehensive cost ratio of the property and casualty insurance business improved significantly, decreasing by 2.6 percentage points to 95.2% [3] - The investment portfolio achieved a non-annualized comprehensive investment return of 3.1%, up by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, with a total investment scale exceeding 6.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.2% from the beginning of the year [3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the life and health insurance business generated an operating profit of 52.435 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [2] - The insurance service revenue for the property and casualty insurance business was 165.661 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [3] - The company expects earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 to be 7.85 yuan, with projections of 9.07 yuan and 10.49 yuan for 2026 and 2027, respectively [3] - The target price for the stock is set at 66.87 yuan, based on a price-to-embedded value (P/EV) of 0.8 times for 2025 [3]

Core Viewpoint - China Pacific Insurance (CPIC) reported its 1H25 performance, which met expectations, showing improvements in net profit and net asset growth compared to previous quarters [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders reached 27.89 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 11.0% [1] - The new business value (NBV) was 9.54 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.3% on a comparable basis [1][2] - The net profit for 2Q25 showed a significant year-on-year increase of 36.5%, driven by rising equity markets and declining interest rates [1] - The company's net assets stood at 281.9 billion, down 3.3% year-to-date but up 6.9% quarter-on-quarter [1] Business Segments - The NBV growth continued at a rapid pace, with a notable increase in the proportion of participating insurance products, which accounted for 42.5% of new single premium [2] - The company’s individual insurance and bank insurance new premium saw a year-on-year decline of 7.7% and an increase of 95.6%, respectively [2] - The property and casualty insurance premium income grew by 0.9% year-on-year, with motor insurance up 2.8% and non-motor insurance down 0.8% [2] - The combined ratio (COR) improved to 96.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, indicating better underwriting performance [2] Investment Performance - The non-annualized net, total, and comprehensive investment yields were 1.7%, 2.3%, and 2.4%, respectively, showing a year-on-year decline [3] - The company’s stock and fund investments increased by 11.0% and 16.1% year-to-date, outpacing the growth of total investment assets [3] - The proportion of stock investments included in other comprehensive income (OCI) rose by 4 percentage points to 33.8% [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain strong growth in net profit and NBV, with projected net profits of 52.1 billion, 56.8 billion, and 61.3 billion for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 15.9%, 9.0%, and 8.0% respectively [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/EV multiple of 0.65, 0.61, and 0.57 for 2025-2027 estimates [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved a net profit of 24.5 billion yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 32.3%, driven by improved cost management and investment performance [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported original premium income of 323.3 billion yuan, up 3.6% year-on-year, with a combined ratio (COR) of 94.8%, down 1.4 percentage points [1]. - The total investment yield (unannualized) increased by 0.2 percentage points to 2.6% year-on-year, benefiting from structural opportunities in the equity market and bond market [2]. - The company plans to distribute a mid-term dividend of 0.24 yuan per share (before tax) [1]. Group 2: Cost Management and Underwriting - The improvement in COR was significantly driven by optimized expense management, with the expense ratio decreasing by 3.1 percentage points to 23% [1]. - The loss ratio increased by 1.7 percentage points to 71.8%, influenced by factors such as the rising proportion of new energy vehicles and increased compensation standards [1]. - Non-auto insurance segments, excluding agricultural insurance, experienced premium growth, while agricultural insurance faced a decline due to regulatory changes [1]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - As of H1 2025, the company's investment assets rose by 5.2% to 711.5 billion yuan, with an increased allocation to bonds and stocks [2]. - The bond allocation increased by 2.7 percentage points to 41.1%, while the stock allocation rose by 2 percentage points to 9.2% [2]. - The company expects to maintain a favorable COR level and achieve continued year-on-year optimization, particularly in the context of the development of new energy vehicle insurance [2].