证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 03 月 27 日 [Table_Title] 中国平安 2025 年报点评：OPAT 实现双位数增 长，资负两端表现稳健 分析判断: ► 人身险：归母营运利润同比+2.9%，NBV 同比+29.3%。 2025 年，集团寿险及健康险业务实现归母营运利润 997.52 亿元，同比+2.9%，主要系投资服务业绩（即营 运投资收益高于准备金要求回报的部分）同比+55.5%。2025 年集团寿险及健康险 NBV 达成 368.97 亿元，同比+ 29.3%。NBV 的增长主要来源于价值率的大幅提升，2025 年 NBVM（按首年保费，下同）同比+4.9pp 至 23.4%， 用来计算 NBV 的首年保费同比+2.5%。分渠道来看，2025 年集团代理人渠道 NBV 同比+10.4%（其中 NBVM 同比 +6.4pp 至 30.8%，用来计算 NBV 的首年保费同比-12.5%）。截至 2025 年末，集团个人寿险销售代理人数量 35.1 万人（同比-3.3%），人均新业务价值同比+17.2%。2025 年集团银保渠道 NBV 同比大幅增长 138 ...

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 非银金融 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | 基础数据: | 2025 年 12 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 55.25 | | 资产负债率% | 89.81 | | 总股本/流通 A 股(百万) | 18,108/10,660 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/7,448 | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： -20% 0% 20% 40% 03-27 04-27 05-27 06-27 07-27 08-27 09-27 10-27 11-27 12-27 01-27 02-27 03-27 中国平安 沪深300指数 (收益率) 2026 年 03 月 27 日 中国平安 (601318) ——业绩表现稳健，股息率亮眼 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2026 年 03 月 27 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 56.95 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 74.88/47.00 | | 市净率 | 1.0 | 股息率%（分红/股价） 4.51 流通 A ...

Core Insights - China Pacific Insurance (CPIC) reported a net profit of 45.7 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.3% [1] - The company's new business value (NBV) reached 15.35 billion yuan, up 31.2% year-on-year, indicating strong growth in insurance services [1][2] - The company's combined ratio (COR) improved to 97.6%, a decrease of 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, suggesting better underwriting performance [2] Financial Performance - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 17.8 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 35.2%, driven by capital market gains and improved insurance service performance [1] - The total net assets at the end of September 2025 were 284.2 billion yuan, down 2.5% from the beginning of the year, primarily due to bond devaluation [1] - The non-annualized net investment return was 2.6%, while the total investment return was 5.2%, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 0.3 percentage points and an increase of 0.5 percentage points, respectively [1][3] Product and Channel Performance - The NBV growth rate of 31.2% year-on-year was impacted by a high base from the previous year, with a slight decline in new single premium from agent channels [2] - The proportion of participating insurance in new regular premium increased to 58.6%, indicating a shift towards more profitable product lines [2] - The insurance premium income from non-auto insurance decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, while auto insurance premiums grew by 2.9% [2] Investment Strategy - The company's investment scale exceeded 2.97 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.8% from the beginning of the year, with a focus on high-dividend assets in a low-interest-rate environment [3] - The fair value of equity investments increased by 18.5% compared to the beginning of the year, indicating a strategic shift towards equities amid favorable market conditions [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain strong growth in NBV and underwriting profits, with projected net profits of 55.4 billion, 60.2 billion, and 64.7 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing growth rates of 23.2%, 8.6%, and 7.6% respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 21.00 [1][9]. Core Insights - The company expects a net profit growth of 40% to 60% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant increase in investment income due to favorable capital market conditions [5]. - The underwriting performance in the auto insurance sector is anticipated to continue improving, supported by a decrease in the combined ratio (COR) and a reduction in natural disaster claims [6]. - Non-auto insurance premiums are expected to grow at a rate higher than auto insurance, with regulatory changes likely to enhance the company's performance in this segment [7]. - The investment income is projected to increase significantly, benefiting from a strong stock market performance and strategic asset allocation [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 has been raised to RMB 1.93, reflecting improved underwriting and investment performance [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts gross premium income to grow from RMB 485 billion in 2024 to RMB 513 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.73% [4]. - Total investment income is expected to rise from RMB 27.88 billion in 2024 to RMB 29.82 billion in 2025, marking an 80.17% increase from the previous year [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from RMB 32.17 billion in 2024 to RMB 42.94 billion in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 33.47% [4]. Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 11.86 in 2024 to 8.89 in 2025, indicating a more attractive valuation [4]. - The price-to-book (PB) ratio is projected to decline from 1.48 in 2024 to 1.29 in 2025, suggesting potential upside in the stock price [4]. - The dividend per share (DPS) is expected to increase from HKD 0.54 in 2024 to HKD 0.67 in 2025, with a dividend yield of 3.92% [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company [7] Core Insights - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 68.047 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.8%, while the operating profit attributable to shareholders increased by 3.7% to 77.732 billion yuan [2] - The new business value (NBV) of the life and health insurance segment reached 22.335 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 39.8% [2] - The comprehensive cost ratio of the property and casualty insurance business improved significantly, decreasing by 2.6 percentage points to 95.2% [3] - The investment portfolio achieved a non-annualized comprehensive investment return of 3.1%, up by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, with a total investment scale exceeding 6.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.2% from the beginning of the year [3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the life and health insurance business generated an operating profit of 52.435 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [2] - The insurance service revenue for the property and casualty insurance business was 165.661 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [3] - The company expects earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 to be 7.85 yuan, with projections of 9.07 yuan and 10.49 yuan for 2026 and 2027, respectively [3] - The target price for the stock is set at 66.87 yuan, based on a price-to-embedded value (P/EV) of 0.8 times for 2025 [3]

Core Viewpoint - China Pacific Insurance (CPIC) reported its 1H25 performance, which met expectations, showing improvements in net profit and net asset growth compared to previous quarters [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders reached 27.89 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 11.0% [1] - The new business value (NBV) was 9.54 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.3% on a comparable basis [1][2] - The net profit for 2Q25 showed a significant year-on-year increase of 36.5%, driven by rising equity markets and declining interest rates [1] - The company's net assets stood at 281.9 billion, down 3.3% year-to-date but up 6.9% quarter-on-quarter [1] Business Segments - The NBV growth continued at a rapid pace, with a notable increase in the proportion of participating insurance products, which accounted for 42.5% of new single premium [2] - The company’s individual insurance and bank insurance new premium saw a year-on-year decline of 7.7% and an increase of 95.6%, respectively [2] - The property and casualty insurance premium income grew by 0.9% year-on-year, with motor insurance up 2.8% and non-motor insurance down 0.8% [2] - The combined ratio (COR) improved to 96.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, indicating better underwriting performance [2] Investment Performance - The non-annualized net, total, and comprehensive investment yields were 1.7%, 2.3%, and 2.4%, respectively, showing a year-on-year decline [3] - The company’s stock and fund investments increased by 11.0% and 16.1% year-to-date, outpacing the growth of total investment assets [3] - The proportion of stock investments included in other comprehensive income (OCI) rose by 4 percentage points to 33.8% [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain strong growth in net profit and NBV, with projected net profits of 52.1 billion, 56.8 billion, and 61.3 billion for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 15.9%, 9.0%, and 8.0% respectively [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/EV multiple of 0.65, 0.61, and 0.57 for 2025-2027 estimates [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved a net profit of 24.5 billion yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 32.3%, driven by improved cost management and investment performance [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported original premium income of 323.3 billion yuan, up 3.6% year-on-year, with a combined ratio (COR) of 94.8%, down 1.4 percentage points [1]. - The total investment yield (unannualized) increased by 0.2 percentage points to 2.6% year-on-year, benefiting from structural opportunities in the equity market and bond market [2]. - The company plans to distribute a mid-term dividend of 0.24 yuan per share (before tax) [1]. Group 2: Cost Management and Underwriting - The improvement in COR was significantly driven by optimized expense management, with the expense ratio decreasing by 3.1 percentage points to 23% [1]. - The loss ratio increased by 1.7 percentage points to 71.8%, influenced by factors such as the rising proportion of new energy vehicles and increased compensation standards [1]. - Non-auto insurance segments, excluding agricultural insurance, experienced premium growth, while agricultural insurance faced a decline due to regulatory changes [1]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - As of H1 2025, the company's investment assets rose by 5.2% to 711.5 billion yuan, with an increased allocation to bonds and stocks [2]. - The bond allocation increased by 2.7 percentage points to 41.1%, while the stock allocation rose by 2 percentage points to 9.2% [2]. - The company expects to maintain a favorable COR level and achieve continued year-on-year optimization, particularly in the context of the development of new energy vehicle insurance [2].