中国人保 20251014 摘要 车险标准化建设预计将规范市场竞争，改善反内卷，落实建费出单有助 于改善财产险公司现金流和财务稳定性，缓解应收保费压力，降低理赔 纠纷，头部公司将提升品牌、规模及人才优势。 中国人保 2025 年上半年综合成本率优于预期，得益于自然灾害减少、 严监管及内部改革，全年综合成本率目标为车险 96%、非车险 99%， 下半年预计有进一步下降空间。 中国人保在反渗透降理赔方面加强过程管控、诉讼资源和定价管控，强 化反渗透规则建设，商业团体保险狠抓第一现场真实性，农险优化协赔 管理系统，成效显著。 中国人保将新能源车险作为战略险种，2025 年上半年保费收入占比 19%，市场份额 34%，居行业第一，坚持有效益发展策略，但主机厂 入局影响有限，人保仍具竞争力。 中国人保"车驾一切"模式旨在发展个人非车险业务，通过精准客户画 像丰富产品定价因子，推动商业健康险、家庭保险、文旅保险等发展， 随车购肥生成率达 77%。 Q&A 近期监管发布的关于非车险报行合一政策对中国人保的影响是什么？ 最新发布的非车险报行合一政策从四个方面对非车险的发展提出了要求：合理 降低保费规模考核要求、严格执行报行合 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved a net profit of 24.5 billion yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 32.3%, driven by improved cost management and investment performance [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported original premium income of 323.3 billion yuan, up 3.6% year-on-year, with a combined ratio (COR) of 94.8%, down 1.4 percentage points [1]. - The total investment yield (unannualized) increased by 0.2 percentage points to 2.6% year-on-year, benefiting from structural opportunities in the equity market and bond market [2]. - The company plans to distribute a mid-term dividend of 0.24 yuan per share (before tax) [1]. Group 2: Cost Management and Underwriting - The improvement in COR was significantly driven by optimized expense management, with the expense ratio decreasing by 3.1 percentage points to 23% [1]. - The loss ratio increased by 1.7 percentage points to 71.8%, influenced by factors such as the rising proportion of new energy vehicles and increased compensation standards [1]. - Non-auto insurance segments, excluding agricultural insurance, experienced premium growth, while agricultural insurance faced a decline due to regulatory changes [1]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - As of H1 2025, the company's investment assets rose by 5.2% to 711.5 billion yuan, with an increased allocation to bonds and stocks [2]. - The bond allocation increased by 2.7 percentage points to 41.1%, while the stock allocation rose by 2 percentage points to 9.2% [2]. - The company expects to maintain a favorable COR level and achieve continued year-on-year optimization, particularly in the context of the development of new energy vehicle insurance [2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to China Pacific Insurance (2328 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 24.00, indicating a potential upside of 27.7% from the current closing price of HKD 18.79 [1][12]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong performance in both underwriting and investment, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts. The expected net profit growth for 2025 is projected at 28% [7][9]. - The report highlights a significant improvement in underwriting profit, with a combined ratio (COR) of 94.8%, down 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, driven by a decrease in expense ratios [7]. - Investment income has also shown robust growth, with total investment income increasing by 26.6% year-on-year, outperforming peers [7]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 457,203 million - 2024: RMB 485,223 million - 2025E: RMB 512,327 million - 2026E: RMB 537,740 million - 2027E: RMB 563,012 million - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are expected to decline gradually from 7.7% in 2023 to 4.7% in 2027 [5][8]. - Net profit estimates are as follows: - 2023: RMB 24,585 million - 2024: RMB 32,173 million - 2025E: RMB 41,278 million - 2026E: RMB 44,756 million - 2027E: RMB 47,883 million - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is RMB 1.86, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.3 [5][8]. Profitability Metrics - The report indicates a return on equity (ROE) of 9% for the first half of 2025, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The company plans to distribute a mid-term dividend of RMB 0.24 per share, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.4% [7]. - The underwriting profit is expected to show significant growth, with a forecasted increase of 167% in 2025 [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for China Pacific Insurance (02328.HK) with a target price of HKD 21.5 [1][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a net profit of CNY 24.5 billion in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 32.3%. The original premium income rose by 3.6% to CNY 323.3 billion, while the combined ratio (COR) improved by 1.4 percentage points to 94.8%. The total investment return rate (unannualized) increased by 0.2 percentage points to 2.6% [1][8]. - The report highlights strong underwriting profitability and favorable investment conditions contributing to performance growth. The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of CNY 0.24 per share (before tax) [1][8]. Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, original premium income increased by 3.6% to CNY 323.3 billion, with a combined ratio (COR) of 94.8%, down 1.4 percentage points year-on-year. The loss ratio rose by 1.7 percentage points to 71.8%, while the expense ratio decreased by 3.1 percentage points to 23% [8]. - The company’s investment assets grew by 5.2% to CNY 711.5 billion by the end of H1 2025, benefiting from structural market conditions in equities and opportunities in the bond market [8]. - The report projects significant growth in insurance service performance, with expected revenue of CNY 28.2 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 96.1% [3][8]. Earnings Forecast - The report revises the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 to CNY 2.04, CNY 2.16, and CNY 2.32 respectively, up from previous estimates of CNY 1.69, CNY 1.86, and CNY 2.08 [8]. - The price-to-book (PB) target for 2025 is adjusted to 1.5x, corresponding to the target price of HKD 21.5 [8].

Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, China Life and China Pacific Insurance reported significant profit growth, with China Life achieving a net profit of 40.931 billion yuan, up 6.9%, and China Pacific Insurance reaching 26.530 billion yuan, up 16.9% [2] - Both companies plan to distribute a total of 10.044 billion yuan in mid-term cash dividends, with China Life proposing 6.727 billion yuan and China Pacific Insurance proposing 3.317 billion yuan [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - China Life's total premium income reached 525.088 billion yuan, marking a historical high for the same period, with a year-on-year growth of 7.3% [7] - China Pacific Insurance maintained a leading position in the property insurance market with a market share of 33.5% [2][10] - China Life's new business value exceeded 28.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.3% increase year-on-year [7] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Both companies have been actively increasing their investment asset scales, with China Life's investment assets reaching 71,271.53 billion yuan, a 7.8% increase from the end of 2024 [4] - China Life reported a net investment income of 96.067 billion yuan, with a net investment yield of 2.78% [4] - China Pacific Insurance's investment assets surpassed 1.7 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2% year-to-date, and achieved a total investment income of 41.478 billion yuan, a 42.7% increase year-on-year [5] Group 3: Business Development - China Life is diversifying its product offerings, with a significant increase in the proportion of floating yield products in first-year premium income [7] - The company is also focusing on the construction of a comprehensive health and elderly care ecosystem, with 19 institutional elderly care projects established in 15 cities [8] - China Pacific Insurance is enhancing its "car + everything" service model, with a 73.4% share of its home and auto business, and a 94.2% combined cost ratio for auto insurance, down 2.2 percentage points [10]

Financial Performance - The net profit for the first half of 2025 reached 36.155 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.8% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 26.671 billion yuan, up 14.0% [2] - Total investment income surged to 40.758 billion yuan, a growth of 40.2% [2] - Earnings per share increased to 6.47 yuan, reflecting a growth of 6.3% [2] Core Business - The original insurance premium income amounted to 454.625 billion yuan, marking a growth of 6.4% [2] - The market share of PICC Property and Casualty remained at 33.5%, maintaining its industry-leading position [2] - The comprehensive cost ratio improved to 94.8%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Underwriting profit reached 13.015 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 44.6% [2] Life Insurance Transformation - New business value for PICC Life Insurance was 4.978 billion yuan, with a comparable growth of 71.7% [5] - New business value for PICC Health Insurance was 3.837 billion yuan, with a comparable growth of 51.0% [5] - The embedded value for PICC Life Insurance was 13.056 billion yuan, up 9.0% from the end of the previous year [5] - The embedded value for PICC Health Insurance was 3.566 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.4% increase [5] Investment Highlights - Total investment income reached 40.758 billion yuan, a remarkable increase of 40.2%, with an annualized total investment return rate of 5.0% [3] - The net investment income was 29.604 billion yuan, showing a growth of 10.5% [3] - The significant increase in investment income was primarily driven by the recovery of the equity market [3] Asset Structure and Solvency - Total assets amounted to 1,878.102 billion yuan, a growth of 6.3% from the beginning of the year [6] - Net assets reached 390.638 billion yuan, also reflecting a 6.3% increase [6] - The comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio stood at 276%, indicating strong capital strength [6] Capital Management and Shareholder Returns - The company fully redeemed 8 billion yuan of capital supplement bonds, indicating improved capital adequacy [7] - The board proposed an interim dividend of 0.75 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 3.317 billion yuan, a growth of 19.0% [7] - Operating cash inflow was 74.845 billion yuan, up 6.9%, indicating overall stable cash flow [7] Digital Transformation Progress - The company has increased its AI capability usage by 27.2% compared to the end of 2024 [8] - The internet intelligent claims platform for PICC Health has received industry recognition, although the actual business transformation effects require more time to validate [8]

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is experiencing a transformation, with non-auto insurance becoming a key battleground for companies as auto insurance premiums decline and non-auto insurance business grows [1][2]. Group 1: Auto Insurance Trends - The proportion of auto insurance premiums has decreased from 60.7% at the end of 2020 to 56.8% by the end of last year [3]. - Major players in the property insurance sector, including PICC, Ping An, and Taiping, have reported declines in auto insurance premiums while experiencing growth in non-auto insurance [2][3]. - PICC's auto insurance premium income fell by 3.9%, while non-auto insurance grew by 16.1% [2]. - Taiping's auto insurance premium income decreased by 4.0%, with non-auto insurance growing by 16.9% [2]. - Ping An's auto insurance premium income declined by 3.7%, but the overall proportion of auto insurance slightly increased due to a significant reduction in guarantee insurance business [2]. Group 2: Profitability Insights - Despite the growth in non-auto insurance, auto insurance remains a primary source of profit for the companies [3]. - PICC reported an underwriting profit of 18.1 billion yuan from auto insurance, while non-auto insurance suffered losses [3]. - Taiping's auto insurance net profit was 10.77 billion yuan, compared to only 1.99 billion yuan from non-auto insurance [3]. - Ping An achieved an underwriting profit of 20.47 billion yuan from auto insurance, but faced significant losses in guarantee insurance [3]. Group 3: Non-Auto Insurance Growth - Non-auto insurance segments, particularly liability and health insurance, have shown rapid growth among the major players [4][7]. - PICC's non-auto insurance premium income reached 806.92 billion yuan, growing by 21.9% [4]. - Taiping's non-auto insurance premium income increased by 16.9%, totaling 608.44 billion yuan [6]. - Ping An's non-auto insurance segments experienced mixed results, with liability insurance declining significantly while guarantee insurance turned profitable [6][7]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The competition in the non-auto insurance market is intensifying as many companies shift focus from auto insurance [7]. - The overall property insurance industry is showing signs of recovery, with premium income growth exceeding 10% for the major players in the first two months of this year [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Pacific Insurance (02328.HK) [1] Core Views - The first quarter of 2025 showed impressive performance in both underwriting and investment, with net profit nearly doubling year-on-year, increasing by 92.7% to 11.3 billion yuan [7][11] - The company's total premium income for property insurance reached 180.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, with significant improvements in the combined cost ratio due to reduced disaster losses and cost optimization [7][9] - Investment income saw a substantial rise, with total investment income of 7.46 billion yuan, up 56.4% year-on-year, benefiting from a favorable capital market environment [7][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 478.83 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.02% [1] - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is 43.17 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 34.19% compared to 2024 [1] - The latest diluted book value per share (BVPS) is estimated at 13.42 yuan for 2025, with a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.96 [1] Underwriting Performance - The combined cost ratio improved to 94.5%, a decrease of 3.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to ongoing cost reduction efforts and fewer disaster losses [7][10] - The growth in premium income was driven by a 3.5% increase in motor vehicle insurance and a 6.5% increase in health insurance, while agricultural and liability insurance saw declines [9] Investment Performance - The report highlights a strategic shift towards high-quality equity assets, which amplified the positive effects of market recovery in Q1 [7] - The annualized total investment return rate reached 1.2%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights significant improvements in both underwriting and investment performance, with net profit from property and casualty insurance nearly doubling year-on-year [1][8] - The company is expected to continue optimizing its business structure and cost management, leading to sustained profitability growth [8] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 553,097 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 4.4%. This is expected to increase to 621,972 million RMB in 2024, representing a growth of 12.5% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 22,773 million RMB in 2023, with a significant recovery to 42,869 million RMB in 2024, reflecting an 88.2% increase [1] - The diluted book value per share (BVPS) is expected to rise from 5.48 RMB in 2023 to 6.08 RMB in 2024 [1] Business Segment Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a net profit of 12.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 43.4%. The net profits from property and casualty, life, and health insurance segments were 11.3 billion RMB, 3.7 billion RMB, and 2.4 billion RMB, respectively [8] - The property and casualty insurance segment saw a total premium income of 180.4 billion RMB in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [8] - The comprehensive cost ratio for the property and casualty insurance business improved to 94.5%, a decrease of 3.4 percentage points year-on-year, leading to an underwriting profit of 6.63 billion RMB, up 183% [8] Investment Performance - The company achieved a significant increase in investment income, with total investment returns rising by 56.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [8] - The report indicates that the company has been optimizing its asset allocation, increasing its exposure to high-quality equity assets, resulting in a 157.2% year-on-year increase in investment income and fair value changes [8] Valuation Metrics - The current market price is 7.11 RMB, with a projected P/B ratio decreasing from 1.30 in 2023 to 0.88 in 2027 [1] - The expected net profit for 2025 is 51 billion RMB, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 7.33 [1][20]