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大药的诞生,才是医药的未来
Haitong Securities International· 2025-11-05 07:29
Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is experiencing a structural change driven by the growth cycles of major products, with significant opportunities emerging in innovative drugs, medical devices, and consumer healthcare [3][6][31] - The demand for pharmaceuticals is expected to improve in 2026, supported by policies encouraging innovation and a recovery in domestic consumption [3][7] - The supply side of the pharmaceutical industry is characterized by high entry barriers due to patent protections and government regulations, which helps maintain a stable competitive environment [4][5] Group 1: Industry Trends - The aging population, urbanization, and changing disease patterns are making the pharmaceutical industry a perpetual growth sector [3] - The global pharmaceutical market has seen rapid expansion from 2009 to 2019, followed by a surge in demand due to COVID-19, and is now entering a phase of recovery and growth [3][6] - The Chinese pharmaceutical industry is expected to gradually produce world-class companies, with increasing recognition of Chinese innovative drug assets by multinational corporations (MNCs) [4][5] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Opportunities in innovative drugs are highlighted, particularly in oncology, metabolic diseases, and autoimmune diseases, with a focus on next-generation therapies and precision medicine [6][31] - The demand for innovative drugs is expected to remain strong, with policies improving medical insurance payments and the upcoming launch of commercial insurance drug catalogs [7][31] - The medical device sector is anticipated to recover, with a focus on domestic demand and international expansion, particularly in areas with low domestic production rates [7][8] Group 3: Company Performance - Major pharmaceutical companies like Eli Lilly, AbbVie, and AstraZeneca are experiencing significant growth driven by key products, with Eli Lilly's Tirzepatide generating $24.8 billion in sales [12][15] - The report identifies specific companies such as Hengrui Medicine, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, and BeiGene as outperformers in the market, with strong pipelines and global competitiveness [7][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and business development (BD) strategies for MNCs, with China becoming a significant source of projects for top global pharmaceutical companies [22][24]
大药的诞生,才是医药的未来:医药行业2026年年度策略
Haitong Securities· 2025-11-05 02:03
Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is positioned as a perennial growth sector due to aging populations, urbanization, and changing disease profiles, with a strong recovery expected in 2025 after a downturn from 2022 to 2024, driven by both innovative drugs and medical devices [2][3] - Demand and supply dynamics will remain central to the pharmaceutical industry's research, with innovation cycles and policy adjustments influencing demand growth [2][3] - The supply side is characterized by limited supply and high entry barriers, with increasing participation of Chinese companies in international competition, leading to the emergence of world-class enterprises in the pharmaceutical sector [3][4] Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical industry is expected to see significant growth in 2025, driven by a resurgence in demand for innovative drugs and a recovery in domestic medical device needs, alongside strong external demand [2] - The demand for pharmaceuticals typically fluctuates with innovation and policy cycles, with a notable increase in overseas business development (BD) opportunities anticipated in 2025 [2][5] - The Chinese pharmaceutical sector is increasingly recognized globally, with local companies making strides in various niche markets [3][4] Investment Opportunities - Opportunities in innovative drugs are highlighted, particularly in oncology, metabolic diseases, and autoimmune diseases, with a focus on next-generation therapies and precision medicine [5][29] - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the supply-demand structure and industry upgrades when conducting detailed research on specific segments within the pharmaceutical industry [4][5] - The report identifies key players and segments for investment, including CXO services, medical devices, and consumer healthcare, with specific companies recommended for increased holdings [6][5] Market Dynamics - The report outlines the competitive landscape among top global pharmaceutical companies, noting significant changes in rankings due to the performance of key products [11][19] - Chinese companies are becoming a major source of projects for multinational corporations (MNCs), with increasing transaction volumes and values in recent years [19][21] - The report discusses the strategic focus of MNCs on acquiring innovative assets and technologies to strengthen their market positions, particularly in oncology and metabolic disease sectors [12][18] Future Trends - The report anticipates breakthroughs in various therapeutic areas, including oncology, metabolic diseases, and autoimmune diseases, with a focus on innovative treatment modalities such as TCE and in vivo CAR-T [29][30] - The small nucleic acid field is expected to accelerate, with significant advancements anticipated in 2026 across multiple indications [29][30] - The report highlights the importance of collaboration and co-development models as a means for Chinese companies to enhance their global competitiveness [25][28]