Global Research US Semiconductors and Semi Equipment SemiBytes: ASML Read-throughs; Raising Export Control Ceiling? Reading through ASML's results from this past week ASML traded down significantly following results this past week and we received a host of investor inbounds on two key aspects of the report: 1) China, and 2) 2026 commentary. On China, ASML stripped ~€1.4B from backlog - on the surface, strange that this is occurring only now since several new China customers (Si'En, PST, Swaysure, etc) were ...

What's the purpose of that meeting. Well, it's interesting because we don't know what they discussed. Although the president took to social media rights to talk about the growth in video shares and the $4 trillion milestone.What was interesting is earlier this week, Joseph Wong went on MSNBC and in the course of that interview, he made the argument that the American technology stack in which NVIDIA currently holds a monopoly in the market for A. I. chips is akin to the US dollar.Right. The U.S. dollar is th ...

Summary of Key Points from the Industry Guidance on Advanced Computing Integrated Circuits Industry or Company Involved - The guidance pertains to the **advanced computing integrated circuits (ICs)** industry, specifically focusing on export controls and diversion schemes related to these ICs, particularly in the context of the **People's Republic of China (PRC)** and Macau [1][8]. Core Points and Arguments - **Export Restrictions**: The Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) has implemented export restrictions on advanced computing ICs since October 2022 due to their potential military applications, including weapons of mass destruction (WMD) [1][8]. - **Military Modernization**: Advanced computing ICs are being utilized by China for military modernization, enhancing decision-making, planning, logistics, and autonomous military systems [1][2]. - **Diversion Schemes**: BIS has identified various diversion schemes where advanced computing ICs are acquired through transshipment and diversion, necessitating increased vigilance from companies [1][2]. - **Red Flags for Transactions**: A list of transactional and behavioral red flags has been provided to help companies identify potential export control evasion related to advanced computing ICs [2][5]. - **Due Diligence Actions**: Companies are advised to conduct due diligence on new customers and evaluate Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) providers to ensure compliance with export regulations [6][12]. Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Catch-All Controls**: BIS is identifying catch-all controls that may apply to advanced computing ICs used for training AI models, emphasizing the need for companies to be aware of potential military-intelligence end uses [2][8]. - **Best Practices for Due Diligence**: Companies are encouraged to implement best practices for due diligence, including verifying customer information, assessing the end use of items, and ensuring compliance with the Export Administration Regulations (EAR) [12][13]. - **Infrastructure Requirements**: Data centers receiving advanced computing ICs must have the necessary infrastructure to operate these items, and companies should confirm this capability through written attestations [7][12]. - **Knowledge of Violations**: Exporters must not proceed with transactions if they have knowledge of potential violations of the EAR, which includes awareness of the end use of the items [10][11]. This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the guidance provided by BIS regarding advanced computing ICs, highlighting the importance of compliance and vigilance in the face of potential diversion schemes and military applications.

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's stock experienced a significant decline following the announcement of an export ban on the H20 chip to China, potentially leading to a $5.5 billion writedown in the upcoming quarterly report [1]. Stock Performance - Nvidia shares closed at $112.20 before the announcement and fell to $104.69 in pre-market trading on April 16, resulting in year-to-date losses of 22.04% [1]. Analyst Reactions - Piper Sandler analyst Harsh Kumar reduced the 12-month price forecast for Nvidia from $175 to $150, citing a drop in sales and muted demand from China as key factors [4]. - Raymond James analyst Srini Pajjurri lowered the price target from $170 to $150 while maintaining a 'Strong Buy' rating, noting that China represents approximately 14% of Nvidia's sales [5]. - Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya cut the price target from $200 to $160, outlining two tariff scenarios that could impact sales by 4% to 12% and EPS by 12% to 13% [6]. Future Outlook - Despite the price target reductions, analysts maintain bullish outlooks, with Piper Sandler and Raymond James indicating a potential upside of 43.28% and Bank of America suggesting a 52.83% upside compared to current prices [7].