Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Brazil has consecutively lowered its inflation forecast for 2025 for six weeks, now predicting a rate of 5.18%, still above the target range of 3% ± 1.5% [1] Inflation Expectations - The inflation rate forecast for 2025 has been adjusted down from 5.20% to 5.18% [1] - Despite the decrease, the inflation expectation remains above the upper limit of the target range, indicating ongoing challenges in achieving inflation control [1] Monetary Policy - In response to inflationary pressures, the Central Bank has raised the benchmark interest rate seven times since last year, currently standing at 15.0% [1] - The Central Bank will continue to assess the effects of monetary policy transmission and does not rule out the possibility of further rate hikes if necessary [1] Economic Growth and Currency Expectations - The GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been revised up from 2.21% to 2.23% [1] - The exchange rate expectation remains stable, with the market anticipating a USD to Brazilian Real exchange rate of 5.70 by the end of 2025 [1] - The market generally holds a cautiously optimistic view on Brazil's economic growth prospects [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% for the fourth consecutive time since November of the previous year, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1] - The Fed's statement highlights that economic activity is expanding steadily, with low unemployment and a strong labor market, although inflation remains slightly above the 2% target [1] - The Fed is committed to achieving maximum employment and the 2% inflation target, while closely monitoring data and economic outlook for future policy adjustments [1] Group 2 - The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) shows a significant downward adjustment in GDP growth expectations for the next three years, with median growth rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 revised to 1.4%, 1.6%, and 1.8%, respectively, down from 1.7%, 1.8%, and 1.8% [3] - Unemployment rate expectations have been raised, with median rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 now at 4.5%, 4.5%, and 4.4%, compared to previous expectations of 4.4%, 4.3%, and 4.3% [3] - Inflation expectations have also been increased, with median PCE and core PCE inflation rates for 2025 set at 3.0% and 3.1%, and for 2026 and 2027 at 2.4% and 2.1%, respectively, all above the Fed's 2% inflation target [3] Group 3 - The dot plot indicates that the median rate expectation for the end of 2024 is between 3.75% and 4.00%, suggesting a potential cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points from the current level, consistent with the March meeting results [3] - For the end of 2026, the median rate expectation is between 3.50% and 3.75%, which is higher than the previous range of 3.25% to 3.50%, indicating a narrowing of the expected rate cut from 50 basis points to 25 basis points [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's FOMC has revised its economic growth forecasts for GDP at the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027 to median growth rates of 1.4%, 1.6%, and 1.8% respectively, compared to previous forecasts of 1.7%, 1.8%, and 1.8% made in March [1] Economic Forecasts - The GDP growth forecast for the end of 2025 is now set at 1.4% [1] - The GDP growth forecast for the end of 2026 is now set at 1.6% [1] - The GDP growth forecast for the end of 2027 is now set at 1.8% [1] - The previous forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 were 1.7%, 1.8%, and 1.8% respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of India projects a GDP growth rate of 6.5% for the fiscal year 2026 [1] Economic Outlook - The Indian economy is expected to maintain a robust growth trajectory, with the central bank's forecast indicating a stable economic environment [1]

Interest Rate Decision - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, maintaining its guidance on future rate paths; one member did not support this decision [1] - The GDP growth forecast for 2025 remains unchanged, while the forecast for 2026 has been revised down from 1.2% to 1.1% [1] - Inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been lowered from 2.3% and 1.9% to 2.0% and 1.6% respectively [1] Economic Outlook - Trade tensions are expected to slow economic growth and inflation; uncertainty in trade policies will impact investment and exports [1] - The euro has continued to strengthen, with traders increasing expectations for further ECB rate cuts, anticipating an additional 33 basis points reduction this year [1] Lagarde's Press Conference Highlights - Lagarde indicated that the rate-cutting cycle is nearing its end, but this does not confirm a pause in policy; discussions on neutral interest rates have not yet taken place [1] - The ECB has performed well in managing inflation, with most long-term inflation expectations remaining around 2% [1] - Economic growth risks are skewed to the downside due to trade tensions, which may hinder growth [1] - Extensive discussions were held regarding the impact of supply chain disruptions, tariffs, and the appreciation of the euro on exports [1][2]

Group 1 - The median inflation expectations for fiscal years 2018 to 2020 show a slight decrease, with 2018 at 2.4%, 2019 at 1.9%, and 2020 remaining stable at 1.9% [2] - The GDP growth rate expectations for the same fiscal years indicate a modest increase, with 2018 at 1%, 2019 at 1.25%, and 2020 holding steady at 1.5% [2]

据日经新闻：日本央行可能会将2025财年和26财年的GDP增速预期下调至低于1.0%。 ...