Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production remains relatively stable, with the blast furnace operating rate maintaining at 0.7% year-on-year [2][5][8] - The chemical production chain shows a slight decline, with soda ash and PTA operating rates down by 2.6 percentage points to 6% and 0.9 percentage points to 1.3%, respectively [2][15] - The automotive sector's semi-steel tire operating rate is still below last year's level, increasing by 2.7 percentage points to -6.3% [2][15] Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction industry shows a mixed performance, with the nationwide grinding operating rate down by 2.4 percentage points to 3.7% [2][27] - Cement shipment rates remain low, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2% to -3% [2][27] - Asphalt operating rates have seen a recovery, increasing by 0.6 percentage points to 7.4% [2][35] Group 3: Real Estate Transactions - Real estate transactions are at a low point, with the average daily transaction area for new homes down by 19.1% year-on-year, despite a 13.1% increase [2][44] - First-tier cities continue to see a decline in transactions, down by 18.6% to 39.9% [2][44] - Third-tier cities show significant improvement, with transaction volumes increasing by 72.4% to 17% [2][44] Group 4: Transportation and Shipping - National railway and highway freight volumes have decreased, with year-on-year declines of 1.3% to 1.2% and 0.9% to 0.8%, respectively [2][54] - Port cargo throughput and container throughput have also shown a decline, down by 9.3% to 6.8% and 4.7% to 0.9%, respectively [2][54] - The overall intensity of human mobility remains high, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 2% to 12.6% [2][63] Group 5: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are mixed, with pork and vegetable prices rising by 0.1% and 0.8% respectively, while egg and fruit prices fell by 2.2% and 0.1% [3][85] - Industrial product prices have generally increased, with the South China industrial price index rising by 1.1% [3][93] - The energy and chemical price index increased by 1.3%, while the metal price index rose by 0.7% [3][93]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, emphasizes the high uncertainty surrounding economic and price forecasts due to developments in trade conditions, indicating a cautious approach without preconceived notions [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is currently facing significant uncertainty in its economic outlook, primarily influenced by trade dynamics [1] - Governor Ueda suggests that the central bank will refrain from making judgments based on biases regarding the realization of economic and price forecasts [1]

日本央行：正在关注贸易形势对物价的影响。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its interest rates next week, believing that inflation is stronger than anticipated and will consider raising rates once trade conditions become clearer [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's decision to potentially keep interest rates unchanged reflects its assessment of current inflation trends [1] - The central bank is monitoring trade conditions closely, indicating that external factors will influence its monetary policy decisions [1]

Interest Rate Decision - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, maintaining its guidance on future rate paths; one member did not support this decision [1] - The GDP growth forecast for 2025 remains unchanged, while the forecast for 2026 has been revised down from 1.2% to 1.1% [1] - Inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been lowered from 2.3% and 1.9% to 2.0% and 1.6% respectively [1] Economic Outlook - Trade tensions are expected to slow economic growth and inflation; uncertainty in trade policies will impact investment and exports [1] - The euro has continued to strengthen, with traders increasing expectations for further ECB rate cuts, anticipating an additional 33 basis points reduction this year [1] Lagarde's Press Conference Highlights - Lagarde indicated that the rate-cutting cycle is nearing its end, but this does not confirm a pause in policy; discussions on neutral interest rates have not yet taken place [1] - The ECB has performed well in managing inflation, with most long-term inflation expectations remaining around 2% [1] - Economic growth risks are skewed to the downside due to trade tensions, which may hinder growth [1] - Extensive discussions were held regarding the impact of supply chain disruptions, tariffs, and the appreciation of the euro on exports [1][2]

欧洲央行管委卡扎克斯：贸易形势似乎正在缓和。轻度、短期衰退的风险仍存。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Industrial production remains stable, with marginal improvements in infrastructure construction and a significant increase in human mobility [1][4][25]. Group 1: Industrial Production - The blast furnace operating rate shows resilience, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.6 percentage points to 3.1% [1][4]. - The chemical chain production has improved, with soda ash, PTA, and polyester filament operating rates increasing by 1.5, 1.2, and 1.6 percentage points to 1.3%, 1.2%, and 2.9% respectively [1][9]. - However, the operating rate for automotive semi-steel tires has significantly declined, down 11.3 percentage points to -17.9% [1][9]. Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction industry shows mixed performance, with national grinding operating rates and cement shipment rates declining by 14% to -5% and 3.8% to -6.3% respectively [1][15]. - Asphalt operating rates have increased year-on-year, up 7% to 2% [1][22]. Group 3: Demand Trends - Port cargo throughput has improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 10.4 percentage points to 4.2% [1][26]. - The migration index has shown a strong performance, increasing by 50.5 percentage points to 51.4% [1][29]. - New housing transactions have increased by 36.2% year-on-year to 26.8%, with all city tiers showing recovery [1][25]. Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices have generally decreased, with vegetable, pork, and egg prices falling by 2.2%, 2.3%, and 0.1% respectively [2][36]. - The South China industrial product price index has decreased by 0.4% [2][41].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - ICE cotton is expected to maintain a sideways trend as there is insufficient fundamental upward momentum. The market is waiting for the first supply - demand report of new cotton crops from USDA on May 13th. It will also focus on the growth of new US cotton crops, US cotton exports, and the international trade environment [24]. - Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to remain in a low - level sideways movement. They are affected by weak demand expectations and external market factors. Although the basis is firm due to concentrated spot ownership and downstream rigid demand, the supply side lacks upward drivers due to expected growth in Xinjiang's cotton area and favorable weather. The demand side has limited ability to boost cotton futures, and the external market lacks substantial positive factors [2][24]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data | Futures | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Change % | Volume | Volume Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Main - continuous | 68.26 | 69.10 | 66.22 | 66.72 | - 1.64 | - 2.40 | 100906 | - 20581 | 105821 | - 1353 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Main - continuous | 12870 | 13015 | 12675 | 12950 | 200 | 1.57 | 808084 | 251108 | 574084 | - 6956 | | Cotton Yarn Main - continuous | 18840 | 19470 | 18680 | 19220 | 430 | 2.29 | 22251 | 9624 | 22183 | 2470 | [6] 2. Fundamental Analysis International Cotton Situation - **ICE Cotton Trend**: ICE cotton trended downward in a sideways movement this week, with the old - crop July contract falling more than the new - crop December contract. It was suppressed by a stronger US dollar, uncertainties in US trade relations, and market caution ahead of the China - US talks and the USDA report [1][6]. - **US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data**: As of the week ending May 1st, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 14,900 tons, a 39% weekly decrease and a 50% decrease from the four - week average. Weekly shipments were 89,600 tons, an 8% increase from the previous week and a 16% increase from the four - week average. The total signed sales volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton was 2.6008 million tons, accounting for 110% of the annual forecasted export volume, and the cumulative export shipments were 1.9202 million tons, accounting for 74% of the total annual contracts [7]. - **Other Major Cotton - producing and Consuming Countries**: - **Brazil**: April cotton exports are expected to be flat month - on - month. The state of Mato Grosso is expected to have a slight increase in seed cotton production due to expanded planting area and increased yield per unit. The preliminary April raw cotton export volume was about 239,000 tons, and the cumulative export volume from July to April was about 2.55 million tons, an increase from the previous season [9]. - **India**: The market is sluggish. The Cotton Corporation of India offers about 990,000 bales of cotton for sale daily, including about 12,000 bales from the 2023/24 season. The base price of S - 6 remains unchanged [9]. - **Pakistan**: Cotton import demand is weak. Cotton sowing is progressing, with Punjab at 43% completion and Sindh at 27% due to water shortages. Cotton production is temporarily maintained at 7 - 8 million bales [10]. - **Australia**: March cotton exports were at a low level. The long - term forecast from May to July shows a high probability of below - normal precipitation and above - normal temperatures. The March raw cotton export volume was 22,704 tons [12]. - **Bangladesh**: April garment exports decreased significantly month - on - month. Spinning mills'开工 rates are limited by gas supply issues. The April export value of knitted and woven garments was $2.39 billion, and the cumulative export value from July to April increased by 10% year - on - year [13]. - **Turkey**: Domestic demand has declined. Yarn demand has slowed, and spinning mills'开工 rates are about 60%. The March raw cotton import volume was 81,395 tons, and the export volume was 25,039 tons [14]. - **Southeast Asian Textile Industry**: As of the week of May 9th, the operating rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 76%, 66.5%, and 59% respectively [15]. Domestic Cotton Situation - **Cotton Price**: During the week of May 9th, domestic cotton futures and spot prices rose slightly. Spot trading was generally light, with textile enterprises mainly making rigid - demand purchases. The mainstream sales basis of cotton spot remained stable, with some cotton merchants raising their basis quotes [16]. - **Cotton Warehouse Receipts**: As of May 9th, there were 11,282 registered warehouse receipts and 853 forecast warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton, totaling 12,135 receipts, equivalent to 509,670 tons [16]. - **Downstream Market**: The pure - cotton yarn market is entering the traditional off - season, with overall sales slowing down. The price of pure - cotton yarn remained stable, and the profit of inland textile enterprises fluctuated around the break - even point. The full - cotton grey fabric market was weak, with prices falling and orders scarce. The operating rate of weaving factories was 46.1%, and the inventory index was 40.8 days [17][18]. 3. Basic Data Charts - The report provides 14 basic data charts, including those related to Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory, textile enterprises' cotton inventory, and other aspects [20][21][22][23]. 4. Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton is expected to maintain a sideways trend. Before concerns about new US cotton crops arise and significant changes occur in US trade agreements, it will continue to move sideways. - Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to remain in a low - level sideways movement. Attention should be paid to Xinjiang's weather, the operating rates of textile enterprises, and finished - product inventories [24].

Core Viewpoint - The decline in consumer and business confidence in the Eurozone is not surprising given the uncertainty surrounding trade conditions [1] Group 1 - The Eurozone consumer confidence has decreased again, reflecting ongoing concerns about trade negotiations and the overall trade environment [1]