1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - atmosphere is warming, with the easing of the Sino - US trade situation, rising risk appetite, and the end of the strong performance of precious metals. The non - ferrous metal sector, led by copper, has shown signs of a fluctuating rebound. The overall direction is upward, but there are differences in strength within the sector [11]. - In the future, the center of copper prices is expected to rise under the joint drive of commodity and financial attributes. Zinc shows a fluctuating rebound, and the aluminum industry chain is recommended to be treated with a bullish mindset. Tin and lead are expected to be bullish, while nickel and stainless steel are in a volatile pattern [3][4][5][6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Non - ferrous Metal Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The Sino - US trade situation has eased, risk appetite has recovered, and non - ferrous metals, led by copper, have rebounded. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Key events to watch this week include trade situations, central bank meetings, and economic data releases [11]. - **Investment Strategies for Each Metal** - **Copper**: With the improvement of the manufacturing PMI, the increase in domestic demand in the fourth quarter, supply constraints, and dovish remarks from Powell, the copper price center is expected to rise. It is recommended to gradually buy on dips, with short - term pressure at 89000 - 90000 yuan/ton and support at 84000 - 85000 yuan/ton [3][12]. - **Zinc**: Supported by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and trade situation, zinc shows a fluctuating rebound. It is recommended to buy on dips, with pressure at 22400 - 22500 and support at 21500 - 21600 [4][12]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The aluminum market is bullish, with the upper pressure range at 21500 - 21800 and the lower support range at 20500 - 20800. Alumina is recommended to be short - sold, with pressure at 3000 - 3200 and support at 2600 - 2700. Cast aluminum alloy is also recommended to be treated bullishly [5][13]. - **Tin**: The tin market is bullish, with pressure at 290000 - 300000 and support at 260000 - 270000. It is recommended to take a bullish approach [6][13]. - **Lead**: The lead market is in a consolidation phase. It is recommended to hold covered call options, with pressure at 17800 - 18000 and support at 17300 - 17500 [7][14]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price fluctuates. It is recommended to buy slightly on dips, with pressure at 125000 - 128000 and support at 118000 - 120000 [8][14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market is in a volatile pattern, with pressure at 13000 - 13200 and support at 12500 - 12600. It is recommended to buy on dips [8][14]. Second Part: Non - ferrous Metal Market Review - **Futures Closing Prices and Price Changes**: Copper closed at 88710 with a 1.99% increase; zinc at 22430 with a 0.54% increase; aluminum at 21295 with a 0.73% increase; alumina at 2879 with a 2.20% increase; tin at 286720 with a 1.25% increase; lead at 17355 with no change; nickel at 121540 with a 0.81% increase; stainless steel at 12805 with a 0.43% increase; and cast aluminum alloy at 20690 with a 0.56% increase [15]. Third Part: Non - ferrous Metal Position Analysis - **Position Analysis of Each Variety**: Different non - ferrous metal varieties show different net long - short positions and changes. For example, in沪银(AG2512), the main force is strongly bullish, with a net long - short position difference of 16074, and the net long position increased by 1582 [17]. Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Spot Market - **Spot Prices and Price Changes**: The spot price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper is 87810 yuan/ton with a - 0.50% change; 0 zinc is 22300 yuan/ton with a 0.13% increase; the average spot price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous aluminum is 21150 yuan/ton with a - 0.05% change; and the national average price of Antaike alumina is 2906 yuan/ton with a - 0.14% change [18]. Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Industry Chain - The report provides multiple charts related to the industry chain of each non - ferrous metal, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price relationships, to show the supply - demand relationship and price trends in the industry chain [23][26][28] Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Arbitrage - The report provides multiple charts related to the arbitrage of each non - ferrous metal, such as the Shanghai - London ratio and the basis, to help investors find arbitrage opportunities [58][59][61] Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metal Options - The report provides multiple charts related to non - ferrous metal options, including historical volatility, implied volatility, and trading volume - position changes, to help investors understand the option market [75][77][80]

近期，中美双方在马来西亚吉隆坡展开了一场颇具看点的磋商。尽管表面上看似平静，但暗流涌动，吸引了众多关注。尤以两国在稀土问题上的分歧最为突 出，这不仅涉及当前经济利益，也反映了未来国际格局的变化。 中美高层会谈传递出了一些积极信号。根据中方商务部的声明，双方在多个经贸问题上达成初步共识，并期待后续的审批流程顺利。然而，美国财政部长贝 森特在会后发表了与此相悖的言论，声称中方并未实际落实稀土出口管制措施，并暗示通过关税威胁迫使中方暂停相关政策。 显然，贝森特的说法试图将美国政府对华施压包装成外交成就。这一转变不仅反映了政治策略的调整，也表明特朗普政府在即将到来的中期选举中急于寻求 成果。当前美国舆论频频提及的"经济危机"和日益严峻的贸易形势，使共和党政府感到不安。在这样的背景下，稀土问题成为了敏感话题，其重要性不言而 喻。 回顾历史，中美之间的稀土争夺并非一朝一夕。几年前美国在稀土市场上占据绝对话语权，而如今中国已掌握了稀土的冶炼和加工技术，成为全球最大的稀 土生产国。随着技术进步，稀土产能不仅提升，更加注重产业布局，使其他国家在面对当前市场时感到脆弱。因此，稀土的重要性不仅体现在经济层面，也 渗透至国家安全层面 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - situation changes bring significant short - term impacts on the non - ferrous sector. After the market quickly reflects the negative news, it may return to the original fluctuation logic. It is not advisable to chase short positions excessively in the short term, and one can consider bargain - hunting for strong varieties [14]. - The market's concern about the US imposing tariffs on copper imports may rise, which will intensify the siphon effect of the US market and highlight the structural contradiction of global copper inventory. The supply pressure of copper cannot be alleviated, while the domestic macro - level in the fourth quarter is expected to boost copper demand. For Shanghai copper, one can try to gradually buy on dips [4][15]. - The zinc market is affected by trade situations and profit - taking. It is expected to continue to fluctuate and rebound, and one can buy on dips [15][16]. - The aluminum industry chain shows different trends. Aluminum is in a state of shock consolidation, and it is recommended to reduce short positions; alumina is bearish, and one can hold a short - biased view; the regenerative aluminum alloy is supported by tight scrap supply, and short positions can be reduced [6][16]. - The tin market has a slight improvement in demand during the peak season, but high prices suppress spot trading. One can increase short positions moderately on rallies [7]. - The lead market is in a state of range - bound fluctuations, and one can continue to consider the option double - selling strategy in a wider range [9]. - The nickel and stainless - steel markets are affected by trade situations. Nickel is in a weak shock, and one can be slightly bullish on dips; stainless steel is in a shock pattern, and one can buy on dips [10][17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metal Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The change in Sino - US trade relations leads to an increase in risk - aversion demand, and risk assets fluctuate significantly. The non - ferrous metals show internal differentiation, with copper having relatively large fluctuations and other metals being more cautious in consolidation. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in October with a high probability [13]. - **Investment Suggestions for Each Metal** - **Copper**: Concerns about US tariffs may rise, supply pressure persists, and demand is expected to increase in the fourth quarter. Buy on dips, with support at 83000 - 84000 yuan/ton and resistance at 89000 - 90000 yuan/ton [4][15]. - **Zinc**: After a short - term rise, profit - taking and trade situations cause adjustments. It is expected to fluctuate and rebound, with support at 21500 - 21600 and resistance at 22400 - 22500. Buy on dips [15][16]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Aluminum**: Supply capacity changes slightly, and demand shows seasonal characteristics with internal differentiation. It is in shock consolidation, with support at 20200 - 20500 and resistance at 21000 - 21300. Reduce short positions [16]. - **Alumina**: Production changes little, and it is bearish, with support at 2600 - 2700 and resistance at 3000 - 3200. Hold a short - biased view [6][16]. - **Regenerative Aluminum Alloy**: Supported by tight scrap supply, it moves in tandem with Shanghai aluminum. Reduce short positions, with support at 20000 - 20200 and resistance at 20800 - 21000 [6]. - **Tin**: Supply is affected by smelter maintenance and raw material shortages, and demand improvement is limited. Increase short positions moderately on rallies, with support at 260000 - 270000 and resistance at 290000 - 300000 [7][16]. - **Lead**: Supply is affected by production cuts and maintenance, and demand recovers after the holiday. It is in range - bound fluctuations, with support at 16500 - 16600 and resistance at 17000 - 17200. Consider the option double - selling strategy [9][17]. - **Nickel**: Supply is stable in the short term, and demand slows down. It is in weak shock, with support at 118000 - 120000 and resistance at 125000 - 128000. Be slightly bullish on dips [10][17]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supply growth slows down, and demand recovers but remains weak. It is in a shock pattern, with support at 12500 - 12600 and resistance at 13000 - 13200. Buy on dips [10][17]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metal Market Review - **Futures Closing Prices and Changes** - Copper closed at 85800 yuan/ton, up 1.65%. - Zinc closed at 22015 yuan/ton, down 0.92%. - Aluminum closed at 20910 yuan/ton, up 0.24%. - Alumina closed at 2797 yuan/ton, down 0.29%. - Tin closed at 281710 yuan/ton, up 0.46%. - Lead closed at 17110 yuan/ton, up 0.35%. - Nickel closed at 121180 yuan/ton, up 0.29%. - Stainless steel closed at 12560 yuan/ton, down 0.04%. - Cast aluminum alloy closed at 20410 yuan/ton, up 0.15% [18][19]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metal Position Analysis - Different non - ferrous metal futures contracts show different net long - short positions and changes, which are affected by factors such as non - main - force funds, main - force long - position increases or decreases, and main - force short - position increases [21]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Spot Market - **Spot Prices and Changes** - Copper spot prices range from 85475 - 85600 yuan/ton, with a decline of about 0.53% - 0.54%. - Zinc spot prices range from 21850 - 22020 yuan/ton, with a decline of about 0.81% - 0.95%. - Aluminum spot prices range from 20820 - 20900 yuan/ton, with little change. - Alumina spot prices range from 2974 yuan/ton (domestic average) to 320 US dollars/ton (Australia FOB), with a decline of about 0.23% for the domestic average [24]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Industry Chain - The report provides a series of charts related to the industry chain of each non - ferrous metal, including inventory changes, processing fees, price trends, and their relationships, which helps to analyze the supply - demand situation and price trends of each metal [26][30][32]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Arbitrage - The report presents a series of charts related to the arbitrage of each non - ferrous metal, such as the ratio of domestic and foreign prices, basis, and price differences between different contracts, which helps to find arbitrage opportunities [64][65][67]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metal Options - The report provides a series of charts related to the options of each non - ferrous metal, including historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and open - interest ratio, which helps to analyze the option market and formulate option strategies [80][82][84].

Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has significantly raised China's economic growth forecast for this year by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8%, reflecting stronger-than-expected economic activity in the first half of the year and lower actual tariff rates compared to previous predictions [1][1][1] - The global economic growth forecasts for this year and next year have been adjusted to 3.0% and 3.1% respectively, with increases of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points from the previous April predictions [1][1][1] - Developed economies are expected to achieve a growth rate of 1.5%, up by 0.1 percentage points from previous estimates, with the U.S. economy projected to grow by 1.9% [1][1][1] Group 2 - Emerging markets and developing economies are forecasted to grow at a rate of 4.1%, which is an increase of 0.4 percentage points from earlier predictions [1][1][1] - Trade dynamics continue to dominate the global economic outlook, with some positive developments in trade negotiations providing support for global economic resilience, despite high historical tariff levels and significant policy uncertainty [1][1][1]

Global Economic Outlook - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global economic growth rates of 3.0% and 3.1% for this year and next, respectively, an upward revision of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points from April's forecast [1] - Trade dynamics continue to dominate the global economic outlook, with some positive developments in trade negotiations supporting global economic resilience, although overall tariff levels remain historically high and the policy environment is highly uncertain [1] China Economic Growth - The IMF significantly raised its forecast for China's economic growth by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8%, reflecting stronger-than-expected economic activity in the first half of the year and lower actual tariff rates compared to April's predictions [1] Developed and Emerging Markets - Developed economies are expected to achieve a growth rate of 1.5%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from previous estimates, with the U.S. economy projected to grow by 1.9% [1] - Emerging markets and developing economies are forecasted to grow at a rate of 4.1%, an upward revision of 0.4 percentage points from earlier projections [1]

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production remains relatively stable, with the blast furnace operating rate maintaining at 0.7% year-on-year [2][5][8] - The chemical production chain shows a slight decline, with soda ash and PTA operating rates down by 2.6 percentage points to 6% and 0.9 percentage points to 1.3%, respectively [2][15] - The automotive sector's semi-steel tire operating rate is still below last year's level, increasing by 2.7 percentage points to -6.3% [2][15] Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction industry shows a mixed performance, with the nationwide grinding operating rate down by 2.4 percentage points to 3.7% [2][27] - Cement shipment rates remain low, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2% to -3% [2][27] - Asphalt operating rates have seen a recovery, increasing by 0.6 percentage points to 7.4% [2][35] Group 3: Real Estate Transactions - Real estate transactions are at a low point, with the average daily transaction area for new homes down by 19.1% year-on-year, despite a 13.1% increase [2][44] - First-tier cities continue to see a decline in transactions, down by 18.6% to 39.9% [2][44] - Third-tier cities show significant improvement, with transaction volumes increasing by 72.4% to 17% [2][44] Group 4: Transportation and Shipping - National railway and highway freight volumes have decreased, with year-on-year declines of 1.3% to 1.2% and 0.9% to 0.8%, respectively [2][54] - Port cargo throughput and container throughput have also shown a decline, down by 9.3% to 6.8% and 4.7% to 0.9%, respectively [2][54] - The overall intensity of human mobility remains high, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 2% to 12.6% [2][63] Group 5: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are mixed, with pork and vegetable prices rising by 0.1% and 0.8% respectively, while egg and fruit prices fell by 2.2% and 0.1% [3][85] - Industrial product prices have generally increased, with the South China industrial price index rising by 1.1% [3][93] - The energy and chemical price index increased by 1.3%, while the metal price index rose by 0.7% [3][93]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Bowman supports maintaining the current monetary policy stance during the June FOMC meeting, indicating a cautious approach to interest rate changes based on economic indicators [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The FOMC may consider lowering interest rates if inflation continues to decline or if the labor market shows signs of weakening [1] - The current labor market in the U.S. is described as robust, suggesting stability in employment conditions [1] Group 2: Trade and Inflation - Price pressures from tariffs appear to have been offset, indicating that trade dynamics are not significantly impacting inflation [1] - There is no substantial evidence that the trade situation is causing major effects on the economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, emphasizes the high uncertainty surrounding economic and price forecasts due to developments in trade conditions, indicating a cautious approach without preconceived notions [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is currently facing significant uncertainty in its economic outlook, primarily influenced by trade dynamics [1] - Governor Ueda suggests that the central bank will refrain from making judgments based on biases regarding the realization of economic and price forecasts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is closely monitoring the impact of trade conditions on prices [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is assessing how trade dynamics are influencing inflationary pressures [1] - There is a focus on the relationship between trade and price stability in the current economic environment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its interest rates next week, believing that inflation is stronger than anticipated and will consider raising rates once trade conditions become clearer [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's decision to potentially keep interest rates unchanged reflects its assessment of current inflation trends [1] - The central bank is monitoring trade conditions closely, indicating that external factors will influence its monetary policy decisions [1]