Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has significantly raised China's economic growth forecast for this year by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8%, reflecting stronger-than-expected economic activity in the first half of the year and lower actual tariff rates compared to previous predictions [1][1][1] - The global economic growth forecasts for this year and next year have been adjusted to 3.0% and 3.1% respectively, with increases of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points from the previous April predictions [1][1][1] - Developed economies are expected to achieve a growth rate of 1.5%, up by 0.1 percentage points from previous estimates, with the U.S. economy projected to grow by 1.9% [1][1][1] Group 2 - Emerging markets and developing economies are forecasted to grow at a rate of 4.1%, which is an increase of 0.4 percentage points from earlier predictions [1][1][1] - Trade dynamics continue to dominate the global economic outlook, with some positive developments in trade negotiations providing support for global economic resilience, despite high historical tariff levels and significant policy uncertainty [1][1][1]

Global Economic Outlook - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global economic growth rates of 3.0% and 3.1% for this year and next, respectively, an upward revision of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points from April's forecast [1] - Trade dynamics continue to dominate the global economic outlook, with some positive developments in trade negotiations supporting global economic resilience, although overall tariff levels remain historically high and the policy environment is highly uncertain [1] China Economic Growth - The IMF significantly raised its forecast for China's economic growth by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8%, reflecting stronger-than-expected economic activity in the first half of the year and lower actual tariff rates compared to April's predictions [1] Developed and Emerging Markets - Developed economies are expected to achieve a growth rate of 1.5%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from previous estimates, with the U.S. economy projected to grow by 1.9% [1] - Emerging markets and developing economies are forecasted to grow at a rate of 4.1%, an upward revision of 0.4 percentage points from earlier projections [1]

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production remains relatively stable, with the blast furnace operating rate maintaining at 0.7% year-on-year [2][5][8] - The chemical production chain shows a slight decline, with soda ash and PTA operating rates down by 2.6 percentage points to 6% and 0.9 percentage points to 1.3%, respectively [2][15] - The automotive sector's semi-steel tire operating rate is still below last year's level, increasing by 2.7 percentage points to -6.3% [2][15] Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction industry shows a mixed performance, with the nationwide grinding operating rate down by 2.4 percentage points to 3.7% [2][27] - Cement shipment rates remain low, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2% to -3% [2][27] - Asphalt operating rates have seen a recovery, increasing by 0.6 percentage points to 7.4% [2][35] Group 3: Real Estate Transactions - Real estate transactions are at a low point, with the average daily transaction area for new homes down by 19.1% year-on-year, despite a 13.1% increase [2][44] - First-tier cities continue to see a decline in transactions, down by 18.6% to 39.9% [2][44] - Third-tier cities show significant improvement, with transaction volumes increasing by 72.4% to 17% [2][44] Group 4: Transportation and Shipping - National railway and highway freight volumes have decreased, with year-on-year declines of 1.3% to 1.2% and 0.9% to 0.8%, respectively [2][54] - Port cargo throughput and container throughput have also shown a decline, down by 9.3% to 6.8% and 4.7% to 0.9%, respectively [2][54] - The overall intensity of human mobility remains high, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 2% to 12.6% [2][63] Group 5: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are mixed, with pork and vegetable prices rising by 0.1% and 0.8% respectively, while egg and fruit prices fell by 2.2% and 0.1% [3][85] - Industrial product prices have generally increased, with the South China industrial price index rising by 1.1% [3][93] - The energy and chemical price index increased by 1.3%, while the metal price index rose by 0.7% [3][93]

美联储理事鲍曼：（我本人在）6月FOMC货币政策会议上支持按兵不动。 如果通胀继续下降、或者就业市场走弱，FOMC就可以降息。 美国劳动力市场稳健。 关税造成的价格上行压力似乎被抵消。 并没有看到贸易形势造成重大的影响。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, emphasizes the high uncertainty surrounding economic and price forecasts due to developments in trade conditions, indicating a cautious approach without preconceived notions [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is currently facing significant uncertainty in its economic outlook, primarily influenced by trade dynamics [1] - Governor Ueda suggests that the central bank will refrain from making judgments based on biases regarding the realization of economic and price forecasts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is closely monitoring the impact of trade conditions on prices [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is assessing how trade dynamics are influencing inflationary pressures [1] - There is a focus on the relationship between trade and price stability in the current economic environment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its interest rates next week, believing that inflation is stronger than anticipated and will consider raising rates once trade conditions become clearer [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's decision to potentially keep interest rates unchanged reflects its assessment of current inflation trends [1] - The central bank is monitoring trade conditions closely, indicating that external factors will influence its monetary policy decisions [1]

Interest Rate Decision - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, maintaining its guidance on future rate paths; one member did not support this decision [1] - The GDP growth forecast for 2025 remains unchanged, while the forecast for 2026 has been revised down from 1.2% to 1.1% [1] - Inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been lowered from 2.3% and 1.9% to 2.0% and 1.6% respectively [1] Economic Outlook - Trade tensions are expected to slow economic growth and inflation; uncertainty in trade policies will impact investment and exports [1] - The euro has continued to strengthen, with traders increasing expectations for further ECB rate cuts, anticipating an additional 33 basis points reduction this year [1] Lagarde's Press Conference Highlights - Lagarde indicated that the rate-cutting cycle is nearing its end, but this does not confirm a pause in policy; discussions on neutral interest rates have not yet taken place [1] - The ECB has performed well in managing inflation, with most long-term inflation expectations remaining around 2% [1] - Economic growth risks are skewed to the downside due to trade tensions, which may hinder growth [1] - Extensive discussions were held regarding the impact of supply chain disruptions, tariffs, and the appreciation of the euro on exports [1][2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the trade situation appears to be easing, suggesting a potential stabilization in economic conditions [1] - There remains a risk of a mild and short-term recession, highlighting ongoing economic uncertainties [1]

Core Viewpoint - Industrial production remains stable, with marginal improvements in infrastructure construction and a significant increase in human mobility [1][4][25]. Group 1: Industrial Production - The blast furnace operating rate shows resilience, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.6 percentage points to 3.1% [1][4]. - The chemical chain production has improved, with soda ash, PTA, and polyester filament operating rates increasing by 1.5, 1.2, and 1.6 percentage points to 1.3%, 1.2%, and 2.9% respectively [1][9]. - However, the operating rate for automotive semi-steel tires has significantly declined, down 11.3 percentage points to -17.9% [1][9]. Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction industry shows mixed performance, with national grinding operating rates and cement shipment rates declining by 14% to -5% and 3.8% to -6.3% respectively [1][15]. - Asphalt operating rates have increased year-on-year, up 7% to 2% [1][22]. Group 3: Demand Trends - Port cargo throughput has improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 10.4 percentage points to 4.2% [1][26]. - The migration index has shown a strong performance, increasing by 50.5 percentage points to 51.4% [1][29]. - New housing transactions have increased by 36.2% year-on-year to 26.8%, with all city tiers showing recovery [1][25]. Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices have generally decreased, with vegetable, pork, and egg prices falling by 2.2%, 2.3%, and 0.1% respectively [2][36]. - The South China industrial product price index has decreased by 0.4% [2][41].