失业率预期

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New York Federal Reserve: Inflation expectations rise, unemployment concerns increase
Youtube· 2025-10-07 15:45
Let's begin with some breaking news out of the New York Fed. For that, we'll turn to Steve Leeman. Morning, Steve. >> Morning, Carl.Uh New York Fed inflation expectations in their consumer uh expectations survey. The expectations are rising. Unemployment concerns are increasing.Here's the expectations for inflation one year out up 0.2% to 3.4%. That's the highest since April 2025 around the time of the uh uh reciprocal tariffs. The three-year uh unchanged at 3% that is the fifth straight month right at that ...
Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points, plus why signals for future rate cuts are 'conflicting'
Youtube· 2025-09-17 19:18
25 basis point rate cut. The Federal Reserve lowering their benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point to a new range of four to four and a quarter percent and signaling two more rate cuts this year. The decision was not unanimous.Newly minted Fed Governor Steven Myron dissented preferring to cut by 50 basis points instead of 25. As for the breakdown for rate projections this year, nine officials seeing three rate cuts in total this year. Six officials seeing one cut, one saw no cuts, and one saw ...
维持利率不变,美联储下调增长上调通胀预期
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-06-19 02:57
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% for the fourth consecutive time since November of the previous year, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1] - The Fed's statement highlights that economic activity is expanding steadily, with low unemployment and a strong labor market, although inflation remains slightly above the 2% target [1] - The Fed is committed to achieving maximum employment and the 2% inflation target, while closely monitoring data and economic outlook for future policy adjustments [1] Group 2 - The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) shows a significant downward adjustment in GDP growth expectations for the next three years, with median growth rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 revised to 1.4%, 1.6%, and 1.8%, respectively, down from 1.7%, 1.8%, and 1.8% [3] - Unemployment rate expectations have been raised, with median rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 now at 4.5%, 4.5%, and 4.4%, compared to previous expectations of 4.4%, 4.3%, and 4.3% [3] - Inflation expectations have also been increased, with median PCE and core PCE inflation rates for 2025 set at 3.0% and 3.1%, and for 2026 and 2027 at 2.4% and 2.1%, respectively, all above the Fed's 2% inflation target [3] Group 3 - The dot plot indicates that the median rate expectation for the end of 2024 is between 3.75% and 4.00%, suggesting a potential cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points from the current level, consistent with the March meeting results [3] - For the end of 2026, the median rate expectation is between 3.50% and 3.75%, which is higher than the previous range of 3.25% to 3.50%, indicating a narrowing of the expected rate cut from 50 basis points to 25 basis points [3]
摩根资产管理:美联储再度维持利率不变 年内或再降息2次
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-19 02:04
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained its policy interest rate, but revised down its economic growth forecast for the year while raising inflation expectations [1][2] - The latest dot plot indicates a potential for two rate cuts this year, although there is an increase in the number of members predicting no cuts [1][2] - The Fed's updated economic projections show a GDP growth rate of 1.4% for this year and an unemployment rate of 4.5% for 2025 and 2026 [1][2] Group 2 - Morgan Asset Management noted that the Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged aligns with market expectations, reflecting a shift in language regarding economic uncertainty [2] - The Fed's economic outlook suggests that tariff-related policies may lead to rising inflation and economic downturn [2] - Investors are advised to build resilient portfolios in response to the current uncertain environment, focusing on diversification and balanced investment strategies [3]
美联储FOMC经济预期:2025、2026、2027年底失业率预期中值分别为4.5%、4.5%、4.4%。(3月预期分别为4.4%、4.3%、4.3%)
news flash· 2025-06-18 18:07
Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's FOMC has updated its economic projections for the unemployment rate at the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027, with median expectations of 4.5%, 4.5%, and 4.4% respectively, indicating a slight increase from the previous projections of 4.4%, 4.3%, and 4.3% made in March [1] Summary by Category - **Unemployment Rate Projections** - The median unemployment rate forecast for the end of 2025 is 4.5% [1] - The median unemployment rate forecast for the end of 2026 is 4.5% [1] - The median unemployment rate forecast for the end of 2027 is 4.4% [1] - Previous projections from March indicated lower rates of 4.4% for 2025, 4.3% for 2026, and 4.3% for 2027 [1]
6月19日电,美联储FOMC经济预期显示,2025、2026、2027年底失业率预期中值分别为4.5%、4.5%、4.4%;3月预期分别为4.4%、4.3%、4.3%。
news flash· 2025-06-18 18:06
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's FOMC economic projections indicate a slight increase in the unemployment rate expectations for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 compared to previous forecasts [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Projections - The median unemployment rate expectations for the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 4.5%, 4.5%, and 4.4% respectively [1] - In March, the unemployment rate expectations were lower at 4.4%, 4.3%, and 4.3% for the same years [1]