Core Insights - Inflation expectations are rising, with one-year expectations increasing by 0.2% to 3.4%, the highest since April 2025 [2] - Concerns about unemployment are also increasing, with expectations for higher unemployment rising by two percentage points to 41.1%, the highest since April 2025 [3] Inflation Expectations - One-year inflation expectations rose to 3.4%, while three-year expectations remained unchanged at 3% [2] - Five-year inflation expectations increased by 0.1% to 3%, the highest since May 2024 [2] - Expectations for food prices have reached their highest level since March 2023 [2] Labor Market Insights - Earnings growth expectations have declined by 0.1% to 2.4%, marking the third consecutive decline and the lowest since May 2021 [3] - Job loss expectations increased by 0.4% to 14.9%, the highest since April 2025 [4] - Despite rising job loss expectations, the outlook for finding a job improved by 2.5 points, although it remains near pandemic lows [4] Spending and Economic Outlook - Spending growth expectations have decreased by 0.3% to 4.7% [5] - The Federal Reserve is facing challenges regarding its inflation target, as the five-year inflation outlook has remained at 3% for an extended period [7] - There are discussions about the impact of supply-side policies and immigration changes on inflation expectations [8]

25 basis point rate cut. The Federal Reserve lowering their benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point to a new range of four to four and a quarter percent and signaling two more rate cuts this year. The decision was not unanimous.Newly minted Fed Governor Steven Myron dissented preferring to cut by 50 basis points instead of 25. As for the breakdown for rate projections this year, nine officials seeing three rate cuts in total this year. Six officials seeing one cut, one saw no cuts, and one saw ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% for the fourth consecutive time since November of the previous year, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1] - The Fed's statement highlights that economic activity is expanding steadily, with low unemployment and a strong labor market, although inflation remains slightly above the 2% target [1] - The Fed is committed to achieving maximum employment and the 2% inflation target, while closely monitoring data and economic outlook for future policy adjustments [1] Group 2 - The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) shows a significant downward adjustment in GDP growth expectations for the next three years, with median growth rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 revised to 1.4%, 1.6%, and 1.8%, respectively, down from 1.7%, 1.8%, and 1.8% [3] - Unemployment rate expectations have been raised, with median rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 now at 4.5%, 4.5%, and 4.4%, compared to previous expectations of 4.4%, 4.3%, and 4.3% [3] - Inflation expectations have also been increased, with median PCE and core PCE inflation rates for 2025 set at 3.0% and 3.1%, and for 2026 and 2027 at 2.4% and 2.1%, respectively, all above the Fed's 2% inflation target [3] Group 3 - The dot plot indicates that the median rate expectation for the end of 2024 is between 3.75% and 4.00%, suggesting a potential cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points from the current level, consistent with the March meeting results [3] - For the end of 2026, the median rate expectation is between 3.50% and 3.75%, which is higher than the previous range of 3.25% to 3.50%, indicating a narrowing of the expected rate cut from 50 basis points to 25 basis points [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained its policy interest rate, but revised down its economic growth forecast for the year while raising inflation expectations [1][2] - The latest dot plot indicates a potential for two rate cuts this year, although there is an increase in the number of members predicting no cuts [1][2] - The Fed's updated economic projections show a GDP growth rate of 1.4% for this year and an unemployment rate of 4.5% for 2025 and 2026 [1][2] Group 2 - Morgan Asset Management noted that the Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged aligns with market expectations, reflecting a shift in language regarding economic uncertainty [2] - The Fed's economic outlook suggests that tariff-related policies may lead to rising inflation and economic downturn [2] - Investors are advised to build resilient portfolios in response to the current uncertain environment, focusing on diversification and balanced investment strategies [3]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's FOMC has updated its economic projections for the unemployment rate at the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027, with median expectations of 4.5%, 4.5%, and 4.4% respectively, indicating a slight increase from the previous projections of 4.4%, 4.3%, and 4.3% made in March [1] Summary by Category - **Unemployment Rate Projections** - The median unemployment rate forecast for the end of 2025 is 4.5% [1] - The median unemployment rate forecast for the end of 2026 is 4.5% [1] - The median unemployment rate forecast for the end of 2027 is 4.4% [1] - Previous projections from March indicated lower rates of 4.4% for 2025, 4.3% for 2026, and 4.3% for 2027 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's FOMC economic projections indicate a slight increase in the unemployment rate expectations for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 compared to previous forecasts [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Projections - The median unemployment rate expectations for the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 4.5%, 4.5%, and 4.4% respectively [1] - In March, the unemployment rate expectations were lower at 4.4%, 4.3%, and 4.3% for the same years [1]