Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% for the fourth consecutive time since November of the previous year, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1] - The Fed's statement highlights that economic activity is expanding steadily, with low unemployment and a strong labor market, although inflation remains slightly above the 2% target [1] - The Fed is committed to achieving maximum employment and the 2% inflation target, while closely monitoring data and economic outlook for future policy adjustments [1] Group 2 - The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) shows a significant downward adjustment in GDP growth expectations for the next three years, with median growth rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 revised to 1.4%, 1.6%, and 1.8%, respectively, down from 1.7%, 1.8%, and 1.8% [3] - Unemployment rate expectations have been raised, with median rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 now at 4.5%, 4.5%, and 4.4%, compared to previous expectations of 4.4%, 4.3%, and 4.3% [3] - Inflation expectations have also been increased, with median PCE and core PCE inflation rates for 2025 set at 3.0% and 3.1%, and for 2026 and 2027 at 2.4% and 2.1%, respectively, all above the Fed's 2% inflation target [3] Group 3 - The dot plot indicates that the median rate expectation for the end of 2024 is between 3.75% and 4.00%, suggesting a potential cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points from the current level, consistent with the March meeting results [3] - For the end of 2026, the median rate expectation is between 3.50% and 3.75%, which is higher than the previous range of 3.25% to 3.50%, indicating a narrowing of the expected rate cut from 50 basis points to 25 basis points [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained its policy interest rate, but revised down its economic growth forecast for the year while raising inflation expectations [1][2] - The latest dot plot indicates a potential for two rate cuts this year, although there is an increase in the number of members predicting no cuts [1][2] - The Fed's updated economic projections show a GDP growth rate of 1.4% for this year and an unemployment rate of 4.5% for 2025 and 2026 [1][2] Group 2 - Morgan Asset Management noted that the Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged aligns with market expectations, reflecting a shift in language regarding economic uncertainty [2] - The Fed's economic outlook suggests that tariff-related policies may lead to rising inflation and economic downturn [2] - Investors are advised to build resilient portfolios in response to the current uncertain environment, focusing on diversification and balanced investment strategies [3]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's FOMC has updated its economic projections for the unemployment rate at the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027, with median expectations of 4.5%, 4.5%, and 4.4% respectively, indicating a slight increase from the previous projections of 4.4%, 4.3%, and 4.3% made in March [1] Summary by Category - **Unemployment Rate Projections** - The median unemployment rate forecast for the end of 2025 is 4.5% [1] - The median unemployment rate forecast for the end of 2026 is 4.5% [1] - The median unemployment rate forecast for the end of 2027 is 4.4% [1] - Previous projections from March indicated lower rates of 4.4% for 2025, 4.3% for 2026, and 4.3% for 2027 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's FOMC economic projections indicate a slight increase in the unemployment rate expectations for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 compared to previous forecasts [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Projections - The median unemployment rate expectations for the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 4.5%, 4.5%, and 4.4% respectively [1] - In March, the unemployment rate expectations were lower at 4.4%, 4.3%, and 4.3% for the same years [1]