1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75% and paused rate cuts for the second consecutive time in 2026. The Fed continued its cautious tone and will maintain a "wait - and - see" attitude due to complex internal and external situations. The threshold for rate cuts has significantly increased, and the Fed will not consider rate cuts without further improvement in inflation. Although rate hikes are not the baseline scenario, internal discussions among officials have increased. The expectation of rate cuts within the year may converge, and attention should be paid to the persistence of the Middle East situation and high oil prices [5][7][29] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Statement - Overall, it changed little compared to January. The description of the unemployment rate was adjusted from "showing certain signs of stabilization" to "little change in recent months", and the statement "the impact of the development of the Middle East situation on the US economy is uncertain" was added. Only one person voted against the decision, and Fed Governor Milan voted against for the fifth consecutive time, advocating a 25 - basis - point rate cut [13][14] 3.2 Economic Forecast - **GDP Growth**: The GDP growth expectations for 2026 - 2028 and the long - term were raised. The expected real GDP growth rates for 2026, 2027, 2028, and the long - term are 2.4% (previous value 2.3%), 2.3% (previous value 2.0%), 2.1% (previous value 1.9%), and 2.0% (previous value 1.8%) respectively [2][15] - **Unemployment**: The unemployment rate expectation for 2027 was raised by 0.1 percentage point to 4.3%, while the unemployment rates in 2026 and 2028 remained at 4.4% and 4.2% respectively [2][15] - **Inflation**: The PCE inflation and core PCE inflation expectations for this year and next year were raised. In 2026, the PCE and core PCE expectations were raised by 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points to 2.7% and 2.7% respectively. In 2027, both PCE inflation and core PCE inflation expectations were raised by 0.1 percentage point to 2.2% [2][15] - **Dot Plot**: The March dot plot predicts one rate cut each in 2026 and 2027, with the median remaining the same as in December. The Fed's interest rate outlook for the next three years remained basically unchanged, indicating only one rate cut in 2026 and 2027. The long - term interest rate median was raised to around 3.1%, with less than two rate - cut spaces. The high dispersion of officials' forecasts for 2027 indicates significant differences in their views on the subsequent rate - cut amplitude, increasing policy uncertainty [3][18] 3.3 Labor Market - The employment market is in a fragile balance of weak supply and demand, with certain downward risks. Current employment growth is at a low level, labor demand has weakened significantly, and labor supply has declined simultaneously due to factors such as immigration. In February, the number of new non - farm employment in the US decreased by 92,000. Although the unemployment rate has basically remained around 4.4% since September 2025, the Fed warned that energy shocks may have a negative impact on employment and the overall economy [5][20] 3.4 Inflation - Tariffs and energy prices are putting double pressure on inflation, and the process of inflation decline has slowed down. The core CPI in the US in February dropped to the lowest level in nearly five years, but the oil - price shock caused by the Middle East situation was not reflected in the February data. The Fed raised the inflation expectations for this year and next year. The inflation cooling process in the US has significantly slowed down, short - term inflation expectations have rebounded in recent weeks, and commodity inflation may not decline significantly until mid - year [5][24]

Core Viewpoint - The Australian government has revised its economic forecasts for the 2025-26 fiscal year, indicating an increase in inflation and unemployment expectations while maintaining the real GDP growth forecast unchanged [1] Economic Forecast Adjustments - Inflation expectation for the 2025-26 fiscal year has been raised from 3.0% to 3.75% [1] - Unemployment rate expectation has been increased from 4.25% to 4.5% [1] - Nominal GDP growth expectation has been adjusted from 3.25% to 5.25% [1] - The real GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 2.25% [1] Fiscal Deficit and Cash Balance - The projected cash balance deficit for Australia by the end of the 2025-26 fiscal year is expected to be AUD 36.8 billion (approximately USD 24.4 billion), which is lower than the previous forecast of AUD 42.2 billion [1] Economic Resilience and Investment Outlook - The Australian economy is reportedly responding strongly to challenges, with a recovery in the private sector accelerating [1] - The improvement in business investment prospects in the non-mining sector is identified as a key driver, with expectations that non-mining business investment will reach historical highs in the coming years [1]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the third consecutive rate cut, bringing the target range to 3.50% to 3.75%[1] - Starting December 12, the Fed will initiate a monthly purchase plan of approximately $40 billion in short-term Treasury bonds to maintain liquidity in the banking system[3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate has slightly increased to 4.4% as of September, higher than market expectations, despite non-farm payrolls adding 119,000 jobs, exceeding the forecast of 50,000[2] - GDP growth forecasts for 2025, 2026, 2027, and 2028 have been revised upward to 1.7%, 2.3%, 2.0%, and 1.9% respectively, compared to previous estimates of 1.6%, 1.8%, 1.9%, and 1.8%[4] - PCE inflation expectations for 2025 and 2026 have been lowered to 2.9% and 2.4%, down from 3.0% and 2.6% respectively, while core PCE inflation expectations remain stable[4] Group 3: Future Projections - The median interest rate forecast remains unchanged for 2025, 2026, 2027, and 2028 at 3.6%, 3.4%, 3.1%, and 3.1% respectively[5] - The dot plot indicates a consensus for a potential additional 25 basis point cut next year, with some members predicting a more aggressive reduction[8] Group 4: Market Reactions - U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 1.05%, S&P 500 up 0.67%, and Nasdaq up 0.33% following the Fed's announcement[10] - Gold prices increased by 0.52% to $4,258.30 per ounce, while the U.S. dollar index fell by 0.60% to 98.64[10]

Core Insights - Inflation expectations are rising, with one-year expectations increasing by 0.2% to 3.4%, the highest since April 2025 [2] - Concerns about unemployment are also increasing, with expectations for higher unemployment rising by two percentage points to 41.1%, the highest since April 2025 [3] Inflation Expectations - One-year inflation expectations rose to 3.4%, while three-year expectations remained unchanged at 3% [2] - Five-year inflation expectations increased by 0.1% to 3%, the highest since May 2024 [2] - Expectations for food prices have reached their highest level since March 2023 [2] Labor Market Insights - Earnings growth expectations have declined by 0.1% to 2.4%, marking the third consecutive decline and the lowest since May 2021 [3] - Job loss expectations increased by 0.4% to 14.9%, the highest since April 2025 [4] - Despite rising job loss expectations, the outlook for finding a job improved by 2.5 points, although it remains near pandemic lows [4] Spending and Economic Outlook - Spending growth expectations have decreased by 0.3% to 4.7% [5] - The Federal Reserve is facing challenges regarding its inflation target, as the five-year inflation outlook has remained at 3% for an extended period [7] - There are discussions about the impact of supply-side policies and immigration changes on inflation expectations [8]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve has lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4% to 4.25%, with indications of two more rate cuts expected this year [1] - The decision was not unanimous, with dissent from newly appointed Fed Governor Steven Myron, who preferred a 50 basis point cut [2] - The Fed's economic outlook has improved, projecting GDP growth of 1.6% this year and 1.8% next year, while inflation is expected to remain at 3.1% this year and decrease to 2.6% next year [3][4] Rate Projections - Nine Fed officials anticipate three rate cuts this year, while six expect only one cut, and one official, presumably Myron, predicts six cuts [2] - For next year, the median expectation is for just one additional rate cut [3] Labor Market Insights - The unemployment rate is projected to remain at 4.5% this year, with a slight decrease to 4.4% next year, reflecting concerns about labor market weakness [4] - Fed officials acknowledged a slowdown in job gains and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, indicating a shift from previous assessments of a solid job market [4][5] Economic Conditions - The Fed is concerned about the softening labor market and its impact on consumer spending, with mixed signals regarding economic activity [7][8] - There are conflicting signals in retail sales, with nominal growth suggesting strong consumer spending, but volume declines in certain sectors indicate underlying weaknesses [16][17] Future Considerations - The Fed's approach to rate cuts is characterized by a careful assessment of incoming data and evolving economic conditions, particularly regarding labor market risks [5][26] - The potential for tax refunds and corporate incentives next year could boost consumption and growth, despite current inflationary pressures [12][21]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% for the fourth consecutive time since November of the previous year, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1] - The Fed's statement highlights that economic activity is expanding steadily, with low unemployment and a strong labor market, although inflation remains slightly above the 2% target [1] - The Fed is committed to achieving maximum employment and the 2% inflation target, while closely monitoring data and economic outlook for future policy adjustments [1] Group 2 - The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) shows a significant downward adjustment in GDP growth expectations for the next three years, with median growth rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 revised to 1.4%, 1.6%, and 1.8%, respectively, down from 1.7%, 1.8%, and 1.8% [3] - Unemployment rate expectations have been raised, with median rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 now at 4.5%, 4.5%, and 4.4%, compared to previous expectations of 4.4%, 4.3%, and 4.3% [3] - Inflation expectations have also been increased, with median PCE and core PCE inflation rates for 2025 set at 3.0% and 3.1%, and for 2026 and 2027 at 2.4% and 2.1%, respectively, all above the Fed's 2% inflation target [3] Group 3 - The dot plot indicates that the median rate expectation for the end of 2024 is between 3.75% and 4.00%, suggesting a potential cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points from the current level, consistent with the March meeting results [3] - For the end of 2026, the median rate expectation is between 3.50% and 3.75%, which is higher than the previous range of 3.25% to 3.50%, indicating a narrowing of the expected rate cut from 50 basis points to 25 basis points [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained its policy interest rate, but revised down its economic growth forecast for the year while raising inflation expectations [1][2] - The latest dot plot indicates a potential for two rate cuts this year, although there is an increase in the number of members predicting no cuts [1][2] - The Fed's updated economic projections show a GDP growth rate of 1.4% for this year and an unemployment rate of 4.5% for 2025 and 2026 [1][2] Group 2 - Morgan Asset Management noted that the Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged aligns with market expectations, reflecting a shift in language regarding economic uncertainty [2] - The Fed's economic outlook suggests that tariff-related policies may lead to rising inflation and economic downturn [2] - Investors are advised to build resilient portfolios in response to the current uncertain environment, focusing on diversification and balanced investment strategies [3]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's FOMC has updated its economic projections for the unemployment rate at the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027, with median expectations of 4.5%, 4.5%, and 4.4% respectively, indicating a slight increase from the previous projections of 4.4%, 4.3%, and 4.3% made in March [1] Summary by Category - **Unemployment Rate Projections** - The median unemployment rate forecast for the end of 2025 is 4.5% [1] - The median unemployment rate forecast for the end of 2026 is 4.5% [1] - The median unemployment rate forecast for the end of 2027 is 4.4% [1] - Previous projections from March indicated lower rates of 4.4% for 2025, 4.3% for 2026, and 4.3% for 2027 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's FOMC economic projections indicate a slight increase in the unemployment rate expectations for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 compared to previous forecasts [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Projections - The median unemployment rate expectations for the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 4.5%, 4.5%, and 4.4% respectively [1] - In March, the unemployment rate expectations were lower at 4.4%, 4.3%, and 4.3% for the same years [1]