Core Insights - The article provides a market analysis focusing on the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, and the US Dollar Index Futures, indicating trends and potential investment opportunities in these currencies [1] Group 1: Australian Dollar Analysis - The Australian Dollar's performance against the US Dollar is analyzed, highlighting its fluctuations and potential impacts on trade and investment [1] - Key economic indicators influencing the Australian Dollar are discussed, including commodity prices and interest rate changes [1] Group 2: New Zealand Dollar Analysis - The New Zealand Dollar's exchange rate with the US Dollar is examined, with emphasis on its correlation with agricultural exports and global market trends [1] - Insights into the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy and its effects on the currency's strength are provided [1] Group 3: US Dollar Index Futures - The US Dollar Index Futures are analyzed, showcasing their role as a benchmark for the dollar's performance against a basket of currencies [1] - Market sentiment and economic data releases that could influence the US Dollar Index are highlighted, indicating potential volatility [1]

Macroeconomic & Trade Dynamics - China's Jan-June trade surplus reached CNY 4210 billion [1] - China's trade resisted pressure in the first half of the year [1] - Discussions are ongoing regarding trade tensions with the EU [1] - Potential meeting between Xi Jinping and Trump is anticipated [1] - Price wars in China are considered more dangerous than tariffs [1] Geopolitical Relations - Australia is pursuing 'practical cooperation' with China [1] - The relationship with China is considered 'very important' [1] - Focus on China-Australia ties [1] Economic Outlook - Examination of the global economic outlook [1] - Monitoring of US CPI data [1] Social Trends - 'Anti-Involution' is identified as a new buzzword in China [1]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a baseline forecast of global growth slowing from 3.5% in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025, with specific growth rates for major economies outlined [7][8][70]. Core Insights - The broad imposition of tariffs by the US is identified as a structural shock to global trade, significantly impacting growth across various economies [5][6]. - The report highlights that the trade shock affects economies simultaneously, pushing them below potential growth levels, with the US experiencing a notable decline in real GDP growth from 2.5% in 2024 to 1.0% in both 2025 and 2026 [7][74]. - China is projected to see a slowdown in real growth by approximately 0.5 percentage points in 2025 compared to 2024, with persistent deflation expected [7][17]. - India is noted as the fastest-growing economy in the coverage, with real GDP growth forecasted at 5.9% in 2025 and 6.4% in 2026 [7][68]. Summary by Sections Growth – A Widespread Deceleration - Global growth is forecasted to decelerate significantly, with the US, Euro area, and China all experiencing reduced growth rates due to trade shocks and other economic factors [7][70]. - The report anticipates that the US will face a step down in real GDP growth, while the Euro area will not exceed 1% growth throughout the forecast period [7][8]. Inflation Divergence - The report discusses a divergence in inflation trends, with the US experiencing a temporary boost in inflation due to tariffs, while other regions like the Euro area and Japan see inflation moderating [16][17]. - Core PCE inflation in the US is expected to peak at 4.5% before declining, remaining above the Federal Reserve's target throughout 2026 [16][17]. Monetary Policy – The Fed in a Bind - Central banks are expected to react to slower growth and softer inflation, with the Federal Reserve likely to maintain its policy stance until inflation peaks [18][19]. - The report forecasts that the Fed will restart its easing cycle in March 2026, while the ECB is expected to continue its easing cycle, bringing the policy rate below neutral [18][19]. Global Trade – A New Paradigm - The report emphasizes that the trade shock is a significant factor affecting global economic performance, with uncertainty in trade policy leading to reduced capital expenditure decisions globally [6][74]. - The impact of tariffs is expected to create a level shift in prices, affecting consumption patterns and overall economic growth [61][62].