Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the potential impact of stablecoins on the financial system, highlighting their role as a bridge between decentralized finance (DeFi) and traditional finance [3] - The recent passage of stablecoin legislation in the United States and Hong Kong marks a significant step in establishing regulatory frameworks for stablecoins, filling a regulatory gap in this area [3] - Stablecoins are seen as crucial infrastructure for DeFi, and their regulation by major economies like the US and Hong Kong indicates a move towards integrating cryptocurrencies into the mainstream financial system [3] Group 2 - The article discusses the implications of the recent global trade tensions and the unusual market behaviors observed, such as traditional safe-haven assets no longer being secure and the reversal of correlations between US Treasury bonds and other assets [7] - It suggests that these anomalies can be better understood through the lens of a restructuring international monetary order, where shifts in capital flows and market dynamics overshadow individual asset fundamentals [7] - The report focuses on the driving factors and operational patterns of this restructuring, exploring its effects on global asset pricing and policy implications [7] Group 3 - The outlook for the second half of 2025 indicates a convergence of economic momentum between the US and non-US regions, primarily driven by a slowdown in the US economy [11] - Non-US regions are expected to have some advantages due to relatively loose monetary policies and remaining output gaps, although recovery may face uncertainties and constraints [11] - The article expresses a more favorable view on non-US opportunities, particularly in the European market, while suggesting a balanced allocation strategy across regions [11] Group 4 - The article analyzes the impact of Hibor (Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate) on the Hong Kong stock market, noting that Hibor's significant decline since early May indicates a temporary liquidity surplus in Hong Kong dollars [15] - This liquidity surplus is believed to influence market trends, especially in growth sectors like new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals, despite the overall market underperforming compared to global benchmarks [15] - The report raises questions about the mechanisms through which Hibor's decline affects the stock market and speculates on its future trajectory [15]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has experienced fluctuations due to the impact of "reciprocal tariffs," with the Hang Seng Index dropping below the emotional low point from the previous trade friction, but stabilizing around the support level of 20,500 points before rebounding. Recent optimism in U.S.-China tariff negotiations and the performance of sectors like new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals have contributed to a new round of market increases, although the index has struggled to break through the 23,000-24,000 range [1][2][4]. Group 1 - Since the implementation of reciprocal tariffs on April 2, the Hong Kong stock market has underperformed compared to global markets, with increasing concentration and crowding in sectors such as new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, essential retail, and banking, while sectors like discretionary retail and consumer services lagged behind [1][2][4]. - The sharp decline in Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (Hibor) since early May, with the 1-month Hibor dropping from 4.1% to 0.6%, indicates a significant increase in short-term liquidity, which has positively influenced market trends, particularly for growth stocks concentrated in new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals [8][9][25]. - The decline in Hibor is attributed to the automatic operations of the currency board system under the linked exchange rate regime, with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) injecting substantial liquidity to maintain the currency peg, resulting in a significant drop in Hibor rates [11][14][17]. Group 2 - The HKMA's liquidity injection was notably larger than historical norms, with a total of 1,294 billion HKD injected in just four days, leading to a rapid decline in the 1-month Hibor to 0.5% and a swift depreciation of the Hong Kong dollar towards the weak end of the peg [18][20][34]. - The influx of liquidity, combined with a weaker U.S. dollar and positive signals from U.S.-China negotiations, has supported the overall performance of the Hong Kong stock market, particularly benefiting crowded trades in growth sectors [26][30][41]. - The current market environment is characterized by an excess of liquidity ("funding boom") and limited returns ("asset scarcity"), leading to concentrated trading in sectors like new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals, with trading volumes reaching historical highs [27][28][49]. Group 3 - The outlook for Hibor suggests that it is unlikely to decrease further, with potential tightening of liquidity expected as the HKMA may need to intervene to maintain the weak end of the peg, especially as the Hong Kong dollar approaches the 7.85 threshold [38][41]. - The market may face challenges due to the potential for liquidity tightening, the impact of ongoing U.S.-China tariff negotiations, and the pressure from a high number of IPOs and placements, which could increase supply and affect stock performance [41][42][46]. - Investors are advised to consider adjusting their positions, potentially shifting towards dividend-paying stocks or waiting for opportunities to acquire quality assets at lower costs, particularly in light of the current market volatility [50].