进入 2026 年，市场对美国经济的判断正在悄然发生变化。年初时，不少投资者还在讨论 "美国经济是否再度走强"" 降息是 不是被高估了 "，但随着一系列就业与劳动力数据陆续出炉，这种乐观预期开始被反复修正。 最新公布的 12 月 JOLTS 职位空缺数据，就是一个绕不开的关键信号。 阿萨交易学院分析师 Eden 指出，对于很多刚进行黄金交易入门学习的投资者来说，JOLTS 听起来并不如非农、CPI 那样 "耳熟"，但在美联储的政策框架中，它却是一个分量不轻的指标。这一次数据大幅不及预期，也让市场重新评估美国劳动 力市场的真实状态。 一、JOLTS 数据解读指南 JOLTS，全称是职位空缺与劳动力流动调查，它反映的不是已经发生的就业结果，而是企业 "愿不愿意招人"。从逻辑上 看，这个指标更偏向前瞻性。12 月美国职位空缺降至 654.2 万人，不仅显著低于市场预期，也刷新了五年多来的最低水 平。 同时，前一个月的数据被明显下修，意味着用工需求的回落并非偶发，而是延续性的变化。如果把时间拉长来看，这个变 化更加直观。2024 年底，美国职位空缺大约在 750 万左右，一年时间减少了近 100 万个岗位。相比疫情后 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news indicates that the U.S. job market is experiencing a cooling trend, with job vacancies slightly increasing while hiring numbers are declining [3] - In October 2025, the number of job vacancies in the U.S. was 7.67 million, slightly above the 7.615 million from the same month last year and the 7.658 million in September [3] - The number of hires in October was 5.149 million, down from 5.367 million in September and 5.35 million in October of the previous year [3] Group 2 - The number of resignations in October was 2.941 million, which represents a decrease of 187,000 month-over-month and 276,000 year-over-year [3] - The most significant year-over-year declines in resignations were observed in the accommodation and food services sector, as well as in the healthcare and social assistance sector, with decreases of 136,000 and 114,000 respectively [3] - The number of layoffs and discharges increased to 1.854 million in October, marking an increase of 73,000 month-over-month and 66,000 year-over-year, the highest level since January 2023 [3] Group 3 - The recent trend in gold futures shows a slight upward movement, currently trading around 957.44 yuan per gram, with a 0.37% increase [1] - The gold futures have fluctuated between a high of 959.02 yuan per gram and a low of 952.22 yuan per gram, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1] - Technical analysis suggests that gold futures are in a consolidation phase, with key resistance at 972 yuan and support at 952 yuan, with a potential downward target of 945 yuan if the support is breached [4]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. Q2 GDP data may show a strong rebound on paper, but it is likely misleading due to underlying weaknesses in consumer spending and business investment, indicating a slowdown in the economy's potential momentum [1][2]. Economic Growth and Trade - The anticipated Q2 GDP growth is projected at 2.4%, reversing the Q1 contraction of 0.5%, with UBS raising its forecast to 2.6% [1][2]. - This growth is primarily driven by a significant contribution from net exports, expected to add up to 4.1 percentage points to GDP growth, following a sharp decline in imports, which are projected to drop over 25% [2][5]. Domestic Demand and Consumer Spending - Domestic demand, which constitutes over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, is showing concerning signs, with consumer spending expected to only achieve a modest recovery in Q2 after stagnation in Q1 [7]. - Business investment in equipment is also anticipated to remain flat or potentially decline, reflecting weak consumer confidence, as indicated by a slight increase in the consumer confidence index to 97.2, still below the average of 104.5 for 2024 [7][8]. Labor Market and Federal Reserve Policy - The labor market's performance is crucial for the Federal Reserve's policy decisions, with expectations that the Fed will maintain its interest rate range of 4.25%-4.50% amid mixed economic signals [8]. - Job openings have decreased significantly, with June seeing a reduction of 275,000 positions, bringing the total to 7.44 million, and the hiring rate nearing the lowest point of the current expansion cycle [8][11]. Long-term Economic Challenges - The long-term outlook for the U.S. economy faces structural challenges, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating that recent fiscal policies will increase the national debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, while only providing a modest GDP boost of 0.5% [11].