朋友們，2025年10月7日華爾街 早盤時間 我們來更,比特幣的行情 這個是比特幣的周線圖 從周線級別來看 我們發現好像它受到了一點阻礙 有那麼一點漲不上去的感覺 我們還是把MACD背離拿出來看一下 如果說這邊又慢慢的出現了一個金叉 但是最後又變成了一個死叉 也就是說再度的出現這種高點高點 但是不能夠升高的感覺 而且價格還在升高 那這樣的一種三重背離的看跌MACD 我會覺得不是一個特別好的狀態 因為上一次出現的背離只有兩重 我們可以看到價格更高 但是MACD卻不能夠來到更高 然後之後出現了很大幅度的下跌 那麼如果說你總是看漲 那麼你可能會去找很多的因素來證明 上次是例外 跟這次不一樣好吧 姑且這樣看沒關系 每個人都可以有自己的觀點 我們還是來到日線級別 給大家看一看日線級別 那麼你可以看到之前的周日往上面沖 沒有站上去 然後再繼續往上沖 然後有點跌下來的感覺 如果說k線就走成這個樣子 今天日線收成這個樣子 你說這是很強勢嗎 我個人不覺 我個人覺得你可以看到在來到這邊 往上面突破的時候 成交量其實是有的 按道理來說成交量如果說在階段性的低點 比如說在這邊比較的多 然後上面慢慢的減少 算是一個比較正常的情況 但如 ...

Market Analysis & Trading Signals - Bitcoin experienced a dip below previous lows before rebounding, presenting a buying opportunity based on a "break below and reclaim" strategy [1] - Ethereum showed a similar pattern, breaking below a descending trendline and then rapidly rising, indicating a potential bullish signal [2] - The analyst suggests two trading plans for Ethereum: If it breaks through the resistance level and doesn't fall back, continue to be bullish; if it breaks through and quickly falls back, consider a bearish position [2] - The analyst emphasizes the importance of observing price action and volume, particularly at the $120,000 level for Bitcoin, to identify potential distribution patterns [1] Risk Management & Potential Scenarios - The analyst is still cautious about a potential Wyckoff distribution scenario, suggesting awareness of top risks if clear distribution patterns emerge [1] - A potential MACD divergence on the weekly chart for Bitcoin is noted, indicating a possible weakening of the upward trend [1] - The analyst advises against chasing the price after a $5,000 surge and warns of the proximity to the 0618% Fibonacci retracement level [1] - The analyst suggests taking partial profits around the $120,000 level for Bitcoin and considering short positions if bearish divergence appears [1] General Trading Philosophy - The analyst stresses the importance of patience and avoiding panic during market dips, viewing them as potential buying opportunities [1] - The analyst advises against blindly following news and instead focusing on understanding market mechanics and liquidity grabs [1] - The analyst emphasizes adapting to market trends rather than rigidly sticking to personal predictions, advocating for an open mind and flexible strategy [2]

Market Analysis - Bitcoin's daily chart shows a potential deceptive rebound, with a high probability of retesting previous lows and breaking through the support level around previous highs [1] - A break below the previous low could trigger a significant downward trend, especially considering the approaching MACD death cross on the weekly chart, reminiscent of the situation at $60,000 that led to a drop to $10,000 [1] - If Bitcoin breaks below and then recovers, a rally to retest the high point is possible, followed by consolidation, during which a Wyckoff distribution pattern should be monitored [1] - Ethereum is currently showing more strength than Bitcoin, typical of the later stages of a bull market, but any rally should be viewed as a "last hurrah" with clear profit-taking plans [1] Technical Indicators & Trading Strategy - Traders should be cautious of relying too heavily on indicators, as both bullish and bearish signals can be found at any time; the key is to use familiar indicators consistently and understand when to apply them [1] - For Ethereum, a strong hourly candlestick pattern after breaking and recovering from previous lows, and testing the descending trend line, could signal a potential rebound [1]

朋友們大家好，大家早上中午晚上好 這裡是提阿非羅 現在是2025年 8月19日華爾街午盤時間 我們來更新比特幣的行情 這個是比特幣的日線圖 從日線級別來看我們發現比特幣 好像沒有 出現非常像樣的反彈 而是急切的繼續在往下跌 那麼我非常留意的就是前面這一帶的高點 那麼這一帶的高點是不能夠被跌回來的 如果說它跌回來了 我想說周線級別跌的交叉 很可能馬上就會發生 我們來看一下好像越來越臨近了的感覺 那麼如果說跌下來 我會覺得接下來會有比較大幅度的下跌 那麼如果說它小級別還可以往下面跌一下 迅速的收回來 我會認為這邊仍然有可能可能會出現反彈 然後在這邊做更長時間的盤整 這樣的一個盤整我到時候就會留意 它有沒有可能是一個 威科夫的派發區間 那麼目前來說做了一次網上面的假突破 是不是完完全全的派發完了 還是說有可能繼續盤整 然後再度的沖高 那麼任何時候在這樣一個區間內的沖高 我個人都覺得是非常值得留意 看有沒有做空機會的 為什麼除了周線級別的MACD背離以外 我們也可以看到這邊的波波浪 好像是一次一次的往上走 而且我昨天畫了兩個非常有意思的圖 一個有沒有可能底下是一個盤整的區間 還不算是一個波浪式的上漲 那麼有沒有可能上 ...

Market Analysis - Bitcoin's daily chart suggests a potential downward trend, with a possible break of previous lows [1] - A key multi-party critical point is identified, with the analyst considering shorting Bitcoin futures to hedge spot holdings if it breaks down [1] - The analysis highlights the importance of watching for a strong rebound with high volume, similar to previous patterns, to confirm continued upward momentum [1] - Ethereum is facing resistance around $4,000, influenced by Bitcoin's movements and broader market trends [2] Technical Indicators and Patterns - The analysis points out a potential MACD bearish divergence on the weekly chart, which could indicate a larger correction if key levels are breached [1] - The report emphasizes the significance of unfilled gaps in Bitcoin futures, noting that these gaps often get filled before further price movements [1] - The analyst suggests that if Bitcoin price rebounds and closes above the broken parallel bottom and fills the gap, it will be a strong signal [1] External Factors - Coinbase's disappointing earnings, with an 8% after-hours drop and a further 16% decline, contributed to the overall market downturn [2] - Concerns about excessive optimism and potential bubbles in AI-related industries also contributed to the broader market sell-off [2] Trading Strategy - The analyst is considering shorting Bitcoin futures to hedge spot holdings, but will not sell spot Bitcoin [1] - The analyst suggests waiting for smaller-scale bullish signals in Bitcoin, such as a new high and a strong bullish candle, before considering long positions [2]

Group 1 - Meituan's stock price has been under pressure, currently trading at 128.5 HKD, down 0.62%, with a clear bearish technical pattern [1] - The stock has formed a death cross as the 10-day moving average (MA10) at 134.59 HKD has fallen below the 30-day (MA30) at 136.09 HKD and the 60-day moving average (MA60) at 150.42 HKD [1] - The stock is oscillating between 122.6 HKD and 136.4 HKD, with a 5-day volatility of 13.3%, indicating significant market divergence [1] Group 2 - There are 19 sell signals, 2 neutral signals, and 2 buy signals, indicating a strong sell sentiment [2] - Key support levels are identified at 126.4 HKD and 125.5 HKD, with a second support at 118.2 HKD [2] - The average daily trading volume is 54.3 billion HKD, showing sufficient liquidity but heavy selling pressure remains [3] Group 3 - Recent bearish derivative products related to Meituan have surged over 30%, with notable gains in put options and bear certificates [5][6] - The performance of these products highlights the explosive potential of bearish derivatives in a declining market [6] - For investors anticipating a rebound, HSBC's call options provide a leverage of 9 times with a strike price of 143.3 HKD, suitable for technical rebounds [8] Group 4 - Bull certificates from Morgan Stanley offer a recovery price of 117 HKD with a leverage of 9.8 times, while another option has a lower recovery price of 115 HKD with a leverage of 7.9 times [10] - Bear certificates from UBS and Societe Generale provide leverage of 7.7 times and 7.5 times, respectively, with recovery prices above 143 HKD [10]