基本面转强提振下，尿素日内强势拉涨近3%，一举刷新2025年5月以来的新高。分析来看，尽管前一交 易日尿素冲击1800元／吨关口受阻，但受印度新一轮招标已经发布和国际尿素价格高企的利多提振，尿 素多头情绪高涨。与此同时，从国内供需来看，虽然最近一周国内尿素行业开工率升至高位，但企业库 存却环比减少，这支持了市场对于农业小麦返青用肥或提前的积极预期。不过，行业机构也提示，虽然 当前农业方面存在阶段补货需求，但农需拿货有一定灵活性，且尿素工业需求减弱态势明显，整体尿素 市场基本面变化有限，市场波动更多受情绪影响。 其他品种方面，农产品日内多数走高，其中一号黄大豆、苹果、鸡蛋和豆菜双粕等收盘均涨超1%。 BR橡胶跌近2% 棕榈油持续走弱 2月12日，BR橡胶主力合约以1.93%的跌幅领跌国内商品市场。成本端油价支撑有限，而库存持续累 积，盘面承压回落。春节假期临近，现货端逐步转淡，样本生产企业库存及样本贸易企业库存均有提 升。据隆众资讯数据显示，截至2026年2月11日，国内顺丁橡胶库存量在3.39万吨，环比增加2.35%。南 华期货表示，后期装置检修与控产计划有望缓解库存压力，需求端拖累现货端价格，未来仍有待内需 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market on February 11 saw more gains than losses, with lithium carbonate leading the rise by over 9% [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1676.64 points, up 0.79% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate main contract increased by 9.18%, recovering above 150,000 yuan/ton, supported by strong demand despite seasonal slowdowns [2] - Domestic production of lithium iron phosphate is expected to decrease by 5.48% month-on-month in February, but overall operating levels remain high due to stable terminal demand [2] - The market is experiencing a tight balance in supply and demand, with expectations of continued strong demand in the medium to long term [2] Group 3: Nickel and Tin - Nickel and tin prices also saw significant increases, with nickel rising by 4.02% and tin by 3.27% [3] - The reduction of nickel mining quotas in Indonesia has raised concerns about future supply tightening, contributing to the price surge [3] - However, seasonal demand for refined nickel is expected to weaken in the short term due to the upcoming Spring Festival [3] Group 4: Shipping and Glass Markets - The shipping market for the European route continued to show weakness, with the main contract down 1.42% due to oversupply and declining export demand as the Spring Festival approaches [4] - The glass main contract experienced fluctuations, closing up 0.74%, but the overall supply-demand imbalance remains a concern [5] - Analysts expect that the market will remain generally loose, with pressure on inventory levels post-holiday [5]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 天然橡胶和20号胶评论： 前期由于贵金属的大幅下挫，商品期货市场回调明显，市场情绪亦回落，近期市场有所修复，今日国内 商品期货市场大部分飘红，文华商品指数突破均线压制再度站上170整数关口。本周橡胶和20号胶已连 收三根阳线，今日RU05收涨1.62%；NR04收涨1.7%；天然橡胶和20号胶均走强，技术上的偏空格局已 转变。 橡胶供应端来看，wind数据显示，2025年天然橡胶生产国联合会（ANRPC）的橡胶产量11394千吨，较 2024年略增长，其中泰国12月产量出现较明显下滑，或是受前期洪水的影响，这也是2025年橡胶产量增 幅小于预期的主要原因之一。数据显示，2026年1月科特迪瓦天然橡胶出口量为16.3万吨，较去年同期 的16.6万吨下降1.8%，环比降5.8%，目前国内产区已停割，东南亚产区即将进入产量释放缓慢期，预计 2026年上半年产量释放缓慢，橡胶供应压力或有限。 库存方面：钢联数据显示，2月6日当周青岛干胶库存为60.67万吨，高于前一周的59.16万吨；社会库存 129.65万吨，高于前一周的128.08万吨，库存为增加 ...

截至3日下午收盘，中证商品期货价格指数收报1670.40点，较前一交易日下跌58.34点，跌幅3.37%；中证商品期货指数收报2303.43点，较前一交易日下跌 80.44点，跌幅3.37%。 新华财经北京2月3日电国内商品期货市场2月3日跌多涨少，其中钯主力合约涨超8%，多晶硅涨超6%，集运欧线涨超5%，碳酸锂涨超4%，铂涨超3%，沪 铜、国际铜涨超2%。下跌品种方面，沪银跌超16%，沪锡跌超6%，SC原油跌超4%，燃料油跌超3%，LU、烧碱、双胶纸跌超2%，乙二醇、甲醇、不锈 钢、沥青、对二甲苯、菜粕、豆二、短纤、沪镍、铝合金、纯碱、塑料、铁矿石、豆油、PTA、尿素、豆粕、瓶片等跌超1%。 市场情绪有所改善钯金强势大涨超8% 多晶硅反弹超6%。 连续大跌之后市场情绪有所改善，早盘国际贵金属价格走高带动商品市场人气回升，部分品种企稳反弹，铂钯期货更是在消息面刺激下大幅反弹。截至3日 下午收盘，钯主力合约以8.62%的涨幅领涨商品市场，铂主力合约也录得超3%的涨幅。国内金银走势略有分化，沪金止跌回升，终盘小幅上涨，沪银主力合 约仍录得16.71%的跌幅。 消息面上，据媒体报道，欧盟正在考虑禁止进口俄罗斯铂等金 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The overall sentiment in the commodity market has weakened due to macro - external factors, and the EG price has dropped back to the previous low - level range. The EG fundamentals remain weak, with significant inventory accumulation pressure from January to February, which may ease in March. [1][2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3767 yuan/ton (down 146 yuan/ton or 3.73% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China EG market was 3712 yuan/ton (down 112 yuan/ton or 2.93% from the previous trading day). The East China spot basis was - 98 yuan/ton (up 14 yuan/ton month - on - month). [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production gross profit of ethylene - based EG was - 51 US dollars/ton (down 4 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production gross profit of coal - based syngas - based EG was - 748 yuan/ton (down 26 yuan/ton month - on - month). The extrusion of the syngas - based load was not obvious, and the domestic ethylene glycol load was at a high level. [1][2] International Spread No relevant content provided. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - Since mid - January, the Spring Festival maintenance plans have been gradually implemented. The weaving load and polyester load have declined rapidly, and the support from rigid demand has weakened. [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 85.8 tons (up 6.3 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 64.5 tons (up 2.8 tons month - on - month). The total planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week are 12.3 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports are 2.3 tons. Overall, it is neutral, and the inventory at the main ports is expected to remain stable. There are plans for large Saudi contract vessels to enter the warehouse in early February, and the near - term arrivals are still relatively high, but the pressure will ease in mid - to late February. [1][2] Strategy - Unilateral: In the short term, affected by the macro - external environment, the sentiment in the commodity market has weakened, and the EG price has dropped back to the previous low - level range. Observe the market dynamics. - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None [3]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 天然橡胶和20号胶评论： 近期商品期货市场贵金属、有色金属板块涨幅居前，黄金、白银持续创出新高，有色金属紧随其后，市 场情绪较高。1月中旬橡胶盘面短暂调整，下旬再次走强，今日RU 05合约突破前期高点，最高至 16790，全天盘面偏强，日线收涨2.61%；20号胶距紧随其后，今日NR03最大涨幅超3%，日线收涨 2.55%；天然橡胶和20号胶均突破前期高点，技术上的偏空格局已转变。 橡胶供应端来看，wind数据显示，2025年前11个月天然橡胶生产国联合会（ANRPC）的橡胶产量10263 千吨，较2024年同期增长1.1%，目前12月份数据仍未出，我们预计2025年橡胶产量大概率维持小幅增 长态势。从国别来看，泰国、印尼、越南产量维持稳中有增态势，马来西亚、菲律宾产量有波动，但由 于占比较小，对整体产量影响有限。需要注意近年科特迪瓦产量稳步增加，数据显示2025年科特迪瓦天 胶出口量同比增加13.4%。2025年橡胶产量或小幅增长。目前国内产区已停割，东南亚产区即将进入产 量释放缓慢期，预计2026年上半年产量释放缓慢，橡胶供应压力将缓解。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment Rating: ★★ [6] Report's Core View - Last week, the Iron Ore 2605 contract rose 3.17%. In the commodity futures market, most major commodity futures prices increased, and the financial market sentiment was relatively positive. With a lack of fundamental drivers, the macro - level provided the main support for the market. Iron ore is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillatory trend in the near future [4][34] - For single - sided trading, it is advisable to go long on dips and pay attention to the support at 800 yuan/ton. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [5][6][35][36] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Disk Analysis - This section includes analysis of futures prices, spot prices (such as the PB powder 61.5% spot price at Tianjin Port), and futures position net - position analysis [7][8][12] 2. Important Market Information - In 2025, the cumulative increase in the total social financing scale was 35.6 trillion yuan, 3.34 trillion yuan more than the previous year. At the end of December 2025, the broad - money (M2) balance was 340.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%; the RMB loan balance was 271.91 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4% [15] - The World Bank raised its 2026 global economic growth forecast to 2.6%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous forecast. The US GDP growth rate is expected to reach 2.2% in 2026, while the economic growth rates of the Eurozone and Japan are expected to slow down to 0.9% and 0.8% respectively [15] 3. Supply - Side Situation - As of December 2025, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 11,965 million tons, an increase of 911 million tons from the previous month; the import average price was 101.16 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.33 US dollars/ton from the previous month [20] - As of December 2025, Australia's iron ore shipment volume was 7,139.3 million tons, an increase of 954.4 million tons from the previous month; Brazil's iron ore shipment volume was 2,763.5 million tons, a decrease of 332.8 million tons from the first half of the month [24] 4. Demand - Side Situation - This section involves data on the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills, and the Shanghai terminal wire rod and screw steel procurement volume [25][28][30] 5. Fundamental Analysis - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country was 16,555.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 279.84 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.1989 million tons, a decrease of 338,000 tons; the number of ships at the port was 117, an increase of 1 [33] - The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.84%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.47% and a year - on - year increase of 1.66%; the blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.48%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.56% and a year - on - year increase of 1.20%; the steel - mill profitability rate was 39.83%, a month - on - month increase of 2.17% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.39%; the daily average molten iron output was 2.2801 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 149,000 tons [33] - In early January, key steel enterprises produced 19.97 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.997 million tons, a daily output increase of 21.6% month - on - month. It is estimated that the national daily output of crude steel was 2.48 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.8%; the daily output of pig iron was 2.15 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.8%; and the daily output of steel products was 3.87 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2% [33] 6. Future Outlook - Iron ore is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillatory trend in the near future [34] 7. Operation Strategy - For single - sided trading, go long on dips and pay attention to the support at around 800 yuan/ton. For arbitrage and options, wait and see [5][6][35][36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment for commodities is expected to remain bullish, but the main focus will be on precious metals and non-ferrous metals. Other sectors will be more influenced by the spill - over of market sentiment [18]. - In the short - term, the prices of coking coal and coke are expected to show a moderately strong oscillating trend. However, attention should be paid to the short - term impact of market sentiment and the current high volatility risk [18]. - The supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is marginally loosening, but considering the pre - holiday restocking, the relationship between coking coal, coke, and downstream hot metal remains relatively balanced. Steel enterprises have low expectations for the future market and weak restocking willingness [18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: Last week, coking coal futures prices rose at the beginning of the week, hit the upper pressure level, and then oscillated downward, with a weekly decline of 22 yuan/ton or - 1.84%. Coking coal futures are in a daily - level rebound cycle. Coking coke futures prices also showed a slight oscillating downward trend last week, with a weekly decline of 30.5 yuan/ton or - 1.74%. Coking coke prices are approaching the long - term downward trend line since October 2021 [11][16]. - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Coking coal spot prices generally increased, and most varieties had positive basis. Coking coke spot prices remained stable, and the basis showed a discount situation [17]. - **Variety Positions**: The positions of the main coking coal contract are at a high level in the same period of the past six years, and the non - main contracts in March and April also have abnormally high positions. Attention should be paid to the pressure of warehouse receipts after price increases [17]. - **Domestic Production**: The daily average production of clean coal from 523 sample mines increased by 3.42 tons week - on - week, but the cumulative production decreased by about 810,000 tons or - 3.29% year - on - year [17]. - **Overseas Imports**: The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port has decreased to 169,000 tons/day but is still at a high level. The import profit of Australian Peak View hard coking coal is - 118 yuan/ton, and the import window is still closed [17]. - **Demand**: The daily average coke production of 247 steel enterprises and independent coking plants decreased by 0.28 tons. The daily average hot metal production of steel enterprises decreased by 1.49 tons, and the steel mill profit margin increased by 2.17%. The apparent consumption of five major steel products increased, and the inventory decreased slightly but was still higher than the same period last year [17]. - **Supply - Demand Structure**: The daily average supply of coking coal increased, while the demand decreased, and the supply - demand structure was marginally loosened. The daily average demand for coking coke was slightly lower than the production, and the supply - demand structure also showed marginal looseness [18]. - **Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory increased by 421,000 tons, and the total coking coke inventory increased by 43,100 tons. The inventory of coking coal and coke is being transferred from upstream to downstream [18]. 3.2 Futures - Spot Market - **Coking Coal Spot Prices**: As of January 16, 2026, the prices of skeleton coking coal such as low - sulfur, medium - sulfur, and high - sulfur main coking coal increased significantly, while the prices of 1/3 coking coal, lean coal, and gas coal increased slightly. The prices of different coking coal varieties in different regions also showed varying degrees of increase [22][24][27]. - **Coking Coke Spot Prices**: As of January 16, 2026, the prices of coking coke in Rizhao Port and Lvliang remained stable [33]. - **Coking Coal Basis**: As of January 16, 2026, Shanxi low - sulfur main coking coal and Jinquan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal had positive basis, and the basis increased compared with the previous period [40]. - **Coking Coal Calendar Spread**: As of January 16, 2026, the 5 - 9 spread of coking coal was - 82 yuan/ton, and coking coal maintained a Contango structure [43]. - **Coking Coke Basis**: As of January 16, 2026, Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke and Lvliang quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke had negative basis, and the basis increased compared with the previous period [46]. - **Coking Coke Calendar Spread**: As of January 16, 2026, the 5 - 9 spread of coking coke was - 79.5 yuan/ton, and coking coke maintained a Contango structure [49]. 3.3 Positions and Variety Ratios - **Variety Positions**: As of January 16, 2026, the total unilateral positions of coking coal were 617,800 lots, a decrease of 23,600 lots week - on - week, and the positions were still at a relatively high historical level. The unilateral positions of coking coke were 40,300 lots, an increase of 100 lots week - on - week [58]. - **Variety Ratios**: This week, coking coal performed slightly weaker than iron ore and hot - rolled coils, and the ratio of coking coal to iron ore is still at a low historical level. Iron ore and hot - rolled coils were also slightly stronger than coking coke, and the ratio of coking coke to iron ore is also at a low historical level [65][68]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Domestic Coking Coal Production**: As of January 16, 2026, the daily average production of clean coal from 523 sample mines was 768,500 tons, an increase of 34,200 tons week - on - week, and the production continued to recover. The daily average production of clean coal from 314 sample coal washing plants was 273,500 tons, an increase of 12,300 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative production increased year - on - year [73][75]. - **Imported Coking Coal**: As of January 10, 2026, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased to 169,000 tons/day but was still at a high level. In 2025, China's cumulative imports of Mongolian coking coal increased year - on - year. The import profit of Australian coking coal was negative, and the import window was closed. In 2025, China's cumulative imports of Australian coking coal decreased year - on - year. The imports of Russian and Canadian coking coal increased in 2025 compared with the previous year, while the imports of US coking coal decreased significantly [78][81][84]. - **Coking Coke Production**: As of January 16, 2026, the daily average coke production of 247 steel enterprises and independent coking plants decreased, and the coking profit of independent coking plants was - 65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton week - on - week [90]. - **Downstream Steel Industry**: As of January 16, 2026, the daily average hot metal production of 247 steel enterprises decreased, and the steel mill profit margin increased. The estimated profit of rebar and hot - rolled coils on the futures market improved. The apparent consumption of five major steel products increased, and the inventory decreased slightly but was still higher than the same period last year [96][102][106]. - **Supply - Demand Structure**: The daily average supply of coking coal increased, while the demand decreased, and the supply - demand structure was marginally loosened. The daily average demand for coking coke was slightly lower than the production, and the supply - demand structure also showed marginal looseness [108]. 3.5 Inventory - **Inventory Overview**: As of January 16, 2026, the total coking coal inventory increased by 421,000 tons, and the total coking coke inventory increased by 43,100 tons. The inventory transfer from upstream to downstream continued [112]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The inventory of sample mines decreased, while the inventories of independent coking plants and steel mills increased, and the port inventory decreased slightly [112]. - **Coking Coke Inventory**: The inventory of independent coking plants decreased, while the inventories of steel mills and ports increased [112].

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market saw most contracts rise during the night session, with energy products leading the gains, particularly fuel which increased by 3.13% [1] - Chemical products mostly experienced increases, with polypropylene rising by 1.23% [1] - Non-metallic building materials also saw a majority increase, with PVC up by 0.70% [1] Group 2 - Agricultural products generally rose, with corn increasing by 0.26% [1] - The black series of commodities mostly rose, with rebar increasing by 0.19% [1] - Oilseeds and oils faced declines, with palm oil dropping by 1.28% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The commodity futures market is experiencing mixed trends, with rubber prices showing minor declines while maintaining a stable oscillation pattern. The supply side pressure has eased due to adverse weather conditions in Thailand, impacting production levels [3][9]. Supply Side - The rubber output in Thailand has been affected by floods in the southern region, leading to a decrease in production compared to previous years. As per QinRex data, Thailand's natural rubber exports for the first 11 months of 2025 totaled 2.419 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7%. However, exports to China during the same period increased by 14%, totaling 945,000 tons [3][9]. - The production in Southeast Asia's main rubber-producing regions is expected to remain stable or slightly increase in the fourth quarter, suggesting that localized production declines will have a limited impact on overall annual output [3][9]. Inventory - According to Steel Union data, the inventory of dry rubber in Qingdao was 524,800 tons for the week ending December 26, up from 515,200 tons the previous week. The social inventory data has not been updated, but it is anticipated that the overall inventory remains in an accumulation phase, indicating greater inventory pressure than in previous periods [10]. Demand Side - The operating rates for downstream steel tires were reported at 61.95% for full steel tires and 72.05% for semi-steel tires for the week ending December 25. The full steel tire operating rate has decreased compared to the previous week, while the semi-steel tire rate has seen a slight increase. Both rates are below those of the same period last year, indicating stable demand without significant changes [10]. Market Outlook - The recent market performance is characterized by a strong tendency, driven by easing supply-side pressures and macroeconomic support from crude oil prices. However, there is significant inventory pressure as the market enters an accumulation phase, compounded by heightened risk aversion as the holiday season approaches. It is recommended to reduce positions in rubber and 20 rubber before the holiday [4][10].