热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 天然橡胶和20号胶评论： 今日商品期货市场涨跌互现，前期强势的贵金属、有色及新能源板块跌幅较大，市场情绪不及前期。橡 胶回落幅度较小，维持震荡格局，RU05日线收跌0.44%；NR02日线收跌0.43%；技术上，天然橡胶和20 号胶在60日均线上方。 橡胶供应端来看，由于11月泰国南部地区洪水导致橡胶产出不及往年同期，橡胶供应端压力较前期有所 缓解；QinRex数据显示，2025年前11个月，泰国出口天然橡胶合计为241.9万吨，同比降7%；1-11月， 出口到中国天然橡胶合计为94.5万吨，同比增14%。东南亚主产区四季度产量大概率维持稳中有增，阶 段性、区域性的产出降低对全年的产出影响或有限。 库存方面：钢联数据显示，12月26日当周青岛干胶库存为52.48万吨，高于前一周的51.52万吨；社会库 存数据未更新，预计社会库存仍为累库态势，库存压力大于前期。 需求端来看，下游开工率方面，12月25日当周全钢胎开工率61.95%，半钢胎开工率为72.05%，全钢胎 开工率均较前一周回落，半钢胎开工率较前一周略回升，全钢胎、半钢胎的开工率均不及去 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes multiple commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It provides market performance, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each sector, suggesting various actions such as buying, selling, or holding based on the specific market conditions [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Precious Metals - **Gold**: Overseas precious metals rose on Friday, with silver up over 10%. The RMB strengthened, and the CME will raise margins. Gold ETFs saw small inflows. Suggest going long on gold and staying on the sidelines for silver due to high volatility [1]. - **Silver**: Speculative sentiment is strong, with short - term upside potential but increased future volatility. It's recommended to wait and see [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The price continued to rise, driven by precious metals and short - covering. Supply of copper ore remains tight, while downstream demand is weak. It's advisable to wait and see due to high market sentiment [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with high - load production on the supply side and a slight decline in demand. The positive macro - atmosphere and copper price breakthrough boost sentiment [2]. - **Alumina**: It has staged a rebound but is constrained by over - supply. The short - term trend may be weak rebounds with high volatility [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The market is expected to oscillate between 8400 - 9200 yuan/ton. With balanced supply and demand and potential production cut rumors, it's better to wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The current price is likely to rise due to the anticipation of higher prices in 2026, despite the Q1 demand slump [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price may rise, but short - term chasing risks are high. It's recommended to wait for price corrections to enter the market [3]. - **Tin**: The price continued to rise. Supply recovery is slow, and demand is weak. It's advisable to wait and see due to high market sentiment [3][4]. Black Industry - **Rebar Steel**: The market is expected to oscillate. Supply and demand are weak, and the futures are undervalued. It's recommended to wait and see and consider shorting [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The market will likely oscillate. Supply and demand are weak, and the valuation is moderately high. It's better to wait and see [5]. - **Coking Coal**: The market is expected to oscillate. Supply and demand are weak, and the futures are overvalued. It's recommended to wait and see and consider shorting [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean market is likely to be volatile, depending on South American production. The domestic market is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term [6]. - **Corn**: The futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate. Pay attention to weather and policy changes [6][7]. - **Oils and Fats**: The market is expected to be volatile, with a focus on future production and bio - diesel policies [7]. - **Sugar**: The futures market suggests shorting, and selling call options is also recommended [7]. - **Cotton**: It's recommended to buy at low prices, with a price reference range of 14300 - 14800 yuan/ton [7]. - **Eggs**: The futures price is expected to oscillate within a range [7]. - **Hogs**: The futures price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with attention to recent slaughter volume [7]. - **Apples**: It's recommended to wait and see and pay attention to post - holiday sales [8]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: In the short - term, the market may be weak and volatile. In the long - term, it's advisable to go long on far - month contracts [8]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand is weak, and the valuation is low. An inverse spread strategy is recommended [8]. - **PTA**: PX is expected to be strong in the medium - term, and there are opportunities to go long on PTA processing margins in the 05 contract [8]. - **Rubber**: It's recommended to gradually close long positions around 16000 yuan/ton due to weak upward momentum [9]. - **Glass**: The supply - demand is downward, and the valuation is low. An inverse spread strategy is recommended [9]. - **PP**: In the short - term, the market may be weak and volatile. In the long - term, it's advisable to go long on far - month contracts [9]. - **MEG**: With a continuous inventory build - up, it's recommended to short at high prices [9]. - **Crude Oil**: The supply is likely to exceed demand at the end of the year and in Q1. It's recommended to short at high prices, considering geopolitical events [9][10]. - **EB**: In the short - term, the market may oscillate. In the second quarter, it's advisable to go long on styrene or use the inverse spread strategy for pure benzene [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is increasing while demand is weak, and the valuation is low. An inverse spread strategy is recommended [10].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic commodity futures market in China experienced a mixed performance on December 25, with significant gains in polysilicon and platinum contracts, while palladium saw a sharp decline. The overall market sentiment remains influenced by supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic factors [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Polysilicon prices surged by 4.8% driven by downstream price increases, with major silicon wafer companies raising their prices by an average of 12% [3]. - The Shanghai silver, ethylene glycol, and international copper contracts all rose by over 2%, while rubber, styrene, and several other commodities saw gains exceeding 1% [1]. - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1576.53 points, up 0.68% from the previous trading day, while the Commodity Index rose to 2175.42 points, also reflecting a 0.68% increase [1]. Group 2: Polysilicon Insights - The recent price rebound in polysilicon is attributed to a healthy inventory level in the downstream silicon wafer segment, indicating a tight supply situation [3]. - Despite the positive sentiment, analysts caution that the sustainability of price increases will depend on whether downstream sectors can absorb the higher costs [3]. Group 3: Platinum and Palladium Dynamics - Platinum futures exhibited high volatility, with intraday fluctuations exceeding 15%, ultimately closing with a gain of 4.51% [4]. - The palladium market faced significant pressure, with prices dropping over 7% due to profit-taking and external market influences, reflecting a weaker fundamental outlook compared to platinum [6]. - Analysts noted that palladium's demand is heavily concentrated in automotive applications, which may lead to structural declines in demand as automotive catalyst needs decrease [6]. Group 4: Other Metals - The depreciation of the RMB against the USD provided additional support for international copper prices, which rose by over 2% despite Shanghai copper only gaining 1% [5]. - Nickel and tin contracts both fell by over 1%, influenced by seasonal demand weakness and high inventory levels, particularly in the stainless steel sector [7].

碳酸锂收盘站上12万元／吨关口镍价刷新逾两个月新高 金属板块12月23日延续强势，除金银铂钯继续飙升以外，碳酸锂也进一步刷新了本轮反弹的高点，在23日尾盘成功收复12万元／吨关口，逼近2024年3月4日 的高位。基本面供需紧平衡格局延续，推动锂价持续走高。储能需求的持续强劲，抵消了动力需求季节性回落对碳酸锂基本面的影响，使得国内碳酸锂库存 持续去化，进而也强化了资金对碳酸锂的看多情绪。不过，机构也提示，需留意后期碳酸锂供需面的边际变化。一方面，在供应端，虽然11月国内碳酸锂进 口量环比减少，但机构判断随着智利发运恢复至正常水平，12月碳酸锂进口量或环比增加。同时，进口锂矿陆续到港，锂矿库存存在继续累积的可能。此 外，在需求端，下游正极材料厂对当前锂价态度趋于谨慎。整体看，碳酸锂市场暂时仍维持供应高弹性压制价格上行空间，储能需求表现较强支撑锂价下跌 空间的局面，短期在资金作用下保持冲高动能，但整体或高位震荡运行。盘面上看，尽管碳酸锂主力合约23日午盘市场震荡攀高，但持仓整体呈现减仓态 势，终盘主力2605合约净减仓超300手，近月2601合约则减仓近5200手。 沪镍在印尼收紧镍矿供应政策的影响下，近五个交易日 ...

新华财经北京12月10日电（吴郑思、张瑶） 国内商品期货市场周三（12月10日）整体分化震荡，但部分金属的强劲表现仍推动商品指数震荡走升。截至下 午收盘时，综合衡量市场价格走势的中证商品期货指数收报1505.85点，较前一交易日上涨7.81点，涨幅0.52%；中证商品期货指数收报2082.00点，较前一交 易日上涨10.80点，涨幅0.52%。 分品种来看，金价高位持稳的背景下白银市场供应收紧的题材持续发酵，内外盘银价飙升并连续刷新历史新高。10日单日沪银主力合约净流入资金超38亿 元。同受基本面偏强支撑，碳酸锂、锡双双涨超2%。相比之下，氧化铝过剩压力不减，前一日盘中刷新历史低点之后，10日再跌超3%，续创历史新低。玻 璃、纯碱也在终端需求疲弱的拖累下，先后逼近或刷新历史新低。 沪银飙升超5%再创历史新高集运欧线刷新逾三周高点 氧化铝续创历史新低玻璃纯碱 供应收紧推动银锡价格拉涨的同时，过剩压力不减，则令氧化铝近期跌势加速。在前一交易日大跌超2%并在盘中刷新上市以来新低之后，10日氧化铝再跌 3.17%，不仅领跌当天商品市场，更进一步刷新了历史新低。供应过剩压力不减且有加大的趋势，令氧化铝持续疲弱。行业机构 ...

基本面疲软的利空冲击下，焦煤焦炭12月8日大幅下挫。截至收盘时，焦煤下跌6.14%，焦炭收跌5.79%，分居当日跌幅排行前两位。近期双焦供强需弱的基 本面格局明显：一方面，从需求端看，Mysteel的最新数据显示，上周国内247家钢厂日均铁水产量环比续降2.38万吨至232.3万吨，刷新8个月来新低，这对 双焦需求构成明显利空。另一方面，在供应端，蒙煤通关持续偏高，监管区库存累积至接近300万吨的水平，焦煤供应压力趋增。此外，焦煤主力合约换月 至2605合约后，年末煤矿因安全生产而受限的影响弱化，弱势特征更加明显，盘中期价触及该合约自今年7月下旬以来的新低。不过，分析机构也提示，目 前焦煤2605合约估值偏低，需警惕宏观情绪变化带来的预期差。 新华财经北京12月8日电（吴郑思、张瑶） 国内商品期货市场周一（12月8日）整体温和波动，品种分化明显，活跃商品收盘跌多涨少。截至收盘时，中证 商品期货价格指数收报1510.25点，较前一交易日上涨0.78点，涨幅0.05%；中证商品期货指数收报2088.09点，较前一交易日上涨1.09点，涨幅0.05%。 能源金属8日多数震荡走弱，尤其是多晶硅在交易所公告新增注册品牌 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - On November 19, the domestic commodity futures market showed overall strong fluctuations, with significant differentiation among sectors. Energy metals surged, while oilseeds, soda ash, and glass faced downward pressure [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1481.72 points, up 6.51 points or 0.44% from the previous trading day. The China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 2048.64 points, up 9.00 points or 0.44% [1] Group 2: Energy Metals Performance - Energy metals, including lithium carbonate, polysilicon, and industrial silicon, led the market with gains exceeding 4%. Lithium carbonate briefly surpassed the 100,000 yuan/ton mark during trading [2][3] - The strong performance of lithium carbonate is supported by robust fundamentals, with continuous price increases attributed to inventory depletion and strong demand. However, there are potential risks associated with price fluctuations due to the ongoing negotiations regarding the resumption of production at Ningde [2][3] Group 3: Chemical Products Performance - In contrast to the energy metals, the chemical products sector has been under pressure. Soda ash prices fell over 3%, reaching a four-month low due to oversupply and weak demand [4] - The glass market is also experiencing weakness, with prices declining amid oversupply and seasonal demand reduction. This has led to lower average profitability for production lines, increasing the likelihood of production cuts [4][5] Group 4: Aluminum and Other Commodities - Aluminum oxide prices have also declined, dropping nearly 2% and hitting a six-month low. The high operating rate of over 81% in domestic aluminum oxide production limits demand growth, contributing to inventory accumulation [5] - Other commodities, including the European shipping index, also faced declines, with multiple active products recording losses exceeding 1% [5]

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market stabilized on November 6, with most varieties rebounding. The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1469.78 points, up 12.38 points or 0.85% from the previous trading day [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 2027.93 points, also up 17.07 points or 0.85% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Chemical Sector - The chemical sector showed significant rebound signs, with paraxylene (PX) leading the market with a 3.05% increase, reaching a two-month high. Improved supply-demand expectations were the main drivers for PX's price increase [2] - The demand for PX is supported by a recovery in new orders from weaving enterprises and a reduction in inventory levels for weaving and polyester products [2] Group 3: Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke futures rose, with coking coal and coke main contracts recording increases of 2.38% and 2.07%, respectively. The tightening supply is a major bullish factor for the coking market [3] - As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines was 83.8%, down 1 percentage point week-on-week, indicating a reduction in supply [3] Group 4: Shipping Index - The shipping index for Europe experienced a significant decline of nearly 4%, with a drop of 3.91% at the close. This was attributed to market adjustments following previous price increases and high capacity levels [4] - The main contract for the shipping index saw a reduction of 5660 contracts, with a net outflow of over 200 million yuan, indicating a retreat of bullish sentiment [4] Group 5: Asphalt and Other Chemical Products - The asphalt market continued to show weakness, hitting a new low not seen since September of the previous year, with a 2.05% decline. The drop was influenced by falling oil prices and seasonal demand reductions [5] - Other chemical products like polyethylene continued to show weakness, although the decline in prices moderated towards the end of the trading day [5]

Core Viewpoint - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is warming, with most products closing higher on October 16, driven by policy expectations and market dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Commodity Performance - Polysilicon continues to rise strongly by 3.48%, leading the commodity market, supported by positive policy expectations [1][3]. - Other commodities such as coking coal, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and butadiene rubber also saw gains of over 2% to 3% [1][3]. - The China Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1479.17 points, up 0.67%, while the China Commodity Futures Index closed at 2041.35 points, up 0.66% [1]. Group 2: Polysilicon Market Dynamics - Despite being in a supply surplus situation, the polysilicon market is buoyed by rumors of upcoming regulatory measures to strengthen photovoltaic capacity control, leading to a bullish sentiment [3]. - The market has experienced a four-day consecutive rise, although recent reports suggest that rumors about a polysilicon storage platform may be unfounded, potentially impacting market sentiment [3]. Group 3: LPG Market Insights - LPG has shown signs of stabilization, with a daily increase of 3.07% on October 16, supported by expectations of rising international CP prices and decreasing domestic inventories [4]. - The inventory of liquefied gas at Chinese ports decreased by 8.95 million tons to 3.1804 million tons, indicating a smooth destocking process [4]. Group 4: Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke prices rose, with coking coal gaining over 3% and coke over 2%, supported by high iron water production and good spot transaction performance [4]. - However, concerns about steel mill profitability and demand for steel may limit upward momentum in coking coal prices [4]. Group 5: Shipping and Pork Market Trends - The shipping index for Europe fell by 3.64%, leading the market decline, as profit-taking emerged after three days of gains [5]. - The pork market remains under pressure from oversupply, with the new main contract dropping 3.21% and breaking below the 12,000 yuan/ton mark [6]. - Despite some signs of stabilization in pork prices, the overall market sentiment remains weak due to increasing supply and slow capacity reduction [6]. Group 6: Other Commodities - Apple futures saw a decline of nearly 2%, reaching a new low for the month [7].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On Tuesday, most domestic commodities declined, with industrial products and agricultural products mostly weakening [1]. 3. Summary by Category Black Series - Most black series commodities fell. The market sentiment was weak, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping from a high. The actual situation of the black series remained weak, and the rebar futures reached a more than three - month low. Last week, the inventory of the five major steel products increased by 8.68% week - on - week to 1.60072 billion tons, with the increase far higher than 3.65% of the same period last year and a year - on - year increase of 19.5%. In the future, the property transactions during the National Day holiday were halved year - on - year, the national replenishment in many places was suspended, the sales of automobiles and home appliances declined, and the accumulated inventory needed time to digest. Exports also faced new challenges, so the fundamental contradictions were prominent, and the upward pressure on prices continued [1]. Basic Metals - Most basic metals declined. In the copper market, there was concern about the Sino - US tariff game. The market had different views on copper, mainly focusing on capital pull and demand pressure in traditional fields. The domestic copper market might continue the feature of "both supply and demand being weak". For aluminum, non - ferrous metals rose and then fell. The spot in East China was at par, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods had a neutral accumulation. There were signs of inventory reduction in major regions on Tuesday. The apparent consumption of aluminum in the off - season was basically the same year - on - year, and the demand was resilient but lacked a high point. In the short term, Shanghai aluminum would fluctuate, and the upside space should be carefully viewed [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Most energy and chemical products weakened. As the macro - sentiment eased and investors' risk appetite gradually recovered, international crude oil prices rebounded. However, the willingness of domestic funds to chase the rise was relatively cautious, and the main contract of SC crude oil continued to decline. In the future, the market entered the TACO trading mode, and oil prices might fluctuate and repair in the short term. But the unpredictable style of Trump made the macro - level highly uncertain, and the trading rhythm was difficult to grasp. In the medium and long term, as geopolitical risks eased, the price center might move down [1]. Oilseeds and Oils - Most oilseeds and oils declined. The weakening of external - market oils and the decline of crude oil led to a weak overall sentiment in the oil market. According to the National Grain and Oil Information Center, the commercial inventory of the three major domestic oils was 2.41 million tons, up 340,000 tons year - on - year, at a high level in recent years. The fundamentals of oils lacked positive support for the time being, and they were expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the trend of crude oil prices. In the long term, palm oil was about to enter the seasonal production - reduction period, and the B50 biodiesel plan in Indonesia would have an impact, so oils still had room to rise. The decline of double - meal (rapeseed meal and soybean meal) widened, and rapeseed meal reached a three - month low. The inventory of imported soybeans and soybean meal in China was at a high level, and the weak fundamentals restricted the upward space of prices. In the short term, double - meal might continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the arrival of imported soybeans and rapeseeds [1]. Others - Shipping futures had a large increase, with the Container Freight Index (European Line) rising 7.36%. All precious metals rose, with Shanghai gold rising 2.70%. Most new - energy materials rose, with polysilicon rising 2.55% [1].