| | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITC国贸期货 | | --- | --- | | 国贸商品指数 E C | 贸商品指数日报 | | | 国贸期货研究院 从业资格号: F3014717 | | | 郑建著 2025/08/13 Z0013223 宏观金融中心 投资咨询号: | | | 周二（8月12日），国内商品期市收盘多数上涨,黑色系普遍上涨,焦煤上涨6.97%,铁矿石上涨 | | | 2.36%;新能源材料多数上涨,碳酸锂上涨2.00%;基本金属多数上涨,氧化铝上涨4.16%;油脂油料 多数上涨,棕榈油上涨3.13%;化工品多数上涨,橡胶上涨0.89%;能源品涨跌互现,低硫燃料油上涨 | | | 0.95%,原油上涨0.55%;贵金属普遍下跌,沪银下跌0.62%,沪金下跌1.12%;航运期货表现颁软,集 | | | 运指数(欧线)下跌1.48%。 | | | 热评:周二国内商品多数上涨,其中,工业品多数上涨、农产品涨跌互现。具体来看: | | | 1) 黑色系多数上涨。上周末唐山限产消息落地,叠加双焦期价延续上行趋势,螺纹热卷期价反弹1% | | | 左右,主力成交量环比收缩。上周五 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is to wait and see, as the log market is expected to fluctuate significantly this week, influenced by the commodity futures market [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The log futures market has seen significant price increases due to strong commodity sentiment, decreased shipping volume, rising foreign market quotes, and expectations of a peak season in September. However, the current fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to register warehouse receipts for delivery to profit. Considering various factors such as supply, demand, inventory, trade profit, and valuation, the overall market situation is complex, and waiting and seeing is the recommended strategy [3][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In June 2025, China's total imports of softwood logs were approximately 2.1768 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% and a year - on - year increase of 15.73%. From January to June 2025, the total imports were about 12.3364 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.97% [3]. - **Demand**: From July 14th to July 20th, the average daily outbound volume of softwood logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 62,400 cubic meters, a 6.1% increase from the previous week. Among them, the average daily outbound volume at Shandong ports was 33,600 cubic meters, a 4.8% decrease from the previous week, and at Jiangsu ports was 23,200 cubic meters, a 25.4% increase from the previous week [3]. - **Inventory**: As of July 18th, the total domestic softwood log inventory was 3.29 million cubic meters, an increase of 70,000 cubic meters from the previous week. The inventory at Shandong ports was 1.932 million cubic meters, a 2% increase from the previous week, and at Jiangsu ports was 1.1 million cubic meters, basically unchanged from the previous week [3]. - **Trade Profit**: After the increase in foreign market quotes, the profit inversion situation of traders has intensified. As of July 25, 2025, the trader's profit was - 54 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week [3]. - **Valuation**: The spot price of 5.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine is 760 yuan/m³, equivalent to 790 yuan/m³ on the futures market, with the futures price at a premium [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, no specific strategy is provided. For arbitrage, register warehouse receipts for delivery. Attention should be paid to the domestic demand situation [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures**: Log futures have risen significantly due to strong commodity sentiment, decreased shipping volume, rising foreign market quotes, and expectations of a peak season in September. However, the fundamentals are currently weak, and it is recommended to register warehouse receipts for delivery to profit [7]. - **Spot**: As of July 25, 2025, in Shandong, the prices of 3.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A radiata pine were 720/740/860 yuan/m³, and 5.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A were 730/770/930 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A radiata pine were 710/760/820 yuan/m³, and 5.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A were 720/770/860 yuan/m³ [17]. 3.3 Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In June 2025, China's total imports of softwood logs were about 2.1768 million cubic meters. From January to June 2025, the total imports were about 12.3364 million cubic meters. In June 2025, imports from New Zealand were about 1.6735 million cubic meters, and from January to June 2025, about 9.2485 million cubic meters. In June 2025, imports of radiata pine were about 1.6068 million cubic meters, and from January to June 2025, about 9.0189 million cubic meters [21]. - **Shipping Volume**: As of July 20th, there were 29 ships departing from New Zealand in July, with 26 going to the Chinese mainland. It is expected that 16 ships will arrive in July and 13 in August, with an expected arrival volume of 1.63 million cubic meters in July [24]. - **Trade Profit**: With the increase in foreign market quotes, the profit inversion situation of traders has intensified. As of July 2025, the import profit of radiata pine was about - 53 yuan/m³ [31]. - **Inventory**: As of July 18th, the total domestic softwood log inventory was 3.29 million cubic meters. Among them, radiata pine inventory was 2.64 million cubic meters, North American timber inventory was 230,000 cubic meters, and spruce and fir inventory was 210,000 cubic meters. In Shandong ports, the inventory was 1.932 million cubic meters, and in Jiangsu ports, 1.1 million cubic meters [34]. - **Outbound Volume**: From July 14th to July 20th, the average daily outbound volume of softwood logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 62,400 cubic meters. The average daily outbound volume at Shandong ports was 33,600 cubic meters, and at Jiangsu ports was 23,200 cubic meters [37]. - **Downstream**: As of July 25, 2025, the wood square prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were 1270 yuan/m³ and 1260 yuan/m³ respectively, unchanged from the previous week. The processing profit in Shandong was 31 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week, and in Jiangsu was - 9.2 yuan/m³, a decrease of 15 yuan/m³ from the previous week [41].

Core Viewpoint - The commodity market in the first half of 2025 exhibited a narrow fluctuation trend, with the China Securities Commodity Index showing a slight annual increase of 0.20% and a volatility of 10.27% [1] Market Overview - The commodity market experienced increased volatility due to frequent macro events, with weak overall demand impacting industrial products more significantly than agricultural products [2] - Three major macro "black swan" events occurred in the first half of 2025, including U.S. sanctions on Russian oil, a global tariff storm, and conflicts in the Middle East, all contributing to market fluctuations [2] Performance Characteristics - There was a clear divergence between agricultural and industrial products, with agricultural prices being more stable and influenced by supply-side changes, while industrial prices were more sensitive to demand fluctuations [3] - Different types of events caused further differentiation within the commodity market, with industrial products reacting strongly to demand-side shocks while agricultural products remained relatively stable [3] Index Returns Attribution 1. **Term Structure Contribution** - The term structure yield for the first half of 2025 was 1.07%, showing a slight increase from 2024, indicating a potential improvement in global economic growth [6] 2. **Sector Contribution** - Agricultural products experienced slight price increases with lower volatility, while industrial products faced larger price declines and fluctuations, reflecting insufficient global demand [7] 3. **Product Contribution** - Precious metals and agricultural products contributed positively to returns, while black metals and energy chemicals generally contributed negatively [8] Macro Indicators 1. **Macro Level** - The China Securities Commodity Index serves as an important reference for macroeconomic conditions, showing a strong correlation with PPI, which may lead by about two months [9] 2. **Micro Level** - Sub-sector indices show a high correlation with the profit totals of corresponding industries, providing timely insights for business decision-making [12] Comparative Analysis - The China Securities Commodity Index demonstrates a clear advantage in terms of risk and return compared to major overseas commodity indices, making it an attractive option for domestic and international investors [18] - The correlation between the China Securities Commodity Index and major overseas indices is relatively low, indicating a unique positioning in the market [21]

Group 1 - Coking coal prices increased by over 3%, with the main contract rising by 3.34% and coking coal demand supported by active procurement from steel mills and traders [2] - Glass futures rose by 2.16%, driven by improved market sentiment and a decrease in inventory, although the fundamental support remains weak [2] - International silver prices strengthened, leading to a significant increase in Shanghai silver, which reached a new high since its listing, closing up by 1.74% [3] Group 2 - Alumina futures experienced a decline of over 2%, attributed to an oversupply situation, with weekly production exceeding 1.7 million tons and a return to historical high capacity utilization [4] - The oil market showed volatility following OPEC+'s consideration to pause further production increases, with oil prices initially rising before experiencing a significant drop [5] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projected a global oil supply increase of 2.1 million barrels per day, indicating a tightening market despite the anticipated oversupply [5][7]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market on June 26 saw more gains than losses, with coking coal and polysilicon leading the rise, both increasing over 3% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1376.07 points, up 5.40 points or 0.39% from the previous trading day [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 1907.82 points, up 7.49 points or 0.39% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Coking Coal Market - Coking coal prices rebounded over 3% on June 26, driven by improved spot trading and a week-on-week increase in steel production [2] - Since hitting a multi-year low of 709 yuan/ton in early June, coking coal prices have rebounded by over 100 yuan in less than a month [2] - Despite the rebound, analysts believe the market's supply-demand imbalance has not been resolved, limiting the potential for significant price increases [2] Group 3: Polysilicon and Industrial Silicon - Polysilicon and industrial silicon both saw significant rebounds, closing up over 3% and 2% respectively, ranking second and third in daily gains [3] - Although the oversupply situation for industrial silicon and polysilicon remains, some regional production bottlenecks and slight increases in downstream production have led to short-term marginal improvements [3] - Analysts caution that the fundamental pressures of inventory accumulation and weak demand will limit the rebound potential for polysilicon and may negatively impact industrial silicon [3] Group 4: Other Commodities - The metals sector experienced a collective rebound, with nickel rising over 2%, while tin, silver, aluminum, zinc, and lithium carbonate all increased by over 1% [4] Group 5: Soybean Meal and Oil Market - Soybean meal contracts saw significant declines, with soybean meal and rapeseed meal down 2.67% and 2.43% respectively [5] - The decline in soybean meal prices is attributed to supply pressures and a continued accumulation of inventory in domestic oil mills [5] - Analysts expect soybean meal prices to face heavy pressure in the short term, while rapeseed meal may gradually recover in the medium to long term due to reduced import volumes [5] Group 6: Crude Oil Market - SC crude oil contracts fell by 1.14%, continuing a weak trend, although international oil prices saw a slight increase due to a significant drop in U.S. crude oil inventories [6] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a decrease of 5.8 million barrels in commercial crude oil inventories, significantly exceeding market expectations [6] - Despite short-term price support from tight inventories and seasonal demand, the overall outlook for crude oil remains weak due to ongoing trade uncertainties and strong supply from OPEC+ [6]

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market saw more gains than losses on June 19, with red dates and SC crude oil contracts rising over 4% [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1403.97 points, up 9.01 points or 0.65% from the previous trading day [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 1946.50 points, up 12.50 points or 0.65% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2 - Optimistic sentiment drove red date futures to rise significantly by 4.87%, attributed to favorable weather conditions in the Xinjiang production area and reduced risk control parameters by the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange [2] - Red date futures saw a net increase of 24,000 contracts and a net inflow of over 260 million yuan, indicating strong market activity [2] - Analysts caution that high inventory levels and slow destocking may pose risks to the current bullish sentiment in red dates [2] Group 3 - Ethylene glycol continued its upward trend, rising over 2% on June 19, marking five consecutive days of gains, supported by strong fundamentals and reduced port inventory [3] - As of June 19, ethylene glycol port inventory in the East China main port decreased by 0.56 million tons to 537,000 tons, remaining at a low level since 2022 [3] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is expected to lead to a decline in ethylene glycol imports, further strengthening the bullish market atmosphere [3] Group 4 - The main contract for the European shipping index fell over 4% due to weak demand expectations despite ongoing price increases by shipping companies [4] - The easing of the China-U.S. trade situation has reduced pressure on shipping routes, but long-term price stability remains uncertain [4] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is expected to impact shipping rates and market volatility in the near term [4] Group 5 - Precious metals faced downward pressure, with silver futures dropping over 2% and gold futures also declining, influenced by the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals [5] - Despite the declines, market sentiment remains bullish due to ongoing geopolitical risks and central bank purchases supporting gold prices [5] - The production of polysilicon continues to face challenges, with the main contract hitting a new low, reflecting cautious procurement attitudes among manufacturers [5]