商品期货市场

Search documents
商品日报(9月26日):红枣增仓大涨 黑色系全线回落
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-26 11:07
Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - On September 26, the domestic commodity futures market experienced more declines than increases, with red dates and Shanghai silver contracts rising over 2% [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1463.07 points, down 2.19 points or 0.15% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Red Dates Market - Red date futures surged with a 2.97% increase, leading the commodity market, as prices returned above 11,000 yuan per ton [2] - Inventory levels for red dates decreased to 9,203 tons, a week-on-week reduction of 0.48%, although year-on-year levels remain high by 84.80% [2] - Concerns exist regarding the potential impact of weather on the new crop's quality and yield, particularly with the onset of the Mid-Autumn Festival [2] Group 3: Oilseed Market - The oilseed market showed mixed trends, with canola meal following soybean meal into a downward trend, while canola and vegetable oil continued to rise [3] - Canola oil prices increased by 1.29%, supported by a tightening supply outlook after Argentina reinstated export taxes [3] - Domestic canola seed inventories have reached low levels, and a potential reduction in processing capacity is expected post-National Day [3] Group 4: Black Metals Market - The black metals sector saw a general decline, with both coke and coking coal contracts dropping over 2% [4] - Steel mill operating rates increased to 84.45%, with daily iron output rising to 2.4236 million tons [4] - Despite increased production, market sentiment remains weak, leading to a decline in black metal prices [4] Group 5: Shipping Market - The shipping market, specifically the European freight index, turned downward with a 1.86% drop [5] - Market sentiment is shifting as the reality of price increases becomes uncertain, leading to a cautious approach among investors [5]
商品日报(9月4日):铁矿石增仓上涨日线“三连阳” 原油及化工品全线下跌
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-04 09:01
Market Overview - On September 4, the domestic commodity futures market experienced a decline, with major contracts for red dates and LU dropping over 3% [1] - The fuel oil, paraxylene, SC crude oil, asphalt, and PTA contracts fell more than 2%, while contracts for coking coal, caustic soda, and others dropped over 1% [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1436.36 points, down 4.33 points or 0.30% from the previous trading day [1] Iron Ore Market - Iron ore saw an increase in open interest and closed up nearly 1.7%, marking a "three consecutive days of gains" trend [2] - Despite weak fundamental data, expectations of high furnace restarts and downstream inventory replenishment are driving bullish sentiment in the iron ore market [2] - Domestic steel inventory has increased for six consecutive weeks, reaching a four-month high, but news of steel mills in Tangshan resuming production has positively influenced future demand expectations [2] Lithium Carbonate Market - Lithium carbonate rebounded strongly, closing up 1.05% after hitting a one-month low earlier in the day [3] - The market is optimistic about demand in September, despite recent supply-side easing due to the resumption of silver lithium production [3] - Analysts suggest that lithium prices may find direction based on actual demand changes, given that inventory levels remain high [3] Other Commodities - Egg prices continued to stabilize, with a rise of over 1% [4] - Red dates fell sharply, breaking below 11,000 yuan/ton, with a decline of 3.75% leading the market [5] - Despite expectations of reduced new season production, overall demand remains weak, contributing to downward pressure on prices [5] Crude Oil Market - International oil prices continued to decline due to unexpected increases in API crude oil inventories and concerns over potential OPEC+ production increases [6] - The API reported an increase of 622,000 barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories, contrary to expectations of a decrease [6] - Analysts predict that the end of the peak consumption season and ongoing OPEC+ expansion will create significant pressure on oil prices through the end of the year [6]
商品日报(8月28日):铁矿石涨幅居前 鸡蛋跌跌不休
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-28 11:36
Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - On August 28, the domestic commodity futures market experienced more declines than gains, with the main contract for the European shipping index dropping over 3% [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1432.26 points, down 0.05% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Iron Ore and Corn Market - Iron ore saw a recovery with a 1.74% increase, driven by a rebound in domestic steel production, with net inflow of funds around 459 million yuan [2] - Corn prices stabilized due to tight supply and increasing demand expectations, with the main contract rising 1.20% for the third consecutive day [3] Group 3: Shipping and Egg Market - The European shipping index led the market decline with a 3.31% drop, attributed to seasonal pessimism and slow high-price order progress [4] - Egg prices continued to decline, with the main contract closing at 2930 yuan/ton, driven by sharp supply-demand contradictions and high inventory levels [5] Group 4: Lithium Carbonate Market - Lithium carbonate saw a significant drop of 2.33%, although demand increased by 6% in August, indicating a potential rebound in the near future [5]
商品日报(8月27日):商品大面积飘绿 多晶硅持续走低焦煤原油大跌
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-27 09:36
Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market experienced widespread declines on August 27, with major contracts such as polysilicon dropping over 4% and SC crude oil falling more than 3% [1][5] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1427.71 points, down 14.30 points or 0.99% from the previous trading day [1] Apple Futures - Apple futures saw a significant increase in open interest, with nearly 17,000 contracts added, reaching a one-month high [2] - Despite a decline in old-season apple prices, concerns over the quality of new-season apples have led to increased expectations for higher purchase prices, particularly for late-maturing Fuji apples [2] Nickel Market - The nickel market showed a mixed performance, with prices recovering after a series of declines, marking three consecutive days of gains [3] - The overall supply surplus in the nickel market remains unchanged, but macroeconomic expectations and seasonal demand are providing support for prices [3] Polysilicon Market - Polysilicon contracts continued to decline, leading the market with a drop of 4.89% due to unclear production cut plans and weakening policy support [4] - The market is experiencing a separation of volume and price, with a potential for further price increases in the medium term as capacity consolidation progresses [4] SC Crude Oil - SC crude oil prices fell by 3.62%, influenced by U.S. tariffs on Indian imports of Russian oil and concerns over potential OPEC+ production increases [5] - The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with various factors influencing supply and demand dynamics [5] Coking Coal Market - The coking coal market is transitioning from a favorable trading policy to a weaker trading reality, with main contracts under pressure and a decline of 3.87% observed [6]
商品指数日报-20250813
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 03:32
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Tuesday (August 12), most domestic commodity futures closed higher, with industrial products mostly rising and agricultural products showing mixed performance [1] - The steel market is in a tight - balance state between "policy expectation support" and "off - season demand suppression", and high - level volatility of steel is expected. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of hot metal production and the implementation of production - restriction policies [1] - In the short term, due to the impact of China - Canada trade policies, the vegetable oil sector may continue to show a strong - oscillating trend, and palm oil may also continue its strong performance, with market sentiment remaining bullish [1] Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Black Series - Most black - series commodities rose. After the implementation of production - restriction news in Tangshan over the weekend and the upward trend of coking coal and coke futures prices, the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded by about 1%. The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 23470 tons to 1.37536 million tons last week, reaching a more than two - month high [1] Basic Metals - Most basic metals rose. For copper, with the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and a strong bullish atmosphere in industrial products, the copper market showed a strong performance. For lithium carbonate, it opened sharply higher, then oscillated and declined, with a supply contraction due to the shutdown of a mine in Jiangxi, but the increase in spodumene - based lithium production would supplement part of the supply reduction. With increased downstream production scheduling in August, the fundamentals improved marginally [1] Energy Products - Energy products rebounded after a decline. International oil prices stabilized and rebounded overnight, driving up the sentiment in the domestic crude - oil market. In the short term, due to OPEC +'s planned production increase in September and concerns about the impact of tariff policies on demand, oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Geopolitical risks may support short - term price increases. In the long term, due to OPEC +'s production - increase strategy, weakening peak - season demand, inventory accumulation, and the increasing substitution rate of the new - energy industry, oil prices are still under pressure [1] Agricultural Products - Most agricultural products rose. The preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed by the Ministry of Commerce led to a sharp rise in the far - month vegetable oil contracts, while the main 09 contract of rapeseed meal fell under the pressure of a large increase in warehouse receipts. Palm oil continued to be strong due to lower - than - expected production growth and inventory in Malaysia and the impact of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy [1]
商品日报(8月11日):碳酸锂一字涨停“带飞”新能源金属 鸡蛋SC原油刷新近两个月新低
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-11 11:14
Group 1: Market Overview - The commodity futures market showed overall strength, particularly driven by the news of lithium mine suspension at CATL's Yichun project, leading to a strong surge in lithium carbonate prices [1][2] - The domestic commodity market index closed at 1430.55 points, up 3.51 points or 0.25% from the previous trading day, while the commodity futures index closed at 1986.73 points, also up 4.87 points or 0.25% [1] Group 2: Lithium Market Dynamics - The suspension of mining operations at CATL's Yichun project raised concerns about supply tightening in the lithium market, causing lithium carbonate futures to hit the daily limit [2][3] - Despite CATL's statement regarding the application for mining license renewal, the market anticipates a short-term reduction in domestic lithium supply, which has stimulated speculative demand [2][3] Group 3: New Energy Sector Performance - The surge in lithium prices positively impacted the new energy sector, with polysilicon and industrial silicon prices rising significantly, closing up 6.34% and 4.83% respectively [3] - The overall enthusiasm in the new energy sector was reflected in the strong performance of related stocks in the A-share market [2][3] Group 4: Agricultural Products Performance - The agricultural products sector exhibited mixed performance, with red dates and palm oil experiencing strong gains, while chicken eggs and protein meal prices declined due to weak fundamentals [1][4] - Palm oil prices rose by 2.29%, supported by favorable reports on Malaysian palm oil stocks and positive export data [3][4] Group 5: Supply Pressure in Other Commodities - In contrast to the rising prices of lithium and certain agricultural products, chicken egg prices fell sharply by 3.02%, reaching a two-month low due to ample supply [4][6] - SC crude oil prices also declined by 1.41%, influenced by OPEC+'s decision to increase production, leading to expectations of continued supply pressure in the oil market [4][6]
商品日报(8月1日):焦煤跌超7% 碳酸锂逆势收涨
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-01 09:23
Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market saw a majority decline on August 1, with coking coal futures leading the drop at over 7% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1423.84 points, down 9.41 points or 0.66% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Coking Coal - Coking coal futures approached the limit down, closing with a 7.34% decline, driven by weakening market sentiment and a shift from bullish to bearish outlook [2] - The previous bullish sentiment was based on "anti-involution" policies, but current production levels in key regions like Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have stabilized, leading to a reassessment of the market [2] Group 3: Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures continued their downward trend, closing with a 4.06% decline, as market sentiment shifted back to fundamentals [3] - The supply-demand dynamics are changing, with increased production from major plants and a decrease in demand due to a fire at a downstream organic silicon plant [3] Group 4: Other Commodities - Glass and polysilicon futures recorded declines of 3.84% and 3.03% respectively, while coking coal also fell by 3% [4] - Lithium carbonate saw a rebound of 1.59%, attributed to a 7.3% decrease in domestic production and a significant drop in inventory [5] - Red dates futures increased by 1.58%, supported by concerns over lower production and increased demand in southern markets [7]
商品日报(7月31日):商品市场大面积下挫 焦煤跌停、玻璃硅铁触及跌停
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-31 08:58
Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market experienced a significant decline on July 31, with major contracts such as glass dropping over 8%, coking coal and polysilicon down over 7%, and several others falling more than 6% [1][2][3] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1425.90 points, down 23.20 points or 1.60% from the previous trading day [1] Glass Market - The glass main contract fell over 8%, nearly erasing all gains from the previous week, despite a continuous decrease in inventory [2] - As of July 31, the total inventory of float glass in sample enterprises was 59.49 million heavy boxes, marking a decrease of 239.7 thousand heavy boxes or 3.87% week-on-week [2] - The decline in glass inventory is attributed to procurement by spot traders, but the actual reduction is limited, and there is no significant improvement in downstream real estate demand [2] Coking Coal Market - Coking coal futures saw multiple contracts hit the limit down, with the main contract recording a 7.97% drop, closing at 1045.5 yuan/ton [3] - The recent political meeting's statements have dampened expectations for supply-side capacity reduction in the coal industry, leading to a more relaxed balance in the coking coal market [3] - Despite the current production losses for coking enterprises, there is still a strong demand for raw material procurement, indicating a potential for wide fluctuations in the coking coal market [3] Oil Market - SC crude oil rose over 1%, marking a third consecutive day of gains, supported by rising international oil prices [4][6] - Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Russia have introduced new supply concerns, contributing to the relative strength of oil prices amidst a broader market decline [4][6] - The asphalt market also saw a slight increase, with prices reaching a one-month high, driven by both cost factors and limited supply growth [6]
商品日报(7月30日):多晶硅临收盘再触涨停 棉花走出“六连跌”
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-30 08:51
Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market saw most contracts rise on July 30, with polysilicon leading the gains, up over 8%, followed by焦炭 (coke) up 4%, and菜粕 (rapeseed meal) up over 3% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1445.52 points, up 9.09 points or 0.63% from the previous trading day, while the China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 2007.52 points, up 12.63 points or 0.63% [1] Group 2: Polysilicon and Related Products - Polysilicon surged nearly 9% at the close, leading the commodity market, with industrial silicon and焦煤 (coking coal) also rising over 2% [2] - Despite recent market rumors being clarified by the photovoltaic association, the optimistic sentiment in the market remains strong, driven by rising polysilicon prices affecting downstream photovoltaic cell industries [2] - However, there are concerns regarding the transmission of price increases to downstream components due to weak terminal demand, leading to cautious outlooks from analysts [2] Group 3: Oil and Gas Sector - The oil and gas sector showed a mild strengthening trend, with international oil prices rising over 3% amid increased pressure on Russia, pushing WTI crude oil closer to $70 per barrel [3] - SC crude oil opened high and closed up 2.7%, while high and low sulfur fuel oils rose by 1.48% and 2.49%, respectively, reaching new highs [3] - The market's concerns about trade tensions have eased, improving demand expectations for oil products, supported by the consumption peak in the Northern Hemisphere [3] Group 4: Cotton and Pulp Market - The cotton market continued its weak performance, with cotton futures experiencing a "six consecutive declines," with main contracts down 1.89% and 1.34% for cotton and cotton yarn, respectively [4][6] - The cotton market is currently in a traditional consumption off-season, but expectations for increased terminal consumption as the "golden September and silver October" approach are noted [4] - Pulp futures have also seen a decline of over 1% as market sentiment wanes, with high supply and inventory levels leading to significant pressure [7]
原周报(LG):原木期货受宏观影响剧烈震荡-20250728
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 06:34
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is to wait and see, as the log market is expected to fluctuate significantly this week, influenced by the commodity futures market [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The log futures market has seen significant price increases due to strong commodity sentiment, decreased shipping volume, rising foreign market quotes, and expectations of a peak season in September. However, the current fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to register warehouse receipts for delivery to profit. Considering various factors such as supply, demand, inventory, trade profit, and valuation, the overall market situation is complex, and waiting and seeing is the recommended strategy [3][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In June 2025, China's total imports of softwood logs were approximately 2.1768 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% and a year - on - year increase of 15.73%. From January to June 2025, the total imports were about 12.3364 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.97% [3]. - **Demand**: From July 14th to July 20th, the average daily outbound volume of softwood logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 62,400 cubic meters, a 6.1% increase from the previous week. Among them, the average daily outbound volume at Shandong ports was 33,600 cubic meters, a 4.8% decrease from the previous week, and at Jiangsu ports was 23,200 cubic meters, a 25.4% increase from the previous week [3]. - **Inventory**: As of July 18th, the total domestic softwood log inventory was 3.29 million cubic meters, an increase of 70,000 cubic meters from the previous week. The inventory at Shandong ports was 1.932 million cubic meters, a 2% increase from the previous week, and at Jiangsu ports was 1.1 million cubic meters, basically unchanged from the previous week [3]. - **Trade Profit**: After the increase in foreign market quotes, the profit inversion situation of traders has intensified. As of July 25, 2025, the trader's profit was - 54 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week [3]. - **Valuation**: The spot price of 5.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine is 760 yuan/m³, equivalent to 790 yuan/m³ on the futures market, with the futures price at a premium [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, no specific strategy is provided. For arbitrage, register warehouse receipts for delivery. Attention should be paid to the domestic demand situation [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures**: Log futures have risen significantly due to strong commodity sentiment, decreased shipping volume, rising foreign market quotes, and expectations of a peak season in September. However, the fundamentals are currently weak, and it is recommended to register warehouse receipts for delivery to profit [7]. - **Spot**: As of July 25, 2025, in Shandong, the prices of 3.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A radiata pine were 720/740/860 yuan/m³, and 5.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A were 730/770/930 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A radiata pine were 710/760/820 yuan/m³, and 5.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A were 720/770/860 yuan/m³ [17]. 3.3 Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In June 2025, China's total imports of softwood logs were about 2.1768 million cubic meters. From January to June 2025, the total imports were about 12.3364 million cubic meters. In June 2025, imports from New Zealand were about 1.6735 million cubic meters, and from January to June 2025, about 9.2485 million cubic meters. In June 2025, imports of radiata pine were about 1.6068 million cubic meters, and from January to June 2025, about 9.0189 million cubic meters [21]. - **Shipping Volume**: As of July 20th, there were 29 ships departing from New Zealand in July, with 26 going to the Chinese mainland. It is expected that 16 ships will arrive in July and 13 in August, with an expected arrival volume of 1.63 million cubic meters in July [24]. - **Trade Profit**: With the increase in foreign market quotes, the profit inversion situation of traders has intensified. As of July 2025, the import profit of radiata pine was about - 53 yuan/m³ [31]. - **Inventory**: As of July 18th, the total domestic softwood log inventory was 3.29 million cubic meters. Among them, radiata pine inventory was 2.64 million cubic meters, North American timber inventory was 230,000 cubic meters, and spruce and fir inventory was 210,000 cubic meters. In Shandong ports, the inventory was 1.932 million cubic meters, and in Jiangsu ports, 1.1 million cubic meters [34]. - **Outbound Volume**: From July 14th to July 20th, the average daily outbound volume of softwood logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 62,400 cubic meters. The average daily outbound volume at Shandong ports was 33,600 cubic meters, and at Jiangsu ports was 23,200 cubic meters [37]. - **Downstream**: As of July 25, 2025, the wood square prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were 1270 yuan/m³ and 1260 yuan/m³ respectively, unchanged from the previous week. The processing profit in Shandong was 31 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week, and in Jiangsu was - 9.2 yuan/m³, a decrease of 15 yuan/m³ from the previous week [41].