安全边际步骤效果不明显，因为前两层筛选已涵盖龙头及低波企业，大 部分落在 PB-ROE 前三象限。 Q&A 基本面量化专场：医药投资的新解法 20250814 摘要 医药行业量化分类：将医药行业简化为医疗制造、医疗消费和医疗科技 三大主线，通过主观研究员分类和定量指标（资产、费用、人员结构） 相结合的方法，确保分类的准确性和动态适应性。 定量分类方法：通过企业资产结构、费用结构和人员结构三个维度来实 施。对于消费型企业，重点考察销售得分；对于制造类企业，则考察产 能得分；对于科技类企业，则重点观察创新得分。 分域增强选股策略：针对消费、制造、科技三类企业，分别构建选股模 型。消费领域侧重产品、品牌、渠道；制造领域关注竞争力、创新能力、 出海能力；科技领域则侧重投入产出转化效果。 风险控制：通过技术面指标（波动率）剔除高波动标的，降低急跌风险。 消费和制造池子综合考虑长期与短期波动率，剔除综合波动率较高 50% 的标的。科技板块只考虑长期波动率，同样剔除长期波动率较高 50%的 公司。 安全边际评估：利用 PB-ROE 模型（消费、制造）和 PEG 模型（科技） 评估安全边际，剔除估值过高的标的，降低短期高估风 ...

Group 1: Capital Expenditure Cycle and Industry Comparison - The capital expenditure cycle is a key driver of industry cycles in China, with capital expenditure and PB, ROE changes being interrelated. The cycle is divided into three stages: oversupply leading to performance decline, capital expenditure downtrend improving free cash flow, and supply-side clearing leading to performance recovery [7][8]. - The PB-ROE model indicates significant investment value in the second stage, where PB is low and ROE is expected to improve, and in the third stage, where PB is reasonable and ROE can steadily rise [7][8]. - Recent trends show a contraction in capital expenditure across secondary industries excluding finance and real estate, with an increase in the proportion of industries with positive free cash flow [8][9]. Group 2: Industry Opportunities and Recommendations - The report identifies 26 industries with potential investment opportunities based on supply-side improvements, focusing on consumption, cyclical, advanced manufacturing, technology, and healthcare sectors [8][9]. - A quantitative industry rotation strategy based on free cash flow has been constructed, yielding annualized returns of 11.1% and 13% for the consumption and advanced manufacturing sectors, respectively, outperforming benchmarks by 5.1 and 3.1 percentage points [9]. - Recommended companies include DeYee Co., which has a strong position in emerging markets, and AiRuo Energy, which is expected to benefit from overseas industrial storage [10][13]. Group 3: Energy Equipment and New Energy Sector - The first quarter saw a recovery in the performance of household storage inverter companies, particularly in emerging markets like India and Southeast Asia, where demand is growing [10][12]. - The report highlights the potential for rapid growth in the commercial storage market in Europe, despite a weaker overall demand in the region [10][12]. - Key players such as DeYee Co. and JinLang Technology are recommended for their strong market positions and growth potential in emerging markets [10][13]. Group 4: Automotive Industry Insights - The automotive industry's high-end strategy is categorized into two types: companies focusing on their strengths and expanding their lead, and those adopting benchmarking strategies [14][15]. - Recommended companies include Li Auto, Great Wall Motors, and Xiaomi for their distinctive brand advantages and ongoing development [15][16]. - The report notes that stricter regulations on intelligent driving are leading to increased focus on safety and compliance among automotive companies [15][16].

Group 1: Capital Expenditure Cycle Analysis - The capital expenditure (CAPEX) cycle is a dominant driver of industry cycles in China, influencing the relationship between CAPEX, price-to-book (PB) ratio, and return on equity (ROE) [4] - The CAPEX cycle is divided into three stages: Stage 1 (oversupply leads to declining ROE and poor market performance), Stage 2 (declining CAPEX results in rising free cash flow and market rebound), and Stage 3 (supply-side clearing leads to improved ROE and better market performance) [4][14][15] - The PB-ROE model indicates significant investment value in Stage 2 (low PB and improving ROE) and Stage 3 (reasonable PB and steadily rising ROE) [16] Group 2: Market and Industry Comparisons - In Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, the overall capital expenditure of A-share companies (excluding finance and real estate) is contracting, while free cash flow is improving [20] - The median CAPEX/depreciation ratio for secondary industries decreased from 1.35 to 1.29, while the median free cash flow/equity ratio increased from 4.4% to 4.8% [21] - The proportion of secondary industries with free cash flow greater than 0 has significantly increased, indicating a positive trend in cash flow [21][24] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The consumer sector shows overall CAPEX contraction and slight decline in free cash flow, with CAPEX levels below market averages and free cash flow above market averages [26] - The advanced manufacturing sector also experiences CAPEX contraction, while free cash flow shows slight improvement [4][26] - Eight industries within the consumer sector are highlighted as potential investment opportunities based on supply-side improvements [4][26]