炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：伍戈经济笔记 核心观点： 1．非常道也。年初以来，以全球制造业为表征的景气指标明显上行，已连续6个月维持在扩张区间，增 添了市场对于新一轮资本开支周期的憧憬。地缘风险加剧的背景下，全球经济景气程度为何抬升？这是 否终将有助于我国经济巩固和物价回升？ 2．近年地缘风险指标显著抬升，目前仅次于两次世界大战时期。历史可见，其亦能领先带动全球资本 开支及经济周期。与此同时，尽管市场对于AI科技定价是否存在泡沫有争议，但仍难以证伪其投资进 程正在上下游深化，及长期扩张的基本趋势。 3．上述国防、科技等共振下的资本开支扩张，叠加近期美国最高法院的关税判决，将有利于世界贸易 维持高位。以有色金属为代表的商品价格虽有波动，但其需求的绝对规模似仍有提升空间，供需平衡趋 紧的边际定价逻辑仍将支撑其未来价格走势。 4．展望未来，鉴于经济预期增速目标适度下调的可能性，外需偏强或将明显支撑我国工业生产及实际 GDP，国际定价品类对PPI降幅收窄的作用加大。不过，本轮全球科技、国防等支出扩张异于传统消费 需求，宏观读数和微观体感之间或存差异。 正文： 年初以 ...

Report Information - Report Title: 2026 Commodity Outlook - Research Team: Guolian Minsheng Securities Forward-looking Research Team - Report Date: February 13, 2026 [1] Investment Recommendations - Industrial metals: Due to the demand from the electric vehicle, energy storage, wind power, and photovoltaic sectors, and the long - term insufficient capital expenditure in copper mines and China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity approaching the limit, copper and aluminum are recommended for their potentially positive fundamentals [3]. - Minor metals: Benefiting from China's macro - regulation and supervision of strategic minerals and the supply being restricted by mining quotas, rare earths, antimony, and tungsten are recommended [3]. - Precious metals: With their defensive properties, the prices of silver and platinum are expected to enter an upward cycle, so they are recommended [3]. Core Views - The factors influencing commodity prices are divided into short - to - medium - term disturbances, cyclical factors, and trend/structural forces. Capital expenditure in the next 3 - 5 years will affect commodity supply and pricing [3]. Summary by Section 1. Commodity Price Drivers 1.1 Medium - to - Long - Term Influencing Factors: Capital Expenditure Cycle - Copper prices follow the marginal cost pricing principle, while oil prices do not fully conform. The oil price center may have a 5 - year cycle [12][14][15]. 1.2 Short - to - Medium - Term Disturbing Factors: Geopolitics and Supply - Side Restrictions - Commodity price fluctuations caused by geopolitics and supply - side restrictions usually correct within half a year to a year. The flexibility of US shale oil production can offset the impact of OPEC's production changes on oil prices to some extent, and OPEC+ production agreements affect oil prices within 6 months [23]. 1.3 Impact of Technological Progress - The impact of electric vehicle technology on oil demand is slower than on lithium carbonate demand. The new nickel production process has led to a large release of nickel ore capacity, and nickel prices have not outperformed inflation. US natural gas prices have underperformed inflation due to technological progress, and agricultural technological progress has significantly affected agricultural product prices [24][29][34][38]. 2. Traditional Energy: "Stable with Changes", Reshaping the Supply - Demand Structure 2.1 Oil Market - Global oil and gas upstream investment has been increasing since 2020, but it may not return to the high level of 2014 - 2015. OPEC's production recovery may be limited by remaining capacity. Trump's impact on US oil production may be limited. Global oil consumption is increasing, with China and India being the main contributors. The oil market may be in an oversupply situation in 2025 - 2026 [45][51][63][82][87]. 2.2 Natural Gas Market - Asian natural gas demand is stable, and China's dependence on imported LNG has weakened in 2025. US LNG project capacity is expected to grow rapidly, while Europe faces greater LNG import demand [91][98][104][112]. 2.3 Coal Market - Coal remains an important "ballast stone" in the power system. Global coal consumption growth is slowing, and supply is relatively stable. China's coal market is expected to operate stably under the policy of increasing supply and ensuring stable prices [120][126][132]. 3. Steel Industry: Weak Demand, Excess Capacity - Construction steel demand is in a low - growth state, and China's steel exports may be restricted by trade policies. Iron ore supply is expected to be loose, and the coking coal market supply - demand gap is narrowing, with prices fluctuating [134][139][149][159]. 4. Industrial Metals: Improving Supply - Demand Structure, Positive Fundamentals 4.1 Copper - Copper demand is facing a shift in growth drivers, with new energy sectors such as electric vehicles, wind power, and photovoltaics becoming important demand sources. However, copper exploration investment has been low, and the growth of ore - end resources has been suppressed. The slowdown of recycled copper smelting and the decline of processing fees may support copper prices [165][172][178][192]. 4.2 Aluminum - China's bauxite supply is tight, and imports account for a large proportion, with potential overseas supply disruptions. Global electrolytic aluminum production growth is slowing, and China's production is restricted by the capacity ceiling, which may support aluminum prices [199][208][219]. 4.3 Rare Earths - China's rare earth mining and smelting quota growth has slowed down, and the increase in overseas supply is limited [224]. 4.4 Antimony - The demand for antimony in the photovoltaic glass industry is expected to increase, but domestic antimony mine production growth is limited, and global supply is tightening [230][235]. 4.5 Tungsten - The downstream demand for tungsten is expected to improve with the recovery of the manufacturing industry. However, domestic tungsten mine production growth may slow down, while overseas supply may increase [240][246]. 5. Precious Metals: Entering an Upward Cycle - Silver and platinum - group metals may continue to be in a shortage situation. The industrial demand for silver, especially in the photovoltaic sector, is strong, while the demand for platinum and palladium in the automotive industry may decline due to the increase in electric vehicle penetration [252][257]. 6. Agricultural Products: Climate Change Challenges, Regional Market Differentiation 6.1 Soybeans - The global soybean supply - demand structure is expected to remain loose. China's soybean consumption may decline, the US renewable fuel production has decreased, and trade policies may affect the soybean trade pattern. North American and South American soybean production has different trends, and China's soybean import volume may decrease [264][269][273][278][294]. 6.2 Corn - Global corn supply is tightening, with inventory decreasing. China's corn consumption is growing steadily, the US corn production has decreased but exports have increased significantly, Brazil's corn production has different trends, and its domestic ethanol production restricts exports [299][300][309][315][320]. 6.3 Wheat - The global wheat market is in a tight - balance state. China and India's imports may increase, Russia and the EU's supply has decreased due to bad weather, while North America and Australia's wheat production has been positively affected by the weather. The supply of major exporting countries is tight, and prices are stabilizing [321][331][332][339][340].

Economic Indicators - The Manufacturing PMI for January 2026 is at 49.3%, falling below the expansion threshold of 50.1%[7] - The Production and New Orders PMI are recorded at 50.6% and 49.2% respectively, both showing significant declines from previous levels[7] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 52%, slightly down from 52.5%, but remains near the second-highest level since the implementation of equal tariff policies in April 2025[7] - The construction sector's activity has slowed significantly, with the PMI dropping below 40% due to adverse weather and the upcoming holiday[7] Demand Dynamics - New Orders PMI has seen a year-on-year decline, marking the second-lowest drop for this period, indicating insufficient domestic demand[7] - New Export Orders PMI decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 47.8%, influenced by prior export surges and trade policy adjustments from key partners[7] Price Trends - Major raw material purchase price index and factory price index have risen to 56.1% and 50.6% respectively, indicating a return to expansion after 20 months[7] - Prices in the non-ferrous metal sector are driving overall price increases, while sectors with weak internal demand, like wood processing, show price contraction[7] Future Outlook - The report suggests that geopolitical changes and investment demand in technology will continue to drive global capital expenditure and commodity prices, particularly in non-energy commodities[7] - The ongoing contradiction of strong supply versus weak demand in the domestic market remains a critical issue, with the ability of upstream prices to transmit to downstream still uncertain[7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transformative impact of AI on various industries, likening its significance to that of the internet and new energy, with a forecast that 2026 may mark a pivotal moment for AI development [2][7]. Group 1: AI Industry Insights - AI is expected to enter a "Darwinian moment" around 2026, following a technological explosion from 2023 to 2025, indicating a critical phase for investment opportunities [2][7]. - The AI industry is driving demand for storage and semiconductor sectors, with significant performance improvements noted in these areas [3][4]. - The storage sector is experiencing a "super cycle" driven by AI, with increasing demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and a contraction in supply due to previous capital expenditure cuts [7][20]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The investment strategy involves a differentiated approach, focusing on both storage and semiconductor equipment rather than solely on storage modules, leading to superior returns [3][5]. - The manager's decision to shift focus from domestic chip stocks to storage and semiconductor equipment was based on market structure analysis and industry trends [4][5]. - A commitment to deep research and understanding of industry fundamentals is crucial for identifying high-alpha companies and maintaining investment positions during market volatility [6][19]. Group 3: Sector Performance and Trends - The storage and semiconductor sectors have shown strong performance, with a reported annual return of 35% for a specific fund, significantly outperforming the storage industry index [3]. - The article highlights the importance of understanding the cyclical nature of industries, particularly in the context of capital expenditure cycles, to identify potential investment opportunities [12][14]. - The article notes that the domestic semiconductor industry is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a market size of 800 billion yuan by 2027 [8]. Group 4: Broader Market Implications - AI is reshaping valuation logic across various sectors, including pharmaceuticals, media, and energy, as it becomes a fundamental variable in investment decision-making [16][19]. - The transition of AI from a conceptual tool to a practical application is expected to enhance operational efficiencies and alter profit margins across industries [17][19]. - The demand for upstream resources, such as metals and energy, is anticipated to rise due to AI's increasing reliance on computational power and infrastructure [20][21].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the demand for AI applications is driving the semiconductor industry, particularly in advanced processes and memory chips, leading to a clear need for multinational semiconductor leaders to expand their production capacity [1] - Capital expenditure for multinational semiconductor leaders is expected to remain optimistic for the fiscal year 2026, with strong global demand for cleanroom construction [1] - Cleanroom orders are anticipated to see both volume and price increases, along with an upward adjustment in profit margins, as the basic infrastructure for semiconductor operations is expected to experience positive changes [1] Group 2 - The Guotai ETF (589630) tracks the Sci-Tech Innovation Index (000680), which had a daily fluctuation of 20%, covering 97% of the listed companies on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [1] - The index includes over 560 constituent stocks, spanning hard technology sectors such as electronics and biomedicine, and aims to reflect the overall performance of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [1] - The industry allocation of the Sci-Tech Innovation Index is balanced, focusing on the growth and innovation of technology enterprises [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant increase in trading volume, surpassing 3 trillion yuan in the first half of last week, but faced a pullback in the latter half due to increased counter-cyclical policy adjustments [2] - There is a divergence in market sentiment, with leveraged funds and individual holdings in ETFs continuing to see net inflows, while broad-based ETFs with high institutional holdings experienced a net outflow of approximately 135.1 billion yuan [2] - The overall market sentiment remains high post-volume increase, with potential upward movement if supported by fundamental and liquidity catalysts [2] Group 2: Fixed Income Insights - The public market saw a net injection of 111.28 billion yuan last week, with a total of 18.515 billion yuan injected, including 9.515 billion yuan in reverse repos [3] - The average rates for DR007, R007, and GC007 increased by 5 basis points, 6 basis points, and 3 basis points respectively compared to the previous week [3] - The liquidity environment is expected to remain tight initially but may ease as the week progresses [3] Group 3: Economic Data Analysis - In December 2025, the GDP growth rate was 4.5% for Q4 and 5% for the entire year, aligning with market expectations [5] - Industrial production and service sector output showed signs of recovery, while the construction sector is expected to maintain a significant negative growth [5] - The consumer retail sales in December increased by 0.9% year-on-year, totaling 4.5 trillion yuan, influenced by high base effects from durable goods [7] Group 4: Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector is stabilizing, with the central government's commitment to support the industry reflected in recent policy adjustments [8] - Recommended stocks include those with strong credit, good cities, and quality products, such as China Overseas Development and China Resources Land [8] - The market is expected to benefit from improved cash flow management among companies during the adjustment phase [8] Group 5: Consumer Sector - The new round of replacement policies for household appliances is expected to support demand in key categories, with a focus on smart products [7] - The consumer spending in early January 2026 showed a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, indicating a positive start to the year [7] - Investment opportunities are suggested in high-growth sectors, including domestic brands and technology consumption [7] Group 6: Company-Specific Insights - Inner Mongolia Huadian is highlighted as a stable high-dividend stock with a projected dividend yield of 4.5% for 2025 [12] - Tencent is expected to see a 13% year-on-year revenue growth in Q4 2025, driven by gaming and advertising sectors [13] - Hunan YN is projected to achieve a net profit of 11.5 to 14 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a 115% increase year-on-year, primarily due to product price increases [15]

Core Viewpoint - After the 2008 financial crisis, despite a significant decline in interest rates, global capital expenditure remained relatively restrained, with rising corporate cash reserves and commodity prices lagging behind equity assets. The acceleration of China's real estate deleveraging cycle has further integrated and cleared global commodity supply. The outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 and the rise in precious metal prices, along with accelerated AI-related investments in 2024, are expected to push certain industrial products beyond the supply-demand balance threshold. The recent price increases in cyclical goods indicate a trend of diffusion. It is anticipated that global capital expenditure will accelerate by 2026, with "consumables" growth potentially surpassing the previous "startup phase" of AI investments. Additionally, investment demand in global defense, trade, and traditional manufacturing may resonate upward, significantly boosting the "consumables" volume. This marks the first global large-scale capital expenditure cycle post-2008, emphasizing the sustained value of resource and cyclical goods from a long-term perspective [1]. Group 1 - Compared to 2024-25, the absolute volume of AI investment consumables is expected to rise significantly. The current AI investment cycle is larger and denser than the internet-related investments of the late 1990s, with a projected exponential increase in demand for bulk commodities by 2026, particularly in data centers and power infrastructure [2][8]. - The global fiscal policy is expected to synchronize in 2026, with increased defense and public investment spending. This round of fiscal expansion focuses on defense autonomy and supply chain security, leading to a significant rise in "consumables" [3][35]. - The global manufacturing cycle is anticipated to improve in 2026, closely related to the trends in industrial products. Factors such as the implementation of capital expenditure deductions from the "Big and Beautiful" Act and potential stabilization in real estate investment are expected to support manufacturing recovery [4][43]. Group 2 - China's investment and commodity demand are entering the second half of "de-real estate" dynamics. The decline in real estate-related demand has provided a buffer for global demand, but this buffer is expected to diminish as the real estate "consumables" volume approaches its decline's end [5][64]. - The inflationary environment and the "consumable" capital expenditure cycle are structurally increasing the value of commodity allocations. The rising physical demand for industrial products is expected to support the prices of cyclical goods, even amid slowing demand growth [6][5].

Core Viewpoint - UBS warns of a severe copper shortage in 2026/27 due to declining efficiency in mining capital investments, requiring $175 billion to fill a 7 million ton gap, while Goldman Sachs sees a short-term surplus driven by "tariff panic" [1][2][7]. Group 1: Capital Expenditure and Supply Challenges - UBS highlights that despite rising copper prices, mining project approvals (FID) remain at low levels from 2023 to 2025, indicating a structural supply shortage in the copper market [2][3]. - The report reveals that while nominal global copper industry capital expenditure remains stable at around $40 billion, real capital expenditure in 2025 is only about 30% of the peak level in 2013, showing a declining trend over the past three years [4]. - UBS notes a significant increase in capital intensity, with potential projects from 2025 to 2030 requiring an average capital intensity of $25,000 per ton, a 50% increase compared to projects approved from 2021 to 2025 [6]. Group 2: Future Supply and Investment Needs - UBS's long-term model indicates that global mining supply will peak between 2028 and 2030 and then decline, with a supply-demand gap expected to reach 7 million tons by 2035 [7][8]. - To address this gap, the industry needs to invest over $175 billion in new projects immediately, but project approvals are still near cyclical lows, making it difficult to meet demand growth [8][10]. - New project capital expenditure needs to increase to $5 billion by 2026 and reach $20 billion annually by 2030, maintaining this level until 2035 [10]. Group 3: Price Dynamics and Market Sentiment - UBS believes that current spot prices are at or above levels that can incentivize new project investments, estimating that a long-term copper price of $5.0 per pound (approximately $11,000 per ton) is necessary to stimulate most new projects [11]. - Despite prices reaching these levels, major companies like BHP and Rio Tinto are prioritizing mergers and acquisitions over high-risk new mine developments, indicating a slow supply response [11]. - The market is experiencing a split, with UBS focusing on long-term supply constraints and rising costs, while Goldman Sachs and Citigroup warn of a fragile balance driven by tariff fears and potential oversupply in the short term [18].

Core Viewpoint - There is a significant divergence in Wall Street's outlook on copper prices following a 22% surge, with UBS warning of a structural shortage by 2026/27 due to low project approvals, contrasting with Goldman Sachs and Citigroup's short-term caution regarding price sustainability driven by U.S. tariff fears [1][11][12] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - UBS analysts predict that despite a mixed demand outlook, the copper market will face a shortage by 2026/27, supported by declining inventories [5][12] - UBS's long-term model indicates that global mining supply will peak between 2028-2030 and then decline, with a projected supply-demand gap of 7 million tons by 2035 [5][6] - To address this gap, the industry needs to invest over $175 billion in new projects, with capital expenditures needing to rise significantly by 2026 and 2030 [6][8] Group 2: Capital Expenditure Challenges - UBS highlights that while nominal capital expenditures in the copper industry remain around $40 billion, real expenditures adjusted for inflation are only about 30% of the peak levels seen in 2013 [2][5] - The capital intensity of new projects is increasing, with potential projects from 2025-2030 requiring an average of $25,000 per ton, a 50% increase compared to previous projects [2][5] Group 3: Short-term Market Sentiment - Goldman Sachs and Citigroup express concerns that the recent price surge is primarily driven by speculative "stockpiling" in anticipation of U.S. tariffs, warning of a potential price correction once policy clarity is achieved [11][12] - Goldman Sachs maintains a forecast of a price drop to $11,200 per ton by Q4 2026, while Citigroup suggests that January may represent the peak price for 2026 [11][12] Group 4: Investment Strategies of Major Players - UBS notes that major mining companies like BHP and Rio Tinto are prioritizing mergers and acquisitions over high-risk new project developments, despite current prices being at levels that could incentivize new investments [8][12] - Key projects that may receive final investment decisions in the next 2-3 years include expansions in Chile and Argentina, as well as projects in the U.S. [8][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The report highlights the introduction of a stock incentive plan aimed at achieving significant profit growth from 2026 to 2028, with targets set for net profit growth and return on equity [6] - The report anticipates a reduction in industry capital expenditure cycles, which is expected to positively impact the company's pricing flexibility in 2026 [6] - The company is accelerating its layout in specialty fabrics, which is expected to lead to breakthroughs in the market [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: 15,856 million - 2025: 18,577 million - 2026: 20,317 million - 2027: 23,155 million - Year-on-year growth rates for total revenue are projected at 6.6% for 2024, 19.5% for 2025, 17.2% for 2026, and 14.0% for 2027 [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be: - 2024: 2,445 million - 2025: 3,676 million - 2026: 4,733 million - 2027: 5,241 million - The report indicates a significant increase in net profit growth rates, with 67.5% for 2025 and 28.7% for 2026 [5] - The report projects earnings per share to be: - 2024: 0.61 - 2025: 0.92 - 2026: 1.18 - 2027: 1.31 [5] Industry Insights - The report notes that the capital expenditure cycle in the fiberglass industry is nearing its end, with a projected net increase in capacity of only 27,000 tons for 2026 [6][8] - The report indicates that the industry inventory levels have stabilized, suggesting a healthy absorption of new capacity [6][9] - The company is expected to benefit from resilient demand in sectors such as wind energy, automotive, and home appliances, which are projected to maintain steady growth [6]