Core Viewpoint - China Biopharmaceutical (01177) maintains a buy rating with a target price of HKD 9.4, based on DCF analysis with a WACC of 10.01% and a perpetual growth rate of 2.0% [1] Financial Projections - Expected revenue growth rates for China Biopharmaceutical are +19.1% in 2025, +4.4% in 2026, and +10.6% in 2027 [1] - Adjusted net profit growth rates are projected at +81.3% in 2025, -30.0% in 2026, and +11.3% in 2027 [1] Clinical Results of TQC3721 - TQC3721, a PDE3/4 inhibitor, showed significant improvement in lung function and symptoms in a Phase II clinical trial involving 240 moderate to severe COPD patients [2] - After 4 weeks of treatment, the FEV1 peak values for the 3mg and 6mg groups were higher than the placebo group by 100ml and 147ml, respectively [2] - The 6mg group also demonstrated a significant FEV1 AUC (0-12h) increase of 87ml compared to the placebo group, with a SCRQ score improvement of 5.09 units [2] Comparative Analysis - TQC3721's clinical data indicates it has the potential to be a best-in-class treatment, with FEV1 peak values comparable to those of the recently approved drug Ensofen [3] - The patient baseline in TQC3721's trial was worse, as 30% had previously used LAMA and 70% used LABA/LAMA, suggesting greater clinical benefit potential for real-world COPD patients [3] Market Potential - The global COPD market is substantial, with nearly 480 million affected individuals, and over 100 million in China, making it a significant health concern [4] - The recent FDA approval of Ensofen, the first new mechanism COPD drug in over 20 years, highlights the market's potential, with sales reaching USD 0.71 million and USD 1.03 million in Q1 and Q2 2025, respectively [4] - The acquisition of Verona by Merck for USD 10 billion underscores the significant market opportunity for PDE3/4 inhibitors, positioning TQC3721 as a strong candidate for overseas licensing [4]

Core Viewpoint - China Biopharmaceutical (01177) maintains a buy rating with a target price of HKD 9.4, based on a DCF model with a WACC of 10.01% and a perpetual growth rate of 2.0% [1] Financial Projections - Expected revenue growth rates for China Biopharmaceutical are +19.1% in 2025, +4.4% in 2026, and +10.6% in 2027 [1] - Adjusted net profit growth rates are projected at +81.3% in 2025, -30.0% in 2026, and +11.3% in 2027 [1] - The firm has not factored in potential contributions from external licensing agreements to revenue and profit due to cautious considerations [1] Clinical Results of TQC3721 - TQC3721, a PDE3/4 inhibitor, showed promising results in a Phase II clinical trial, significantly improving lung function and symptoms in patients with moderate to severe COPD [2] - In the trial, patients receiving 3mg and 6mg doses of TQC3721 had FEV1 peak values higher than the placebo group by 100ml and 147ml, respectively [2] - The 6mg group also demonstrated a significant improvement in FEV1AUC (0-12h) by 87ml compared to the placebo [2] - The safety profile of TQC3721 was favorable, with no significant adverse effects observed in gastrointestinal, cardiovascular, or liver and kidney functions [2] Comparative Analysis - TQC3721's clinical data suggests it has best-in-class potential, with FEV1 peak values comparable to those of the approved drug ensifentrine [3] - The patient population in TQC3721's trial had a worse baseline compared to those in ensifentrine's trial, indicating a greater potential for clinical benefit in real-world COPD patients [3] - In the subgroup of patients using LAMA, the 6mg group of TQC3721 had a FEV1 peak value higher than the ensifentrine group by 104ml [3] Market Potential - The COPD market is substantial, with nearly 480 million affected globally and over 100 million in China, making it a significant health and economic burden [4] - The recent FDA approval of ensifentrine, the first new mechanism COPD drug in over 20 years, highlights the market's potential, with sales reaching USD 0.71 million and USD 1.03 million in Q1 and Q2 2025, respectively [4] - The acquisition of Verona by Merck for USD 10 billion underscores the significant market opportunity for PDE3/4 inhibitors [4] - TQC3721, being the second globally in development and the only one in Phase III, is seen as having substantial potential for overseas licensing [4]

Core Insights - China Biopharmaceutical presented positive Phase II clinical results for its PDE3/4 inhibitor TQC3721 at the European Respiratory Society 2025 conference, showing rapid improvement in lung function and symptoms for COPD patients [1][2] Group 1: Clinical Results - TQC3721 demonstrated significant improvements in FEV1 peak values compared to the placebo group, with increases of 100ml and 147ml for the 3mg and 6mg groups respectively after 4 weeks of treatment [1] - In the subgroup of patients using LAMA and LABA/LAMA, the 6mg group showed a FEV1 peak increase of 239ml compared to the placebo group [1] - The safety profile of TQC3721 was favorable, with no significant adverse effects observed in gastrointestinal, cardiovascular, or liver and kidney functions during the clinical trial [1] Group 2: Comparative Analysis - TQC3721's clinical data suggests it has best-in-class potential, with the 6mg group showing FEV1 peak values consistent with those of the recently approved drug ensifentrine [2] - The baseline characteristics of TQC3721 trial participants were poorer compared to those in the ensifentrine trials, indicating a greater potential for clinical benefit in real-world COPD patients [2] Group 3: Market Potential - The global COPD market is substantial, with nearly 480 million affected individuals worldwide, and over 100 million in China, making it a significant health and economic burden [3] - The recent acquisition of Verona by Merck for $10 billion highlights the market potential for PDE3/4 inhibitors, with ensifentrine's sales showing strong growth [3] - TQC3721, being the second globally in development and the only PDE3/4 inhibitor in Phase III trials, is positioned for significant overseas licensing opportunities [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 9.40, indicating a potential upside of 20.5% from the current price of HKD 7.80 [4][10]. Core Insights - The clinical data for the PDE3/4 inhibitor TQC3721 shows promising results, with significant improvements in lung function and symptoms for patients with severe COPD after 4 weeks of treatment [1][2]. - TQC3721 is positioned as the second globally in development and the only PDE3/4 inhibitor currently in Phase III clinical trials, suggesting substantial market potential and opportunities for licensing [10][12]. - The financial projections indicate a revenue growth of 19.1% for FY25E, with adjusted net profit expected to increase by 81.3% in the same year [3][13]. Financial Summary - Sales revenue (in million RMB) is projected to grow from 26,199 in FY23A to 34,380 in FY25E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.1% [3][17]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to rise from 2,589 in FY24A to 6,267 in FY25E, marking an increase of 81.3% [3][13]. - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to reach RMB 0.33 in FY25E, with a corresponding adjusted P/E ratio of 21.6 [3][10]. Clinical Data Highlights - In the Phase II clinical trial, TQC3721 demonstrated a peak FEV1 improvement of 147ml compared to the placebo group, aligning with the results of the approved competitor, ensifentrine [2][10]. - The safety profile of TQC3721 is favorable, with no significant adverse effects reported in gastrointestinal, cardiovascular, or renal functions during the trials [1][10]. Market Context - The global COPD market is substantial, with nearly 480 million affected individuals, and TQC3721's development is timely given the increasing demand for effective treatments [10][12]. - The competitive landscape is highlighted by the recent FDA approval of ensifentrine, which underscores the potential for TQC3721 to capture market share as it progresses through clinical trials [10][12].

Core Viewpoint - Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) has a high prevalence and mortality rate, indicating a significant unmet medical need for new treatment options [1] Group 1: Unmet Medical Needs in COPD - COPD is a leading cause of disability and death globally, with approximately 300 million cases worldwide and 100 million in China [1] - Current standard treatments (LAMA/LABA/ICS) have been in use for 40 years and carry risks of pneumonia, cardiovascular issues, and urinary tract infections, highlighting the urgent need for new therapies [1] Group 2: PDE3/4 Inhibitors and Market Activity - Merck acquired Verona for $10 billion to obtain Ensifentrine, while GSK spent approximately $12.5 billion to acquire HRS-9821 from Hansoh Pharma, reflecting the importance of the respiratory market and PDE3/4 targeted drugs [2] - PDE3 and PDE4 inhibitors have synergistic effects, potentially improving airway smooth muscle contraction and controlling inflammation, thus showing significant application potential [2] - Ensifentrine received FDA approval in June 2024, with sales reaching $217 million by Q2 2025, representing a 44% quarter-over-quarter growth, indicating substantial market potential [2] Group 3: Targeted Therapies for Eosinophilic Phenotype - Dupilumab (IL-4R) and mepolizumab (IL-5) have been successfully approved for COPD, focusing on high eosinophil count populations [3] - Dupilumab, the first targeted therapy for COPD, was approved by the FDA in 2024, with sales exceeding $14 billion in 2024 [3] - Mepolizumab showed positive results in trials with eosinophilic phenotype patients, demonstrating a correlation between eosinophil count and reduced acute exacerbation rates [3] Group 4: Emerging Targets and Domestic Innovations - TSLP and ST2/IL33 targets currently lack approved drugs, but domestic companies are innovating [4] - Amgen/AZ's tezepelumab is the only TSLP monoclonal antibody on the market, while domestic firms like Zhengda Tianqing and Kangnuo are developing differentiated therapies with promising efficacy [4] - The ST2/IL33 target, which is upstream of IL-4/IL-13, is being explored by domestic companies, with no approved drugs globally yet [4]

Group 1 - Heng Rui Medicine (01276) experienced a rebound of over 3% in early trading, with a current stock price of 77.35 HKD and a trading volume of 254 million HKD [1] - Heng Rui has reached a cooperation agreement with GSK regarding HRS-9821 and up to 11 other projects, granting GSK exclusive licensing rights for overseas rights [1] - GSK will pay Heng Rui 500 million USD as part of the agreement, indicating significant financial backing for the projects involved [1] Group 2 - The PDE3/4 inhibitor, HRS-9821, is currently in clinical development and is considered a high-potential target for treating chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) [1] - According to Guosheng Securities, the potential of PDE3/4 inhibitors is substantial, and the business development (BD) transaction is expected to enhance Heng Rui's performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent $5 billion upfront payment by GSK for the overseas rights of HRS-9821 and 11 innovative projects from Heng Rui Pharmaceutical highlights the growing interest and potential in the COPD treatment market, which has seen little innovation for over a decade [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The global COPD market is projected to exceed $20 billion by 2024, with HRS-9821 being a significant new entrant after a long period without new mechanisms [1][5]. - The approval of Ensifentrine, a PDE3/4 inhibitor, has revitalized interest in COPD treatments, demonstrating a 36%-43% reduction in acute exacerbation rates [5][6]. - The transaction indicates a shift in focus for Chinese pharmaceutical companies towards common and chronic diseases, revealing untapped value in the respiratory drug market [2][3]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Major players in the COPD treatment market include AstraZeneca, GSK, and Boehringer Ingelheim, which have historically dominated with LABA, LAMA, and ICS therapies [3][5]. - The success of PDE3/4 inhibitors is expected to prompt other pharmaceutical companies to explore similar pathways, with companies like Zhengda Tianqing and Haisco making significant progress in their own PDE3/4 inhibitor developments [9][10]. - The market is witnessing a potential consolidation of opportunities, with Chinese companies likely to dominate the remaining PDE3/4 development space [7][9]. Group 3: Future Opportunities - The complexity of COPD's pathophysiology suggests that while PDE3/4 inhibitors are promising, they will not be the only future players, as biologics targeting different mechanisms are also emerging [10][11]. - New therapeutic approaches, including cell therapies and biologics targeting TSLP, are being explored, indicating a diversification in treatment options for COPD [12][14]. - The anticipated market for COPD treatments may evolve into a tiered selection model, where traditional therapies provide foundational care while innovative products address more challenging cases [14].

Core Insights - The article highlights a positive market reaction to the National Healthcare Security Administration's initiation of the 11th batch of drug procurement, which favors innovative drug companies by exempting them from the procurement process for mature "old drugs" [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 17, the Sci-Tech Innovation Biopharmaceutical ETF (588250.SH) rose by 1.47%, with its associated index, Sci-Tech Biopharmaceutical (000683.SH), increasing by 1.51% [1] - Key constituent stocks such as Zai Lab (5.00%), BeiGene (3.73%), and others showed significant gains, indicating strong investor interest in innovative drug firms [1] Group 2: Policy Impact - The new procurement policy is interpreted as a favorable development for innovative drug companies, leading to a positive market sentiment towards the sector [1] - The exemption of innovative drugs from the procurement process is expected to alleviate policy risks for companies in the innovation drug space [1] Group 3: Research Insights - Research from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that AI technology is increasingly penetrating the pharmaceutical industry, enhancing drug molecule development success rates by 9%-18% and reducing development cycles by over 50% [1] - Shanxi Securities notes rapid sales growth of PDE3/4 inhibitors in COPD maintenance treatment, with companies advancing clinical trials for other indications, reflecting a dual drive of technological iteration and clinical demand in the biopharmaceutical sector [1]