公司25Q3 实现营收3.95 亿元/yoy-12.82%/qoq+21.68%，归母净利润0.13亿元/yoy-86.36%，归母净利率 3.20%/yoy-17.26pct。（25Q2 实现收入3.25亿元/yoy-53.16%，归母净利润0.17 亿元/yoy-91.43%，归母净 利率5.33%/yoy-23.79pct）。Q3 营收降幅收窄，我们预计公司总体销量同比降幅企稳但价格同比仍有压 力，主要受全球防晒剂需求回落、行业产能扩张/价格竞争加剧等多因素影响。公司作为全球防晒剂龙 头，综合规模与管线储备仍处行业领先地位，在行业阶段性下行周期中龙头地位稳固，抗风险能力显著 优于中小企业。当前公司毛利率、净利率均处历史较低水位（21Q4 毛利率历史低点为20.22%），若后 续市场回暖，公司订单量及单价有望改善，公司盈利能力或具较大弹性。维持买入评级。 Q3 收入降幅收窄 公司自23Q3 起因全球防晒剂供需关系与市场格局变化，营收同比增速放缓，24Q3 起营收同比增速转 负。25Q1/Q2/Q3 公司营收yoy-44.29%-53.16%/-12.82%，其中Q2 因去年高基数，同比降幅显著，Q3 降 ...

Report Information - Report Title: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: October 19, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Chen Xinchao, Zhao Shucen [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating was provided in the report. Core Views LPG - This week, LPG's civil price declined due to international oil prices and a loose domestic supply - demand pattern; import costs dropped as FEI and CP decreased. The contract rebounded from previous lows. In the short - term, chemical demand is weak, and supply is affected by macro and policy uncertainties. Attention should be paid to macro factors, import costs, and international geopolitical situations [3]. Propylene - This week, domestic propylene prices declined due to changes in supply and demand. Supply decreased slightly, and demand weakened significantly. Next week, supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand will improve, but the loose pattern will continue. Propylene prices are expected to remain weak with limited downside [4]. Summary by Directory LPG - Price & Spread - LPG domestic spot prices, including those of civil gas and other types, generally declined this week. Import gas prices also showed a downward trend, and the basis of various types of LPG changed significantly [7]. - The US - Far East freight dropped sharply, and the spreads between FEI and CP showed opposite trends. Propane prices weakened significantly [14][23]. LPG - Supply - US propane shipments to Japan and South Korea increased significantly due to the substitution of cracking raw materials. Canadian propane shipments decreased slightly. Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, and other Middle Eastern countries' LPG shipments showed different trends. China's LPG imports decreased, and the total LPG commodity volume increased slightly [32][40][59]. - The total domestic LPG commodity volume was 55.0 tons (+1.3%), with civil gas at 22.2 tons (+1.8%). Propane imports decreased by 12.9 tons [62][71]. LPG - Demand & Inventory - The开工 rates of PDH and MTBE decreased slightly. In terms of inventory, LPG refinery and port inventories were at a high level year - on - year and mainly decreased month - on - month (except in Shandong) [77][86][96]. Propylene - Price & Spread - Upstream prices of the propylene industry chain generally declined, and propylene prices also decreased. The prices of downstream products in the propylene industry chain showed different trends, and the profits of some products changed significantly [107][109]. - International and domestic propylene prices both showed a downward trend, with international prices having a slight correction from high levels and domestic prices running weakly [110][118]. Propylene - Balance Sheet - The开工 rates of the propylene industry chain changed this week, with some devices having decreased开工 rates. The supply and demand of propylene in the national balance sheet showed different trends in different months, and the inventory decreased slightly [128][130][131].

1. Market News and Key Data - Propylene: The closing price of the main propylene contract was 6,415 yuan/ton (+10), the spot price in East China was 6,575 yuan/ton (+0), and the spot price in North China was 6,630 yuan/ton (-5). The basis in East China was 160 yuan/ton (-10), and the basis in North China was 215 yuan/ton (-15). The propylene operating rate was 75% (-1%), the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha was 190 US dollars/ton (-4), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR was 89 US dollars/ton (-10), the import profit was -159 yuan/ton (+25), and the in-plant inventory was 39,110 tons (-1,210) [1]. - Propylene downstream: The operating rate of PP powder was 41% (+1.22%), and the production profit was -260 yuan/ton (+5); the operating rate of propylene oxide was 73% (-1%), and the production profit was -120 yuan/ton (-62); the operating rate of n-butanol was 87% (-2%), and the production profit was -123 yuan/ton (+3); the operating rate of octanol was 94% (+2%), and the production profit was 154 yuan/ton (-47); the operating rate of acrylic acid was 69% (-1%), and the production profit was 157 yuan/ton (+0); the operating rate of acrylonitrile was 74% (+1%), and the production profit was -682 yuan/ton (+30); the operating rate of phenol-ketone was 76% (-2%), and the production profit was -539 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. 2. Market Analysis Supply side - Regarding the main PDH units, Hebei Haiwei's 500,000-ton unit was under maintenance, Wanhua Penglai had a restart expectation recently, Shandong Zhenhua's PDH restart was postponed, and Qingdao Jinneng's maintenance continued. The PDH operating rate decreased month-on-month, and the external supply of propylene tightened, which supported the price in the short term. Attention should be paid to the continuous maintenance of the units [2]. Demand side - The operating rates of propylene downstream industries showed a mixed trend. The operating rate of PP increased month-on-month, mainly due to the support from the demand for PP downstream packaging films, injection molding, etc.; the operating rate of octanol continued to rise significantly, while the operating rates of n-butanol, PO, and phenol-ketone declined significantly. The downstream demand showed a slight recovery in the short term, but the overall profit of downstream products was average. The increase in the propylene spot price compressed the downstream profit, and the purchasing enthusiasm of some downstream industries weakened, suppressing the upward space of propylene. Attention should be paid to the stocking demand as the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches [2]. Cost side - OPEC+ has a production increase expectation, and the crude oil price may decline; the Saudi CP propane price in September was 520 US dollars/ton, unchanged month-on-month, and the landed price of the overseas propane swap also has a decline expectation [2]. 3. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; The expected tightening of PDH propylene supply supports the price, but the downstream profit is under pressure and may lack follow-up strength [2]. - Inter - period: None [2]. - Inter - variety: None [2]. 4. Report Catalog Summary I. Propylene Basis Structure - It includes figures such as the closing price of the main propylene contract, the basis in East China and North China, the 01 - 05 contract of propylene, and the market prices in East China and Shandong [6][9][11]. II. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - It involves figures like the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and the capacity utilization rate of the main crude oil refineries [17][25][32]. III. Propylene Import and Export Profit - It contains figures such as the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [35][39]. IV. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - It includes figures of the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - ketone [42][44][47]. V. Propylene Inventory - It involves figures of propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [68].

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the propylene industry is neutral [3]. Core Viewpoints - On the supply side, the start - up rate of PDH decreased month - on - month due to the maintenance of new units, and the reduction of propylene external sales volume supported the price in the short term. On the demand side, the start - up rates of propylene downstream industries showed a differentiated trend, with a slight improvement in short - term downstream demand, but the increase in propylene spot prices compressed downstream profits, which might suppress downstream purchasing enthusiasm. On the cost side, the decline in crude oil prices weakened cost support [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Relevant figures include the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis of propylene, the North China basis of propylene, the 01 - 05 contract of propylene, the market price of propylene in East China, and the market price of propylene in Shandong [7][10][12]. 2. Propylene Production Profit and Start - up Rate - Relevant figures include the difference between China CFR of propylene and Japan CFR of naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit of propylene, PDH capacity utilization rate of propylene, MTO production gross profit of propylene, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [15][20][30]. 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Relevant figures include the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, the difference between Japan CFR and China CFR, the difference between Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [33][35]. 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Start - up Rate - Relevant figures include the production profit and start - up rate of PP powder, the production profit and start - up rate of propylene oxide, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of n - butanol, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of octanol, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of acrylic acid, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of acrylonitrile, and the production profit and capacity utilization rate of phenol - acetone [41][43][46]. 5. Propylene Inventory - Relevant figures include propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [67].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for Q4 increased by 10% to $1.4 billion, while excluding Paycor, total revenue increased by 3% [20] - For the full fiscal year 2025, total revenue grew by 6% to $5.6 billion [23] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share increased by 6% to $1.19 in Q4, while diluted earnings per share decreased by 22% to $0.82 [22] - Adjusted operating income margins for Q4 were 40.4%, an increase of approximately 20 basis points [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Management Solutions revenue increased by 12% to $1 billion for Q4, driven by the addition of Paycor and higher revenue per client [21] - PEO and Insurance Solutions revenue increased by 4% to $340 million for Q4, supported by growth in average PEO worksite employees [21] - Interest on funds held for clients increased by 18% to $45 million for Q4, primarily due to the inclusion of Paycor balances [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The number of clients served increased to approximately 800,000, with HR outsourcing worksite employees rising to 2.5 million [6] - Client retention rates improved year over year, indicating strong value provided to clients [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to strategically accelerate investments for future growth while focusing on cost synergies of approximately $90 million in fiscal year 2026 [7][26] - The HCM platforms will be segmented, with Paychex Flex targeting companies with up to 99 employees and Paycor focusing on enterprises with over 100 employees [9] - The company is committed to enhancing operational efficiency and maintaining industry-leading operating margins [6][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management noted a mix of optimism and uncertainty in the market, with small businesses remaining fundamentally healthy despite external pressures [16][17] - The company expects total revenue growth for fiscal year 2026 to be in the range of 16.5% to 18.5%, with Management Solutions projected to grow by 20% to 22% [26] - Management expressed confidence in achieving revenue synergies and highlighted the importance of cross-selling opportunities [11][90] Other Important Information - The company returned over $1.5 billion to shareholders through cash dividends and share repurchases during the fiscal year [25] - The financial position remains strong, with cash and investments totaling $1.7 billion and total borrowings of approximately $5 billion [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the distractions related to the sales force integration and its impact on Q4? - Management acknowledged that they made strategic decisions to complete changes quickly to minimize disruption, and they do not expect significant spillover effects into Q1 [33][37] Question: What factors contributed to the deceleration in organic Management Solutions growth from Q3 to Q4? - Management noted softer checks and a mix issue with smaller client sizes, along with MPP enrollment headwinds impacting growth [42][44] Question: How does the company plan to reaccelerate organic client growth? - The company will focus on organic client growth of 1% to 3% while driving product penetration and maintaining pricing strength [49][50] Question: What is the outlook for Paycor's growth in fiscal 2026? - Management expects Paycor to be a strong double-digit grower, with some conservatism in guidance to ensure deliverability [59] Question: Can you clarify the impact of recent bankruptcies and financial distress on the company? - Management indicated that while there were increases in bankruptcies, the impact on revenue was minimal, particularly at the lower end of the client base [72][84]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Wanhua Chemical [8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 182.1 billion RMB for the year, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 22.5% to 13 billion RMB [1] - The decline in profit was primarily due to increased expenses and asset impairment provisions [1] - Despite the challenges, the gross profit margin remained stable year-on-year, and the company expects profitability to improve in 2025-2026 due to supply-demand improvements and new project launches [1][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4, the company achieved a revenue of 34.5 billion RMB and a net profit of 1.94 billion RMB, which represented a quarter-on-quarter decline of 53% and 34% respectively [1] - The annual profit decline was attributed to asset impairment and rising expenses, while gross profit remained stable [2] Market Conditions - The average prices for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI in Q4 were 18,600 RMB/ton, 18,400 RMB/ton, and 12,900 RMB/ton, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1%, 5%, and a decrease of 5% respectively [2] - The report indicates that the prices of major products are at relatively low levels compared to the past five years, with expectations for gradual improvement in supply-demand dynamics [3] Growth Prospects - The company has several projects in the pipeline, including new MDI/TDI capacities of 700,000 tons and 360,000 tons in Fujian and Ningbo respectively, with the ethylene project expected to be completed by the end of 2025 [4] - New projects are anticipated to contribute to incremental performance improvements [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been adjusted to 17.7 billion RMB and 21.4 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 36% and 21% [5] - The target price is set at 95.71 RMB, based on a 17x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting the company's leading position in the polyurethane industry [5]