【机构观点】 卓创资讯：12月PTA行情涨至下半年高点，本轮PTA行情冲高的主因是成本支撑、刚需偏好、PTA出口量较高。PX供需预期更加 乐观，华东一套重整装置检修在即，以及亚洲PX装置公布明年检修安排，PX行情冲高，12月PX月均价环比涨幅超过3%，无视原 油月均价下跌的影响，直接推涨PTA行情。下游刚需偏好，12月聚酯月均开工负荷仍然接近89%，助力PTA去库存。11月PTA出口 量35.89万吨，环比增加61.26%，加速PTA去库存，利好市场心态。 成本支撑、下游聚酯开工负荷仍然较高、PTA出口预期偏好等利好因素大概率推涨PTA行情，但终端需求将进入传统淡季，需求转 弱将抑制PTA涨势，预估后期PTA行情突破2025年高点之后续涨空间不大。 来源：曲合期货 12月29日午盘开盘，PTA 主力合走低，盘内跌超2%。PTA供需紧平衡、低库存与成本支撑形成共振，但供应回归预期及终端季节 性转弱正在缓慢兑现限制上行空间，2605期价运行区间4800-5300。中期来看，2026年PTA无新增产能，低加工费下老旧高成本产 能出清进程加快，行业供应收缩逻辑逐步兑现;且PX 2026年上半年供需缺口明确，成本支撑将 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 卓创资讯分析师 安光 需求端：需求淡季来临。截至12月25日，下游聚酯开工负荷仍在89%左右，对PTA刚需偏好，但江浙织 造综合开机率为61.5%，织机开机率处于持续下降状态。产业链终端需求负反馈将自下而上利空市场， 导致聚酯开工负荷下降，而2025年12月聚酯原料价格冲高，聚酯产品理论生产亏损，聚酯工厂可能提前 减产。2018-2025年1-3月的聚酯开工负荷分别在80%、77%、86%左右，预估2026年1-2月聚酯开工负荷 将有明显的下降，利空PTA需求。 本轮PTA行情冲高的主因是成本支撑、刚需偏好、PTA出口量较高。PX供需预期更加乐观，华东一套重 整装置检修在即，以及亚洲PX装置公布明年检修安排，PX行情冲高，12月PX月均价环比涨幅超过 3%，无视原油月均价下跌的影响，直接推涨PTA行情。下游刚需偏好，12月聚酯月均开工负荷仍然接 近89%，助力PTA去库存。11月PTA出口量35.89万吨，环比增加61.26%，加速PTA去库存，利好市场心 态。 PTA出口明显回升，是近期市场中最明显的变量。11月出口印度6.98万吨，较10月 ...

Group 1: General Information - Report Date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Report Type: PTA Daily Report [1] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: On the 29th, the closing price of the PTA main futures contract TA2601 was 4,652 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton or 0.26%. The settlement price was 4,650 yuan/ton, and the daily position decreased by 23,048 lots. The trading volume of TA2601 was 580,757 lots, a decrease of 23,048 lots. The closing price of TA2605 was 4,698 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 20,245 lots, a decrease of 1,384 lots [6] - Market Outlook: The crude oil market showed a volatile downward trend, which had a negative impact on market sentiment. Before the holiday, the trading atmosphere in the PTA spot market was dull, and market participants mainly adopted a wait - and - see attitude. With sufficient spot supply, the PTA market is expected to decline slightly [6] Group 3: Industry News - Crude Oil: Affected by the continuous attacks on a European country's oil infrastructure by Ukraine and the potential additional sanctions from the EU and the US, concerns about supply constraints have increased. European and American crude oil futures rose to their highest levels in nearly two months. On Friday (September 26), the settlement price of the WTI November 2025 futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $65.72 per barrel, up $0.74 or 1.14%. The settlement price of the Brent November 2025 futures contract on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $70.13 per barrel, up $0.71 or 1.02% [7] - PX: The price of PX in the Chinese market was estimated at $815 - 817 per ton, up $2 per ton. The price in the South Korean market was estimated at $795 - 797 per ton, up $2 per ton. The PX market showed a slight increase, and the cargoes for November and December were traded at $816 per ton [7] - PTA in East China: The price of PTA in the East China market was stable at 4,597 yuan/ton. The average daily negotiation basis was at a discount of 54 yuan/ton compared to the futures contract 2601, up 13 yuan/ton [7] Group 4: Data Overview - Data Sources: Wind, Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][12][14] - Data Charts: Include charts on international crude oil futures prices, upstream raw material spot prices, PX prices, MEG prices, PTA futures prices, basis, PTA processing margins, TA5 - 9 spreads, PTA warehouse receipts, polyester factory load rates, PTA downstream product prices, and PTA downstream product inventories [11][13][17]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for PTA is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract opening at 4820.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 4958.00 CNY, reflecting a price increase of approximately 3.49% [1] - Short-term PTA prices are expected to be supported by cost increases and active downstream restocking, while medium-term outlook suggests potential pressure from new production capacities and high inventory levels [1][2] - The supply side is seeing a slowdown in inventory depletion, while the demand side is under pressure due to high polyester inventory levels, leading to expectations of reduced production in the future [2] Group 2 - The PTA basis has significantly increased, with transactions reported at +250-280, indicating a tightening of spot liquidity and a decrease in port inventory to 180,000 tons [2] - The market is expected to maintain a strong oscillation in the near term, influenced by downstream cost pressures and the potential for significant reductions in bottle chip production [2]