【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2026年1月28日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比减少0.89个百分点至78.74%，PVC开工 率小幅减少，处于近年同期中性水平。下游赶在节前促销，PVC下游开工率环比上升0.95个百分点， 但下游主动备货意愿偏低。出口方面，受取消出口退税影响，市场出现抢出口现象，PVC出口签单大 幅增加，升至近年来的高位，随着出口价格上涨，成交阻力增大，不过，美国面临寒潮冲击之下， 国内出口签单继续环比小幅走高，中国台湾台塑PVC 2月份出口船货报价上涨40美元/吨。上周社会库 存继续增加，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-12月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新 开工、施工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商 品房周度成交面积环比继续回升，但仍处于近年同期最低水平，房地产改善仍需时间。化工板块情 绪提振，氯碱综合毛利承压，部分生产企业开工预期下降，但目前产量下降有限，本周福建万华、 山东恒通仍在检修，PVC开工率变化不大，期货仓单仍处高位。1月是国内PVC传统需求淡季，临近春 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near term due to factors such as decreased supply - side开工率, poor downstream demand, high inventory, and the real - estate market still in adjustment [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC开工率 decreased by 1.07 percentage points to 78.36% week - on - week, continuing to decline and remaining at a moderately high level compared to recent years. The downstream开工率 of PVC decreased by 3.5 percentage points week - on - week, and downstream product orders are poor [3][18]. - In terms of exports, PVC increased export orders slightly last week by sacrificing price, but the price in the Indian market is low and demand is limited. Attention should be paid to the January quotation of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan [3]. - Social inventory decreased slightly last week but remains high, with significant inventory pressure. December is the traditional off - season for domestic PVC demand. After the increase in spot prices, market transactions are light [3][25]. - From January to November 2025, the real - estate market is still in the adjustment stage. Investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas have large year - on - year declines, and the year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, new construction, and completion have further decreased. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased week - on - week but is still at the lowest level in recent years, and the real - estate market needs time to improve [3][24]. - New production capacities of 300,000 tons/year from Gansu Yaowang and 300,000 tons/year from Jiaxing Jiahua have recently been put into operation. Due to anti - involution sentiment, the rebound of bulk commodities such as coking coal boosts market sentiment, the comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali decreases, and the expected开工率 of some production enterprises declines, but the current production decline is limited, and futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level [3]. PVC Basis - The current 05 basis is - 215 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [12]. Real - Estate Data - From January to November 2025, national real - estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The sales area of commercial housing was 787.02 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%, with residential sales area down 8.1%. The sales volume of commercial housing was 751.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.1%, with residential sales volume down 11.2% [24]. - From January to November 2025, the new construction area of houses was 534.57 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.5%, with residential new construction area down 19.9%. The construction area of real - estate development enterprises was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. The completion area of houses was 394.54 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.0%, with residential completion area down 20.1% [24]. - As of the week of December 21, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 20.86% week - on - week but is still at the lowest level in recent years. Attention should be paid to whether real - estate favorable policies can boost commercial housing sales [24]. PVC Inventory - As of the week of December 18, PVC social inventory decreased by 0.25% week - on - week to 1.0566 million tons, 28.58% higher than the same period last year. Although social inventory decreased slightly, it remains high [25].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - PVC is expected to move in a sideways pattern, and its upside potential is limited in the near term due to factors such as high inventory, weak downstream demand, and the traditional off - season [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate decreased by 0.46 percentage points to 79.43% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream operating rate of PVC declined slightly, and downstream product orders were poor. In terms of exports, PVC exchanged volume for price, and last week's export orders increased, but the Indian market price is falling, and Indian demand is limited. Social inventory increased slightly last week and remains high, with significant inventory pressure. From January to November 2025, the real estate market is still in the adjustment phase, with large year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas, and further drops in year - on - year growth rates. The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased week - on - week but is still at the lowest level in recent years. The real estate market needs time to improve. New production capacities of 300,000 tons/year from Gansu Yaowang and 300,000 tons/year from Jiaxing Jiahua have recently been put into operation. The rebound of bulk commodities such as coking coal boosted market sentiment, the comprehensive gross profit of chlorine - alkali decreased, and the operating expectations of some producers declined, but the current decline in production is limited, and futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level. Taiwan Plastics' December quotes generally decreased, and the Indian market price is falling, with limited Indian demand. December is the traditional off - season for domestic PVC demand [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The PVC2605 contract increased in positions and moved in a sideways pattern, with a minimum price of 4,639 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 4,694 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 4,680 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.17%. The position increased by 40,723 hands to 890,154 hands [2] - Basis: On December 17, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China rose to 4,410 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,680 yuan/ton. The current basis is - 270 yuan/ton, strengthening by 4 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Affected by facilities such as Ningbo Zhengyang and Yibin Tianyuan, the PVC operating rate decreased by 0.46 percentage points to 79.43% week - on - week, continuing a slight decline and remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year from Wanhua Chemical, 400,000 tons/year from Tianjin Bohua, 200,000 tons/year from Qingdao Haiwan, 300,000 tons/year from Gansu Yaowang, and 300,000 tons/year from Jiaxing Jiahua have been put into operation in the second half of the year [4] - Demand: The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase, with large year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further drops in year - on - year growth rates. From January to November 2025, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The sales area of commercial housing was 787.02 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8% (residential sales area decreased by 8.1%); the sales volume of commercial housing was 751.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.1% (residential sales volume decreased by 11.2%). The new construction area of houses was 534.57 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.5% (residential new construction area decreased by 19.9%); the construction area of real estate development enterprises' houses was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. The completion area of houses was 394.54 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.0% (residential completion area decreased by 20.1%). The overall real estate market needs time to improve. As of the week of December 14, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 13.80% week - on - week but is still at the lowest level in recent years. Attention should be paid to whether real estate favorable policies can boost commercial housing sales [5] - Inventory: As of the week of December 11, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.03% week - on - week to 1.0593 million tons, 27.63% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory increased slightly and remains high (Longzhong increased the social storage capacity in East and South China from 21 to 41) [6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report predicts that PVC will experience weak and volatile trends in the near term due to factors such as a weakening cost - end, high social inventory, upcoming completion of equipment maintenance at companies like Inner Mongolia Junzheng, average spot trading, and high - level futures warehouse receipts [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs [行情分析] - Upstream calcium carbide prices in the northwest region are stable. The PVC operating rate decreased by 5.94 percentage points to 76.69% but remains at a relatively high level in recent years. After the National Day holiday, downstream PVC recovery was significant, but the downstream operating rate is still at a low level compared to the same period in previous years [1]. - India has postponed the BIS policy for another six months until December 24, 2025. Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, has lowered its November quotation by $30 - 40 per ton. India announced an increase in anti - dumping duties on imported PVC from mainland China by about $50 per ton on August 14, weakening China's PVC export expectations in the fourth quarter. However, export orders have not weakened significantly after the recent decline in export prices [1]. - As of the week of October 16, PVC social inventory decreased by 0.24% to 1.0338 million tons, 33.52% higher than the same period last year. Although inventory has slightly decreased, it remains high [1][7]. - From January to August 2025, the real estate market is still in the adjustment phase, with significant year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further decreases in year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, and completion. The weekly trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities continued to decline and is near the lowest level in recent years, indicating that real estate improvement requires time [1][6]. - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is still positive, and the PVC operating rate is higher than in previous years. New production capacities have been put into operation, including Wanhua Chemical's 500,000 - ton/year capacity in August, Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 - ton/year capacity expected to be stably produced by the end of September after trial production in August, Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 - ton/year capacity in early September, and Gansu Yaowang and Jiaxing Jiahua's 300,000 - ton/year capacities operating at low loads after trial production [1][5]. - Six departments have jointly issued a work plan for stable growth in the building materials industry, but no actual policies have been implemented in the PVC industry. Anti - involution and the elimination of old - fashioned devices are macro - policies that will affect future market trends [1]. [期现行情] - In the futures market, the PVC2601 contract oscillated with a reduction in positions. The lowest price was 4,675 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,729 yuan/ton, and it closed at 4,688 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a 0.45% increase and a decrease in open interest by 56,022 lots to 1,212,927 lots [2]. - On October 17, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China rose to 4,630 yuan/ton. The closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,694 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 58 yuan/ton, strengthening by 36 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a moderately low level [3][4]. [基本面跟踪] - Supply side: Companies such as Shandong Xinfeng, Lutai Chemical, and Inner Mongolia Junzheng have entered equipment maintenance. The PVC operating rate decreased by 5.94 percentage points to 76.69%, but it remains at a relatively high level in recent years. New production capacities have been put into operation as mentioned above [5]. - Demand side: The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase. From January to August 2025, national real estate development investment was 603.09 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%. The sales area of commercial housing was 573.04 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%; the sales volume was 550.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.3%. New construction area decreased by 19.5% year - on - year, and completion area decreased by 17.0% year - on - year. As of the week of October 12, the trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 2.44% week - on - week and is near the lowest level in recent years [6]. - Inventory: As of the week of October 16, PVC social inventory decreased by 0.24% to 1.0338 million tons, 33.52% higher than the same period last year. Although inventory has slightly decreased, it remains high [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC: The PVC market is affected by macro - sentiment, with the disk fluctuating strongly. However, the fundamentals remain weak. Supply pressure is high due to increased production, while demand is weak, leading to inventory accumulation. Although the cost provides some support, the 09 - contract has significant warehouse receipt pressure [5]. - Caustic Soda: The supply of caustic soda is at a high level, but there may be a slight decline in the future. Demand from the alumina sector is improving, and the spot price is expected to stabilize and rebound. Attention should be paid to downstream restocking during the peak season and the production schedule of Guangxi alumina [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Key Data PVC - Futures: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 5016 yuan/ton (-31), the East China basis is -136 yuan/ton (+31), and the South China basis is -76 yuan/ton (+31) [3]. - Spot: The East China calcium - carbide - based PVC is priced at 4880 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4940 yuan/ton (+0) [3]. - Upstream Profit: The production gross profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC is -252 yuan/ton (-231), and that of ethylene - based PVC is -489 yuan/ton (-10). The export profit is 6.9 dollars/ton (-2.1) [3]. - Inventory and Operation: The in - factory inventory is 33.7 tons (-0.8), the social inventory is 48.1 tons (+3.3), and the overall operation rate is 77.75% (+4.49%) [3]. - Downstream Orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 83.2 tons (-2.2) [3]. Caustic Soda - Futures: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2481 yuan/ton (-21), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 19 yuan/ton (+21) [3]. - Spot: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton (+0), and that of 50% is 1310 yuan/ton (+10) [3]. - Upstream Profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1509 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 765.8 yuan/ton (+40.0) [4]. - Inventory and Operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 46.17 tons (+3.75), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.21 tons (+0.10), and the operation rate is 85.10% (+1.20%) [4]. - Downstream Operation: The alumina operation rate is 85.73% (+0.15%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 59.28% (+0.39%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 84.97% (+0.00%) [4]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply: The operation rate has increased significantly, and new production capacity is being gradually put into production, leading to an expected increase in output and high supply pressure [5]. - Demand: The operation of downstream products remains at a low level, with enterprises purchasing on a just - in - time basis. Export performance is affected by policies and the rainy season [5]. - Inventory: The social inventory continues to accumulate, and the absolute value of inventory is high. The 09 - contract has significant warehouse receipt pressure [5]. - Cost: The prices of calcium carbide and semi - coke are relatively stable, providing some cost support [5]. Caustic Soda - Supply: The upstream operation rate is at a high level, but there may be a slight decline in the future. Attention should be paid to the operation rate in Shandong from late August to September [5]. - Demand: Alumina operation is improving, and the spot price is expected to stabilize and rebound. Non - aluminum demand remains weak [5]. - Inventory: The inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu has decreased, and downstream enterprises may stock up in advance [5]. Strategy - PVC: The single - side strategy is neutral, and the V09 - 01 inter - period reverse spread is recommended [6]. - Caustic Soda: The single - side strategy is to wait and see [6].