Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC rebounds with macro - sentiment, but supply is ample and demand is average. Attention should be paid to anti - involution policies and "15th Five - Year Plan" real estate policies. The PVC market is expected to fluctuate widely with the macro - environment, and V01 - 05 should be reverse - arbitraged when prices are high [3][4] - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a downward trend. There are new production capacities, and demand is affected by environmental control and seasonal factors. The market should be observed, and the impact of new alumina plant procurement needs to be noted [3][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Market News and Important Data - Futures price: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4775 yuan/ton (+59). The East China basis is - 135 yuan/ton (- 49), and the South China basis is - 55 yuan/ton (- 49) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4640 yuan/ton (+10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4720 yuan/ton (+10) [1] - Upstream production profit: The blue charcoal price is 740 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2830 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 52 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 723 yuan/ton (- 10), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 560 yuan/ton (- 8), and the PVC export profit is - 4.6 dollars/ton (- 0.9) [1] - Inventory and开工: The in - factory PVC inventory is 33.4 tons (- 2.7), the social PVC inventory is 55.5 tons (- 0.2), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate is 71.65% (- 3.08%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate is 78.56% (+2.46%), and the overall PVC operating rate is 73.74% (- 1.40%) [1] - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 63.5 tons (+8.0) [1] Market Analysis - Supply: Some maintenance enterprises have resumed production, and new production capacities are gradually reaching full production, resulting in an abundant supply [3] - Demand: Downstream operating rates have increased, but the trading atmosphere is average. The social inventory has slightly decreased, but the absolute inventory level is high [3] - Export: In September, PVC exports were 34.64 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.94% and a year - on - year increase of 24.53%. The cumulative exports were 292.15 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.58%. However, the export of PVC products may be affected by anti - dumping investigations [3] - Futures: The PVC futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and the hedging pressure on the futures price persists [3] Caustic Soda Market News and Important Data - Futures price: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2361 yuan/ton (+20), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 139 yuan/ton (- 20) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1250 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1509 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 965.8 yuan/ton (+40.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 133.78 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1034.24 yuan/ton (- 101.01) [2] - Inventory and开工: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 41.43 tons (+1.10), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.45 tons (+0.00), and the caustic soda operating rate is 80.80% (- 0.60%) [2] - Downstream开工: The alumina operating rate is 86.27% (+0.05%), the printing and dyeing operating rate in East China is 67.31% (+0.55%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate is 88.61% (+0.00%) [2] Market Analysis - Supply: New production capacities have reached full production, and there are both new maintenance enterprises and those increasing production. The supply is affected by new capacity releases and maintenance situations [3] - Demand: The alumina orders in Shandong are stable, but the unloading efficiency has decreased. The alumina operating rate has been slightly affected by environmental control. Non - aluminum demand is mainly for rigid procurement and will enter the off - season [3] - Inventory: The liquid caustic soda inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu has increased [3] - Price support: The expected commissioning of alumina plants in Guangxi and ongoing caustic soda tenders may support the caustic soda price in the next two months [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report predicts that PVC will experience weak and volatile trends in the near term due to factors such as a weakening cost - end, high social inventory, upcoming completion of equipment maintenance at companies like Inner Mongolia Junzheng, average spot trading, and high - level futures warehouse receipts [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs [行情分析] - Upstream calcium carbide prices in the northwest region are stable. The PVC operating rate decreased by 5.94 percentage points to 76.69% but remains at a relatively high level in recent years. After the National Day holiday, downstream PVC recovery was significant, but the downstream operating rate is still at a low level compared to the same period in previous years [1]. - India has postponed the BIS policy for another six months until December 24, 2025. Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, has lowered its November quotation by $30 - 40 per ton. India announced an increase in anti - dumping duties on imported PVC from mainland China by about $50 per ton on August 14, weakening China's PVC export expectations in the fourth quarter. However, export orders have not weakened significantly after the recent decline in export prices [1]. - As of the week of October 16, PVC social inventory decreased by 0.24% to 1.0338 million tons, 33.52% higher than the same period last year. Although inventory has slightly decreased, it remains high [1][7]. - From January to August 2025, the real estate market is still in the adjustment phase, with significant year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further decreases in year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, and completion. The weekly trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities continued to decline and is near the lowest level in recent years, indicating that real estate improvement requires time [1][6]. - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is still positive, and the PVC operating rate is higher than in previous years. New production capacities have been put into operation, including Wanhua Chemical's 500,000 - ton/year capacity in August, Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 - ton/year capacity expected to be stably produced by the end of September after trial production in August, Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 - ton/year capacity in early September, and Gansu Yaowang and Jiaxing Jiahua's 300,000 - ton/year capacities operating at low loads after trial production [1][5]. - Six departments have jointly issued a work plan for stable growth in the building materials industry, but no actual policies have been implemented in the PVC industry. Anti - involution and the elimination of old - fashioned devices are macro - policies that will affect future market trends [1]. [期现行情] - In the futures market, the PVC2601 contract oscillated with a reduction in positions. The lowest price was 4,675 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,729 yuan/ton, and it closed at 4,688 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a 0.45% increase and a decrease in open interest by 56,022 lots to 1,212,927 lots [2]. - On October 17, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China rose to 4,630 yuan/ton. The closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,694 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 58 yuan/ton, strengthening by 36 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a moderately low level [3][4]. [基本面跟踪] - Supply side: Companies such as Shandong Xinfeng, Lutai Chemical, and Inner Mongolia Junzheng have entered equipment maintenance. The PVC operating rate decreased by 5.94 percentage points to 76.69%, but it remains at a relatively high level in recent years. New production capacities have been put into operation as mentioned above [5]. - Demand side: The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase. From January to August 2025, national real estate development investment was 603.09 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%. The sales area of commercial housing was 573.04 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%; the sales volume was 550.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.3%. New construction area decreased by 19.5% year - on - year, and completion area decreased by 17.0% year - on - year. As of the week of October 12, the trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 2.44% week - on - week and is near the lowest level in recent years [6]. - Inventory: As of the week of October 16, PVC social inventory decreased by 0.24% to 1.0338 million tons, 33.52% higher than the same period last year. Although inventory has slightly decreased, it remains high [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - PVC: The PVC market fluctuates with the macro - environment. Supply is abundant due to new capacity and some restarted plants. Although downstream demand has increased with more pre - sales, social inventory is rising, and export expectations are weakening in Q4. The market is in a weak supply - demand situation with potential for further profit compression [4]. - Caustic Soda: The spot price of 32% caustic soda has been decreasing, while the orders for 50% caustic soda are improving. Production may increase slightly as some plants resume operation. Demand support is wavering, but cost support remains, and the profit is at a medium level compared to the same period [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **PVC** - Futures: The closing price of the main PVC contract is 4891 yuan/ton (- 47), with an East China basis of - 171 yuan/ton (+ 7) and a South China basis of - 81 yuan/ton (+ 17) [2]. - Spot: East China calcium - carbide - based PVC is priced at 4720 yuan/ton (- 40), and South China calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4810 yuan/ton (- 30) [2]. - Upstream Profit: The calcium - carbide profit is 48 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium - carbide - based PVC gross profit is - 657 yuan/ton (- 155), the ethylene - based PVC gross profit is - 652 yuan/ton (+ 20), and the PVC export profit is - 4.6 dollars/ton (- 0.1) [2]. - Inventory and Operation: Factory inventory is 30.6 tons (- 0.4), social inventory is 53.5 tons (+ 0.3), the calcium - carbide - based PVC operation rate is 76.91% (- 3.38%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate is 72.00% (- 5.20%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 75.43% (- 3.96%) [2]. - Downstream Orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 75.6 tons (+ 6.7) [2]. - **Caustic Soda** - Futures: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2535 yuan/ton (- 69), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 35 yuan/ton (+ 69) [2]. - Spot: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda is 1300 yuan/ton (+ 30) [2]. - Upstream Profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1509 yuan/ton (+ 0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 685.8 yuan/ton (+ 0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 179.78 yuan/ton (+ 0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1361.25 yuan/ton (- 20.00) [3]. - Inventory and Operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 37.83 tons (+ 2.15), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.18 tons (- 0.03), and the caustic soda operation rate is 81.90% (- 1.50%) [3]. - Downstream Operation: The alumina operation rate is 86.23% (+ 1.02%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 65.76% (+ 0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 89.52% (+ 1.75%) [3]. Market Analysis - **PVC** - Supply: Shaanxi Beiyuan plans to conduct maintenance, and some previously maintained plants have restarted, with expected lower maintenance losses. Newly - commissioned plants are increasing, resulting in an abundant supply [4]. - Demand: Downstream pre - sales are increasing, and overall downstream operation has improved, but the trading atmosphere is average. Exports are increasing in the short - term but are expected to weaken in Q4 [4]. - Inventory: Social inventory is rising, and the absolute inventory level is high [4]. - Price: The futures price is under pressure due to high - level warehouse receipts and hedging [4]. - **Caustic Soda** - Supply: Some previously maintained plants in Hubei and Inner Mongolia have restarted, and new capacity in Tianjin Bohua has reached full production [4]. - Demand: Alumina orders in Shandong are stable, but high - price sales are difficult, and inventory is accumulating. Non - aluminum downstream operation is increasing, but there is a fear of high prices [4]. - Price: The price of 32% caustic soda has decreased, while the price of 50% caustic soda has stabilized [4]. - Profit: The profit is at a medium level compared to the same period, with cost support [4]. Strategy - **PVC** - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5] - Inter - month Spread: Sell the near - term contract and buy the far - term contract for V01 - 05 when the spread is high [5] - Inter - commodity Spread: None [5] - **Caustic Soda** - Unilateral: Wait - and - see [6] - Inter - month Spread: Buy the near - term contract and sell the far - term contract for SH01 - 05 when the spread is low [6] - Inter - commodity Spread: None [6]

Report Summary 1. Market Overview - As of September 11th, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Coking coal, industrial silicon, and red dates rose over 2%, while polysilicon, coke, pulp, apples, lithium carbonate, and soda ash rose over 1%. The container shipping index (European line) dropped over 5%, and 20 - rubber and iron ore fell nearly 1% [6]. - Stock index futures generally rose, with the CSI 300 futures (IF) up 2.64%, the SSE 50 futures (IH) up 1.56%, the CSI 500 futures (IC) up 3.44%, and the CSI 1000 futures (IM) up 2.94%. Treasury bond futures also had mixed results, with the 2 - year (TS) up 0.06%, the 5 - year (TF) up 0.14%, the 10 - year (T) up 0.07%, and the 30 - year (TL) down 0.11% [6][7]. - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:30 on September 11th, the CSI 300 2509, CSI 500 2509, and SSE 50 2509 had capital inflows of 1.584 billion, 1.533 billion, and 0.68 billion respectively. Meanwhile, the Shanghai gold 2510, CSI 1000 2509, and Shanghai silver 2510 had outflows of 1.252 billion, 0.605 billion, and 0.376 billion respectively [7]. 2. Core Views Copper - The US August PPI was lower than expected. China's copper ore imports increased by 7.4% year - on - year in August. Refining fees are falling, and 5 smelters plan to have maintenance in September, which may lead to a decline in domestic electrolytic copper production. Imported copper will affect the domestic market. Demand is weak, and the market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [9]. Crude Oil - The seasonal travel peak is over, and US oil inventories are increasing. OPEC + will adjust production in October, which may increase pressure in Q4. Saudi Aramco cut prices. The market should watch the progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiation and India's oil purchases. It is recommended to short at high prices in the medium - to - long - term and close short positions in the short - term [10][11]. Asphalt - Supply is decreasing, and demand is also weak due to factors like weather and capital. OPEC +'s planned production increase will weaken cost support. It is recommended to close short positions and expect a sideways movement [12][13]. PP - Downstream开工率 is rising, and new capacity has been put into operation. With the improvement of the weather, the downstream is entering the peak season. The market is expected to be volatile with limited downside [14]. Plastic - The开工率 is stable, and downstream demand, especially in the agricultural film sector, is increasing. New capacity has been added. The market is expected to be volatile with limited downside [15][16]. PVC - Supply is increasing, and downstream demand is still weak. Exports are expected to decline. Inventory is high, and the real estate market is still adjusting. The market is expected to decline with volatility [17]. Urea - The market is weak with high inventory and low demand. However, the price is at a low level, and there may be a technical rebound [18][19].