1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC has increased this week, and the expected maintenance is expected to decrease next week with a slight increase in production scheduling. The current demand may remain sluggish, and the overall supply pressure is strong while the domestic demand recovery is not smooth. PVC2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4928 - 5016. [8][9][10][13] - The bullish factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. The bearish factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. [12] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints Supply - In December 2025, PVC production was 2.137356 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.79%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 78.63%, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 338,150 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 145,710 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.51%. [8] Demand - The overall downstream operating rate was 43.94%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.58 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 29.78%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.78 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 35.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 66.43%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 80.75%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. [9] Cost - The profit of calcium carbide method was - 713.56 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 6.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 279.49 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 16.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2187.67 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 3.00%, lower than the historical average. [9] Basis - On January 7th, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4760 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 212 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. [10] Inventory - The in - factory inventory was 309,226 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.98%. The calcium carbide factory inventory was 226,576 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.46%. The ethylene factory inventory was 82,650 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.30%. The social inventory was 525,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.21%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 5.1 days, a month - on - month decrease of 3.77%. [10] Market - MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above MA20. [10] Main Position - The main position is net short, and the short position has increased. [10] Expectation - The cost of calcium carbide method and ethylene method has strengthened, and the overall cost has strengthened. The supply pressure has increased this week, and the expected maintenance is expected to decrease next week with an increase in production scheduling. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. [10] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's PVC market overview data, including prices, spreads, inventory, operating rates, profits, costs, and production of different types of PVC [15][16]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - The report presents the basis trend, price and trading volume trends, and spread analysis of PVC futures [18][21][24]. 3.4 PVC Fundamentals Calcium Carbide Method - Related - It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, and production of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method, as well as the double - ton spread and caustic soda consumption and inventory [27][30][32][35][38]. Supply - It shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily and weekly production, and maintenance volume of calcium carbide method and ethylene method PVC [40][42]. Demand - It includes the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream operating rate, and profit, cost, and production of paste resin of PVC. It also shows the real estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area, as well as social financing scale, M2 increment, local government special bonds, and infrastructure investment [44][47][51][54]. Inventory - It presents the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days of PVC [55]. Ethylene Method - It provides the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads of the ethylene method [57]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the monthly export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, import, and supply - demand difference of PVC from September 2024 to October 2025 [60].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The PVC market is experiencing a weak and volatile trend recently. The supply side has an increasing PVC operating rate and new production capacity, while the demand side is affected by the ongoing adjustment of the real estate industry, and the inventory pressure is still relatively large [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The upstream calcium carbide price in Northwest China is stable. The PVC operating rate has increased by 1.39 percentage points to 80.22% and remains at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream PVC operating rate is basically stable. The termination of India's BIS policy on PVC has alleviated concerns about China's PVC exports to India, and the anti - dumping duty is likely to be cancelled. However, Formosa Plastics' December quotes have generally decreased by $30 - 60 per ton, and last week's export orders have declined. The social inventory has increased slightly and remains high. The real estate industry is still in the adjustment stage, and although the weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities has rebounded, it is still near the lowest level in recent years. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is still positive, and new production capacity has been put into operation. The meeting on formulating cost - determination standards for disorderly price competition has given some boost to bulk commodities, but factors such as the end of maintenance of some enterprises, high futures warehouse receipts, and the traditional off - season in December will lead to a weak and volatile PVC market [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2601 contract decreased in positions, fluctuated, and declined. The lowest price was 4,483 yuan per ton, the highest was 4,540 yuan per ton, and it finally closed at 4,500 yuan per ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.90% and a decrease in positions of 31,263 to 990,081 hands [2]. Basis - On December 4th, the mainstream price of calcium - carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4,435 yuan per ton. The futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,500 yuan per ton. The current basis is - 65 yuan per ton, strengthening by 16 yuan per ton, and the basis is at a moderately low level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply Side**: The operating rates of some devices such as Henan Lianchuang and Shaanxi Jintai have increased, and the PVC operating rate has increased by 1.39 percentage points to 80.22%, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. New production capacities, including Wanhua Chemical's 500,000 - ton/year, Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 - ton/year, Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 - ton/year, Gansu Yaowang's 300,000 - ton/year, and Jiaxing Jiahua's 300,000 - ton/year, have been put into production or are operating at low loads [4]. - **Demand Side**: The real estate industry is still in the adjustment stage. From January to October 2025, the national real estate development investment was 735.63 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. The sales area of commercial housing was 719.82 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.8%. The sales volume was 690.17 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.6%. The new construction area was 490.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.8%. The completion area was 348.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.9%. As of the week of November 30th, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 18.17% week - on - week and was near the lowest level in recent years [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of November 27th, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.99% week - on - week to 1.0428 million tons, 23.44% higher than the same period last year, and the inventory remains high [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The upstream calcium carbide price in the northwest region has increased by 25 yuan/ton. The PVC supply-side开工率 has decreased slightly to 76.57%, but remains at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream开工率 has continued to rise, exceeding the levels of the past two years but still remaining low. The expected PVC exports from China in the fourth quarter have weakened. The social inventory has increased slightly and remains high, and the inventory pressure is still significant. The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase, and improvement will take time. The comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali is still positive, and the PVC开工率 is higher than in previous years. With new production capacity coming online, and no actual policies implemented in the PVC industry yet, the cost side has strengthened. It is expected that PVC will fluctuate in the near term [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The upstream calcium carbide price in the northwest region has increased by 25 yuan/ton. The PVC supply-side开工率 has decreased by 0.12 percentage points to 76.57%, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream开工率 has continued to rise, exceeding the levels of the past two years but still remaining low. India has postponed the BIS policy for another six months until December 24, 2025. Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China has lowered its November quotation by 30 - 40 US dollars/ton. India announced a new anti-dumping duty on imported PVC on August 14, with an increase of about 50 US dollars/ton for the Chinese mainland. The expected PVC exports from China in the fourth quarter have weakened. However, exports in September were still good, and the export orders have not significantly declined. The social inventory has increased slightly and remains high, and the inventory pressure is still significant. From January to September 2025, the real estate market was still in the adjustment phase, with significant year-on-year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further decreases in the year-on-year growth rates of investment, sales, and construction. The weekly trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities has continued to decline and remains at a near-record low level in recent years. The improvement of the real estate market will take time. The comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali is still positive, and the PVC开工率 is higher than in previous years. New production capacity has come online, and there are no actual policies implemented in the PVC industry yet. The cost side has strengthened, and it is expected that PVC will fluctuate in the near term [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PVC2601 contract increased in position and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4,702 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,749 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 4,708 yuan/ton, below the 20-day moving average, with a decline of 0.36%. The position increased by 14,264 lots to 1,227,305 lots [2]. - Basis: On October 24, the mainstream price of calcium carbide-based PVC in the East China region rose to 4,635 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,708 yuan/ton. The current basis was -73 yuan/ton, strengthening by 17 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a moderately low level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: Companies such as Hangjin Technology and Shandong Xinfeng are undergoing maintenance. The PVC开工率 has decreased by 0.12 percentage points to 76.57%, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. New production capacity includes Wanhua Chemical's 500,000 tons/year production capacity, which has been in full production since August; Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 tons/year production capacity, which is expected to be in stable production by the end of September after trial production in August; Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 tons/year production capacity, which was put into operation in early September and is currently near full production; and Gansu Yaowang and Jiaxing Jiahua's 300,000 tons/year production capacities, which are operating at low loads after trial runs [4]. - Demand side: The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase, with significant year-on-year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further decreases in the year-on-year growth rates of investment, sales, and construction. From January to September 2025, the national real estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9%. From January to September, the commercial housing sales area was 658.35 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%; among them, the residential sales area decreased by 5.6%. The commercial housing sales volume was 630.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.9%, and the residential sales volume decreased by 7.6%. From January to September, the new construction area of housing was 453.99 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 18.9%; among them, the new construction area of residential housing was 332.73 million square meters, a decrease of 18.3%. From January to September, the construction area of housing by real estate development enterprises was 6.4858 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4%. From January to September, the completion area of housing was 311.29 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 15.3%; among them, the completion area of residential housing was 222.28 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 18.3%. Overall, the improvement of the real estate market will take time. As of the week of October 19, after the National Day holiday, the trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities increased by 54.79% week-on-week, but remained at the lowest level in recent years. Attention should be paid to whether real estate favorable policies can boost commercial housing sales [5]. - Inventory: As of the week of October 23, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.13% week-on-week to 1.0352 million tons, a 24.87% increase compared to the same period last year. The social inventory has increased slightly and remains high (Longzhong has increased the social warehousing capacity in East and South China from 21 to 41) [6].

Core Viewpoint - The PVC futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with prices fluctuating and a recent decline of approximately 2.19% observed in the main contract [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 1, the main PVC futures contract opened at 4885.00 CNY/ton, with a high of 4888.00 CNY and a low of 4810.00 CNY [1]. - The overall market performance for PVC is weak, indicating a bearish sentiment among traders [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply remains high despite a slight decrease in production due to maintenance of new facilities, with expectations of further production increases in the future [2]. - Demand from downstream products is declining, particularly in the hard plastic pipe sector, influenced by seasonal factors and weak orders from enterprises [1][2]. - The export market is under pressure due to the rainy season in India, leading to a decrease in orders [1]. Group 3: Price Trends and Forecasts - The PVC spot market is showing a downward trend in price, with a lack of significant trading activity [2]. - Short-term forecasts suggest continued price fluctuations, with resistance noted around 4905 CNY for the September contract [2]. - The overall valuation drivers for PVC remain insufficient, with weak cost support from calcium carbide prices and stable ethylene prices [1].