【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年12月04日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加1.39个百分点至80.22%，PVC开工 率继续增加，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率基本稳定。印度将关于PVC的BIS政策终止， 对于中国出口PVC至印度的担忧有所缓解。印度反倾销税也大概率取消，PVC以价换量，只是中国台 湾台塑12月份报价普遍下跌30-60美元/吨，上周出口签单环比回落。上周社会库存小幅增加，目前 仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-10月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、竣工面积同 比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、新开工、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面 积环比回升，但仍处于近年同期最低水平附近，房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合利润仍为正值，PVC 开工率同比往年偏高。同时新增产能上，40万吨/年的天津渤化已满负荷生产，30万吨/年的甘肃耀 望和30万吨/年的嘉兴嘉化试车后低负荷运行。国家发展改革委会同有关部门及相关行业协会召开会 议，研究制定价格无序竞争成本认定标准等相关工作，给予大宗商品一定提振。但山东恒 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The upstream calcium carbide price in the northwest region has increased by 25 yuan/ton. The PVC supply-side开工率 has decreased slightly to 76.57%, but remains at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream开工率 has continued to rise, exceeding the levels of the past two years but still remaining low. The expected PVC exports from China in the fourth quarter have weakened. The social inventory has increased slightly and remains high, and the inventory pressure is still significant. The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase, and improvement will take time. The comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali is still positive, and the PVC开工率 is higher than in previous years. With new production capacity coming online, and no actual policies implemented in the PVC industry yet, the cost side has strengthened. It is expected that PVC will fluctuate in the near term [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The upstream calcium carbide price in the northwest region has increased by 25 yuan/ton. The PVC supply-side开工率 has decreased by 0.12 percentage points to 76.57%, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream开工率 has continued to rise, exceeding the levels of the past two years but still remaining low. India has postponed the BIS policy for another six months until December 24, 2025. Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China has lowered its November quotation by 30 - 40 US dollars/ton. India announced a new anti-dumping duty on imported PVC on August 14, with an increase of about 50 US dollars/ton for the Chinese mainland. The expected PVC exports from China in the fourth quarter have weakened. However, exports in September were still good, and the export orders have not significantly declined. The social inventory has increased slightly and remains high, and the inventory pressure is still significant. From January to September 2025, the real estate market was still in the adjustment phase, with significant year-on-year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further decreases in the year-on-year growth rates of investment, sales, and construction. The weekly trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities has continued to decline and remains at a near-record low level in recent years. The improvement of the real estate market will take time. The comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali is still positive, and the PVC开工率 is higher than in previous years. New production capacity has come online, and there are no actual policies implemented in the PVC industry yet. The cost side has strengthened, and it is expected that PVC will fluctuate in the near term [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PVC2601 contract increased in position and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4,702 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,749 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 4,708 yuan/ton, below the 20-day moving average, with a decline of 0.36%. The position increased by 14,264 lots to 1,227,305 lots [2]. - Basis: On October 24, the mainstream price of calcium carbide-based PVC in the East China region rose to 4,635 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,708 yuan/ton. The current basis was -73 yuan/ton, strengthening by 17 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a moderately low level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: Companies such as Hangjin Technology and Shandong Xinfeng are undergoing maintenance. The PVC开工率 has decreased by 0.12 percentage points to 76.57%, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. New production capacity includes Wanhua Chemical's 500,000 tons/year production capacity, which has been in full production since August; Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 tons/year production capacity, which is expected to be in stable production by the end of September after trial production in August; Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 tons/year production capacity, which was put into operation in early September and is currently near full production; and Gansu Yaowang and Jiaxing Jiahua's 300,000 tons/year production capacities, which are operating at low loads after trial runs [4]. - Demand side: The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase, with significant year-on-year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further decreases in the year-on-year growth rates of investment, sales, and construction. From January to September 2025, the national real estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9%. From January to September, the commercial housing sales area was 658.35 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%; among them, the residential sales area decreased by 5.6%. The commercial housing sales volume was 630.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.9%, and the residential sales volume decreased by 7.6%. From January to September, the new construction area of housing was 453.99 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 18.9%; among them, the new construction area of residential housing was 332.73 million square meters, a decrease of 18.3%. From January to September, the construction area of housing by real estate development enterprises was 6.4858 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4%. From January to September, the completion area of housing was 311.29 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 15.3%; among them, the completion area of residential housing was 222.28 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 18.3%. Overall, the improvement of the real estate market will take time. As of the week of October 19, after the National Day holiday, the trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities increased by 54.79% week-on-week, but remained at the lowest level in recent years. Attention should be paid to whether real estate favorable policies can boost commercial housing sales [5]. - Inventory: As of the week of October 23, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.13% week-on-week to 1.0352 million tons, a 24.87% increase compared to the same period last year. The social inventory has increased slightly and remains high (Longzhong has increased the social warehousing capacity in East and South China from 21 to 41) [6].

Core Viewpoint - The PVC futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with prices fluctuating and a recent decline of approximately 2.19% observed in the main contract [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 1, the main PVC futures contract opened at 4885.00 CNY/ton, with a high of 4888.00 CNY and a low of 4810.00 CNY [1]. - The overall market performance for PVC is weak, indicating a bearish sentiment among traders [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply remains high despite a slight decrease in production due to maintenance of new facilities, with expectations of further production increases in the future [2]. - Demand from downstream products is declining, particularly in the hard plastic pipe sector, influenced by seasonal factors and weak orders from enterprises [1][2]. - The export market is under pressure due to the rainy season in India, leading to a decrease in orders [1]. Group 3: Price Trends and Forecasts - The PVC spot market is showing a downward trend in price, with a lack of significant trading activity [2]. - Short-term forecasts suggest continued price fluctuations, with resistance noted around 4905 CNY for the September contract [2]. - The overall valuation drivers for PVC remain insufficient, with weak cost support from calcium carbide prices and stable ethylene prices [1].