Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that the Federal Reserve's resumption of Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) after the December 2025 FOMC meeting has sparked optimism for a "QE-style" liquidity easing, but the era of QE may be over until the next economic crisis [1] Group 1: Transition from Balance Sheet Normalization - Since the 2008 global financial crisis, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet has expanded significantly, with total assets reaching $6.6 trillion by November 2025, over seven times the level in early 2008 and 1.7 times the level at the end of the first round of quantitative tightening (QT1) in September 2019 [2] - The resumption of RMP in December 2025 marks the beginning of a "normalization expansion" phase, with an initial monthly purchase of $40 billion, potentially slowing to $20-25 billion after May [2] Group 2: Differences Between RMP and QE - RMP and QE differ fundamentally in terms of quantity, quality, and market implications; RMP operates under a framework of ample reserves and is not aimed at influencing monetary policy stance, while QE is a non-conventional tool aimed at lowering long-term interest rates [3] - The transition from a "shortage of reserves" to an "ample reserves" framework has changed how the Federal Reserve controls interest rates, with the latter allowing for less frequent open market operations [4] Group 3: End of the QE Era - The ability of the Federal Reserve to shrink its balance sheet post-QE depends on reserve demand and the duration of held securities; historically, zero interest rates have been a necessary condition for the implementation of QE or Yield Curve Control (YCC) [5] - The year 2026 is projected to be the final phase of a rate-cutting cycle for Western central banks, indicating that liquidity easing may not be as significant as previously thought [5] Group 4: Market Implications - The impact of RMP on capital markets is seen as indirect and defensive, potentially reducing the likelihood of stock sell-offs due to liquidity shocks, but not fundamentally bullish for the market [6]

"流动性笔记"系列之八 2026 年 01 月 31 日 QE 时代的终结 美联储资产负债表分析框架 2025 年 12 月 FOMC 例会后, 美联储重启准备金管理购买 (RMP)，点燃了"QE 式"流动性宽 松的乐观情绪。但实际上，直到下一次经济危机，QE 时代或已终结。本文基于美联储"充足准备 金" 框架、深度解析其资产负债表的政策意义和市场含义。 一、从缩表到扩表: 美联储资产负债表"正常化"的历程 2008 年全球金融危机（GFC）以来，美联储资产负债表扩张"一发不可收拾"。2008-2026 年, 美联储共实施了四轮扩表（QE）和两轮缩表（量化紧缩，QT），期间还包括一轮再投资和两轮准 备金管理购买（RMP）。截止到 2025 年 11 月 QT2 结束，美联储总资产仍高达 6.6 万亿美元， 是 2008 年初的 7 倍有余, 是 2019 年 9 月 QT1 结束时的 1.7 倍。 2025 年 12 月 FOMC 例会,美联储重启 RMP, 标志着"常态化扩轰"阶段的开始。数量方面, 初期为 400 亿每月，5 月之后或减速至 200-250 亿。中期而言，RMP 扩表的速度或与名义 GDP ...

Group 1 - The article highlights that COMEX silver has reached a historical high, with a weekly increase of 4.7% to $78.8 per ounce, while COMEX gold rose by 2.5% to $4546.2 per ounce [2][30][35] - The S&P 500 index increased by 1.4%, with most developed and emerging market indices also showing gains during the Christmas trading period [2][3][11] - The U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) balance decreased to $801.5 billion, and the net issuance of U.S. Treasury bonds fell, with a rolling net issuance of -$55.26 billion [2][43] Group 2 - The U.S. fiscal deficit for the calendar year 2025 is projected to be $1.77 trillion, down from $1.95 trillion in the same period last year, with total expenditures at $7.79 trillion and total revenues at $4.8 trillion [48][80] - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q3 was reported at 4.3% (annualized), exceeding market expectations of 3.3%, driven primarily by strong consumer spending [61][80] - The article notes that the unemployment claims data indicates stability in the U.S. economy, with initial claims at 214,000 and continuing claims at 1.923 million, both figures reflecting market expectations [64][65] Group 3 - The article discusses the Federal Reserve's recent actions, indicating that a rate cut in January remains likely, despite strong GDP data, as the market's expectations for rate changes have not significantly shifted [57][61] - The article emphasizes that the Federal Reserve's recent expansion of its balance sheet through Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) marks a new phase in liquidity management, distinct from traditional quantitative easing (QE) [76][78] - The article concludes that the current economic conditions do not warrant a return to QE, as the Fed is likely to maintain a focus on interest rate adjustments rather than balance sheet expansion [79]