Group 1 - Gold prices have increased from $2,614 to $4,380 year-to-date, representing a rise of approximately 67%, making it one of the best-performing asset classes this year. The bullish trend in gold is expected to continue into 2026 due to the shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1] - The Federal Reserve has initiated a form of quantitative easing (QE) by announcing a $450 billion monthly purchase of short-term government bonds, with $200 billion aimed at meeting monetary demand and $250 billion for replenishing reserves. This move is seen as "invisible QE" despite the Fed's claims that it is merely a technical adjustment [3] - The liquidity gap in the U.S. is projected to reach $300 billion by 2026, indicating that merely halting the balance sheet reduction is insufficient to meet market liquidity needs. This could lead to inflationary pressures similar to those experienced during the pandemic, which previously triggered a bull market in gold [3] Group 2 - In 2025, the Federal Reserve, under Chairman Powell, executed three rate cuts totaling 75 basis points. However, the situation may change in 2026 with potential new leadership favoring lower interest rates [4] - Candidates for the new Federal Reserve chair, such as Kevin Hassett and Kevin Walsh, advocate for lowering rates below current levels, which could undermine the Fed's independence. This shift may align with President Trump's expansionary fiscal policies [4] - The Fed's dot plot indicates a potential rate cut in 2026, but weak employment and stable inflation may lead to two additional cuts, particularly in the first half of the year, with a lower bound around 3%. If the economy enters a recession, the Fed may tolerate inflation above 3% to support economic growth [4] Group 3 - Technically, gold is forming a bullish continuation pattern on the daily chart, approaching previous highs, but there are signs of overbought conditions. A potential pullback to around $4,230 is possible, while the overall outlook remains bullish with a target of $4,500 [5]

Group 1 - Trump approved the export of Nvidia's H200, which serves a dual purpose: supporting Nvidia's demand and supply ratio of 12 to 1, indicating no bubble [1][4] - The approval of H200 signifies that the U.S. needs the purchasing power of East Asia, which also supports the AI bubble [4] - The second purpose is profit generation, with Trump planning to take a 25% cut for the government [5] Group 2 - The likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve is approximately 89%, but it may still adopt a "hawkish" approach to rate cuts [6] - Powell is expected to express uncertainty about next year's situation and may adjust the dot plot from three to two rate cuts [7] - The new chairman, Hassett, emphasizes that future rate cuts must closely monitor data, attempting to counter market expectations of blindly following Trump [8] Group 3 - A minimum of three to five rate cuts is anticipated next year, but the most critical aspect is the restart of quantitative easing (QE), now referred to as Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) [9] - Regardless of whether the Fed buys long-term or short-term bonds, the capital must flow into the market to generate profits [10] Group 4 - Speculation about further financial cooperation between China and the U.S. by 2026 is emerging, distinguishing between stock and incremental measures [11] - Incremental measures correspond to domestic demand, such as issuing special bonds, which do not involve the dollar [12] - Stock measures can be cooperative, as U.S. money printing can help alleviate issues in sectors like real estate, with H200 representing stock and domestic alternatives representing incremental growth [13]

Core Viewpoint - The selection of the new Federal Reserve Chair will significantly influence the independence of the Fed and its policy direction, impacting market expectations and economic stability [2][4]. Group 1: Candidates and Their Profiles - Waller is viewed as a strong candidate due to his familiarity with the Fed and strong economic forecasting abilities, making him a suitable choice [4]. - Waller is characterized as hawkish and relatively conservative, indicating a preference for tighter monetary policy [6]. - The market perceives Waller's potential appointment as a positive for dollar assets, with reduced expectations for interest rate cuts [15]. Group 2: Market Reactions - If Waller is appointed, the market is likely to interpret this as a sign of Fed independence, which would be bullish for dollar assets and diminish rate cut expectations [15]. - Should Washington be appointed instead, the market reaction would be similar to Waller's, but with slightly less intensity [17]. Group 3: Historical Context - Historical lessons, such as Nixon's pressure on Burns, highlight the importance of maintaining the Fed's independence to avoid adverse economic consequences [19].

Group 1 - The article discusses the concept of deflation in the context of a credit currency era, suggesting that temporary deflationary periods present opportunities for profit [1] - It highlights the dangers of reckless money printing, which can undermine currency credibility and lead to a situation where the currency is not accepted internationally [2][3] - The article references historical instances where the U.S. dollar lost its status, particularly in the 1970s when the South African rand was favored over the dollar due to its gold backing [2][4] Group 2 - The decline in South African gold production due to sanctions did not lead to an increase in gold prices, as the global market recognized the unsustainability of the gold standard [5] - The article argues that the U.S. dollar is not truly backed by oil or gold, and questions the transparency of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [5][6] - It mentions the political dynamics surrounding the Federal Reserve and the influence of former President Trump, suggesting that his actions may undermine the Fed's authority [8][10] Group 3 - The article discusses the implications of rising oil prices on inflation and monetary policy, indicating that political motivations may drive decisions on interest rates [9][10] - It suggests that the introduction of stablecoins in oil transactions could challenge the Federal Reserve's control over currency issuance [12] - The potential for geopolitical tensions, particularly between Iran and Israel, could lead to significant increases in energy prices, impacting global markets [20][21] Group 4 - The article emphasizes the structural deflation issues faced by the U.S. economy, despite being the largest oil importer [24][30] - It argues that rising oil prices could benefit certain stakeholders, including oil producers and the U.S. economy, by stimulating demand [28][29] - The article concludes that Europe will bear the brunt of rising energy prices, exacerbating its economic challenges [31]