港股焦點騰訊控股（00700）近期走勢再度成為市場話題，今日升0.76%，股價報665元。 對於看好騰訊短線突破的投資者，可以考慮輕微價外、引伸波幅相對較低的認購證。國君認購證（19049）提供約10.2倍槓桿，行使價751.2元，其溢價和引 伸波幅在同類產品中均屬最低。另一選擇是瑞銀認購證（18902），槓桿9.1倍，行使價同為751.2元，引伸波幅亦處於相對低位。若傾向看淡後市，市場亦有 認沽證可供選擇。中銀認沽證（20518）和瑞銀認沽證（15152）均提供約8倍槓桿，後者更擁有最低溢價，引伸波幅和槓桿水準都比較理想。 牛熊證方面，對於認為騰訊會在635-700元區間整理的投資者，可以考慮相關產品。看好可留意瑞銀牛證（63073）或滙豐牛證（61968），收回價分別在635 元和636元，槓桿約18倍。看淡則有瑞銀熊證（66241）和摩通熊證（66094），收回價同設於700元水準。 從技術走勢觀察，騰訊目前關鍵支持位處於638元，下一支持參考617元水準。上方阻力方面，678元為初步阻力，突破後有望挑戰692元。值得留意的是，股 價目前企穩於10天線（647元）之上，並且遠高於30天及60天線，反映中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) is experiencing fluctuations in trading volume, leading to mixed short-term performance expectations, but long-term prospects remain positive due to the anticipated listing of new economy companies [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Recent trading data indicates a significant drop in HKEX stock price, returning to the middle of the Bollinger Bands [1] - Short-term technical signals suggest a "buy" recommendation, with resistance levels at HKD 459 and HKD 470, while support levels are at HKD 436 and HKD 428 [1] - The probability of HKEX stock price increasing is assessed at 55%, with a recent volatility of 3.9% over the past five days, indicating potential speculative opportunities [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Multiple technical indicators collectively signal a "buy" with a strength rating of 8; however, several oscillators are in a "neutral" position [1] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 52, also indicating a neutral market sentiment towards HKEX's short-term direction [1] Group 3: Derivative Products - Historical performance of HKEX-related warrants and certificates shows significant leverage effects, with products like the Morgan Stanley bear certificate (66719) rising by 20% and UBS bear certificate (60541) by 24% following a 1.73% drop in HKEX [3] - Current warrants available for HKEX include high-leverage options such as the Societe Generale call warrant (16900) with a leverage of 15.6 times and a strike price of HKD 484.08, suitable for investors seeking high potential returns [5][6] - For bearish positions, UBS put warrant (18808) offers a leverage of 9.6 times with a strike price of HKD 368.48, providing options for investors anticipating further price adjustments [5][6] Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is currently at a crossroads, with HKEX needing to stabilize above the support level of HKD 436 or risk further declines to HKD 427 [7] - Investors are encouraged to consider their trading strategies, whether opting for warrants or bull/bear certificates, based on their market outlook [7]

Core Viewpoint - JD Group's stock price is currently fluctuating around HKD 121.6, showing a decline of 1.38%, with significant market divergence observed [2][5]. Technical Analysis - The stock is trading below key moving averages: MA10 at HKD 126.04, MA30 at HKD 128.3, and MA60 at HKD 130.6, indicating a prevailing "sell" signal [2]. - The technical strength index is low at 14, suggesting dominant downward pressure, while the RSI is at 41, nearing the oversold zone [2]. - Key support levels are identified at HKD 119.4 and HKD 115.2, with resistance at HKD 128 and potential further resistance at HKD 133.4 [5]. Market Sentiment - Recent trading activity shows a significant increase in bearish derivative products, with notable gains in put options as JD's stock price fell [5]. - The trading volume for JD's stock was reported at HKD 2.099 billion, indicating that capital has not significantly exited the market [5]. Derivative Products - Active trading in JD's warrants suggests potential short-term rebounds, with specific warrants offering leverage of 4.7 to 6.1 times [8]. - Investors looking for bearish positions can consider high-leverage put options, which have shown competitive pricing and volatility [8]. Bull and Bear Certificates - For aggressive investors, a bull certificate with a recovery price of HKD 118 offers a high leverage of 14.5 times, while a more conservative option has a recovery price of HKD 115 with 9.9 times leverage [10]. - Bear certificates are also available for those anticipating a rebound followed by a decline, with both options providing around 6.3 times leverage [10].

Core Viewpoint - The analysis of Tencent Holdings (00700) indicates a bearish sentiment in the market, with technical signals suggesting potential price declines and key support levels identified for investors to consider entry points [1][2]. Technical Analysis - As of July 2, Tencent's stock price was reported at 503 HKD, showing a slight decline of 0.1%. The stock is at a critical decision point, with short-term support at 486 HKD and mid-term support at 469 HKD. Resistance levels are identified at 517 HKD and 534 HKD [2]. - The RSI indicator is at 48, indicating a neutral to weak sentiment, while multiple moving averages are entangled, suggesting indecision in the market. The 10-day moving average at 506.8 HKD is acting as short-term pressure [2]. - The MACD and Bollinger Bands are signaling a sell, reinforcing the notion that the market is in a corrective phase [2]. Derivative Products - In the derivatives market, Tencent's stock decline of 2.24% on June 27 led to significant performance in bear certificates, with Morgan Stanley's bear certificate (58426) rising by 26% and UBS's bear certificate (58470) increasing by 24% in the following two trading days, showcasing the leverage effect of these instruments in a downward market [2]. - For call options, Bank of China offers two products: one with a strike price of 563.5 HKD providing a leverage of 15.8 times, suitable for aggressive investors, and another with a slightly lower leverage of 13.8 times but with the lowest premium and implied volatility in the market [4]. - In the put options category, UBS's put option (16669) leads with a leverage of 14.3 times, maintaining a safe margin with a strike price of 443.13 HKD, while Bank of China's option (17569) offers a more conservative hedge with a leverage of 12.2 times [4]. Bull and Bear Certificates - Among bull certificates, UBS's product (69944) offers a high leverage of 19.4 times with a redemption price of 484 HKD, making it a preferred choice for aggressive strategies. Another product (54536) has a slightly lower leverage of 17.7 times but attracts conservative funds due to its lowest premium characteristics [6]. - For bear certificates, Société Générale's (60438) and UBS's (61324) products both provide impressive leverage of 28.8 times, with reasonable redemption prices of 522 HKD and 520 HKD, respectively, suitable for capturing potential technical pullbacks [6]. Market Sentiment - The 60-day moving average at 495 HKD is still on an upward trend, raising questions about whether a stronger rebound may follow the current technical consolidation. Investors are encouraged to consider their strategies, whether to use bull certificates for bottom-fishing or bear certificates for shorting [9].