Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - North American weather restricts the upside of US soybeans, and they are expected to trade in a range due to low valuation; domestic soybean meal remains weak due to pig production capacity control policies and inventory accumulation [2]. - The external soybean market is in a state of low valuation and oversupply, lacking a clear directional driver, while domestic soybean import costs are rising slightly due to a single - supply source and may be difficult to decline without substantial improvement in Sino - US soybean trade [2]. - EPA policy, long - term B50 policy expectations, and limited Southeast Asian supply boost the annual operating center of edible oils, but there are still bearish factors due to the significant year - on - year recovery of Southeast Asian palm oil production [6]. Summary by Directory Soybean/Meal Important Information - US soybeans closed lower on the night of last Friday. North American weather is favorable, restricting the upside, and they are expected to trade in a range. Domestic soybean meal is weak due to pig production capacity control policies and inventory accumulation. Domestic soybean meal spot prices were stable over the weekend, with the East China price at 2840 yuan/ton. Last week, soybean meal sales were average, but提货 remained high, and downstream inventory days decreased slightly to a medium - level in history. MYSTEEL statistics show that 2.2389 million tons of soybeans were crushed last week, and 2.3726 million tons are expected to be crushed this week [2]. - The US soybean growing area is expected to have normal rainfall and high temperatures in the next two weeks, which is generally beneficial for growth. In Brazil, the premium has stabilized and rebounded. The external soybean market is in a state of low valuation and oversupply, lacking a clear directional driver, while domestic soybean import costs are rising slightly due to a single - supply source and may be difficult to decline without substantial improvement in Sino - US soybean trade [2]. - The import cost of external soybeans is affected by low valuation, EPA policy, and the fact that Brazil is the sole supplier from September to January, resulting in volatile trading. However, with the global oversupply of protein raw materials, there is insufficient upward momentum for soybean import costs. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal oversupply situation, and the spot market is expected to start destocking at the end of September [4]. Trading Strategy - The soybean meal market is a mix of bullish and bearish factors. It is recommended to go long at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end, waiting for progress on Sino - US tariffs and new drivers from the supply side. For arbitrage, pay attention to widening the spread of the 09 contract between soybean meal and rapeseed meal when the spread is low [4]. Edible Oils Important Information - High - frequency export data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports in June had different trends: an expected increase of 5.31% - 12% in the first 10 days, a 5.29% - 6.16% decline in the first 15 days, a 3.57% - 7.31% decline in the first 20 days, and a 9.2% - 15.22% decline in the first 25 days. SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 35.28% in the first 10 days of July 2025, 17.06% in the first 15 days, and 6.19% in the first 20 days [6]. - In the second quarter of 2025, Brazil's biodiesel production increased by 5.6% year - on - year to 2.08 million tons, and the production from January to June reached 3.97 million tons (+7.3%). This has stimulated the consumption of soybean oil as a raw material, with its usage in biofuel production increasing by 10% to 1.6 million tons from April to June [6]. - Domestic palm oil fluctuated and declined last Friday, and the net long positions of foreign - funded institutions in the three major edible oils decreased slightly. Overall, EPA policy, long - term B50 policy expectations, and limited Southeast Asian supply boost the annual operating center of edible oils, but there are still bearish factors due to the significant year - on - year recovery of Southeast Asian palm oil production [6]. - Domestic spot basis levels are stable at low levels. The basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou is 09 + 30 (0) yuan/ton, the basis of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu is 09 + 130 (0) yuan/ton, and the basis of rapeseed oil in East China is 09 + 120 (0) yuan/ton [8]. Trading Strategy - Fundamentally, the US biodiesel policy draft exceeds expectations, Southeast Asian palm oil has limited production growth potential, low inventories of Indian vegetable oils create rigid demand, and the expected B50 policy in Indonesia support the price center of edible oils. For palm oil, if demand countries maintain normal imports and production remains at a moderate level from July to September, inventories in producing areas may remain stable, supporting a firm and volatile price. There may be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to the B50 policy in Indonesia. However, the current valuation is relatively high, and the upside is restricted by factors such as the expected annual increase in edible oil production, high palm oil production in producing areas, the undetermined RVO rules, macro - factors, and adjustments in demand from major importing countries. It is recommended to view it with a volatile perspective [9]. Sugar Key Information - Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to fluctuate on Friday. The closing price of the September contract was 5876 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.17% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, Guangxi sugar - making groups quoted 6030 - 6090 yuan/ton, up 0 - 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; Yunnan sugar - making groups quoted 5830 - 5870 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; and processing sugar mills' mainstream quotes were in the range of 6160 - 6210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The basis between Guangxi spot and the main Zhengzhou sugar contract (sr2509) is 154 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week ending July 23, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 76, down from 77 the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 3.3408 million tons, up 246,500 tons from the previous week [11]. Trading Strategy - China is currently in the best window period for sugar imports in the past five years, and the pressure of import supply may increase in the second half of the year. Assuming that the external price does not rebound significantly, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to continue to decline [12]. Cotton Key Information - Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to fluctuate on Friday. The closing price of the September contract was 14,170 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.07% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (CCIndex 3128B) was 15,340 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis between the Xinjiang machine - picked cotton price and the main Zhengzhou cotton contract (CF2509) is 1170 yuan/ton [14]. - As of the week ending July 25, the operating rate of spinning mills was 67.6%, down 1.9 percentage points from the previous week but up 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of weaving mills was 37.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous week and 0.8 percentage points from the same period last year; the weekly commercial inventory of cotton was 2.31 million tons, down 150,000 tons from the previous week but up 90,000 tons from the same period last year [14]. Trading Strategy - Although the Sino - US trade agreement has not been finalized, the price of Zhengzhou cotton has rebounded to the level before the announcement of US equivalent tariffs, partially reflecting the positive expectation. Fundamentally, downstream consumption has been average recently. The market also expects that sliding - scale import quotas may be issued in the third quarter, which is a potential bearish factor for cotton prices [15]. Eggs Spot Information - Egg prices in China weakened over the weekend, with some areas remaining stable. The price of large - sized eggs in Heishan remained at 2.9 yuan/jin, while the price in Guantao dropped 0.18 yuan to 3 yuan/jin. The inventory of laying hens is at a high level, and the market supply is sufficient, although high - quality large - sized eggs are in short supply. After consecutive price increases, terminal sentiment has become more cautious, but consumption is in the traditional peak season. It is expected that demand will be weak at the beginning of this week and then strengthen, and egg prices may rise again after a small decline [17]. Trading Strategy - High temperatures have led to a decline in egg - laying rates, alleviating supply pressure and triggering market stocking sentiment. The spot price bottomed out earlier and rose more than expected, causing short - position holders in the near - month contracts to flee. However, with a high premium, long - position holders still lack confidence. In the short term, the near - month contracts will fluctuate mainly following the spot price, lacking a clear trend. For the 09 and subsequent post - festival contracts, the earlier bottoming of the spot price further reduces the sentiment of culling hens. With limited cost changes and an expected continuous increase in theoretical supply, the upside of the spot price is limited, and the high - price period is expected to be short. Continue to pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds [18]. Pigs Spot Information - Pig prices in China remained stable over the weekend, with some areas showing small fluctuations. The average price in Henan dropped 0.01 yuan to 14.12 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan dropped 0.01 yuan to 13.31 yuan/kg. In the northern market, farmers' enthusiasm for selling increased, and downstream buyers pressured prices, leading to price declines in most areas. In the southern market, farmers mostly maintained stable prices and waited and watched, with overall prices showing little change and remaining stable. It is expected that pig prices will be mostly stable today with some local declines [20]. Trading Strategy - The market is trading on the government's intervention in reducing pig production capacity, which has restructured the original logic of oversupply. The valuations of all contracts on the futures market have increased significantly, especially for the long - term contracts. For the near - term contracts, although the theoretical supply is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, the pre - release of pressure through active weight reduction and the possibility of active weight gain due to the large price difference between fat and standard pigs reduce the possibility of a significant inventory reduction in the early fourth quarter, and the spread between contracts may move towards a positive structure. For the long - term contracts, the long - term government regulation of sow production capacity cannot be disproven for now, and the spread is more likely to be in a reverse structure. With the industry structure in the process of restructuring, the uncertainty of unilateral trading increases. It is recommended to focus more on spread trading opportunities [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is affected by multiple factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships. The overall situation is complex, with both upward and downward pressures. The domestic bean meal market is also multi - faceted, with a combination of low valuation, high short - term supply, and cost support [2][4]. - The palm oil market shows mixed trends in production, exports, and inventory. The overall situation of the global vegetable oil market is also complex, with both positive and negative factors coexisting [6][8]. - The sugar market is expected to face a downward trend in the future due to the increase in import supply [11]. - The cotton market is expected to be volatile in the short term, waiting for new driving factors [14]. - The egg market's price is expected to show a short - term stable and slightly upward trend, with a more complex medium - term situation [18]. - The pig market is expected to have limited downward space in the short term but faces supply and hedging pressures in the medium term [21]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean/Meal - **Market Situation**: U.S. soybeans are under pressure due to good weather and potential trade - war impacts on exports, but are supported by low valuation, good old - crop sales, and biodiesel policies. Domestic bean meal has high mill operation rates, good sales, and a tendency to accumulate inventory. The import cost of soybeans is temporarily stable [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Given the multi - faceted situation of the domestic bean meal market, it is recommended to try long positions at the low end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the high end, waiting for progress on Sino - U.S. tariffs and new supply - side drivers [4]. Vegetable Oils - **Important Information**: Malaysia's palm oil exports in the first 10 days of June are expected to increase, but overall exports, production, and inventory show different trends. The total inventory of the three major domestic vegetable oils is increasing. The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production decreased slightly in June, but exports were lower than expected, and inventory increased slightly. The EPA policy is positive for the vegetable oil market, but there are still negative factors [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The vegetable oil market is expected to be volatile. If demand countries maintain normal imports and palm oil production is at a neutral level from July to September, the origin may maintain stable inventory. There may be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to Indonesia's B50 policy, but the upside is limited by factors such as high - level annual production expectations and weak edible demand in major demand countries [8]. Sugar - **Key Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded on Thursday. The predicted sugar production and cane crushing volume in the second half of June in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased year - on - year due to rainfall [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: As the import profit window is currently at its best in the past five years, the supply of imported sugar is likely to increase in the second half of the year, and the sugar price is expected to continue to decline [11]. Cotton - **Key Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose slightly on Thursday. Trump postponed the implementation of the "reciprocal tariff" to August 1 [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Although the Zhengzhou cotton price has rebounded, the current basis is not conducive to downstream consumption, and the potential increase in import quotas is a negative factor. The short - term cotton price is expected to be volatile, waiting for new driving factors [14]. Eggs - **Spot Information**: The national egg price was mostly stable on the previous day, with a slight increase in the average price of the main production areas. The supply is stable, the downstream digestion speed is slightly faster, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected that the egg price will mostly rise today [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the spot price has limited upward and downward space, and the peak - season contracts are expected to be relatively strong. In the medium term, as the spot price increase is gradually realized, the focus will return to supply and the relatively large premium of the futures price. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations in the short term, and wait for a rebound to short in the medium - term post - festival contracts [18]. Pigs - **Spot Information**: The domestic pig price was half - stable and half - falling on the previous day. The supply in the northern market is relatively abundant, and the price may fall, while the southern market may mostly maintain stable prices. It is expected that the pig price will be stable [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: Since late June, the spot price has rebounded significantly, and the short - term downward space of the futures price is limited. However, in the medium term, attention should be paid to supply postponement and hedging pressure [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The short - term trend of soybeans, soybean meal, and oils is expected to be weak, with soybeans and soybean meal showing a short - term volatile weakness. Sugar prices in the domestic market are likely to decline in the future, and cotton presents a pattern of weak supply and demand. Egg and pig prices are under pressure, with eggs maintaining a strategy of selling on rebounds and pigs being recommended for short - selling during short - term rebounds [2][4][9][12][15][17][20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Trading Strategy - 09 and other far - month soybean meal is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, and an upward breakthrough requires additional stimuli such as biodiesel and production [4]. - Oils are under medium - term downward pressure, and are expected to be weak in the short term [9]. - The price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to decline in the future [12]. - The short - term cotton price will be boosted, and the future focus is on the marginal change of inventory [15]. - Eggs should maintain the strategy of selling on rebounds [17]. - For pigs, short - selling during short - term rebounds is recommended, and wait - and - see or short - term trading is advised before the contradiction deepens [20]. Important Information Soybean/Meal - Overnight, US soybeans fell by more than 2%, and the domestic soybean meal spot price decreased slightly. The estimated soybean arrivals in May, June, and July are 919.75 million tons, 1.1 billion tons, and 1.05 billion tons respectively. The soybean oil mill's开机率 was 54.55% yesterday, with a transaction volume of 73,100 tons [2]. - The US soybean planting progress has reached 48%, and the Brazilian farmers' soybean sales progress is close to 60%. The Brazilian soybean premium quote has declined [2]. Oils - India's vegetable oil imports in April were 891,558 tons, and its inventory dropped to 1.33 million tons [5]. - From May 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 60.17%. From May 1 - 10, the export volume decreased by 9% compared with the same period last month, and is expected to increase by 6.63% in the first 15 days [5]. Sugar - On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell slightly, and the spot price also showed a slight decline. The number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports and the quantity of sugar increased significantly [11]. Cotton - On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated narrowly. The USDA monthly report was bearish for the US but bullish globally. As of May 11, the US cotton planting rate was 28% [14]. Eggs - Yesterday, most egg prices were stable, with a few declining. The supply increased slightly, and the downstream demand weakened. Today's egg prices are expected to be mostly stable, with a few areas at risk of decline [16]. Pigs - Yesterday, domestic pig prices generally declined. Due to weak demand and slow - down in pig sales, pig prices are expected to continue to fall today [19]. Agricultural Product Key Charts - The report provides various charts related to agricultural products, including inventory, import volume, production, and price difference charts for soybeans/meal, oils, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs, with data sources from multiple institutions such as MYSTEEL, USDA, and the Chinese Sugar Industry Association [22][29][33][41][52][63][76][83][95].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of US soybeans and domestic soybean meal is expected to be volatile. US soybeans need additional stimuli such as biodiesel and production to break through upwards. The medium - term of oils has a downward pressure, but the US RVO rule to be released in two weeks may boost the sentiment of the oil sector. Domestic sugar prices may weaken in the future. Cotton shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the focus is on the marginal change of inventory. Eggs are recommended to be sold on rebounds in the medium - term. For pigs, a short - selling strategy is suggested after spot price rebounds [5][10][13][16][18][21] 3. Summary by Directory Soybeans/Meal - **Important Information**: Overnight US soybeans rose due to the increase in US soybean oil. The US House of Representatives passed a bill restricting biodiesel tax credits for non - North American raw materials, still awaiting Senate approval. As of last week, the US soybean planting progress reached 48%, and the Brazilian farmers' soybean sales progress was close to 60%. According to MYSTEEL, the estimated soybean arrivals in May, June, and July are 9.1975 million tons, 11 million tons, and 10.5 million tons respectively. The soybean oil mill operating rate was 53.42% yesterday, with a transaction volume of 91,800 tons [2][3] - **Trading Strategy**: The cost range of far - month soybean meal such as 09 is 2850 - 3000 yuan/ton. Considering the low valuation of US soybeans and soybean meal, there is a certain rebound space. In the short - term, they are expected to be volatile [5] Oils - **Important Information**: In April, India's vegetable oil imports decreased to 891,558 tons, and the inventory dropped to 1.33 million tons. From May 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased significantly, but the export volume from May 1 - 10 decreased by 9% compared to the same period last month. The Malaysian palm oil inventory increased significantly in April, but was supported by rising crude oil and expected US soybean oil policies [6][7] - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium - term, oils have a downward pressure, but in the short - term, they may be volatile or slightly bullish due to the upcoming US RVO rule and low near - month palm oil inventory [10] Sugar - **Important Information**: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded. In the second half of April, in the central and southern regions of Brazil, the sugarcane crushing volume, sugar production ratio, and sugar output all decreased significantly compared to the same period last year [12] - **Trading Strategy**: The supply shortage of raw sugar has been alleviated, and domestic sugar prices may weaken in the future as the import profit window may reopen [13] Cotton - **Important Information**: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures rose. The USDA monthly report showed that the global cotton production was expected to decrease by 710,000 tons, mainly from China and Australia. As of May 11, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 28% [15] - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term cotton price may be boosted by the Sino - US negotiation progress, but the domestic cotton textile industry is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and the focus is on inventory changes [16] Eggs - **Spot Information**: Most of the national egg prices rose yesterday, with the main producing area average price remaining at 3.25 yuan/jin. The supply increased slightly, and the downstream digestion was mostly stable. Today's egg prices may be mostly stable, with a risk of decline in some areas [17] - **Trading Strategy**: After the festival, the inventory reduction was less than expected. In the medium - term, the strategy of selling on rebounds remains unchanged [18] Pigs - **Spot Information**: Yesterday, the domestic pig prices were mainly stable, with some areas slightly decreasing. Today, the prices in the northern and central regions may decline locally, while the southern market may remain stable [20] - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term spot price fluctuates little, and a short - selling strategy is suggested after price rebounds [21]