Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The soybean market is in a state of low valuation and oversupply in the US, with no clear directional driver yet. The domestic soybean import cost is in a state of small fluctuating increase due to a single supply source, and it may be difficult to decline before the Sino - US soybean trade improves substantially [3]. - The global protein raw material supply is in surplus, and the upward momentum of soybean import cost is insufficient. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal oversupply situation, and the spot end may start to destock at the end of September [5]. - The EPA policy, the expected B50 policy in the long - term, and the limited supply of Southeast Asian palm oil have raised the annual operation center of oils and fats. However, as of now, the palm oil production in Southeast Asia has recovered significantly year - on - year, and there are still bearish factors [9]. - The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to decline. With the increase in imported sugar supply and the expected increase in domestic planting area in the next season, the probability of the Zhengzhou sugar price continuing to decline is relatively high [12][13]. - The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to decline. The downstream consumption is average, the de - stocking speed has slowed down, and the short - term trend is bearish [15][16]. - The domestic egg price continued to decline over the weekend. It is expected to stabilize first and then rise this week, but the increase may be limited due to the large inventory [18]. - The domestic pig price declined over the weekend. The market supply is abundant, the downstream demand is weak, and the current market situation continues to decline [21]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean/Meal - **Market Situation**: The US soybean is in a low - valuation and oversupplied state. The domestic soybean import cost is rising slightly due to a single supply source. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal oversupply situation [3][5]. - **Weather**: The rainfall in the US soybean - producing areas is expected to be low in the next two weeks, mainly in the central region, and the temperature is at a neutral level [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to try long positions at the low end of the soybean meal cost range and pay attention to the crushing profit and supply pressure at the high end. For arbitrage, pay attention to widening the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal 09 contracts at low levels [5]. Oils and Fats - **Important Information**: The export of Malaysian palm oil in June showed a downward trend, while the production in July increased year - on - year. The export of Indonesian palm oil from January to June increased by 2.69% year - on - year, and the average export price increased by 22.2% [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The fundamentals support the center of the oils and fats market. The palm oil price may be stable in the short - term and may rise in the fourth quarter due to the expected B50 policy in Indonesia. However, considering the high valuation and other factors, it should be regarded as a volatile market [10]. Sugar - **Key Information**: The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to decline on Friday. The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of July increased by 15.07% year - on - year, and the estimated net sugar production in India in the 2025/26 season will increase by 3.9 million tons [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: With the increase in imported sugar supply and the expected increase in domestic planting area, the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline [13]. Cotton - **Key Information**: The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to decline on Friday. The开机 rate of spinning and weaving factories decreased, and the cotton commercial inventory decreased compared with last week [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Considering the situation of Sino - US economic and trade talks and the fundamentals, the short - term trend of cotton is bearish [16]. Eggs - **Spot Information**: The domestic egg price continued to decline over the weekend. The supply is large, but the demand from traders has increased. It is expected to stabilize first and then rise this week [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply is large, and the near - month short positions can continue to squeeze the premium. In the medium - term, short positions can be established after the price rebounds [19]. Pigs - **Spot Information**: The domestic pig price declined over the weekend. The supply is abundant, the downstream demand is weak, and the current market situation continues to decline [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market is trading on the policy's intervention in capacity reduction. The forward contracts have higher valuations. The monthly spread may show a positive structure for near - term contracts and a reverse structure for far - term contracts. More attention should be paid to the opportunities in monthly spreads [22].

五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：010-60167188 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 【重要资讯】 周四夜盘美豆收盘下跌，北美天气较好限制上方空间，中美贸易谈判也暂未为美豆出口提供利好，但因 为估值较低预计维持区间震荡趋势，豆粕则因中美谈判未报道大豆有关信息获得支撑，市场预期缺乏美 豆买船巴西报价将维持强势。周四豆粕国内豆粕现货稳定，华东报 2870 元/吨，豆粕成交较好，提货仍 然维持高水平，下游库存天数小幅回落处历年中等水平。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国内压榨大豆 223.89 万 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨预计偏正常，覆盖大部分产区，气温凉爽，总体天气有利。巴西方面，升贴水小 幅上涨。总体来看，外盘大豆处于低估值、供大于求状态，暂未出现明确的方向性驱动，但国内大豆进 口成本则处于 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - North American weather restricts the upside of US soybeans, and they are expected to trade in a range due to low valuation; domestic soybean meal remains weak due to pig production capacity control policies and inventory accumulation [2]. - The external soybean market is in a state of low valuation and oversupply, lacking a clear directional driver, while domestic soybean import costs are rising slightly due to a single - supply source and may be difficult to decline without substantial improvement in Sino - US soybean trade [2]. - EPA policy, long - term B50 policy expectations, and limited Southeast Asian supply boost the annual operating center of edible oils, but there are still bearish factors due to the significant year - on - year recovery of Southeast Asian palm oil production [6]. Summary by Directory Soybean/Meal Important Information - US soybeans closed lower on the night of last Friday. North American weather is favorable, restricting the upside, and they are expected to trade in a range. Domestic soybean meal is weak due to pig production capacity control policies and inventory accumulation. Domestic soybean meal spot prices were stable over the weekend, with the East China price at 2840 yuan/ton. Last week, soybean meal sales were average, but提货 remained high, and downstream inventory days decreased slightly to a medium - level in history. MYSTEEL statistics show that 2.2389 million tons of soybeans were crushed last week, and 2.3726 million tons are expected to be crushed this week [2]. - The US soybean growing area is expected to have normal rainfall and high temperatures in the next two weeks, which is generally beneficial for growth. In Brazil, the premium has stabilized and rebounded. The external soybean market is in a state of low valuation and oversupply, lacking a clear directional driver, while domestic soybean import costs are rising slightly due to a single - supply source and may be difficult to decline without substantial improvement in Sino - US soybean trade [2]. - The import cost of external soybeans is affected by low valuation, EPA policy, and the fact that Brazil is the sole supplier from September to January, resulting in volatile trading. However, with the global oversupply of protein raw materials, there is insufficient upward momentum for soybean import costs. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal oversupply situation, and the spot market is expected to start destocking at the end of September [4]. Trading Strategy - The soybean meal market is a mix of bullish and bearish factors. It is recommended to go long at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end, waiting for progress on Sino - US tariffs and new drivers from the supply side. For arbitrage, pay attention to widening the spread of the 09 contract between soybean meal and rapeseed meal when the spread is low [4]. Edible Oils Important Information - High - frequency export data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports in June had different trends: an expected increase of 5.31% - 12% in the first 10 days, a 5.29% - 6.16% decline in the first 15 days, a 3.57% - 7.31% decline in the first 20 days, and a 9.2% - 15.22% decline in the first 25 days. SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 35.28% in the first 10 days of July 2025, 17.06% in the first 15 days, and 6.19% in the first 20 days [6]. - In the second quarter of 2025, Brazil's biodiesel production increased by 5.6% year - on - year to 2.08 million tons, and the production from January to June reached 3.97 million tons (+7.3%). This has stimulated the consumption of soybean oil as a raw material, with its usage in biofuel production increasing by 10% to 1.6 million tons from April to June [6]. - Domestic palm oil fluctuated and declined last Friday, and the net long positions of foreign - funded institutions in the three major edible oils decreased slightly. Overall, EPA policy, long - term B50 policy expectations, and limited Southeast Asian supply boost the annual operating center of edible oils, but there are still bearish factors due to the significant year - on - year recovery of Southeast Asian palm oil production [6]. - Domestic spot basis levels are stable at low levels. The basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou is 09 + 30 (0) yuan/ton, the basis of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu is 09 + 130 (0) yuan/ton, and the basis of rapeseed oil in East China is 09 + 120 (0) yuan/ton [8]. Trading Strategy - Fundamentally, the US biodiesel policy draft exceeds expectations, Southeast Asian palm oil has limited production growth potential, low inventories of Indian vegetable oils create rigid demand, and the expected B50 policy in Indonesia support the price center of edible oils. For palm oil, if demand countries maintain normal imports and production remains at a moderate level from July to September, inventories in producing areas may remain stable, supporting a firm and volatile price. There may be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to the B50 policy in Indonesia. However, the current valuation is relatively high, and the upside is restricted by factors such as the expected annual increase in edible oil production, high palm oil production in producing areas, the undetermined RVO rules, macro - factors, and adjustments in demand from major importing countries. It is recommended to view it with a volatile perspective [9]. Sugar Key Information - Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to fluctuate on Friday. The closing price of the September contract was 5876 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.17% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, Guangxi sugar - making groups quoted 6030 - 6090 yuan/ton, up 0 - 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; Yunnan sugar - making groups quoted 5830 - 5870 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; and processing sugar mills' mainstream quotes were in the range of 6160 - 6210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The basis between Guangxi spot and the main Zhengzhou sugar contract (sr2509) is 154 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week ending July 23, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 76, down from 77 the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 3.3408 million tons, up 246,500 tons from the previous week [11]. Trading Strategy - China is currently in the best window period for sugar imports in the past five years, and the pressure of import supply may increase in the second half of the year. Assuming that the external price does not rebound significantly, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to continue to decline [12]. Cotton Key Information - Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to fluctuate on Friday. The closing price of the September contract was 14,170 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.07% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (CCIndex 3128B) was 15,340 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis between the Xinjiang machine - picked cotton price and the main Zhengzhou cotton contract (CF2509) is 1170 yuan/ton [14]. - As of the week ending July 25, the operating rate of spinning mills was 67.6%, down 1.9 percentage points from the previous week but up 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of weaving mills was 37.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous week and 0.8 percentage points from the same period last year; the weekly commercial inventory of cotton was 2.31 million tons, down 150,000 tons from the previous week but up 90,000 tons from the same period last year [14]. Trading Strategy - Although the Sino - US trade agreement has not been finalized, the price of Zhengzhou cotton has rebounded to the level before the announcement of US equivalent tariffs, partially reflecting the positive expectation. Fundamentally, downstream consumption has been average recently. The market also expects that sliding - scale import quotas may be issued in the third quarter, which is a potential bearish factor for cotton prices [15]. Eggs Spot Information - Egg prices in China weakened over the weekend, with some areas remaining stable. The price of large - sized eggs in Heishan remained at 2.9 yuan/jin, while the price in Guantao dropped 0.18 yuan to 3 yuan/jin. The inventory of laying hens is at a high level, and the market supply is sufficient, although high - quality large - sized eggs are in short supply. After consecutive price increases, terminal sentiment has become more cautious, but consumption is in the traditional peak season. It is expected that demand will be weak at the beginning of this week and then strengthen, and egg prices may rise again after a small decline [17]. Trading Strategy - High temperatures have led to a decline in egg - laying rates, alleviating supply pressure and triggering market stocking sentiment. The spot price bottomed out earlier and rose more than expected, causing short - position holders in the near - month contracts to flee. However, with a high premium, long - position holders still lack confidence. In the short term, the near - month contracts will fluctuate mainly following the spot price, lacking a clear trend. For the 09 and subsequent post - festival contracts, the earlier bottoming of the spot price further reduces the sentiment of culling hens. With limited cost changes and an expected continuous increase in theoretical supply, the upside of the spot price is limited, and the high - price period is expected to be short. Continue to pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds [18]. Pigs Spot Information - Pig prices in China remained stable over the weekend, with some areas showing small fluctuations. The average price in Henan dropped 0.01 yuan to 14.12 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan dropped 0.01 yuan to 13.31 yuan/kg. In the northern market, farmers' enthusiasm for selling increased, and downstream buyers pressured prices, leading to price declines in most areas. In the southern market, farmers mostly maintained stable prices and waited and watched, with overall prices showing little change and remaining stable. It is expected that pig prices will be mostly stable today with some local declines [20]. Trading Strategy - The market is trading on the government's intervention in reducing pig production capacity, which has restructured the original logic of oversupply. The valuations of all contracts on the futures market have increased significantly, especially for the long - term contracts. For the near - term contracts, although the theoretical supply is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, the pre - release of pressure through active weight reduction and the possibility of active weight gain due to the large price difference between fat and standard pigs reduce the possibility of a significant inventory reduction in the early fourth quarter, and the spread between contracts may move towards a positive structure. For the long - term contracts, the long - term government regulation of sow production capacity cannot be disproven for now, and the spread is more likely to be in a reverse structure. With the industry structure in the process of restructuring, the uncertainty of unilateral trading increases. It is recommended to focus more on spread trading opportunities [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is expected to maintain a range - bound trend, while the domestic soybean meal market is facing a situation of mixed long and short factors. The oil market is expected to have an upward trend in the fourth quarter but is currently subject to multiple constraints. The sugar market may continue to decline. The cotton market has potential downside risks. The egg market is in a bottom - building phase with limited short - term rebound space. The pig market has limited downside space in the short term but faces supply and hedging pressure in the medium term [3][4][9][12][15][18][21] Summary by Category Soybean/Materials - **Market Situation**: On Thursday, US soybeans continued to rebound, driven by the rise in US soybean oil and favorable US agricultural trade agreements. However, good North American weather limited the upside. Domestic soybean meal futures followed the rise of US soybeans, with spot prices increasing by 40 yuan/ton. The soybean import cost remained stable, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade relations and new supply - side variables [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The soybean import cost is fluctuating, and the overall supply of soybeans or protein is still in surplus. The domestic soybean meal market has multiple factors at play. It is recommended to try long positions at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end, waiting for progress on Sino - US tariffs and new supply - side drivers [4] Oil - **Important Information**: Malaysian palm oil exports and production data showed mixed trends. Indonesia is studying the possibility of increasing the biodiesel blending ratio to 50%. China and Australia are close to reaching a rapeseed purchase agreement. On Thursday, domestic palm oil continued to rise, and the overall commodity sentiment was positive [6][7] - **Market Situation**: The EPA policy, long - term B50 policy expectations, and limited Southeast Asian supply have raised the annual operating center of oils. However, there are still negative factors as Southeast Asian palm oil production has recovered significantly. Domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [7] - **Trading Strategy**: The US biodiesel policy supports the oil price center. If demand countries maintain normal imports and palm oil production is at a neutral level from July to September, inventory may remain stable, and there may be an upward trend in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy. However, the current high valuation and multiple constraints suggest a volatile outlook [9] Sugar - **Important Information**: On Thursday, Zhengzhou sugar futures showed a strong and volatile trend. The London ICE sugar contract had a certain amount of delivery. Domestic sugar spot prices were mostly stable, with some processing sugar mills lowering their prices [11] - **Trading Strategy**: China is in a good window for sugar imports, and there may be increased import pressure in the second half of the year. The current market situation is contrary to the theoretical price difference trend, and if the external market does not rebound significantly, the sugar price may continue to decline [12] Cotton - **Important Information**: On Thursday, Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to rise. China's textile and clothing exports in June 2025 showed a slight year - on - year decline but a month - on - month increase, and the cumulative exports from January to June increased year - on - year [14] - **Trading Strategy**: Although the Sino - US trade agreement has not been finalized, the cotton price has rebounded. The downstream consumption is average, and the expected issuance of sliding - scale import quotas from July to August is a potential negative factor for cotton prices [15] Egg - **Important Information**: Most egg prices in the country rose, with stable supply, low inventory, and increased purchasing intention from downstream traders [17] - **Trading Strategy**: Due to limited capacity clearance, the seasonal rebound of egg prices has been delayed. The current spot price is in a bottom - building phase, but the short - term rebound space is limited. For the near - term contracts, time is not favorable for long positions, and for the far - term contracts, it is advisable to wait for a rebound to short [18] Pig - **Important Information**: Domestic pig prices generally fell on the previous day, with sufficient supply from farmers and insufficient market digestion [20] - **Trading Strategy**: Since late June, the spot pig price has rebounded, indicating a seasonal reduction in supply. The second - fattening space still exists, which provides some support. In the short term, there may be room for long positions, but in the medium term, supply delay and hedging pressure need to be considered [21]