As usual, let’s start with a recap of my prediction track record:2018: 5 for 52019: 4 for 52020: 4 for 52021: 3 for 5 (with a caveat)2022: 3 for 4 (one incomplete)2023: 1 for 5 (brutal)2024: 1 for 5 (yikes, but my spot bitcoin ETF prediction should count as 2 or 3)2025: 2 out of 5 (though if you add my crypto ETF predictions, it’s 10 out of 15!)It’s been a rough few years for my predictions, which is why I always say: Nobody. Knows. Anything.  Still, predictions are fun and I love covering the ETF space, so ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The improvement of A-share market efficiency provides a solid foundation for the development of passive investment, with the scale of passive equity funds in the domestic public fund market exceeding 50% in 2025 [5]. - The effectiveness of the A-share market is lower than that of Hong Kong and US stocks, and the effectiveness of small-cap and technology stock indices is weaker than that of large-cap stock indices. The effectiveness of the A-share market shows an overall upward trend [5]. - There is a significant negative correlation between the excess return of active funds and index effectiveness. As the difficulty of obtaining Alpha increases, the demand for diversified Beta and Smart Beta on the equity side increases, highlighting the importance of asset allocation [5]. - There is a balance point between the scale ratios of active and passive funds. In the choice of funds, it is recommended to allocate ETFs in the large-cap style market, select active equity funds in the mid-cap style market, and choose quantitative funds for small-cap style allocation [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 A-share Equity Fund Market: Passive Investment Proportion Exceeds 50% - In 2025, the scale of domestic passive equity funds exceeded that of active equity funds for the first time, and this trend continues. The reasons include the difficulty of obtaining sustainable excess returns from active funds, the improvement of A-share market efficiency, and the development of domestic investment advisory services [9]. 3.2 Rise in Passive Investment Proportion Due to Market Efficiency Improvement - As market efficiency improves, it becomes more difficult to obtain Alpha, leading to the rise of Beta investment. Passive investment includes pure passive investment and factor-based passive investment (Smart Beta) [14]. - There is a balance point between active and passive funds, and the scale ratio of passive investment will not increase indefinitely. Ideal asset allocation should be an organic combination based on the market cycle, asset categories, and strategy capacity [15]. 3.3 Market Efficiency and Testing Methods 3.3.1 Origin and Connotation of the Efficient Market Theory - The study of market efficiency can be traced back to 1889, and Eugene Fama formally defined and improved the efficient market theory, dividing market efficiency into three levels: weak, semi-strong, and strong [18][19][20]. 3.3.2 Testing Methods for the Efficient Market Theory - **Weak Form Tests**: By testing whether the price sequence residual is white noise, it can be determined whether the stock price is likely to follow a random walk, which is used to judge market efficiency. The Ljung - Box test is commonly used for white noise testing [21][25][27]. - **Semi - Strong Form Tests**: Economists generally use the event study method to test the reaction speed of stock prices to public information [29]. - **Strong Form Tests**: This tests whether investors can obtain excess returns using insider information. It studies the returns of professional investors or insiders [30][31]. 3.4 Exploration of Market Efficiency in A-share, Hong Kong, and US Stocks - Since 2013, the efficiency of A-share has been slightly lower than that of Hong Kong and US stocks, and the efficiency of small-cap and technology stock indices is weaker than that of large-cap stock indices. After 2018, the efficiency of the A-share market has increased rapidly [34][38][40]. - There is a significant negative correlation between the excess return of active funds and index efficiency. As market efficiency improves, the difficulty of obtaining Alpha in A-shares increases [43]. 3.5 Fund Investment Choices under the Background of Improved Market Efficiency 3.5.1 ETF: Emphasizing Multi-Asset ETFs and Equity Smart Beta - As the demand for diversified Beta increases, the importance of asset allocation becomes prominent. ETFs are becoming increasingly important in the strategic position of asset allocation, and the proportion of ETFs in the holdings of public FOFs continues to rise, with diversified demand [47][50]. - Strategy ETFs (Smart Beta factor ETFs) show relatively independent trends, providing a source of differentiated Beta in the equity market and playing an important role in asset allocation [52]. - Industry ETFs are mostly market - capitalization weighted, with large-cap stocks contributing more to returns. Since it is difficult to obtain excess returns from large-cap stocks, investment is recommended to be based on long - term allocation [55][56]. 3.5.2 Active Equity and Quantitative Investment: Obtaining Alpha Returns from Small and Mid - Cap Stocks - Active equity funds are more exposed to mid - cap stocks. The trading environment of mid - cap stocks is more friendly to actively managed funds, with lower pricing efficiency and lower difficulty in obtaining excess returns compared to large - cap stocks, and relatively sufficient liquidity [61][62]. - Quantitative funds may be a better choice for investing in small - cap stocks. Quantitative strategies can improve the objectivity and winning rate of decision - making, and have advantages in terms of stock coverage and trading execution [69][70][71].

Core Insights - The WisdomTree International High Dividend ETF (DTH) is designed to provide broad exposure to the Broad Developed World ETFs category and was launched on June 16, 2006 [1] Fund Overview - DTH is managed by WisdomTree and has accumulated over $527.29 million in assets, categorizing it as an average-sized ETF in its segment [5] - The fund aims to match the performance of the WisdomTree International High Dividend Index, which is fundamentally weighted and focuses on companies with high dividend yields [6] Cost and Performance - DTH has an annual operating expense ratio of 0.58% and a 12-month trailing dividend yield of 3.78% [7] - Year-to-date, DTH has increased by approximately 0.64% and has risen about 43.42% over the last 12 months, with trading prices ranging from $37.33 to $51.94 in the past 52 weeks [9] Risk and Diversification - The fund has a beta of 0.58 and a standard deviation of 13.50% over the trailing three-year period, indicating it is a medium-risk investment [10] - DTH holds about 584 stocks, effectively diversifying company-specific risk [10] Alternatives - Other ETFs in the same space include iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) and iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF (IEFA), which have significantly larger assets of $71.19 billion and $164.4 billion respectively, with lower expense ratios of 0.32% and 0.07% [12]

Core Insights - The State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF (XES) debuted on June 19, 2006, and provides broad exposure to the Energy ETFs category [1] Fund Overview - XES has accumulated over $253.47 million in assets, making it an average-sized ETF in the Energy sector [5] - The fund is managed by State Street Investment Management and aims to match the performance of the S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services Select Industry Index [5] - The S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services Select Industry Index is a modified equal weight index representing the oil and gas equipment and services sub-industry [6] Cost and Expenses - The annual operating expenses for XES are 0.35%, positioning it as one of the least expensive products in the sector [7] - The fund has a 12-month trailing dividend yield of 1.70% [7] Sector Exposure and Holdings - XES has a 100% allocation in the Energy sector [8] - Liberty Energy Inc (LBRT) constitutes approximately 6.79% of the fund's total assets, with the top 10 holdings accounting for about 49.89% of total assets under management [9] Performance Metrics - Year-to-date, XES has increased by about 4.69%, and it is up approximately 8.74% over the last 12 months as of December 26, 2025 [10] - The fund has traded between $52.84 and $87.75 in the past 52 weeks [10] - XES has a beta of 0.96 and a standard deviation of 34.29% for the trailing three-year period, indicating a higher risk profile [10] Alternatives - XES may not be suitable for investors looking to outperform the Energy ETFs segment, with alternatives such as iShares U.S. Oil Equipment & Services ETF (IEZ) and VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH) available [11][12] - IEZ has $133.58 million in assets and an expense ratio of 0.38%, while OIH has $1.33 billion in assets with an expense ratio of 0.35% [12]

Core Insights - The Xtrackers Russell US Multifactor ETF (DEUS) is designed to provide broad exposure to the Style Box - Large Cap Blend category and was launched on November 24, 2015 [1] Fund Overview - DEUS is sponsored by Deutsche Bank Ag and has accumulated assets exceeding $214.55 million, positioning it as an average-sized ETF in its category [5] - The fund aims to match the performance of the Russell 1000 Comprehensive Factor Index, which is based on five factors: Quality, Value, Momentum, Low Volatility, and Size [5] Cost Structure - The ETF has an annual operating expense ratio of 0.17%, making it one of the more affordable options in the market [6] - Its 12-month trailing dividend yield is reported at 1.58% [6] Holdings and Sector Exposure - Cardinal Health Inc (CAH) constitutes approximately 1.7% of total assets, followed by Amerisourcebergen Corp (ABC) and McKesson Corp (MCK) [7] - The top 10 holdings represent about 8.96% of the total assets under management [8] Performance Metrics - DEUS has experienced a gain of approximately 11.07% year-to-date and a 10.17% increase over the past year as of December 24, 2025 [9] - The ETF has traded between $48.13 and $59.15 in the past 52 weeks [9] - It has a beta of 0.93 and a standard deviation of 13.42% over the trailing three-year period, indicating a medium risk profile [10] Alternatives - Investors may consider alternatives such as iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) and Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO), which track the S&P 500 Index and have significantly larger asset bases of $766.01 billion and $829.11 billion respectively [11] - Both IVV and VOO have a lower expense ratio of 0.03% [11]

Core Insights - The State Street SPDR S&P Software & Services ETF (XSW) is a smart beta ETF launched on September 28, 2011, providing broad exposure to the Technology ETFs category [1] Fund Overview - XSW is managed by State Street Investment Management and has accumulated over $444.12 million in assets, categorizing it as an average-sized ETF within the Technology sector [5] - The fund aims to match the performance of the S&P Software & Services Select Industry Index, which represents the software sub-industry of the S&P Total Stock Market Index [6] Cost Structure - XSW has annual operating expenses of 0.35%, making it one of the least expensive options in its category, with a 12-month trailing dividend yield of 0.06% [7] Sector Exposure and Holdings - The ETF has a significant allocation to the Information Technology sector, representing 97% of its portfolio [8] - Cipher Mining Inc (CIFR) constitutes about 1.41% of the fund's total assets, with the top 10 holdings accounting for approximately 11.45% of XSW's total assets under management [9] Performance Metrics - As of December 24, 2025, XSW has gained roughly 1.22% year-to-date but is down about -1.03% over the past year, trading between $141.65 and $205.24 in the last 52 weeks [11] - The fund has a beta of 1.15 and a standard deviation of 24.81% over the trailing three-year period, indicating a higher risk profile [11] Alternatives - Other ETFs in the technology space include Invesco AI and Next Gen Software ETF (IGPT) with $650.87 million in assets and iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) with $8.26 billion in assets [13] - IGPT has an expense ratio of 0.56%, while IGV has a lower expense ratio of 0.39% [13]

2025年，中国ETF市场迎来跨越式发展，规模与结构实现双重突破。 排排网财富公募产品运营曾方芳指出，政策支持、市场活跃及投资者对多样化工具的需求，共同构成了 市场爆发的核心驱动力。 从市场结构来看股票型ETF仍是绝对主力，占比超六成。与此同时，债券、商品、跨境等其他类型ETF 也实现了爆发式增长，呈现出"多资产、多策略"的均衡发展态势。 具体来看，股票型ETF总规模约3.65万亿元，占ETF市场总规模63.64%；跨境ETF约0.93万亿元，占比 16.16%；债券型ETF约0.72万亿元，占比12.59%；商品型ETF约0.25万亿元，占比4.30%。 在ETF市场整体大扩张的背景下，债券ETF异军突起，成为年内增速最快的品类。其总规模从2024年底 约1800亿元，激增至2025年底的超过7200亿元，规模增长超过3倍。 截至2025年12月15日，ETF总规模已从年初的约3.73万亿元激增至约5.74万亿元，年内规模增长超2万亿 元，增速超过53%。 在实现规模增长的同时，ETF市场内部结构也经历从"宽基独大"到"多点开花、多资产均衡"的生态重 塑，行业竞争从"跑马圈地"转向 "精耕细作"的发展新阶段 ...

Core Insights - The State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Dividend ETF (SPYD) offers broad exposure to the Large Cap Value category and has amassed over $7.39 billion in assets, making it one of the larger ETFs in this segment [1][5]. Fund Overview - SPYD is managed by State Street Investment Management and aims to match the performance of the S&P 500 High Dividend Index, which measures the performance of the top 80 dividend-paying securities based on dividend yield [5]. - The fund has an annual operating expense ratio of 0.07%, positioning it as one of the least expensive options in the market [6]. Performance Metrics - As of December 16, 2025, SPYD has returned approximately 5.18% year-to-date and 1.94% over the past year, with a trading range between $38.81 and $45.16 in the last 52 weeks [10]. - The fund has a beta of 0.78 and a standard deviation of 15.13% over the trailing three-year period, indicating a medium risk profile [10]. Sector Allocation - The fund's largest sector allocation is to Real Estate at 21.2%, followed by Financials and Consumer Staples [7]. - CVS Health Corp (CVS) is the largest individual holding at 1.66% of total assets, with the top 10 holdings comprising about 14.58% of total assets under management [8]. Alternatives - Other ETFs in the same space include Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) and Vanguard Value ETF (VTV), with assets of $71.88 billion and $157.78 billion respectively, and lower expense ratios of 0.06% and 0.04% [11].

The S&P 500 ($SPX) has put up a respectable 17.33% gain in 2025, but the ride hasn’t been perfectly clean. Ongoing tariff headlines and a weaker dollar have muddied the backdrop, raising fresh questions about where the next leg of meaningful returns will actually come from. That’s why the First Trust STOXX European Select Dividend Index Fund (FDD) has become such a timely talking point. It’s a dividend-focused fund that sits right in the lane of Europe’s cash-heavy sectors and pays meaningful income while ...

Core Insights - The iShares Low Carbon Optimized MSCI ACWI ETF (CRBN) offers investors broad exposure to the World ETFs category and debuted on December 8, 2014 [1] - CRBN is managed by Blackrock and has accumulated over $994.85 million in assets, making it one of the larger ETFs in the World ETFs segment [5] - The ETF aims to match the performance of the MSCI ACWI Low Carbon Target Index, which focuses on carbon emissions and potential emissions from fossil fuel reserves [5] Fund Characteristics - CRBN has an annual operating expense ratio of 0.20%, making it one of the least expensive options in its category, with a 12-month trailing dividend yield of 1.71% [6] - The ETF's top holdings include Nvidia Corp (5.3%), Apple Inc, and Microsoft Corp, with the top 10 holdings accounting for approximately 25.95% of total assets [7][8] Performance Metrics - As of December 9, 2025, CRBN has increased by roughly 20.52% year-to-date and approximately 15.86% over the past year [9] - The ETF has traded between $170.20 and $233.46 in the last 52 weeks, with a beta of 0.92 and a standard deviation of 14.05% over the trailing three-year period, indicating a low-risk profile [9][10] Alternatives - Other ETFs in the space include Vanguard ESG U.S. Stock ETF (ESGV) and iShares ESG Aware MSCI USA ETF (ESGU), with assets of $11.82 billion and $15.25 billion respectively, and lower expense ratios [12]