Group 1: Report Information - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton rose on heavy volume boosted by the external market. The latest cotton price index for grade 328 was 15,188 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis of Xinjiang Kashgar lint in 2024/25 was in the range of CF09+1050 - 1200, and most quotes were above CF09+1200. The sales basis of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang machine-picked cotton was mostly above CF09+1450 [7] - The pure cotton yarn market improved slightly as the peak season approached, with fewer low-price resources and a slightly higher trading center. The overall demand for cotton grey cloth did not see a large release, only a slight improvement in some areas compared to July. Factories were actively clearing inventories, and the growth rate of grey cloth decreased. Sampling increased, but most actual orders were not placed [7] - In July, the US CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year, lower than expected, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September and causing the US dollar index to decline. The USDA August supply and demand report showed that the estimated sown area of US cotton in 2025/26 was reduced to 9.28 million acres, a decrease of 8.1% from the June report. The estimated harvested area was 7.36 million acres, and the abandonment rate increased from 14.4% to 20.7%. The domestic new cotton output was expected to increase steadily, bringing phased pressure. The downstream market improved marginally, with an increase in sampling orders for grey cloth and better yarn sales after the cotton price stabilized. Today, boosted by the external market, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton rose with increased positions. Attention should be paid to the performance at the previous high pressure level [8] Group 3: Industry News - The August USDA monthly supply and demand report significantly reduced the sown area of US cotton by 17%, resulting in a 300,000-ton reduction in US cotton output in 2025/26 to 2.88 million tons, a 110,000-ton reduction in exports to 2.61 million tons, and a 220,000-ton reduction in ending stocks to 780,000 tons. The USDA also increased China's cotton output in 2025/26 by 110,000 tons to 6.86 million tons and consumption by 220,000 tons to 8.16 million tons. Global cotton output decreased by 390,000 tons to 25.39 million tons, and consumption decreased by 30,000 tons to 25.69 million tons [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes various data charts such as China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, US dollar to RMB exchange rate, and US dollar to Indian rupee exchange rate [18][19][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed oil, the market shows short - term supply surplus but high long - term uncertainty. The tight old - crop inventory of Canadian rapeseed supports domestic rapeseed oil prices, while factors like the seasonal increase in palm oil production and concerns about U.S. soybean oil bio - fuel demand put pressure on the oil market. In China, the decline in rapeseed imports in Q1 eases supply pressure, but high inventory restricts prices. The price is in a range - bound oscillation [8]. - For rapeseed meal, the South American harvest is being realized, pressuring international soybean prices. The decrease in the new - season U.S. soybean planting area may add weather premium expectations. In China, the supply of soybean meal will shift from tight to loose, and although the direct import pressure of rapeseed meal is decreasing, new imports from India and high short - term inventory suppress prices. The market volatility has increased recently [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary Rapeseed Oil - Strategy: Short - term trading is recommended [7]. - Market Review: This week, rapeseed oil futures closed up in oscillation. The closing price of the main 09 contract was 9355 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan/ton from the previous week [8]. - Outlook: The tight old - crop inventory of Canadian rapeseed supports prices, while other factors like palm oil production and U.S. soybean oil demand affect the market. In China, supply pressure eases but high inventory restricts prices [8]. Rapeseed Meal - Strategy: Short - term trading is recommended [10]. - Market Review: This week, rapeseed meal futures had a narrow - range oscillation. The closing price of the 09 contract was 2551 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous week [11]. - Outlook: South American harvest pressures international soybean prices, and the new - season U.S. soybean situation adds uncertainty. In China, soybean meal supply will change, and rapeseed meal supply and inventory factors affect prices [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position - Rapeseed oil futures rose in oscillation this week, with a total open interest of 308,680 lots, an increase of 32,101 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures had a narrow - range oscillation, with a total open interest of 572,386 lots, an increase of 11,836 lots from the previous week [17]. - The top 20 net long position of rapeseed oil futures increased from +22,509 last week to +35,478 this week. The top 20 net short position of rapeseed meal futures decreased slightly from - 48,968 last week to - 43,358 this week [23]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil were 1,707 lots, and those of rapeseed meal were 29,225 lots [29]. Spot Price and Basis - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,510 yuan/ton, up from last week. The basis between the active contract futures price and the Jiangsu spot price was +155 yuan/ton [35]. - The rapeseed meal price in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,460 yuan/ton, with little change from last week. The basis between the Jiangsu spot price and the active contract futures price was - 91 yuan/ton [41]. Futures Inter - month Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil was +148 yuan/ton, at a medium level in recent years. The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal was +228 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in recent years [47]. Futures - to - Spot Ratio - The ratio of the 09 contract of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal was 3.667, and the average spot price ratio was 3.87 [50]. Spread between Rapeseed Oil and Other Oils/Meals - The 09 contract spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,575 yuan/ton, and the spread widened this week. The 09 contract spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1,469 yuan/ton, and the spread also widened this week [60]. - The 09 contract spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 348 yuan/ton, and the spot spread was 690 yuan/ton [66]. 3.3 Industry Chain Rapeseed - Supply: As of May 2, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 300,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The estimated rapeseed arrivals in April, May, and June 2025 were 240,000, 200,000, and 430,000 tons respectively [72]. - Import and Pressing: As of May 8, the spot pressing profit of imported rapeseed was +244 yuan/ton. As of the 17th week of 2025, the rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills was 112,000 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons from last week, with an operating rate of 27.87% [76][80]. - Import Volume: In March 2025, China's rapeseed import volume was 246,756.20 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 34.46% and a month - on - month decrease of 86,298.74 tons [84]. Rapeseed Oil - Supply: As of the 18th week of 2025, the inventory of domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil was 905,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from last week, a 1.43% increase. In March 2025, the rapeseed oil import volume was 340,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 78.95% and a month - on - month increase of 100,000 tons [90]. - Demand: As of March 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 440,400 tons, and the catering revenue was 423.5 billion yuan. As of the 18th week of 2025, the contract volume of domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil was 141,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from last week, a 4.76% decrease [94][98]. Rapeseed Meal - Supply: As of the 18th week of 2025, the inventory of domestic imported and pressed rapeseed meal was 22,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from last week, a 115% increase. In March 2025, the rapeseed meal import volume was 251,923.30 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.81% and a month - on - month decrease of 36,011.12 tons [102][106]. - Demand: As of March 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 2,777,200 tons [110]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - As of May 9, this week, rapeseed meal had a narrow - range oscillation. The implied volatility of the corresponding option was 24.18%, a decrease of 3.72% from the previous week, at a level comparable to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying [113].