Group 1: Report Information - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton rose on heavy volume boosted by the external market. The latest cotton price index for grade 328 was 15,188 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis of Xinjiang Kashgar lint in 2024/25 was in the range of CF09+1050 - 1200, and most quotes were above CF09+1200. The sales basis of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang machine-picked cotton was mostly above CF09+1450 [7] - The pure cotton yarn market improved slightly as the peak season approached, with fewer low-price resources and a slightly higher trading center. The overall demand for cotton grey cloth did not see a large release, only a slight improvement in some areas compared to July. Factories were actively clearing inventories, and the growth rate of grey cloth decreased. Sampling increased, but most actual orders were not placed [7] - In July, the US CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year, lower than expected, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September and causing the US dollar index to decline. The USDA August supply and demand report showed that the estimated sown area of US cotton in 2025/26 was reduced to 9.28 million acres, a decrease of 8.1% from the June report. The estimated harvested area was 7.36 million acres, and the abandonment rate increased from 14.4% to 20.7%. The domestic new cotton output was expected to increase steadily, bringing phased pressure. The downstream market improved marginally, with an increase in sampling orders for grey cloth and better yarn sales after the cotton price stabilized. Today, boosted by the external market, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton rose with increased positions. Attention should be paid to the performance at the previous high pressure level [8] Group 3: Industry News - The August USDA monthly supply and demand report significantly reduced the sown area of US cotton by 17%, resulting in a 300,000-ton reduction in US cotton output in 2025/26 to 2.88 million tons, a 110,000-ton reduction in exports to 2.61 million tons, and a 220,000-ton reduction in ending stocks to 780,000 tons. The USDA also increased China's cotton output in 2025/26 by 110,000 tons to 6.86 million tons and consumption by 220,000 tons to 8.16 million tons. Global cotton output decreased by 390,000 tons to 25.39 million tons, and consumption decreased by 30,000 tons to 25.69 million tons [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes various data charts such as China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, US dollar to RMB exchange rate, and US dollar to Indian rupee exchange rate [18][19][20]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.09」 菜籽类市场周报 加籽库存偏紧支撑 菜油走势强于豆棕 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 Ø 菜油： Ø 策略建议：短线参与为主。 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 Ø 菜粕： Ø 策略建议：短线参与为主。 4 Ø 行情回顾：本周菜粕期货窄幅震荡，09合约收盘价2551元/吨，较前一周+15元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：南美丰产逐步兑现，对国际豆价持续施压。不过，新季美豆种植面积下滑，或增添后 市天气升水预期。现阶段市场聚焦于中美贸易谈判和即将公布的USDA月度供需报告。国内方面， 节前受大豆通关时效波动影响，部分油厂开机受限，使得豆粕现货供应紧张。不过，随着巴西大 豆集中到港，油厂开机逐步恢复，供应将由紧转松，对远期市场价格形成压制。菜粕自身而言， 菜粕直接进口压力明显下滑，后期供应大概率趋紧。不过，近期新 ...