量化大势研判 202603 3 月核心推荐预期成长风格 glmszqdatemark 执业证书： S0590525110059 邮箱： yeerle@glms.com.cn 相关研究 2026 年 03 月 04 日 [Table_Author] 分析师 叶尔乐 为了解决风格系统化轮动难题，我们开启了自下而上的量化大势研判探究。所谓 风格是资产本身的内在属性，内嵌于其产业生命周期的变化中，存在五种风格阶 段：外延成长、质量成长、质量红利、价值红利、破产价值。全局比较下来的优 势资产其特征属性，即为未来市场的主流风格。可通过 g>ROE>D 的基本优先级 进行考察，分析"有没有（好资产）"和"（好资产）贵不贵"进行优势资产的比 较判断，最后聚焦当下最具有优势的细分板块。 预期增速资产优势差继续回升，实际增速资产优势差变化不大，继续核心推荐预 期成长风格，景气类成长有待财报验证。△gf 继续保持扩张，其主要来自 Top 组 的上升，高预期增速板块依然有表现机会；△g 同样扩张但变化不大，景气类策略 虽缺乏基本面动量优势，看后续财报披露下是否会再次开启上升趋势。 ROE 的优势差回升但幅度走弱，拥挤度较低下，可挑选 ...

Summary of Conference Call for China Jushi (20260227) Industry Overview - The demand for special electronic fabrics has surged, with some production capacity shifting towards AI-related fields, leading to a temporary shortage of supply for the 7,628 series products and driving price increases [2][3] - The PCB industry has seen a rise in copper foil prices, which has improved the downstream acceptance of rising material costs, facilitating the price transmission of electronic fabrics [2][4] - The electronic fabric industry has experienced a downturn since the second half of 2021, with limited capacity expansion over the past two years, resulting in low inventory levels as of Q4 2025 [2][4] Company Insights - The company's electronic fabric business is primarily focused on the 7,628 series, accounting for over 85% of its production [2][5] - A new electronic yarn production line in Huai'an is set to commence operations in March 2026, with a designed capacity of 100,000 tons, aimed at increasing the proportion of thin and ultra-thin fabrics [2][6] - Special electronic fabrics are still in the R&D phase, with no substantial mass production yet, as they are currently undergoing sample testing and certification with downstream clients [2][7] Production and Capacity Plans - The 2026 construction focus includes the Huai'an base, which will feature a 100,000-ton electronic yarn line (to be released in two phases) and an additional 200,000 tons of coarse yarn capacity [2][8] - The company plans to launch a cold repair production line in Tongxiang around mid-2026 and a 200,000-ton line in Chengdu expected to be operational in 2027 [2][8] Pricing Dynamics - The price increase for electronic fabrics is driven by three main factors: adjustments in industry capacity structure, changes in demand structure, and rising copper foil prices in the PCB supply chain [3][4] - The current profit margin for standard electronic fabrics is approximately 1.7 to 1.8 yuan per meter, with thin and ultra-thin fabrics priced about 1 yuan higher than the 7,628 series [3][14] - The price of ordinary electronic fabrics is expected to maintain a favorable trend in the first half of 2026, with a need to monitor supply-demand dynamics post-March [3][16] Inventory and Supply Chain - The overall inventory level of electronic fabrics is currently low, with about half a month of inventory available [2][16] - The company is not expected to adopt a strategy of accumulating inventory to speculate on price increases, as its current inventory level is already substantial [2][28] Market Outlook - The demand for thin and ultra-thin fabrics is expected to grow, particularly in automotive electronics, while the overall market outlook for household appliances and automotive electronics is less optimistic compared to 2025 [3][16] - The company anticipates that the price of ordinary electronic fabrics will remain a highlight in 2026, with potential adjustments based on market conditions [3][16] Special Electronic Fabrics Development - The development of special electronic fabrics is progressing, with multiple product directions being explored, but mass production is not expected in the short term [2][7][11] - The company is currently focused on domestic clients for sample testing, while also engaging with some overseas clients [2][12] Conclusion - The company is strategically positioned to respond to the evolving market dynamics in the electronic fabric industry, with significant investments in capacity expansion and R&D for special electronic fabrics, while maintaining a cautious approach to pricing and inventory management [2][3][4][8]

2026年的A股市场，指数在震荡中缓慢上行，但个股行情却冰火两重天。 很多散户朋友每天追逐涨停板、跟风热门题材，结果往往是高位被套、来回亏损。 然而，就在市场喧嚣的背后，一股"聪明钱"正在悄然行动。 以社保、公募、外资为代表的主力资金，正避开人声鼎沸的热门股，默默建仓一批看似低调、 实则内核强大的公司。 这些公司不是靠故事和概念炒作，它们普遍拥有五大特征：身处国家重点支持的高景气赛道、近三年业绩持续增长、当前估值处于 历史低位、拥有难以替代的技术壁垒、并且获得了中长期机构的持续加仓。 它们就像武侠小说里的"扫地僧"，平时不显山露水，却身怀绝技。 本文将为你 揭开这10只被主力悄悄看中的"隐形冠军"面纱，看看它们究竟凭什么能成为穿越市场周期的底气。 厦门钨业是一家拥有钨、稀土、锂电材料三大主业的资源巨头。 市场通常把它看作传统的周期品公司，忽视了其在新材料领域的成长性。 2025年，公司实 现营业收入464.69亿元，同比增长31.37%；归母净利润23.11亿元，同比增长35.08%。 在钨业务上，它是全球APT产能第一的企业，光伏切割用的钨丝全球 市占率超过80%。 在新能源材料领域，它的子公司厦钨新能是宁 ...

Core Insights - The prices of various commodities, including precious metals, minor metals, storage chips, and electronic fabrics, have significantly increased this year, leading to a surge in related stock prices [1][2][3] - Analysts indicate that macro liquidity easing supports commodity prices, with the metal sector expected to have higher upward elasticity, making price increases a key investment theme for the first quarter [1][5] Price Increases Across Various Commodities - Multiple commodities have seen price hikes this year, driven by strong AI demand for storage chips and electronic fabrics, as well as increases in resource-based products like gold and silver [1][2] - As of February 27, 2023, spot gold has risen nearly 20%, spot silver over 25%, and LME tin contracts have increased by over 40% [2] - Chemical giants like BASF and Wanhua Chemical have announced price increases for their products [2] Stock Performance - The surge in commodity prices has positively impacted related stocks, with the Wind storage chip index up over 27%, the Wind glass fiber index up over 46%, and the Wind minor metals index up over 42% this year [3] - Specific stocks such as Xianglu Tungsten and Zhangyuan Tungsten have seen increases of over 180%, while Zhongtung High-tech has risen over 130% [3] Positive Impact on Company Performance - Price increases are expected to have a positive effect on the performance of related listed companies, with companies like Zinc Industry Co. indicating that rising indium prices will benefit their earnings [4] - Zhangyuan Tungsten has forecasted significant revenue and net profit growth due to tight supply and increased demand for tungsten raw materials [4] Investment Trends - The trend of price increases is seen as a core investment theme, with significant capital inflows into price-sensitive stocks [4][5] - As of February 26, 2023, Zijin Mining has seen a net capital inflow of over 4.6 billion yuan, with several other companies also experiencing substantial net purchases [4] Broader Market Implications - Price increases are becoming a critical trading theme across various sectors, not limited to specific industries, with 25 out of the top 30 concept indices related to price increases [5] - The expansion of price increases from non-ferrous metals to oil, chemicals, construction materials, and technology is anticipated to be a significant market driver this year [5]

受AI需求爆发拉动，电子玻璃纤维（电子布）市场供应趋紧格局愈发凸显，春节前就爆发过，节后继续发力。消息面上，有厂家表示，自去年四季度以 来，其销售价格持续上涨，目前业内普遍执行"一月一调"。 AI带动电子布连续涨价 来源：每日商报 2月25日，A股三大指数收盘集体上涨。春节节后两个交易日，玻璃纤维板块连续上涨，昨天整体指数收涨8.62%，今日延续涨势，多只个股大涨。 A股这个板块也跟着涨 今天，玻璃纤维板块多只个股又大涨，菲利华盘中触及"20cm"涨停，收涨18.99%。长海股份最大涨幅达到14%，南玻A涨停。 | | 玻璃玻纤 | | Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 5224.34 3.38% | | | | 涨幅榜 | 跌幅榜 | 盘口 | 新闻 | | 南 玻 A | | 5.18 | 9.98% | | 000012 | | | | | 再升科技 | | 13.02 | 9.97% | | 603601 | | | | | 长海股份 | | 22.10 | 9.03% | | 300196 | | | | | 国际复材 | | 15.76 | 3.75% | | 3 ...

格隆汇2月25日丨九鼎新材(002201.SZ)在投资者互动平台表示，公司目前未开展电子级玻璃纤维相关业 务。 （原标题：九鼎新材(002201.SZ)：目前未开展电子级玻璃纤维相关业务） ...

证券之星消息，截至2026年2月24日收盘，国际复材(301526)报收于15.19元，上涨19.98%，涨停，换手 率16.73%，成交量234.92万手，成交额34.48亿元。 2月24日的资金流向数据方面，主力资金净流入2.44亿元，占总成交额7.07%，游资资金净流出1.17亿 元，占总成交额3.4%，散户资金净流出1.26亿元，占总成交额3.66%。 近5日资金流向一览见下表： 国际复材融资融券信息显示，融资方面，当日融资买入3.77亿元，融资偿还3.19亿元，融资净买入 5817.82万元，连续3日净买入累计1.22亿元。融券方面，融券卖出10.86万股，融券偿还1.08万股，融券 余量45.06万股，融券余额684.46万元。融资融券余额7.69亿元。 该股主要指标及行业内排名如下： 国际复材2025年三季报显示，前三季度公司主营收入64.13亿元，同比上升19.01%；归母净利润2.73亿 元，同比上升273.53%；扣非净利润2.48亿元，同比上升214.27%；其中2025年第三季度，公司单季度主 营收入22.6亿元，同比上升18.3%；单季度归母净利润4162.61万元，同比上升167. ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a strong opening on the first trading day after the Lunar New Year, with all three major indices rising, indicating positive market sentiment and increased trading activity [1][3]. Market Performance - On February 24, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.87% to 4117.41 points, the Shenzhen Component increased by 1.36% to 14291.57 points, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.99% to 3308.26 points [2][3]. - The total trading volume of A-shares exceeded 2.2 trillion yuan, an increase of over 219.2 billion yuan compared to the last trading day before the Spring Festival [2][3]. Sector Performance - Significant gains were observed in the following sectors: - Cultivated diamonds index surged by 12.05% - Glass fiber index increased by 8.98% - Phosphate chemical index rose by 8.41% - Oil and gas extraction index saw an increase of nearly 8% [3][4][5]. - Conversely, some AI-related sectors experienced declines, with the Wind seedance video model and DeepSeek indices falling by 5.83% and 4.22%, respectively [8]. Investment Sentiment - Market participants are shifting their focus towards sectors with solid performance and earnings support, moving away from high-valuation AI concepts that lack immediate profitability [8][9]. - Analysts suggest that the market will likely see a rotation of policy-driven themes and rapid style switching, particularly as the annual reports and quarterly disclosures approach [9][10]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to be driven by policy catalysts, with a focus on industries aligned with government directives and emerging themes [9][10]. - Investment strategies may center around sectors with "certainty" and "new productive forces," including robotics, semiconductor manufacturing, and cyclical industries like chemicals and metals [10][11].

一般在 A 股春节休市期间，外围走势都偏好，但一开市，就开始砸盘，港股也是如此，今天跌 1.82％ ，A 股整体还好，顶住了压力，但跳空缺口也是较大隐忧。 梳理一下港股春节的表现：首先炒了机器人，如越疆(02432)大涨了近 24％ ，不过，两天就打回了原 形。原因是春晚机器人虽然比上一次进步了很多，但更多的是带表演性质，都是按照固定的程序在走， 而离真正的进入 C 端，还差老远，大脑不解决，始终还无法大规模进入家庭。这需要时间，因此热闹 之后回归理性，砸盘就变成必然。再是大模型的智谱(02513)，其新一代旗舰模型 GLM-5 确实给力，极 大拉小了和 Claude Opus 4.6 之间的距离，还有一个MINIMAX-WP(00100)：MiniMax M2.5 以 2.45 万亿 token 空降榜首。这都是硬实力，在调整一天后今天继续上涨。 2 月 20 日，美国最高法院裁决，美国政府援引《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）所实施的关税措施， 缺乏明确法律授权。宣布终止一系列关税措施。美国政府不可能就这样暂停，最新应对是援引《1974 年贸易法》第 122 条，特朗普 21 日宣布对输美商品征收的 " ...

Group 1 - The glass fiber concept in the A-share market experienced a strong surge, with the overall sector rising by 6.32% and a trading volume of 17.03 billion yuan, driven by multiple factors including supply, demand, and cost dynamics [1] - All 17 stocks in the sector saw gains, with International Composites hitting a 19.98% increase and closing at 15.19 yuan, marking a new historical high [1] - The structural explosion in demand, particularly from the AI sector, has become a core driver for the sector's rise, with AI servers requiring significantly more high-performance electronic cloth compared to regular servers [2] Group 2 - On the supply side, a shortage in the specialty glass fiber cloth market has led manufacturers to adjust their product structures, resulting in a supply gap for traditional electronic cloth [1][2] - The cost of core raw materials such as platinum and talc has risen since early 2025, forcing companies to increase prices to maintain profitability, with electronic cloth prices rising over 10% to reach 10,300–10,700 yuan per ton [2] - Market expectations suggest that due to rising costs and supply constraints, a second wave of price increases among glass fiber manufacturers is anticipated, with a significant supply-demand gap expected to persist throughout 2026 [3]