智通财经APP获悉，天风证券发布研报称，25H1建材行业上市公司总计实现营收2709亿元，同 比-5.9%，Q2单季度同比降幅较Q1基本持平。25H1归母净利润143亿元，同比+23.9%，其中Q2单季度同 比增长30.2%，增幅较Q1扩大。天风证券认为在各项稳楼市政策的推动下，当前前端的地产销售企稳迹 象初显，近期中央再次强调更大力度地推动房地产市场止跌回稳，释放政策发力信号，地产基本面有望 逐步筑底。传统建材端水泥、涂料等品种盈利改善，非传统建材端玻纤业绩表现较优，建议重点关注。 天风证券主要观点如下： 建材行业25H1归母利润大幅改善，水泥、玻纤表现较优 25H1我们跟踪的建材行业上市公司总计实现营收2709亿元，同比-5.9%，Q2单季度同比降幅较Q1基本 持平。25H1归母净利润143亿元，同比+23.9%，其中Q2单季度同比增长30.2%，增幅较Q1扩大。上半年 建材行业收入下滑主要系传统需求仍然偏弱运行，利润增长主要系部分建材品种（如水泥）价格/成本 端改善以及新兴建材品种需求增长。我们认为在各项稳楼市政策的推动下，当前前端的地产销售企稳迹 象初显，近期中央再次强调更大力度地推动房地产市场止跌回 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The petrochemical industry is closely tied to ethylene profitability, with historical cycles lasting approximately 6-8 years, and the next peak expected around 2025 due to pandemic impacts [1][4][17]. - Oil prices are positively correlated with the petrochemical stock index, necessitating attention to supply-demand dynamics and full costs, with Middle Eastern countries requiring higher oil prices for fiscal balance [1][5][7]. - The real estate industry requires a comprehensive analysis of policy, valuation, economy, and profitability, with significant influence from the synchronized monetary cycles of China and the US [1][26]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Oil Price Dynamics**: Oil prices are a critical indicator for the petrochemical industry, with fluctuations directly affecting stock indices. The expected price range is between $45-80 per barrel in the coming years [1][5][14]. - **OPEC Strategies**: OPEC will shift to a market share preservation strategy in 2025 due to increased production from non-OPEC countries and US inflation control measures [1][9][13]. - **Geopolitical Risks**: Geopolitical factors significantly impact oil prices, with recent tensions having a pronounced effect, although risks have somewhat diminished recently [1][12][16]. - **Investment Focus**: Investment in the petrochemical sector should prioritize new materials and fine chemicals, moving away from outdated small-scale operations [1][24]. Additional Important Content - **Capital Expenditure**: High oil prices encourage capital expenditure among companies, while low prices can lead to reduced production and investment [6][10]. - **Ethylene as an Indicator**: Ethylene profitability serves as a key measure of the petrochemical industry's health, with historical data indicating cyclical peaks and troughs [4][17]. - **Real Estate Market Dynamics**: The real estate sector is currently undervalued, with stable cash flows and dividend capabilities, making it an area of interest for investors [1][43]. - **Supply-Side Reforms**: The shift from demand-side to supply-side reforms in real estate aims to improve supply quality, despite potential short-term negative impacts on the economy and employment [1][38][40]. Conclusion The petrochemical and real estate industries are undergoing significant transformations influenced by cyclical patterns, geopolitical factors, and strategic shifts in investment focus. Investors should remain vigilant about these dynamics to identify potential opportunities and risks in the market.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the construction materials industry, indicating a recovery in the consumption segment and a price increase cycle for fiberglass products [1][5][7]. Core Insights - The construction materials sector is showing signs of recovery, with the fundamentals entering a positive phase, particularly in real estate sales and construction starts [1][20][21]. - A price increase cycle for fiberglass products is anticipated, driven by supply-demand dynamics and market conditions [2][6][7]. - The cement industry is entering a peak season with price increases observed in various regions, supported by policy measures aimed at limiting overproduction [4][27][28]. Summary by Sections Construction Materials - The consumption construction materials sector is stabilizing, with expectations of improved revenue performance starting in Q3 2025 due to lower revenue baselines and reduced price competition [1][20][21]. - Companies like Hanhigh Group and Sankeshu are already showing growth, with expectations for Dongfang Yuhong to follow suit [1][15]. Fiberglass - The fiberglass market is experiencing a price increase cycle, with major companies discussing price hikes for various products, including low dielectric fabrics [2][6]. - The supply-demand balance is shifting positively, with larger manufacturers maintaining good inventory control while smaller producers are adjusting prices upward [6][7]. Cement - The cement market is witnessing a slight price increase, with specific regions like Jiangsu and Anhui implementing price hikes [4][27]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in the cement sector due to policy support and overseas expansion opportunities [27][28]. Investment Recommendations - Companies such as China Jushi, Zhongcai Technology, and Feilihua are highlighted for their strong market positions and growth potential in the fiberglass and construction materials sectors [10][12][18]. - Huaxin Cement is noted for its overseas expansion and profitability, particularly from its Nigerian operations, which are expected to contribute significantly to future earnings [31][33].

Core Perspective - The article discusses the sustainable development path of Tai'an, driven by cultural economy, which integrates economic growth with the enhancement of people's livelihoods and the interpretation of civilization [1][8]. Group 1: Cultural and Economic Integration - Tai'an is leveraging its rich cultural heritage, particularly the significance of Mount Tai, to enhance tourism and cultural activities, thereby boosting local economic development [2][3]. - The city is implementing strategies to transform ticket-based tourism into a comprehensive economic model, promoting all-region tourism and integrating various industries [2][3]. Group 2: Tourism and Visitor Engagement - The Tai'an scenic area has adopted smart technology to improve visitor experiences, achieving over 6 million visitors by August 23, with expectations to exceed 8 million for three consecutive years [3]. - The city has a diverse range of tourism offerings, including 83 A-level tourist attractions and various accommodation options, contributing to a total domestic tourism revenue of approximately 52.09 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 9.85% [3]. Group 3: Cultural Industry Development - The ongoing construction of the Tai'an News Publishing Town, focusing on the entire news publishing industry chain, has attracted over 60 enterprises and around 100 registered companies, indicating a thriving cultural industry [4][5]. - Tai'an is committed to enhancing its cultural ecosystem, which is seen as a catalyst for optimizing the business environment and driving industrial upgrades [4][5]. Group 4: Quality of Life and Community Welfare - The city prioritizes the well-being of its residents, with significant investments in public services, maintaining that around 80% of the general public budget is allocated to social welfare [8]. - Initiatives in urban renewal, community services, and volunteer programs are enhancing the quality of life, reflecting the city's commitment to cultural and economic integration for the benefit of its citizens [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the sustainable development path of Tai'an, driven by culture and economy, emphasizing the integration of cultural heritage with economic growth to enhance the quality of life for its citizens [2][9]. Group 1: Cultural and Economic Integration - Tai'an is exploring a sustainable development model termed "New Era Humanistic Economy," which focuses on driving the economy through cultural initiatives and using economic growth to improve people's livelihoods [2][6]. - The city is enhancing its cultural tourism sector, with the 39th Taishan International Mountaineering Festival aimed at promoting Taishan culture and attracting visitors [3][4]. - Tai'an has implemented strategies to transform ticket-based tourism into a comprehensive economic model, promoting all-region tourism and integrating various industries [3][4]. Group 2: Tourism and Visitor Engagement - The Taishan scenic area has adopted smart technology to improve visitor experiences, achieving over 6 million visitors by August 23, with expectations to exceed 8 million for three consecutive years [4]. - The city boasts a diverse range of tourism offerings, including 83 A-level tourist attractions and various cultural projects, contributing to a rich visitor experience [4][5]. Group 3: Cultural Industry Development - The ongoing construction of the Taishan News Publishing Town, focusing on the entire news publishing industry chain, has attracted over 60 enterprises and approximately 100 registered companies [5][6]. - Tai'an recognizes the importance of a strong cultural ecosystem in enhancing its business environment and driving industrial upgrades [5][6]. Group 4: Quality of Life and Community Welfare - The development of humanistic economy aims to improve the quality of life for residents, with significant investments in public services such as education, healthcare, and social welfare [8][9]. - The city has maintained a high proportion of public budget spending on people's livelihoods, ensuring that income growth for residents outpaces overall economic growth [9].

Group 1: Cement Industry - In August, the cement market remained in a seasonal downturn, with high temperatures and rainy weather affecting downstream construction, leading to weak demand and a decrease in operating load of cement mills [1][2] - The average price of cement in August was 271.67 yuan/ton, showing a month-on-month decline [1][2] - A seasonal demand recovery is expected from September to November, combined with the "anti-involution" trend accelerating industry capacity reduction, which may help ease supply-demand imbalances and support price increases [1][2] Group 2: Construction Materials - Retail sales of construction and decoration materials saw a slight decline, with a year-on-year growth of 2.2% from January to July 2025, while July's retail sales decreased by 0.5% year-on-year and 14.45% month-on-month [2] - The ongoing urban renewal initiatives are expected to boost demand for renovation and repair materials, such as pipes, waterproofing, and coatings [2] Group 3: Fiberglass - In August, the pricing of fiberglass roving from small and medium enterprises showed slight weakening, while demand for high-end electronic yarn products remained strong [3] - The supply of traditional electronic yarn products faced pressure, leading to a slight price reduction, but high-end products are expected to see price increases due to demand recovery [3] Group 4: Float Glass - The float glass market continued to experience weak demand, with prices returning to levels seen before previous increases by the end of August [3] - Despite the potential for slight price recovery due to seasonal demand, supply-side pressures remain, limiting significant price increases [3] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Companies with strong brand advantages and product quality in the construction materials sector, such as Beixin Building Materials, Weixing New Materials, and Dongfang Yuhong, are expected to benefit from urban development focusing on quality improvement [4] - In the cement sector, regional leaders like Shangfeng Cement are recommended, with attention to Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement due to expected profit recovery [5] - For fiberglass, companies like China Jushi are recommended, with a focus on Zhongcai Technology for potential performance recovery [5] - In the glass sector, attention is drawn to Qibin Group as the industry supply-demand dynamics improve [5]

Group 1 - The construction materials index increased by 2.45% from September 8 to September 12, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.07 percentage points [1][3] - Over the past three months, the CSI 300 index rose by 15.83%, while the construction materials index increased by 21.65%, indicating a 5.83 percentage point outperformance [1][3] - In the past year, the CSI 300 index has risen by 43.14%, and the construction materials index has increased by 52.13%, showing a 9.00 percentage point outperformance [1][3] Group 2 - Hubei Province has launched a three-year action plan (2025-2027) to promote the green transformation of the construction materials industry, focusing on restructuring the industry [2] - Traditional construction materials will undergo green upgrades, including low-carbon cement and photovoltaic glass [2] - Recommended companies in the consumer building materials sector include Sankeshu, Dongfang Yuhong, Weixing New Materials, and Jianlang Hardware [2] - Beneficiary companies in the cement sector include Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, and Shangfeng Cement [2] - The glass fiber sector is expected to benefit from favorable tariffs for companies with overseas production bases [2] Group 3 - As of September 12, 2025, the average price of P.O42.5 bulk cement was 275.03 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 0.01% [5] - The average price of float glass was 1202.33 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.01% increase [5] - The price of alkali-free 2400tex SMC yarn ranged from 4400 to 5000 CNY/ton, with variations based on region [6] - The price of crude oil was 67.81 USD/barrel, showing a week-on-week increase of 1.65% [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for both the real estate and building materials sectors [2][4]. Core Insights - The "anti-involution" policies in the building materials sector are being implemented, leading to improved industry profitability [2]. - Recent policy adjustments in major cities like Shenzhen are expected to stimulate short-term market activity, although long-term recovery will depend on sales data and corporate performance [2][25]. - The cement industry is showing signs of recovery due to self-regulation and cost optimization, with expectations for further profit increases in the second half of 2025 [2][44]. - The glass and fiberglass sectors are experiencing weak supply-demand balance, but potential improvements in demand could lead to price recovery [2][45]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Sector - As of September 11, 2025, the Shenwan Real Estate Index has increased by 2.86% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.72 percentage points [11]. - The average price of new residential properties in 100 cities rose by 0.20% month-on-month and 2.73% year-on-year, while second-hand housing prices fell by 0.76% month-on-month and 7.34% year-on-year [23][25]. - Major real estate companies are facing continued pressure, with mid-year losses widening compared to the previous year [25]. - Recommended companies include Poly Developments (600048), Binjiang Group (002244), and China Merchants Shekou (001979) for their strong performance in first and second-tier cities [2][25]. Building Materials Sector - The Shenwan Building Materials Index has increased by 0.31% over the past two weeks, ranking 23rd among 31 sectors [26]. - The average price of cement is currently at 314 RMB/ton, with a slight decrease of 1 RMB/ton from the previous week [30]. - The glass industry is in a weak supply-demand balance, with limited price rebound potential in the short term, but a possible recovery as construction activity increases [45]. - Recommended companies in the cement sector include Conch Cement (600585), Taipai Group (002233), and Huaxin Cement (600801) for their solid fundamentals and attractive dividend yields [44][46].

Core Viewpoint - Lightweight materials can achieve product weight reduction, providing both economic and environmental benefits. Currently, mainstream lightweight materials with growth potential include aluminum alloys, magnesium alloys, glass fibers, and carbon fibers [2]. Group 1: Lightweight Materials Overview - Lightweight materials are essential for promoting sustainability across various fields, with applications expanding horizontally [8][10]. - The main categories of lightweight materials include lightweight metals, engineering plastics, and composite materials [16][18]. Group 2: Aluminum Alloys - Aluminum alloys are widely used lightweight materials, with applications in construction, automotive, machinery, and electronics. The transportation sector accounts for over half of the market share [21]. - In 2023, China's total aluminum consumption reached 47.86 million tons, a historical high, increasing by 7.6% from 2022 [28]. - The automotive industry is a key driver of aluminum alloy demand growth, with electric vehicles requiring more aluminum due to added battery weight [21][33]. Group 3: Magnesium Alloys - Magnesium prices have been declining, which may lead to broader applications in the automotive industry. Magnesium alloys are 15%-20% lighter than aluminum alloys and possess superior mechanical properties [2]. Group 4: Glass Fibers - The increasing proportion of high-value wind power and electronic fibers may boost the demand structure upgrade in the glass fiber industry. The growth rates for glass fibers in wind power and electronics are estimated at 18.2% and 7.14%, respectively, both exceeding the industry average [3]. Group 5: Carbon Fibers - Carbon fibers are expected to benefit from demand growth in emerging fields such as wind energy, photovoltaic thermal fields, and hydrogen storage. The demand for carbon fibers in wind energy is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of about 25% from 2021 to 2025 [3].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the overall market conditions in China, focusing on the capital market, economic structure changes, and specific industries such as real estate, energy, and chemicals. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Stability and Bullish Outlook** The domestic economic structure is positively changing, with a decrease in risk-free interest rates driving capital into the market, stabilizing the capital market. The short-term bullish logic remains unchanged, and the mid-term outlook is still positive [1][3][5]. 2. **Risks to the Bull Market** Major risks include regulatory tightening and tensions in US-China relations. However, the current regulatory approach is focused on risk prevention, and no significant risks from US-China relations have been observed, making the overall risk manageable in the short term [4][5]. 3. **Market Adjustment Reasons** Recent market adjustments were primarily due to weak narratives around rising stocks, with profit effects narrowing to specific sectors like AI computing. This extreme concentration in a few stocks necessitates a structural adjustment in trading [6]. 4. **Investment Directions** Suggested investment areas include: - **Anti-involution related industries**: Such as photovoltaic, chemicals, and petrochemicals, which are expected to benefit from policy support and capacity clearing [7]. - **Growth opportunities**: Focus on sectors like AI and innovative pharmaceuticals, which have strong industry trends [7]. - **Hong Kong stock opportunities**: Benefiting from the improvement in domestic fundamentals [7]. 5. **Impact of US Tariff Exemptions on Strategic Metals** The US has exempted certain strategic metals from tariffs, highlighting their importance in technology and defense. China, being a major producer of antimony and molybdenum, is expected to see price increases due to supply-demand imbalances [10][11]. 6. **OPEC+ Production Increase** OPEC+ has agreed to increase production in October 2025, indicating a shift from price maintenance to market share preservation. This is expected to lead to a gradual loosening of global oil supply-demand balance, with Brent crude prices potentially dropping below $60 [12][13]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Real Estate Market Recovery** Recent policies in Shenzhen, such as lifting purchase restrictions, are expected to improve market conditions, similar to previous experiences in Shanghai and Beijing [2][29]. 2. **Chemical Industry Recovery** The chemical industry is showing signs of recovery due to supply-side reforms and seasonal demand increases, particularly during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [14][15]. 3. **Coal Market Dynamics** The coal market is experiencing a price decline after reaching a peak, with expectations of a bottom around 650 RMB. Government policies are aimed at stabilizing prices and reducing overproduction [20][21]. 4. **Steel Industry Challenges** The steel industry is facing self-imposed production cuts and regulatory measures aimed at reducing overproduction. However, demand is expected to improve as the market transitions from off-peak to peak seasons [24][25]. 5. **Future of Energy Sector** The energy sector, particularly coal and storage, is expected to see gradual growth in the coming years, driven by changing supply-demand dynamics and policy support [46][47]. 6. **Aviation and Shipping Industries** The aviation sector is projected to achieve significant profitability in the upcoming peak season, while the shipping industry is expected to benefit from increased demand due to OPEC+ production adjustments [35][38]. 7. **Regulatory Environment for Express Delivery** Recent price increases in the express delivery sector are expected to alleviate competitive pressures, with a focus on maintaining profitability as the e-commerce peak season approaches [39]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into market trends, risks, and investment opportunities across various sectors.