周期论剑 -三季报展望 20251012 摘要 国内金融条件趋于稳定，财政货币政策宽松，决策层稳定资本市场，有 助于凝聚共识、提振预期、推动经济转型并引入海外资本。 科技仍是投资主线，金融板块或成黑马。重点关注 AI 产业创新及半导体 设备、调整后的金融板块以及反内卷背景下的有色金属、化工、钢铁及 新能源等行业。 2025 年国庆中秋假期航空客运量显著增长，票价上升超预期，预计三 季度航空业盈利有望超 2019 年水平，关注公商务需求恢复情况。 LNG 航运市场四季度旺季预期乐观，受益于 OPEC 增产及南美、西非增 产，预计 2025 年四季度游运业绩将重新展现盈利弹性。 近期油价回落受地缘政治、关税及 OPEC+增产等因素影响，短期内仍 面临压力，未来走势取决于产油国态度、地缘政治演变及关税进展。 煤炭市场供需双向改善，供给收缩叠加需求超预期，预计 2026 年下半 年煤价中枢将逐步上移，煤炭板块关注度显著提升。 建筑行业四季度通常表现较好，关注稳增长政策及美国加息对矿产资源 重估的影响，推荐中国中冶、中国中铁等公司。 Q&A 近期市场对中美贸易争端的担忧再次加剧，您认为这次与今年 4 月份的情况有 何不 ...

2025 年 10 月 12 日 行业研究 MOFs：诺奖加持，产业化加速前景可期 ——基础化工行业周报（20251006-20251010） 要点 2025 年诺贝尔化学奖授予在金属有机框架材料领域有杰出贡献的三位科学 家。2025 年 10 月 8 日，瑞典皇家科学院宣布将本年度诺贝尔化学奖授予在 金属有机框架材料（Metal-Organic Frameworks, MOFs）领域做出开创性 贡献的三位科学家：北川进（SusumuKitagawa，日本）、理查德·罗布森 （RichardRobson，英国）、奥马尔·M·亚吉（Omar M.Yaghi，约旦裔美 国籍。这三位科学家通过其奠基性的工作，成功设计并合成了这种由金属离 子与有机分子自组装而成的高度有序的多孔晶体材料，为材料科学开辟了一 个全新的分支，并为解决全球性的能源、环境和健康问题提供了前所未有的 工具。 MOFs 性能优异，产业化想象空间巨大。MOFs 是一种由金属中心（离子或 簇）和有机配体（也称链接体）通过配位键连接，自组装形成的具有周期性 网络结构的晶态多孔材料。金属节点通常是过渡金属离子，如铜、锌、铁、 钴等，它们可以形成单个离子节 ...

与此同时，随着"金九银十"传统消费旺季的临近，钛白粉终端需求逐步恢复，社会库存消化速度有望提 升，对价格形成一定支撑。海外市场补库需求增加，也带动了钛白粉的出口。 孙哲宇认为，钛白粉价格此前持续低迷，企业长期处于亏损或微利状态，盼涨情绪较强。龙头企业龙佰 集团发布涨价函起到了引领作用，向市场传递了积极信号，增强了市场对价格上涨的预期，其他企业也 纷纷跟进，形成了集体宣涨的局面。 颜钛钛行业分析师杨逊表示，目前这一波涨价潮，巩固了市场利好信心，对刺激客户需求有一定的促进 作用。 钛白粉市场后市如何发展?杨逊认为，钛白粉价格市场的整体趋势依然向上，这个旺季虽然不及预期， 但仍有一定成色。短期看，尽管原料成本处于博弈状态，但十月的市场价格或大概率保持坚挺运行，具 体新单价格还是看单、看量、看付款形式的一单一议。 涂多多产业大数据部钛分析师齐宇指出，印度出口关税消息有待最终确认，市场仍有利好支撑，后期钛 白粉出口量或将有所增长。钛白粉企业仍有部分在手订单，成本支撑下预计价格还会有小幅上涨预期。 龙佰集团（002601）股份有限公司9月30日发布涨价函，从10月10日起，所有钛白粉在国内市场上调300 元人民币/吨，国 ...

每经AI快讯，惠云钛业（SZ 300891，收盘价：9.68元）10月10日晚间发布公告称，广东惠云钛业股份 有限公司于近日取得国家知识产权局颁发的发明专利证书1项。专利名称为"一种改性钛白粉及其制备方 法和应用"。 2024年1至12月份，惠云钛业的营业收入构成为：工业占比99.85%，其他业务占比0.15%。 截至发稿，惠云钛业市值为39亿元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——天水麻辣烫、淄博烧烤、荣昌卤鹅⋯⋯"泼天流量"退去后，这些城市怎么 样了？ （记者 曾健辉） ...

新华财经北京10月10日电四大证券报内容精华摘要如下： 中国证券报 ·金价一路走高黄金股相关ETF强势霸榜 10月9日，A股三大指数集体收涨，沪指突破3900点，创下逾十年的新高。贵金属板块爆发，受此影 响，多只黄金股相关ETF大涨，两只涨幅超10%，另有多只有色相关ETF涨幅超8%。10月9日ETF合计成 交额5811.19亿元，与9月30日相比，成交额增加近300亿元。4只ETF成交额突破200亿元。股票型ETF 中，中证A500相关ETF成近期吸金主力，电池、黄金相关ETF也获较多资金净流入。 ·科技与周期共舞 A股震荡上行趋势未改 对于10月后续行情，机构观点普遍乐观，认为A股将会保持震荡上行走势。其中，即将到来的三季报成 为关键看点，建议关注三季度业绩有望改善或持续高增长的领域。 ·"人造太阳"照进现实核聚变商业化稳步推进 10月9日，核聚变相关板块大幅上涨。截至当日收盘，万得核聚变概念指数上涨7.82%，万得超导概念 指数上涨6.17%。西部超导、哈焊华通、中洲特材、中国核建、海陆重工、合锻智能、中核科技、东方 电气、永鼎股份、上海电气等个股收于涨停。记者采访获悉，目前已有多家企业正在推动核聚变商 ...

Wind数据显示，10月9日，华南市场钛白粉报价1.33万元/吨，与9月末报价持平，仍处于价格周期低 谷。近年来，钛白粉价格震荡下行，从2021年6月份的2.04万元/吨降至目前价位，导致钛白粉行业企业 经营业绩承压，行业进入深度调整期。"尤其行业里的中小企业，在规模、成本、技术方面竞争力较 弱，面临不小经营压力。"一名钛白粉行业从业者的感慨，道出了钛白粉企业当前的困境。 多重挑战下，行业内部分企业积极突围，产业链并购整合提速。受访业内人士认为，并购整合有助于推 动钛白粉产业进一步向规模化、集约化发展，促进技术升级，提升产品质量与全球竞争力。 下游需求迎来边际好转 近年来，钛白粉行业企业业绩承压，以金浦钛业股份有限公司为例，2022年至2024年，该公司归属于上 市公司股东的净利润已连续3年为负，累计亏损超5亿元。2025年上半年，该公司仍未扭亏，归属于上市 公司股东的净利润为-1.86亿元。 对于亏损，该公司相关负责人在近期举行的业绩说明会上表示："受到包括成本高企、需求疲软、低价 竞争激烈等因素影响，钛白粉行业正面临内忧外困。" "近年来，由于供需失衡，钛白粉价格持续探底。"陕西巨丰投资资讯有限责任公司高 ...

"十四五"期间，从区域内上市公司数量稳步攀升，到牧原股份、双汇发展等龙头企业依托资本市场巩固行业地位，再到仕佳光子、新强联等科技型企业借助上市融 资突破技术瓶颈，河南资本市场正从"量的积累"向"质的提升"跨越，不仅为粮食生产核心区、先进制造业强省建设注入了金融动能，更让"豫企军团"在全国资本市 场的版图中占据一席之地。 面向"十五五"，以"智能化、绿色化、高端化"为方向，河南"7+28+N"产业链集群将迎来更大发展空间。围绕"两高四着力"精神内核，河南也将着力服务科技创新 和产业创新融合，提升上市公司质量和产业投融资，助力全省经济高质量发展。 作为资本市场资源配置的基础性功能，场内资金活水正源源不断注入实体企业，助力豫企完成技术升级，推动战略产业提质焕新。 从2020年末的87家，到如今的112家，"十四五"期间，河南地区A股上市公司数量实现快速扩容，仅北交所上市企业就有13家，总数位列中部六省首位。 而2021年至今，河南企业连续4年交易所市场债券融资超过1000亿元，存量规模增至4958亿元，较2021年翻番；债券发行加权平均成本压降至目前的2.66%，较 期间最高点下降212个BP。绿色、科创等创新品种 ...

Group 1 - The capital market serves as a barometer for the national economy, reflecting the vitality of the real economy and the trends in industrial structure adjustment [1] - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the capital market in Henan has played a significant role in economic development, with an increase in the number of listed companies and the emergence of leading enterprises like Muyuan Foods and Shuanghui Development [2][3] - Henan's capital market is transitioning from "quantitative accumulation" to "qualitative improvement," injecting financial momentum into key industries such as grain production and advanced manufacturing [2] Group 2 - The number of A-share listed companies in Henan increased from 87 at the end of 2020 to 112, with 13 companies listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange, leading among the six central provinces [3] - Since 2021, Henan enterprises have consistently raised over 100 billion yuan in bond financing annually, with the total bond issuance reaching 495.8 billion yuan, doubling since 2021 [5] - The average cost of bond issuance has decreased to 2.66%, down 212 basis points from its peak [5] Group 3 - Leading companies like Muyuan Foods have achieved significant growth, with revenue increasing from 56.3 billion yuan in 2020 to 137.9 billion yuan in 2024 [5][6] - Muyuan Foods has invested heavily in R&D for smart farming and disease prevention, supported by capital market financing [6] - The company has filed 2,276 patents, with 138 new patents granted in 2024 alone [6] Group 4 - By August 2025, the number of A-share listed companies in Henan with a market capitalization exceeding 10 billion yuan reached 35, doubling from the previous year [8] - Nearly 80% of listed companies in Henan reported profits, with total revenue and net profit reaching record highs, and 13 companies exceeding 10 billion yuan in revenue [8][9] - R&D investment among listed companies in Henan increased, with an overall R&D intensity of 5.57% in 2024, up 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [9] Group 5 - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has listed 27 futures and 20 options products, capturing 35.03% of the national futures market volume [11] - The exchange has attracted 2.2 trillion yuan in settlement funds and has introduced foreign investors to several products [11] - The use of futures for risk management has been demonstrated by local companies successfully hedging against price fluctuations [12] Group 6 - Henan has actively explored the issuance of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) to support the development of the real economy, with successful issuances covering various sectors [13] - The province has implemented policies to support mergers and acquisitions among listed companies, aiming to enhance traditional industries and foster emerging sectors [14] - The government plans to deepen cooperation with major stock exchanges to facilitate more companies in raising funds through listings [14][15]

河南郑州郑东新区CBD郑州国际会展中心千玺广场"大玉米"。 图虫创意/供图 证券时报记者 赵黎昀 资本市场作为国民经济的晴雨表，既是观察实体经济运行活力和产业结构调整动向的重要窗口，也是通 过资源配置为行业企业提质升级赋能的源头活水。站在"十四五"末尾，回望过去五年中部大省河南的经 济发展脉络，资本市场的"助推器"作用愈发凸显。 "十四五"期间，从区域内上市公司数量稳步攀升，到牧原股份、双汇发展等龙头企业依托资本市场巩固 行业地位，再到仕佳光子、新强联等科技型企业借助上市融资突破技术瓶颈，河南资本市场正从"量的 积累"向"质的提升"跨越，不仅为粮食生产核心区、先进制造业强省建设注入了金融动能，更让"豫企军 团"在全国资本市场的版图中占据一席之地。 面向"十五五"，以"智能化、绿色化、高端化"为方向，河南"7+28+N"产业链集群将迎来更大发展空 间。围绕"两高四着力"精神内核，河南也将着力服务科技创新和产业创新融合，提升上市公司质量和产 业投融资，助力全省经济高质量发展。 资本赋能： 产业智能化加速升级 作为资本市场资源配置的基础性功能，场内资金活水正源源不断注入实体企业，助力豫企完成技术升 级，推动战略产业 ...

Core Insights - The capital market in Henan province has played a crucial role in enhancing the quality and efficiency of local enterprises during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, transitioning from quantity accumulation to quality improvement [1][2] - The number of A-share listed companies in Henan has increased from 87 at the end of 2020 to 112, leading the central region of China [2] - Major companies like Muyuan Foods and Shuanghui Development have leveraged capital markets to solidify their industry positions and drive technological advancements [2][3] Capital Empowerment - The number of A-share listed companies in Henan has grown rapidly, with 13 companies listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange, making it the leader among six central provinces [2] - From 2021 onwards, Henan enterprises have consistently raised over 100 billion yuan through bond financing, with the total bond stock reaching 495.8 billion yuan, doubling since 2021 [2] - The average cost of bond issuance has decreased to 2.66%, down 212 basis points from its peak [2] - Since 2022, 18 listed companies in Henan have engaged in mergers and acquisitions, with 12 occurring in 2025 alone, involving over 30 billion yuan [2] Industry Development - Muyuan Foods has seen its revenue grow from 56.3 billion yuan in 2020 to 137.9 billion yuan in 2024, driven by significant investments in technology and innovation [3] - The company has filed 2,276 patents, with 138 granted in 2024 alone, reflecting its commitment to R&D [3] - The capital market has supported the development of high-end materials companies like DuPont and Longbai Group, which have invested over 10 billion yuan in technology upgrades [4][5] Performance and Returns - By August 2025, the number of A-share listed companies in Henan with a market value exceeding 10 billion yuan reached 35, doubling from the previous year [5] - Nearly 80% of listed companies reported profits in the first half of the year, with total revenue and net profit hitting record highs [5] - R&D investment among listed companies in Henan has increased, with an overall R&D intensity of 5.57% in 2024, up 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [5] Financial Tools and Services - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has become a significant player in the futures market, with 27 futures and 20 options listed, capturing 35.03% of the national market share [7] - The exchange has attracted 107 futures institutions and 2.2 trillion yuan in settlement funds [7] - The province has also implemented various financial initiatives, including private equity funds and REITs, to support the development of local enterprises [9][10] Policy Support - The Henan provincial government has introduced policies to support mergers and acquisitions, aiming to enhance traditional industries and foster emerging sectors [10] - The government plans to deepen cooperation with major stock exchanges to facilitate more companies in listing and financing [10]