Core Insights - The article highlights the top-performing leveraged and inverse ETFs for the week, showcasing significant returns driven by various market factors, including geopolitical tensions and sector-specific booms [1] Group 1: Top Performing Leveraged ETFs - ProShares Ultra Silver (AGQ) led with a return of 19.04%, attributed to rising silver prices amid trade volatility and geopolitical risks, including a proposed 15% global tariff [1] - Direxion MSCI Daily South Korea Bull 3X Shares (KORU) achieved a return of 17.22%, benefiting from a decoupling from declining US markets and a surge in AI-driven semiconductor and defense stocks [1] - GraniteShares 2x Long AMZN Daily ETF (AMZZ) returned 11.54%, as Amazon's stock gained due to reassessment of its AI and cloud profitability [1] - Direxion Daily AMZN Bull 2X Shares (AMZU) also performed well, with a return of 11.41%, reflecting similar trends in Amazon's stock [1] - Defiance Daily Target 2X Long SMCI ETF (SMCX) returned 11.19%, driven by strong quarterly results and high demand for AI servers from Super Micro Computer [1] Group 2: Other Notable ETFs - ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (UCO) saw a return of 10.57%, influenced by rising oil prices due to U.S.-Iran tensions and the proposed global tariff [1] - MAX Auto Industry -3x Inverse Leveraged ETN (CARD) returned 9.50%, reflecting volatility in the U.S. auto industry amid tariff pressures and high interest rates [1] - KraneShares 2x Long PDD Daily ETF (KPDD) achieved a return of 9.26%, driven by a Supreme Court ruling that impacted tariffs and institutional buying [1] - GraniteShares 2x Long COIN Daily ETF (CONL) returned 8.35%, supported by strong performance data from Coinbase and shareholder-friendly initiatives [1] - Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 2x Shares (JNUG) returned 8.33%, as gold prices surged due to fears of a prolonged trade war following legal setbacks for the White House's trade agenda [1]

Coming out of the last two years, the focus seemed to be on the unemployment rate, on the labor market, and cutting rates to get ahead of a problem with the labor market. But listening to you this morning, it sounds like you're more concerned about inflation, that inflation may have become the primary risk. Yeah, I would say that in my head in 23 and 24, since I've been on the Fed, inflation's been and that has never gone away as as a central focus.When the labor market is deteriorating, it comes back in a ...

Market Overview - Markets rebounded after a challenging previous week, with the Dow increasing by 515 points (+1.05%), S&P 500 up by 37 points (+0.54%), Nasdaq rising by 130 points (+0.56%), and Russell 2000 gaining 24 points (+0.95%) [1] Economic Indicators - Strong earnings from Disney and other companies were noted, despite Disney's stock dropping by 7% [2] - S&P Manufacturing PMI rose by 60 basis points to 52.4%, while ISM Manufacturing increased by 4.7% to 52.6%, both indicating growth as they are above the 50-level [2] Company Earnings Reports - Palantir reported Q4 earnings with earnings per share of 25 cents, exceeding expectations by 2 cents, and revenues of $1.4 billion, surpassing the $1.35 billion forecast. U.S. revenues grew by 93% year-over-year, exceeding $1 billion for the first time, with government revenues at $570 million for the quarter. Shares rose by 5% in after-hours trading [3] - NXP Semiconductor reported Q4 earnings of $3.35 per share, beating estimates by 5 cents, with revenues of $3.34 billion, slightly above the $3.30 billion consensus. Auto industry performance met expectations, with overall margins at 57%. Shares fell by 4.5% following the report, and next-quarter revenue guidance was only partially raised [4] Upcoming Economic Data - The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for December is expected to show a relatively low 7.1 million job openings. S&P Services PMI and ISM Services for January are also anticipated to exceed the 50-level [5] - Earnings reports from PayPal, Merck, PepsiCo, and Shopify are scheduled for Tuesday, with AMD's earnings to be released after the market close [6]

Economic Performance - Food prices have risen faster during Trump's first year back in office compared to Biden's last year, contradicting his promise to lower grocery costs [1][3] - Household energy prices increased by 7.3% under Trump, more than double the rate during Biden's last year [3] - A significant portion of Americans, 49%, believe the economy is worse than a year ago, with 54% disapproving of Trump's economic management [5] Policy Proposals - Trump's proposals include capping credit card interest rates, which may limit access to credit for higher-risk borrowers [8] - Plans to cut housing costs, such as barring investors from buying single-family homes, could negatively impact residential construction and increase housing costs over time [9] - Some proposals, like launching a criminal investigation into the Federal Reserve chair, appear disconnected from economic realities [10] Political Strategy - Trump's approach includes a mix of incoherent policy proposals aimed at signaling solidarity with distressed voters, straying from traditional Republican free-market principles [12] - Historical context suggests that tapping into voter grievances can be effective, as seen in Trump's previous campaign promises that resonated with working-class voters [15] - The current political landscape reflects a shift from prioritizing economic efficiency to addressing the concerns of communities adversely affected by globalization [14]

Group 1 - B. Riley analyst Craig Ellis raised the price target on Rogers Corporation (ROG) to $127 from $105 while maintaining a Neutral rating on the shares [1] - Consensus estimates for 4Q25 and 1Q26 may have a fractional upside bias if Auto and Industrial orders begin to increase [1] - Quarterly results are expected to align with consensus estimates as new management implements reacceleration initiatives [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Economic Outlook for China**: The economy is projected to experience lukewarm growth with real GDP growth estimates of 4.5% for 2026, down from 4.9% in 2025, and expected to rise slightly to 4.6% in 2027 [3][3][3] - **Consumption Trends**: Consumption growth is forecasted to slow to 4.4% in 2026 from 4.8% in 2025, indicating a potential decline in consumer spending as subsidy effects diminish [3][3][3] - **Investment Dynamics**: Gross fixed capital formation is expected to increase to 3.4% in 2026, suggesting a recovery in investment activities [3][3][3] Key Economic Indicators - **Current Account Surplus**: Projected to rise from 2.9% of GDP in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026, indicating a strengthening of external financial position [3][3][3] - **Trade Surplus**: Expected to remain stable at 4.7% of GDP in 2025 and 2026, reflecting consistent export performance [3][3][3] - **Inflation and Monetary Policy**: CPI is anticipated to increase slightly to 0.4% in 2026, with the 10-year government bond yield remaining stable at 1.70% [3][3][3] Sector Performance - **Property Market**: Property sales have weakened, contributing to a slowdown in retail sales as the effects of subsidies wear off [4][4][4] - **Innovation and R&D**: China's R&D expenditure is catching up to the US in PPP terms, highlighting the growing importance of innovation in the economy [19][19][19] - **Sector Valuation**: Valuations across various sectors remain undemanding, with MSCI China forward P/E ratios indicating potential for growth [33][33][33] Investment Opportunities - **Institutional Inflows**: Continued inflows from domestic institutional investors, including insurance and mutual funds, are expected to support equity markets [41][41][41] - **Positive Catalysts**: Anticipated positive catalysts in the first half of 2026, including insurance fund allocations, could drive market performance [43][43][43] - **Earnings Growth**: EPS growth is projected at 10% for FY26, which is seen as a critical driver for market performance [51][51][51] Risks and Challenges - **Geopolitical Risks**: Ongoing geopolitical tensions remain a risk factor, although the market appears to be more desensitized compared to previous years [65][65][65] - **Property Market Hard Landing**: A potential hard landing in the property market poses significant risks to the overall economy [95][95][95] - **Capital Exodus**: Concerns over capital flight associated with currency depreciation and slow structural reforms could impact market stability [95][95][95] Conclusion - The outlook for the Chinese economy in 2026 suggests a cautious approach, with potential growth tempered by slowing consumption and ongoing risks in the property sector. However, institutional inflows and a focus on innovation present opportunities for investors.

Summary of Conference Call Notes on China Industrials Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **China Industrials** sector, focusing on the implications of the **2026 Consumption Subsidy Scheme** announced by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) [1] Key Points Consumption Subsidy Scheme - The **2026 subsidy program** has a budget of **US$8.9 billion**, significantly lower than the **Rmb300 billion (approx. US$41.8 billion)** allocated for 2025 [1] - The expected positive impact on corporate earnings for 2026 is anticipated to be less than in 2025 due to the reduced budget [1] - Major sectors covered include **home appliances, auto, digital consumer products, and upgrading equipment** [1] Specific Subsidy Details - **Digital and smart products** will be included in the 2026 scheme, offering a **15% rebate** on items like smartphones and smartwatches, capped at **Rmb 500** each [2] - For home appliances, a **15% subsidy** is available for six categories, capped at **Rmb 1,500** per item [2] - In the auto sector, scrapping old cars can yield subsidies of **12%** of the purchase price for new energy vehicles (NEVs), capped at **Rmb 20,000** [2] Equipment Upgrade Program - The equipment-upgrade program will expand to include sectors such as **elevators in old residential blocks, elderly-care facilities, and fire-and-rescue systems** [3] Company Insights Preferred Companies - **Shengyi Tech**, **Han's CNC**, **Shennan Circuit**, and **KB Laminate** are highlighted for their sales exposure and AI-related business opportunities [1] - **Hengli Hydraulic** is favored in the automation space due to potential re-rating linked to humanoid robots [1] Company Valuations and Risks - **Han's CNC**: Target price of **Rmb 140** based on a **50x 2026E P/E**, with a **98% earnings CAGR** expected for 2025-26E [7] - Risks include weaker AI PCB equipment demand and rising component costs [8] - **Hengli Hydraulic**: Target price of **Rmb 135** based on a **52x 2026E P/E** [9] - Risks include weaker demand for components and lower-than-expected gross profit margins [10] - **Kingboard Laminates Holdings**: Target price of **HK$20.5** based on a **19-20x P/E** for 2026E, reflecting potential earnings upgrades [11] - Risks include slower customer certification and macroeconomic conditions [12] - **Shengyi Technology**: Target price of **Rmb 83** based on a **44x 2026E P/E**, with a strong growth outlook due to AI-CCL revenue [13] - Risks include lower-than-expected demand for AI-CCL orders and subdued consumption [14] - **Shennan Circuit**: Target price of **Rmb 281** based on a **48x forward 2026E P/E**, with significant exposure to AI and auto segments [16] - Risks include slower-than-expected demand in the AI server market and higher laminate cost inflation [17] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the **2026 subsidy program** in shaping the earnings outlook for various companies within the industrial sector [1][2][3] - The anticipated lower budget for the subsidy program may lead to a more cautious investment environment compared to 2025 [1] - Companies with strong positions in AI and digital products are expected to benefit more from the subsidy scheme [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is facing significant challenges due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which are affecting small and medium-sized manufacturers like AlphaUSA, potentially threatening their existence without relief or the ability to pass costs on to consumers [2][3][11]. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on Manufacturers - AlphaUSA, a manufacturer of automotive fasteners, reports that tariffs have increased costs significantly, with some parts seeing price increases from $0.10 to $0.15 due to a 50% tariff [6]. - The company has paid approximately $1.3 million in tariffs through November, with ongoing costs estimated at $225,000 to $250,000 per month [9]. - The auto industry has lost around 58,000 manufacturing jobs this year, with over 15,000 of those in the automotive sector specifically [11]. Group 2: Responses from the Automotive Sector - Some manufacturers are returning to the U.S. to avoid tariffs, but the overall job loss in manufacturing raises concerns about the effectiveness of these policies [4][23]. - Stellantis, a major automotive company, initially planned to cut jobs at its Warren assembly plant but reversed this decision following the announcement of automotive tariffs, indicating a potential positive impact on job retention and expansion [13][19]. - Union representatives express optimism about the tariffs leading to new investments and job creation, with expectations of 900 new jobs linked to upcoming production shifts [17][18]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Challenges - There is a belief among some industry stakeholders that the tariffs could lead to a resurgence in American manufacturing, although the actual outcomes remain uncertain [23]. - The Supreme Court's skepticism regarding the broad authority of tariffs may pose risks to some of Trump's tariff policies, but those under Section 232, affecting manufacturers like AlphaUSA, are not directly impacted by this case [24]. - Manufacturers emphasize the importance of keeping their workforce employed and the challenges they face in expanding their operations due to financial constraints caused by tariffs [25].

Group 1 - Clearwater Analytics Holdings, Inc. is being acquired by a consortium of private equity firms led by Permira and Warburg Pincus for approximately $8.4 billion, including debt [1] - Following the acquisition announcement, Clearwater Analytics shares increased by 7.6% to $23.93 in pre-market trading [1] Group 2 - Autozi Internet Technology (Global) Ltd. experienced a significant surge of 60% to $4.00 in pre-market trading after confirming a $90 million initial equity investment [4] - Datavault AI Inc. saw a rise of 34.8% to $1.31 in pre-market trading due to the announcement of two foundational U.S. patents related to blockchain-driven content licensing [4] - Vision Marine Technologies Inc. rose by 30.3% to $0.3270 after closing a public offering [4] - Sidus Space, Inc. increased by 20.7% to $1.40 after a previous jump of 35% [4] - Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation gained 14.2% to $18.77 after a 7% increase on the previous trading day [4] - Creative Media & Community Trust Corporation shares jumped 13.2% to $3.61 after a 7% gain on Friday [4] - ABIVAX Société Anonyme gained 10.2% to $126.64 in pre-market trading [4] Group 3 - Luminar Technologies, Inc. fell sharply by 54.8% to $0.2728 after announcing voluntary Chapter 11 proceedings [4] - Mint Incorporation Limited declined by 14.4% to $0.41 after a significant increase of over 75% on Friday [4] - Culp, Inc. reported mixed second-quarter financial results, leading to a 10.1% drop to $3.11 in pre-market trading [4] - Rising Dragon Acquisition Corp. declined by 9.5% to $9.42 following a trust amendment announcement [4] - Hyperscale Data, Inc. fell by 9.2% to $0.2335 after announcing an "at-the-market" offering of common stock [4]

Core Viewpoint - India's real GDP growth for Q2 (July to September) is projected to be 7.5% or more, driven by consumption boosts following the GST rate cut, surpassing the Reserve Bank of India's projection of 7% [1][4]. Economic Indicators - Growth is supported by increased investment activities, recovery in rural consumption, and buoyancy in services and manufacturing, aided by structural reforms like GST rationalization [2]. - The percentage of leading indicators in consumption and demand across agriculture, industry, and service sectors has increased to 83% in Q2 from 70% in Q1 [3]. GST Collections - Gross domestic GST collections for November 2025 are estimated to be around ₹1.49 lakh crore, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.8% [4]. - Including ₹51,000 crore of IGST and cess on imports, November GST collections could exceed ₹2 lakh crore, driven by peak festive season demand and increased compliance [5]. Consumer Spending Trends - During the festive season (September-October 2025), consumption received a significant boost, with credit and debit card spending patterns indicating substantial growth in categories like Auto, Grocery stores, Electronics, and Travel [6]. - In e-commerce, 38% of spending was on Utility & Services, followed by 17% on Supermarkets and Grocery, with mid-tier cities showing the most growth [7]. Sectoral Analysis - All sectors, except textiles, exhibit high elasticity in response to GST rationalization, indicating a strong consumption response [8]. - The reduction of the effective GST rate is expected to lead to an average consumer saving of 7% per month on consumption, with potential for further increases as more data becomes available [9]. Vehicle Sales - Vehicle sales showed double-digit growth, with car sales volume increasing by 19%, particularly strong in rural regions, and a notable premiumization trend in urban and metro centers [10].