That’s why my model doesn’t necessarily conflict with Black-Scholes; instead, I’m just trying to narrow down the expected move range to probable suspects. With that in mind, here’s a bullish and bearish idea to consider this week.To make a long story short, Black-Scholes assumes a parametric world where most stock prices should fall within one standard deviation of the spot price (while accounting for volatility and days to expiration). However, this parametric world assumes volatility is an independent inp ...

日前，中欧协会智能网联汽车分会发布了2025年度中国乘用车品牌影响力指数报告及2025年度中国商用车品牌影响力指数报告。 报告显示，中国汽车市场两大板块呈现差异化发展态势：在乘用车领域，以吉利、比亚迪（002594）、AITO问界为代表的自主品牌凭借技术、生态与用 户口碑优势，主导市场格局并重塑竞争规则；在商用车领域，市场结构保持稳定，中国一汽、东风、江铃汽车（000550）等传统龙头凭借产品可靠性与 渠道网络巩固地位，同时电动化、智能化转型正成为驱动行业价值演进的核心动力。 2025年，以技术驱动和用户运营为核心的品牌成为市场格局的重要变量。AITO问界年度网络声量为278.63万条，网民声量占比达93.34%。其推出的问界 M9车型进入50万元价格区间。报告指出，华为在智能驾驶与智能座舱领域的技术支持是其关键助力。 传统车企旗下的新能源系列同样增长显著。吉利银河系列销量快速攀升。长城、长安等品牌在混合动力与纯电路线持续推出新产品。这些品牌通过高频 次的技术更新、用户共创模式及生态场景拓展，将竞争范围从传统的车辆性能扩展到用户体验、软件服务及全生命周期价值管理等领域。 面对本土品牌在电动化与智能化领域的竞争 ...

Axis Bank Ltd., Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd., Ultratech Cement Ltd., RBL Bank Ltd., State Bank of India are some of the stocks that will catch investors' attention on Tuesday. Here are the notable corporate announcements that came after Friday's market hours:  Earnings In FocusAsian Paints, Aditya Vision, Bikaji Foods International, CG Power and Industrial Solutions, Dodla Dairy, Gopal Snacks, International Gemmological Institute India, Mahindra Logistics, Marico, Metro Brands, NESCO, PC Jeweller, Raymond, Raym ...

Core Insights - The A-share IPO review process for 2025 concluded with a high-quality performance, featuring a total of 113 companies reviewed and an overall approval rate of 97.35%, marking a record high in recent years [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The main board and the ChiNext board showed the most stable performance, with the Shanghai main board (19 companies), Shenzhen main board (10 companies), and ChiNext (14 companies) achieving a 100% approval rate, indicating precise support for mature and innovative growth enterprises [1] - The Beijing Stock Exchange emerged as the primary venue for reviewing innovative small and medium-sized enterprises, with 51 companies reviewed and 49 approved, resulting in a 96% approval rate, reflecting sustained market vitality [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board maintained stringent selection criteria for "hard technology," with 19 companies reviewed and 18 approved, yielding a 94.7% approval rate [1] Group 2: Underwriting Institutions - The leading underwriting institutions demonstrated a significant "winner-takes-all" effect, with Guotai Junan Securities leading with 16 approved projects, followed by CITIC Securities (12) and CITIC Jianan Securities (11), solidifying their positions in the top tier [3] - Other institutions such as Dongwu, Guojin, Guotou, Huatai United, and China Merchants Securities each contributed 5 approved projects, forming the backbone of annual IPO underwriting [3] Group 3: Industry Distribution - The capital market's effectiveness in serving the real economy has significantly improved, with resources accelerating towards high-tech manufacturing. The computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing sectors led with 20 companies reviewed, followed by specialized equipment manufacturing (17 companies), and automotive and electrical machinery manufacturing (10 companies each), highlighting the financing dominance of "hard technology" and high-end manufacturing sectors [5]

Stock market benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty declined in early trade on Tuesday (December 30, 2025) as persistent foreign fund outflows and a muted trend in global equities dented investors’ sentiment. The 30-share BSE Sensex dropped 209.32 points to 84,486.22 in early trade. The 50-share NSE Nifty edged lower by 63.25 points to 25,878.85. From the 30-Sensex firms, Eternal, InterGlobe Aviation, Bajaj Finserv, Tata Steel, UltraTech Cement and Kotak Mahindra Bank were among the biggest laggards. However, B ...

Group 1: Market Trends and Predictions - The market is expected to experience volatility, upheaval, innovation, and bold shifts in 2026, drawing parallels to 1966 [3] - The labor market is shifting towards AI skills and automation, contrasting with the industrial labor boom of 1966 [8] - The outlook for oil remains uncertain due to geopolitical factors, with $60 being a significant price pivot [9] Group 2: Industry Developments - Biotech advancements are moving from symptom treatment to true cures, driven by AI and immunology [5] - The banking and finance sectors are transitioning towards digitalization, tokenization, and deregulation, reminiscent of the ATM transformation in 1966 [6] - Commodities such as copper, silver, and uranium are highlighted as having strong potential, with structural shortages in electrification themes [10] Group 3: Economic Insights - There is skepticism regarding headline CPI numbers, with a focus on price, rotation, and intermarket relationships [7] - The concept of universal income is gaining traction among influential leaders, echoing discussions from the late 1960s [8] - Consumer spending is resilient despite weaker job data, similar to trends observed in 1966 [6]

Core Viewpoint - LG Energy Solution is selling its Ohio factory building and assets to Honda Development and Manufacturing of America for a total value of $2.86 billion [1] Company Summary - The transaction involves the sale of a factory building and associated assets located in Ohio [1] - The deal is part of LG Energy Solution's strategic moves within the industry [1] Industry Summary - The sale reflects ongoing trends in the electric vehicle supply chain, as companies like Honda are investing in manufacturing capabilities [1] - This transaction may indicate a shift in partnerships and collaborations within the electric vehicle sector [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Global Battery Supply Chain, specifically Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) and Electric Vehicles (EVs) [2][10] - **Market Dynamics**: The demand for BESS is projected to grow significantly, with global battery installation forecasts raised to 3.8 TWh by 2030 [2][10] Core Insights and Arguments - **Battery Demand Forecasts**: - Global battery demand for 2025-2030 has been revised upward by 1-11%, with BESS demand increasing by 4-37% [2][10] - BESS is expected to account for 31% of total battery demand by 2030, with an estimated 1.19 TWh [2][10] - U.S. BESS demand is projected to rise by 14%-21% to 177 GWh by 2030, driven by investment tax credits and data center expansions [2][10][3] - **EV Market Adjustments**: - Global EV sales forecasts have been trimmed by 1-7%, with specific reductions in China and the U.S. due to policy changes [12][10] - Expected EV penetration rates for 2030 are 39% globally, 76% in China, 41% in the EU, and 17% in the U.S. [10] - **Critical Minerals and Supply Chain Resilience**: - Critical materials are increasingly viewed as strategic assets, with demand driven by energy transition, automation, and geopolitical tensions [4][57] - Investment in supply chain redundancy and local processing is essential to mitigate risks associated with reliance on specific countries, particularly China [4][57] Additional Important Insights - **Policy Impacts**: - New guidelines from China's NDRC and NEA are expected to enhance BESS economic viability through improved capacity compensation mechanisms [11][34] - The U.S. market is facing electricity supply/demand imbalances, with BESS seen as a solution to support data center expansions [3][11] - **Investment Recommendations**: - Top picks for exposure to the BESS market include LG Energy Solution (LGES), which is well-positioned to capture U.S. market share [13][18] - Other recommended companies include Sungrow and CSI Solar, which are expected to benefit from robust global BESS demand [37][13] - **Market Trends**: - The U.S. electricity demand is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.0% from 2025 to 2030, primarily driven by data centers [16][39] - The anticipated growth in BESS demand is supported by significant government subsidies covering approximately 70% of capital expenditures [17][3] - **Challenges and Bottlenecks**: - Key bottlenecks include interconnection and local permitting approvals, which can delay project timelines [22][23] - The transition to onshore battery sourcing is expected to increase, but challenges remain regarding the import of Chinese components due to regulatory changes [24][31] Conclusion The global battery supply chain is undergoing significant transformations driven by increasing demand for BESS and EVs, influenced by policy changes and market dynamics. Investment in critical minerals and supply chain resilience is crucial for future growth, with specific companies identified as key players in this evolving landscape.

Core Insights - Shell plc has signed a long-term deal with Ferrari to supply renewable energy until 2034, aiming to reduce Ferrari's carbon footprint and meet sustainability targets [1][4][10] Group 1: Partnership Details - The agreement will provide Ferrari with a total of 650 gigawatt hours (GWh) of renewable energy over the next decade, covering nearly half of the energy requirements at its Maranello plant [3][9] - Shell will also provide renewable energy certificates to cover all of Ferrari's energy needs across Italy, ensuring alignment with environmental goals [6][9] Group 2: Emission Reduction Goals - Ferrari aims to achieve a 90% decrease in absolute Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions by 2030, with this partnership playing a critical role in that strategy [4][10] - Scope 1 emissions are directly linked to Ferrari's operations, while Scope 2 emissions are associated with the electricity purchased for operations [5] Group 3: Industry Trends - Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) are becoming essential in the renewable energy sector, allowing businesses to secure favorable pricing and access to renewable power [2][7] - The collaboration between Shell and Ferrari reflects a broader trend of businesses integrating renewable energy solutions to stabilize costs and reduce environmental impact [7][8][15] Group 4: Future Implications - This partnership sets a new benchmark for the automotive sector, demonstrating that luxury and sustainability can coexist [16] - Ferrari is positioning itself as a leader in sustainable luxury, aligning with the growing trend of eco-conscious consumers [15][14]

Group 1: European Natural Gas Market - European natural gas futures have fallen below the €30/MWh mark, reaching their lowest point since May 2024, attributed to milder weather forecasts reducing heating demand and momentum towards peace talks between Ukraine, the US, and Russia [2][8] - The Dutch December TTF futures traded 3.1% lower at €30.20 per megawatt-hour [2] Group 2: Automotive Sector - Goldman Sachs has initiated coverage on several automotive manufacturers, issuing "Buy" ratings for Ferrari (RACE) with a target price of €391, BMW (BMW) with a target price of €112, and Mercedes-Benz Group Ag (MBG) [3][8] - Stellantis Nv (STLA) and Renault (RNO) received "Neutral" ratings with target prices of $10 and €36 respectively [3] Group 3: Technology Sector - Alphabet Inc (GOOGL, GOOG) has signed a multi-million dollar deal with NATO through Google Cloud to provide AI-enabled sovereign cloud capabilities, enhancing security and control over sensitive data [4][8] Group 4: Economic Indicators - Switzerland's Non-Farm Payrolls for Q3 2025 remained stable at 5.532 million, consistent with the previous quarter [5][8] - South Korea's Finance Ministry announced measures to improve pension fund returns and bolster foreign exchange market stability [5][8]