Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Insights - British American Tobacco focuses on expanding the Glo product line in the second half of the year, with expectations for revenue growth driven by innovative products [1] - The company anticipates a revenue increase of 1-2% for the fiscal year 2025, with adjusted operating profit expected to rise by 1.5%-2.5% [1] - Despite a 9% year-on-year decline in industry sales, British American Tobacco has solidified its market share in the U.S. [1] - The electronic cigarette export value from China remained stable in April 2025, with a total export amount of $8.77 billion, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.84% [4] Summary by Sections Emerging Industry - British American Tobacco's revenue for the first half of 2025 is better than expected, with strong performance in the Americas, Middle East, and Europe regions [1] - The modern oral tobacco product Velo is experiencing rapid growth, increasing its market share by 270 basis points to 14.3% [2] - Glo's market share has decreased by 90 basis points, primarily due to competition in Japan, but Glo Hilo's launch in Serbia shows promising results [2] Electronic Cigarettes - Vuse maintains its global value share leadership, but faces challenges from illegal products in the U.S. and Canada [3] - The company expects a double-digit revenue decline in the first half of the year, with improvements anticipated in the second half due to the launch of Vuse Ultra [3] - Long-term goals include a revenue growth target of 3-5% and adjusted operating profit growth of 4-6% by 2026 [3] Export Data - In the first four months of 2025, China's electronic cigarette exports totaled $3.242 billion, with the U.S. being the largest market, accounting for $334 million [4] - The UAE market has shown significant growth, surpassing Malaysia to become the fifth-largest destination for Chinese electronic cigarette exports [4] Investment Opportunities - Suggested companies to focus on include Smoore International, Yinghe Technology, and others in the vaping supply chain [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article explores the concept of contrarian investing, emphasizing its complexity beyond the simplistic notion of "buy low, sell high." It introduces a quantitative approach to measure contrarian investment capabilities through the concept of emotional beta, demonstrating that fund managers who achieve excess returns when investor opinions converge tend to perform better in the future [1][5][12]. Emotional Beta and Asset Returns - Contrarian investing is defined as taking positions contrary to the majority of investors. Turnover rate is used to represent the degree of investor disagreement, with lower turnover indicating greater consensus. Empirical results show that assets with low emotional beta often exhibit better future performance across various asset classes [2][6]. Quantitative Expression of Contrarian Investment Capability - The article constructs a contrarian investment capability factor based on fund holdings and fund returns. The average RankIC for the fund holding-based factor is -7.30%, with an annualized RankICIR of -0.92 and a win rate of 67.21%. The fund return-based factor shows an average RankIC of -8.92%, an annualized RankICIR of -1.04, and a win rate of 75.41%. The combined contrarian investment capability factor has an average RankIC of -10.85%, an annualized RankICIR of -1.39, and a win rate of 78.69% [3][66]. Characteristics of the Contrarian Investment Capability Factor - The contrarian investment capability factor exhibits low correlation with nine previously constructed selection factors, with absolute correlation values below 0.1. The introduction of this factor enhances the predictive power of a composite selection factor, increasing its average RankIC from 11.51% to 13.57% [4][73]. Market Adaptability and Predictive Power - Since 2015, the contrarian investment capability factor has shown high predictive power, with an average RankIC of -10.85% and an annualized RankICIR of -1.39. It has maintained strong performance even as other previously successful factors have experienced significant volatility [6][73]. Historical Examples of Contrarian Investors - Notable investors like Warren Buffett and John Templeton exemplify successful contrarian investing. Buffett's strategy involves buying undervalued stocks during market downturns, while Templeton capitalized on extreme pessimism during the Great Depression by investing in undervalued stocks [8][9][12].

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.42%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.87%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.11% [1] - The total market turnover reached 1,117.4 billion yuan, an increase of 13.6 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 3,900 stocks rising [1] Group 2: Beer Sector Performance - The beer sector saw significant gains, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit [3] - The rise in the beer sector is attributed to the ongoing popularity of "new consumption" trends and the "micro-drunk economy," where younger consumers prefer low-alcohol beverages for relaxed social experiences [3] - Qingdao Beer has been recommended by 15 brokerage firms in the last three months, indicating strong investment value, with reasons including resource optimization and market expansion [3] Group 3: Tobacco Sector Activity - The tobacco sector showed active performance, with companies like Jinjia Co. and Huabao Co. hitting the daily limit [4] - Recent regulatory updates from the National Tobacco Monopoly Administration aim to enhance the electronic cigarette regulatory framework, impacting production and market standards [4] - The stock of Hong Kong Tobacco surged over 7%, reaching a historical high, further fueling market enthusiasm for tobacco-related concepts [5] Group 4: Market Outlook - Positive factors for the market include favorable views from foreign investment banks and potential tariff benefits, which may boost market sentiment [5] - Analysts suggest that the market adjustment space is limited due to supportive policies, with a focus on structural opportunities [6] - The technology and consumer sectors are expected to remain key investment themes, with high-growth industries such as AI infrastructure and robotics being highlighted [6]

Core Viewpoint - The consumer sector experienced a significant surge, with major A-share indices closing higher and over 3,900 stocks in the market showing gains [1][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.42%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.87%, and the ChiNext Index climbed by 1.11% [1]. - The total market turnover reached approximately 1.18 trillion yuan, an increase of 136 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. Group 2: Sector Highlights - Key sectors that saw notable gains included beauty care, beer, copper cable high-speed connections, and clothing and home textiles [3][10]. - Specific stocks such as Wanbangde in the innovative drug concept and Huabao Co. showed strong performance, with Huabao Co. hitting a new high since October 9, 2024 [5][10]. Group 3: Company Insights - Huabao Co. focuses on the flavor and ingredient industry, providing solutions centered on natural technology, with main products including tobacco and food flavors [7]. - The company is set to participate as a cornerstone investor in the IPO of "Hushang Auntie" in 2025, showcasing a model of "capital empowerment + industrial synergy" [8]. - Huabao Co. has established stable partnerships across various sectors, including food, beverages, catering, and dairy [8]. Group 4: Consumer Trends - New consumption concept stocks in Hong Kong, such as Mao Ge Ping and Zhongyan Hong Kong, reached historical highs, indicating a robust market sentiment [14]. - Analysts are optimistic about the long-term opportunities in the consumer sector, particularly in areas like trendy toys, gold jewelry, and new tea beverages [14]. - The beer sector is entering a peak consumption season, with expectations for revenue growth and improved profitability due to product upgrades and cost advantages [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant rally in the stock market, particularly in the consumer sector, with various sectors such as food and beverage, tobacco, and solid-state batteries showing strong performance amid a backdrop of policy support for domestic demand [1][5]. Consumer Sector - The consumer sector experienced a collective surge, with major indices like the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index showing strong gains. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.42% to 3376.2 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.87% to 10144.58 points, and the ChiNext Index climbed 1.11% to 2024.93 points [1]. - Notable stocks in the food and beverage sector included Pinwa Foods, which rose nearly 13%, and several others like Xiangpiaopiao and Youyou Foods hitting the daily limit [3][4]. - The article mentions that the overall market saw nearly 4000 stocks in the green, indicating broad-based participation in the rally [1]. Tobacco Sector - The tobacco sector saw a significant rise, with stocks like Huabao and Jinjia both hitting the daily limit, and Huaye Fragrance increasing by approximately 9% [6][7]. - In the Hong Kong market, stocks such as Smoore International and China Tobacco Hong Kong also reached new highs, with Smoore rising about 13% and China Tobacco Hong Kong nearly 9% [10]. Solid-State Battery Sector - The solid-state battery sector showed strong upward movement, with stocks like Keheng and Nord both hitting the daily limit, and others like Longpan Technology and Chuan Yi Technology also performing well [11][12]. - The demand for solid-state batteries is expected to rise due to applications in electric vehicles, low-altitude economy, and robotics, with projections indicating significant market growth in the coming years [14]. - The article notes that the solid-state battery market is anticipated to reach a shipment volume of 614.1 GWh by 2030, with a market size exceeding 250 billion yuan [14].

Group 1 - The tobacco sector saw an increase of 2.65%, ranking third among concept sectors, with 36 stocks rising, including Huabao Co., which hit a 20% limit up, and Jinjia Co., which also reached the limit up [1][2] - The leading gainers in the tobacco sector included Huaye Fragrance (up 8.98%), Shunhao Co. (up 6.54%), and Yaxiang Co. (up 4.32%) [1][2] - The stocks with the largest declines included Huichen Co. (down 2.35%), Yinfeng Storage (down 1.71%), and Changrong Co. (down 0.74%) [1][2] Group 2 - The tobacco sector attracted a net inflow of 95 million yuan from main funds, with 23 stocks receiving net inflows, and 7 stocks seeing inflows exceeding 10 million yuan [2] - Jinjia Co. led the net inflow with 89.11 million yuan, followed by Huabao Co. (55.56 million yuan), Zhongke Information (55.25 million yuan), and Shaanxi Jinye (25.33 million yuan) [2][3] Group 3 - In terms of net inflow ratios, Jinjia Co. had a net inflow rate of 33.25%, Huabao Co. at 13.93%, and Dashingda at 12.59% [3] - The tobacco sector's inflow rankings showed Jinjia Co. leading with a daily increase of 9.92%, followed by Huabao Co. at 20.02% [3][4]

盘面上，权重科技股多数上涨，美团涨3%，腾讯控股、快手、百度、网易涨超1%，阿里巴巴、小米、 京东飘红；核电股大涨，中广核矿业涨超28%；创新药板块强势上涨，信达生物涨超14%；中资券商股 活跃，中泰期货涨6%；烟草股、生物医药股、稀土概念股、军工股、煤炭股纷纷上涨。 另一方面，水务股下挫，中国水业集团跌超15%；电信股下跌，中国联通跌超2%；化妆品股、家电 股、燃气股、保险股低迷。 个股方面，消费品F4蜜雪集团、泡泡玛特、老铺黄金齐创新高。 具体来看： 权重科技股多数上涨，美团涨3%，腾讯控股、快手、百度、网易涨超1%，阿里巴巴、小米、京东微 涨。 | 代码 | 名称 | | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 胀跌幅 V | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 03690 | 美团-W | (0) | 140.700 | +4.100 | 3.00% | | 00700 | 腾讯控股 | | 512.000 | +7.000 | 1.39% | | 01024 | 快手-W | | 51.900 | +0.700 | 1.37% | | 09888 | 百度集团-SW | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the HNB industry, indicating a positive outlook based on favorable market conditions and consumer preferences [1][45]. Core Insights - The Japanese HNB market is one of the largest globally, reaching a scale of 10 billion USD in 2023, driven by stable policies and changing consumer habits [6][9]. - The market exhibits an oligopolistic structure dominated by key players such as PMI, JT, and BAT, with a CR2 exceeding 70% [30][29]. - Continuous product iteration among major manufacturers is expected to sustain growth, with new product launches anticipated to create additional market opportunities [38][34]. Summary by Sections Japanese HNB Market Overview - The Japanese HNB market is the largest globally, with a market size of 10 billion USD in 2023, reflecting a growth rate of over 10% from 2020 to 2023 [9][6]. - A stable policy environment supports HNB product growth, with favorable regulations and lower tax rates compared to traditional cigarettes [13][14]. - HNB penetration rates have surpassed 40% overall and 50% in major cities by 2024, indicating significant growth potential [22][27]. Market Structure - The Japanese HNB market is characterized by an oligopolistic structure, with PMI holding over 60% market share, followed by JT and BAT [30][34]. - Each major player has core products that drive growth through continuous innovation, with differences in heating technology and user experience [34][38]. - A new product iteration cycle is expected in 2025, with BAT's Glo Hilo set to launch, potentially enhancing market penetration and competitive positioning [38][39]. Consumer Preferences and Trends - Japanese consumers show a strong preference for innovative and healthier smoking alternatives, which aligns with the characteristics of HNB products [17][19]. - The demand for low-tar and low-nicotine products is increasing, and HNB products are gaining acceptance in various social settings [17][18]. - The trend towards stylish and technologically advanced products is driving the growth of HNB consumption among urban consumers [19][20].

Core Insights - The 2025 China Cigar (Sichuan) Expo showcased the growth potential of the Chinese cigar industry, emphasizing international cooperation and cultural exchange [1][2][4] Industry Development - The expo attracted participants from countries like Cuba and the Dominican Republic, with over 100 exhibitors from the cigar accessory sector, highlighting the global interest in the Chinese cigar market [2][8] - Key discussions at the expo included the development of the cigar industry, market expansion, and quality improvement of cigar leaves, indicating a focus on enhancing the entire supply chain [2][3] Market Performance - In 2023, China's cigar sales volume ranked second globally, with a year-on-year sales growth of 12.55%, reflecting a robust market performance [5][6] - The Longcheng brand, as a leading Chinese cigar brand, holds the largest market share and production capacity in the country, indicating its dominance in the domestic market [6][9] Cultural Integration - The expo featured immersive experiences that combined cigar tasting with cultural activities, promoting a deeper understanding of the cigar lifestyle among enthusiasts [2][3] - Sichuan Tobacco has been actively promoting cigar culture through various initiatives, including the establishment of a cigar culture museum and national touring exhibitions [8][9] International Strategy - Sichuan Tobacco is enhancing its international presence by participating in global cigar exhibitions and collaborating with renowned international brands, which strengthens its competitive edge [6][7] - The company aims to position Chinese cigars as a significant player in the global market, aspiring to create a "third pole" for cigars worldwide [7][8]

Group 1: Evolution of Consumption Society in Japan and the U.S. - The generational shift has profoundly influenced the evolution of consumption societies in Japan and the U.S. [1] - In Japan, the Taisho and early Showa generations led the transition from the first to the second consumption society, followed by the New Human Generation and part of the Baby Boomer generation driving the third consumption society [1] - In the U.S., Baby Boomers focus on unique product advantages, Generation X prefers time-saving products, Generation Y is enthusiastic about energy-saving and green consumption, while Generation Z contributes significantly to digital and gaming consumption [1] Group 2: Current State and Potential of China's Consumption Society - The post-90s and post-95s generations in China have developed consumption concepts similar to Japan's New Human Generation and the U.S. Baby Boomers, emphasizing spiritual satisfaction and personalized consumption [2] - Compared to Japan and the U.S., China's service consumption currently stands at 46.1%, indicating significant room for growth in the service sector [2] Group 3: Characteristics of the Third Consumption Society and Self-Satisfaction Consumption Trends - In the third consumption society, consumers prioritize emotional and psychological factors over mere functionality when selecting products, leading to a shift in brand positioning from "leader" to "supporting role" [3][10] - Self-satisfaction consumption is emerging as a key trend, focusing on emotional resources, emotional resolution solutions, and legal emotional release [6][11] Group 4: Emotional Consumption Trends - Emotional resources include the pet economy, IP toys, and temple economy, catering to spiritual and emotional needs [6] - Emotional resolution solutions are found in beauty and personal care products, gold and jewelry, and new-style food and beverages that address appearance and safety anxieties [6] - Legal emotional release is represented by outdoor activities, light alcoholic beverages, and tobacco products, which help consumers manage stress [6]