烟叶进出口营收快增，卷烟出口、新型烟草及巴西业务短期承压 1H25具体看，1)烟叶进口：收入同增23.5%，其中进口量/均价同增2.5% /20.5%，发运节奏影响下均价 较高烟叶占比提升;2)烟叶出口：收入同增25.9%，其中出口量/均价同增12.7%/11.7%，公司积极拓展新 客户，产品结构优化带动均价提升;3)卷烟出口：收入同增0.8%，销量/均价同比-7.9%/+9.4%，发运节奏 影响下销量短期承压，产品结构优化带动均价提升;4)新型烟草：收入同降66.4%，销量/均价同降 65.4%/3.1%，供应链及海外监管波动下经营承压;5)巴西业务：收入同降50.3%，销量/均价同降 34.8%/23.8%，气候制约、副产品出货节奏影响收入增速; 烟叶出口、卷烟出口及巴西业务毛利率向好，气候影响烟叶进口盈利水平 智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，基于烟叶进出口业务成长势头，上调中烟香港(06055)2025/26年 归母净利润5%/8%至9.8/10.9亿港元，现价对应2025/26年27/24倍P/E。考虑公司作为中国烟草独家境外 资本运作平台的稀缺价值、内生+外延成长空间，上调公司评级至跑赢行业。基 ...

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 中烟香港(6055.HK) 投资评级 上次评级 [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 中烟香港：业绩表现优异，期待外延&出海表 现 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 8 月 24 日 [Table_S 事件：公司发布 ummary] 2025 年半年度报告。25H1 收入实现 103.16 亿港元（同比 +18.5%），归母净利润为 7.06 亿港元（同比+9.8%）；毛利率实现 9.2%（同 比-1.9pct），归母净利率为 6.9%（同比-0.5pct）。 点评：公司收入表现稳健，盈利增长低于收入增长主要系海外供需错配导致 烟叶进口成本提升。分品类来看： 烟叶进口：25H1 收入为 83 ...

中烟香港 [Table_StockNameRptType] （6055.HK） 公司点评 25H1 业绩稳健增长，持续提升核心竞争力 | [Table_Rank] | 投资评级：买入（维持） | | | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025-08-23 | | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（港元） | | 37.94 | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（港元）37.94/15.04 | | | | 总股本（百万股） | | 692 | | 流通股本（百万股） | | 692 | | 流通股比例（%） | | 100 | | 总市值（亿港元） | | 262 | [公司价格与恒生指数走势比较 Table_Chart] [Table_Author] 分析师：徐偲 执业证书号：S0010523120001 邮箱：xucai@hazq.com 分析师：余倩莹 执业证书号：S0010524040004 邮箱：yuqianying@hazq.com [Table_CompanyReport] 相关报告 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 证券研究报告 流通市值（亿港元） 262 1. ...

Core Viewpoint - Shunhao Co., Ltd. plans to issue H shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange despite declining performance and ongoing legal issues, raising questions about the necessity and feasibility of the IPO [1][10]. Financial Performance - Shunhao's revenue and net profit have been on a downward trend since 2018, with revenue failing to exceed the 2018 peak of 20.55 billion yuan, and net profit showing significant losses in several years [4][5]. - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 620 million yuan and a net profit of 29 million yuan, representing year-on-year declines of 12.19% and 6.24% respectively [6]. Employee Reduction - The company has reduced its workforce by nearly 50% over the past seven years, from 2,121 employees in 2017 to 1,116 in 2024, indicating ongoing operational challenges [7][9]. Acquisition Issues - Shunhao has faced significant losses due to problematic acquisitions, such as the 2013 purchase of Zhejiang Demei, which led to a loss of 51 million yuan in 2014 due to management misconduct [5][6]. Legal and Compliance Challenges - The company is currently under investigation for alleged unit bribery, which poses a significant obstacle to its IPO plans, as compliance with regulatory standards is critical for approval from both the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [11][12][13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Shunhao Co., Ltd. plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its global strategy and competitiveness [2] - The company is actively discussing the issuance and listing with relevant intermediaries, and specific details are yet to be finalized [2] - Shunhao Co., Ltd. has appointed Hong Kong Lixin as the auditing firm for this issuance and listing [2] Group 2 - Shunhao Co., Ltd. was established in 2004 and focuses on eco-friendly packaging materials, new tobacco products, and industrial hemp, with a clear business structure [3] - The company employs nearly 1,200 people and has around 30 subsidiaries located in various regions including the US, Cambodia, and several provinces in China [3] - As of August 18, the company's market capitalization is approximately 9.042 billion RMB [3]

Group 1 - Yisou Technology (02550) rose nearly 12.63% after announcing a share subscription agreement with Lightnet Pte. Ltd., acquiring approximately 1.23% equity for $5 million [1] - Maifushi (02556) fell nearly 2.28% despite a profit forecast of RMB 31.8 million to RMB 41 million for the six months ending June 30, 2025, a significant turnaround from a loss of RMB 820 million in the same period last year [1] - New World Development (00086) increased nearly 4.19% after announcing a profit forecast of no less than HKD 800 million for the six months ending June 30, 2025, compared to HKD 75.4 million in the same period last year [2] Group 2 - Cao Cao Travel (02643) surged nearly 15.68% after signing a strategic cooperation memorandum with Victory Securities to explore virtual asset tokenization and stablecoin applications [2] - Boan Bio (06955) dropped nearly 5.06% after announcing a placement of 48 million shares at HKD 16.42 each, aiming to raise approximately HKD 780 million for R&D and operational purposes [2] - Huaxing Capital Holdings (01911) rose nearly 6%, with a year-to-date stock price increase of 1.1 times, as it plans to invest $100 million in Web 3.0 and cryptocurrency assets [3] Group 3 - Cathay Pacific Airways (00293) continued to decline nearly 3% after a report indicated an 8.3% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of the year, but operating profit fell short of market expectations [3] - Keep (03650) rose over 10%, with a cumulative increase of over 22% this week, reporting an adjusted net profit of approximately RMB 10 million for the first half of the year [4] - Smoore International (06969) increased nearly 5%, with BAT's new tobacco product revenue growing 2.4% year-on-year, and Smoore is expected to benefit from this growth [4] Group 4 - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) fell over 4% after Nomura raised its target price by 79% to HKD 61 but downgraded its rating to "Neutral" due to limited upside potential [5] - Apple (AAPL.US) rose 5.09% after announcing a commitment to invest an additional $100 billion in U.S. manufacturing, bringing its total investment commitment to $600 billion [6] - McDonald's (MCD.US) increased 2.98% with second-quarter revenue growing 5.4% year-on-year to $6.84 billion, exceeding analyst expectations [6]

Group 1: China Market Focus - Extreme weather has led to a decline in manufacturing sentiment, with the manufacturing PMI for July at 49.3, down 0.4 points from the previous month and 0.7 points below the five-year average [13][12] - The political bureau meeting in July emphasized the need for macro policies to "continue to exert force and increase strength" to address structural economic issues [12] - The manufacturing PMI's decline is attributed to high temperatures and heavy rainfall, affecting production and demand, while price indices have shown a significant rebound due to anti-involution effects [13][12] Group 2: Stock Recommendations - Covos (603486 CH) is focusing on expanding its robotics core components and manufacturing project, with an expected annual output of 20 million key components and a projected revenue exceeding 1 billion yuan [21] - Zhaoyi Innovation (603986 CH) is positioned well in the AI era with its customized storage solutions, benefiting from trends in high bandwidth and low power consumption, and is expected to gain market share in the DRAM sector [21] Group 3: UK Market Focus - The UK economy is showing signs of risk, with GDP growth in April and May falling short of expectations, and a potential for two more interest rate cuts this year [31][29] - The UK stock market is facing structural challenges, with high international exposure and a strong pound affecting corporate earnings, while sectors like defense and utilities may perform better [32][31] Group 4: India Market Focus - India's economic growth is projected to slightly decline from 6.5% to 6.2% in the fiscal year 2026, with risks stemming from a slowdown in rural recovery and industrial activity [46] - The Indian government has approved significant defense contracts, with Hindustan Aeronautics (HNAL IN) expected to benefit from a substantial order backlog, indicating strong growth potential in the defense sector [51][46]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key stocks in the financial and manufacturing sectors, including Beike-W, China Resources Land, New China Life Insurance, Qilu Bank, Sungrow Power Supply, and others [54]. Core Insights - The report highlights the investment outlook for the financial and manufacturing industries, emphasizing the recovery of corporate earnings and the potential for stock price appreciation in the context of macroeconomic conditions and policy expectations [5][10][11]. Financial Sector Summary - The financial sector is expected to see a continuation of performance recovery in Q2, with a focus on high-elasticity stocks. The insurance sector is projected to benefit from improved new business value and investment returns [20][21]. - Qilu Bank is noted for its strong growth in credit market share and improving asset quality, with a projected net profit growth of 16.5% in the first half of 2025 [22][26]. Real Estate Sector Summary - The real estate sector is anticipated to experience a rebound due to policy easing and potential for price recovery. Key companies like Beike-W and China Resources Land are highlighted for their strong fundamentals and growth potential [11][12][19]. Manufacturing Sector Summary - The manufacturing sector, particularly in machinery and electrical new energy, is expected to benefit from global competitiveness and accelerated overseas expansion. Companies like Haitian International are positioned to gain from increased export demand [27][35]. - The report emphasizes the importance of new technologies and market trends in the electrical new energy sector, with a focus on storage and solar energy [27][29]. Environmental Sector Summary - The environmental sector, particularly waste incineration and water services, is highlighted for its long-term investment value, with companies like Hanlan Environment and Beijing Water Group recommended for their stable cash flow and growth potential [46][50].

Core Insights - The light industry sector has shown mixed performance in H1 2025, with traditional cyclical and manufacturing companies facing valuation pressure, while domestic personal care brands have gained market share from foreign brands due to product optimization and channel expansion [4] - The report recommends focusing on four main investment themes: 1) High-quality domestic personal care brands with upward market trends and optimized product structures; 2) Export companies with strong demand resilience and minimal tariff impact; 3) Undervalued cyclical assets in home furnishings and paper; 4) New consumption trends in AI glasses, new tobacco, pet products, and trendy toys [4] Sector Review - The light industry sector's overall revenue in Q1 2025 was 137.76 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.8% year-on-year, with net profit down 18.8% to 6.46 billion yuan [19] - The packaging and entertainment sectors performed well, with respective revenue growth rates of 9.4% and 2.4%, while the paper sector faced significant challenges with a revenue decline of 13% [19][22] - The report highlights that the home furnishings sector is benefiting from the "old-for-new" policy, which is expected to stabilize demand [4][19] Personal Care Sector - The personal care market is projected to grow, with the oral care segment expected to reach a market size of 50.51 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.9% [40][41] - Domestic brands are rapidly gaining market share in the sanitary napkin market, which is expected to reach 107.96 billion yuan in 2025, growing at a CAGR of 3.0% from 2025 to 2029 [54][55] - The report emphasizes the importance of product safety and quality in the sanitary napkin market, especially with the implementation of stricter national standards [64] Export Sector - The report notes that the export sector is experiencing a "rush to export" phenomenon due to fluctuating tariff policies, with companies that have strong manufacturing capabilities and minimal tariff impacts being favored [4][82] - The export of pet food and supplies, as well as non-woven fabrics, has shown resilience despite tariff disruptions, indicating strong demand in these categories [93]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The traditional light industry investment logic is diverse, categorized into three main directions: stable growth with high dividends (e.g., Yutong Technology, Yongxin Co.), growth potential (export chain companies like Jiangxin Home), and cyclical (paper and metal packaging) [1][3][4] - The new consumption industry is currently in a high prosperity and growth phase, with opportunities particularly in information tobacco, trendy toys, and personal care sectors [2] Core Insights and Arguments - **IP Derivative Market Potential**: The market is driven by rising GDP per capita and increasing demand for spiritual consumption, with emotional, social, and collectible values propelling industry growth [1][5] - **Bubble Mart's Growth**: Expected revenue of 30 billion yuan and profit of 10 billion yuan this year, with projections of 45 to 50 billion yuan in revenue and 15 to 17 billion yuan in profit in the coming years. The company is expanding its product matrix and global market presence [1][7] - **Blucor's Short-term Decline**: The recent drop in Blucor's stock price presents a buying opportunity, with a focus on expanding its IP offerings to girls and adults, potentially increasing revenue to 8 to 10 billion yuan [1][8][9] - **Tobacco Industry Shift**: The global tobacco industry is transitioning to new tobacco products due to the decline of traditional cigarettes, with major companies like Philip Morris and British American Tobacco increasing investments in this area [1][12][13] Additional Important Insights - **Export Sector**: Companies like Jiangxin Home have significant growth potential in the U.S. market, with a focus on brand recognition and global market expansion [1][24] - **Packaging Industry**: Yutong Technology and Yongxin Co. are highlighted for their high dividend yields and international expansion strategies, with Yutong aiming for a balanced domestic and international sales ratio [1][22] - **Paper Industry Outlook**: The paper industry is currently at a historical low in pricing, with expectations for demand recovery in the coming years, particularly for companies like Sun Paper [1][21] - **Environmental Packaging**: New companies in the environmental packaging sector, such as Zhongxin Co., are emerging, with potential for significant growth if new production capacities are realized [1][25] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, providing insights into the light industry, new consumption trends, and specific company performances and strategies.