西南证券发布研报称，2025年轻工板块业绩平淡，顺周期及传统制造估值承压，包装、出口、个护板块 表现分化。2026年重点关注四条主线：1）低估值顺周期（如造纸）迎底部反转；2）需求强、产能布局 优的出口标的；3）国货个护品牌持续成长；4）AI眼镜、新型烟草等新消费赛道延续高景气。 推荐标的：太阳纸业、博汇纸业、稳健医疗、百亚股份、诺邦股份、依依股份、梦百合、顾家家居。 风险提示：地产竣工不及预期的风险；终端需求疲弱的风险；原材料价格波动的风险；汇率波动的风 险。 回顾2025年，在业绩表现相对平淡的背景下，轻工板块中传统顺周期和传统制造公司的估值依然受到压 制。而包装印刷等板块受益于提价落地（金属包装）和跨界转型等因素，股价表现较好。出口板块在关 税政策扰动下出现一定程度分化，其中多产能布局均衡、需求韧性强、受关税影响小的标的表现较好。 个护板块在上半年有超额收益，下半年受电商渠道竞争加剧的影响，进入估值消化期，但国货品牌受益 于产品结构优化和渠道扩张，中长期成长逻辑有望持续兑现。 2026年选股思路 一方面关注低估顺周期资产在大宗周期变化下估值修复，逐步兑现配置价值；另一方面不断平衡新消费 及出口板块的估值 ...

思摩尔国际 20260108 摘要 思摩尔国际正经历从电子雾化烟到 HNB 技术平台型公司的转型，与英美 烟草等合作，共同推进新型烟草产品，旨在应对传统卷烟市场下滑趋势。 全球传统卷烟市场持续萎缩，新型烟草被视为破局关键。菲莫国际率先 转型，英美烟草和日本烟草也设定了积极的新型烟草发展目标，预示行 业加速发展。 新型烟草主要分为雾化电子烟、加热不燃烧（HNB）和口含式产品。 HNB 和口含式产品更适合传统烟草巨头发展，雾化电子烟市场已被中国 企业主导。 思摩尔国际在 HNB 领域与英美烟草合作，新产品在日本、意大利和波兰 等市场市占率稳步提升，显示出良好的市场表现和增长潜力。 市场对思摩尔国际的估值相对保守，未来 1-2 年的增长弹性主要来自 HNB 业务的估值扩张，若 2026 年销量达 100 亿支以上，将带来质的 飞跃。 思摩尔国际旗下美国子公司专注于医疗雾化领域，已申请 FDA 认证，每 年投入大量研发费用，预计三年内将在收入和商业模式上实现落地，成 为新的增长点。 传统电子雾化烟市场企稳，预计未来保持 10%以上的年化增长率。思摩 尔国际具备传统电子雾化烟企稳、高潜力品类加热不燃烧以及新兴医疗 雾化 ...

（文章来源：证券日报） "上述投资事项对公司现有业务无协同性，对公司2025年经营业绩影响较小，相关产业发展仍处早期， 未来收益存在较大不确定性。公司郑重提示广大投资者注意股票市场交易风险，审慎决策，理性投 资。"顺灏股份在公告中表示。 公开资料显示，顺灏股份业务涉及特种防伪环保纸、印刷品、新型烟草、工业大麻四大产业。子公司广 泛分布于上海、香港、深圳、广东、福建、湖北、云南、安徽、海南等国内重要地区，并延伸布局至美 国、日本、柬埔寨，业务范围遍及全球。2025年前三季度，顺灏股份实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润 6731.90万元，同比增长20.29%。 2025年6月份，顺灏股份以1.1亿元投资轨道辰光，持股比例为19.30%。轨道辰光的主要业务是通过将算 力卫星发射至晨昏轨道，组建太空数据中心，为客户提供算力服务，其经营范围包括卫星技术综合应用 系统集成、卫星导航服务、卫星移动通信终端制造、卫星移动通信终端销售等。 近期，随着商业航天被纳入国家航天发展总体布局，作为AI与航天交叉融合的前沿领域，太空算力正 成为市场关注的焦点。深圳华道研究咨询有限公司合伙人王志球对《证券日报》记者表示，当前，算力 正加速渗 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shunhao Co., Ltd. has experienced a significant stock price increase, with a cumulative rise of over 110% in 11 trading days, leading to a market capitalization of 16.9 billion yuan. However, the company has issued a warning regarding the lack of synergy between its existing business and its investment in Beijing Trajectory Chuang Technology Co., Ltd. [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Shunhao Co., Ltd. operates in four main industries: special anti-counterfeiting environmentally friendly paper, printing products, new tobacco, and industrial hemp. Its subsidiaries are located in key regions across China and have extended operations to the United States, Japan, and Cambodia [2]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, Shunhao Co., Ltd. reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 67.319 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.29% [2]. Group 2: Investment in Trajectory Chuang - In June 2025, Shunhao Co., Ltd. invested 110 million yuan in Trajectory Chuang, acquiring a 19.3% stake. Trajectory Chuang's primary business involves launching computing satellites into the twilight orbit to establish a space data center, providing computing services to clients [2]. - The space computing sector is gaining attention as commercial aerospace is integrated into national space development plans. However, it is noted that space computing is still in the early stages of technological validation and industrial cultivation, requiring time for maturity and large-scale commercialization [2]. Group 3: Risks and Challenges - The announcement from Shunhao Co., Ltd. highlighted that the business of Trajectory Chuang does not create synergies with its existing operations and is subject to various risks, including macroeconomic factors, industry policies, and market environment changes. The commercial value of Trajectory Chuang's "Tianshu Tiansuan" business may only become clear in the next five years, while its "Dishu Tiansuan" business may take 5 to 10 years to compete effectively with ground data centers [1]. - The company emphasized that the investment in Trajectory Chuang would have a minimal impact on its operating performance by 2025, and the development of related industries remains in the early stages, with significant uncertainty regarding future returns [1].

顺灏股份围绕特种环保纸研发生产及销售、印刷品研发生产及销售、工业大麻精深加工及应用场景研 发、新型烟草研发生产与销售等业务展开。今年8月，公司拟筹划在境外发行股份并在香港联交所主板 上市，以积极响应国家加快发展新质生产力政策号召，促进业务转型，依托控股股东境外市场优势，深 化全球化战略布局，提升综合竞争力和海外品牌形象，开拓海外市场。 声明：本内容由AI生成，数据资料来自于交易所及第三方公开信息，仅供参考，不构成投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 交易所数据显示，顺灏股份2025年12月8日9时25分涨幅为10.00%，7个交易日内录得6个涨停，最新价 13.09元，总市值138.75亿元，封板资金9.88亿元，成交额0.40亿元，换手率0.29%。 市场炒作点集中在公司的商业航天赛道布局。今年6月，顺灏股份以1.1亿元投资北京轨道辰光科技有限 公司，持股比例19.30%，该公司专注于算力卫星发射及太空数据中心建设，业务涵盖卫星技术应用、 导航服务、卫星通信终端制造与销售等，此举使公司切入商业航天领域；同时近期商业航天板块受政策 及行业事件影响热度较高，进一步引发市场关注。 消息面上，国家航天局近期印发《国家航天局推 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Jinjia Group, is facing significant financial challenges, including a series of judicial auctions of its shares due to legal disputes and declining performance metrics [1][3]. Group 1: Share Auction and Ownership - Jinjia Chuangtou, the controlling shareholder, had 43.4 million shares (2.99% of total shares) go unsold in a judicial auction held from November 25 to 26, 2025 [1]. - Prior to this, 37.27 million shares (2.57% of total shares) were successfully auctioned for a total of 156 million yuan [1]. - A total of 95.67 million shares (6.59% of total shares) are subject to judicial auction, with 37.27 million shares sold, 43.4 million shares unsold, and 15 million shares scheduled for auction on December 2, 2025 [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The company's revenue has been declining, with figures of 5.189 billion yuan in 2022, 3.945 billion yuan in 2023 (down 23.96%), and 2.857 billion yuan in 2024 (down 27.58%) [3]. - Net profit has also decreased significantly, from 197 million yuan in 2022 to 71.985 million yuan in 2024, marking a decline of 80.64% and 39.19% respectively [3]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.894 billion yuan (down 13.43%) and a net profit of 144 million yuan (down 39.23%) [3]. Group 3: Company Overview - Jinjia Group specializes in the production and sale of premium paper packaging, laser paper/membrane, electronic materials, and new tobacco products [2].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement reveals that the controlling shareholder of Jinjia Co., Ltd. has auctioned 37.27 million shares, accounting for 2.57% of the total share capital, for a total of 156 million yuan, without affecting the company's control or governance structure [1][3]. Group 1: Auction Details - The auction took place on November 17-18, 2025, on JD.com’s judicial auction platform, with a total transaction amount of 156 million yuan [1]. - The auction included 10 lots, with winning bids ranging from 15,430,968 yuan to 15,767,888 yuan [1][2]. - The winning bidders included individuals and Zhejiang Hangmin Keer Textile Co., Ltd. [2]. Group 2: Shareholding Changes - Following the auction, the controlling shareholder's stake will decrease from 31.90% to 29.33%, while the combined stake of the controlling shareholder and its concerted parties will drop from 34.62% to 32.05% [3]. - The company has additional shares (58.4 million) that may also be subject to judicial enforcement, representing 4.02% of the total share capital [3]. Group 3: Company Performance - Jinjia Co., Ltd. has experienced a decline in net profit over three consecutive years, with decreases of 80.64%, 40.03%, and 39.19% from 2022 to 2024 [3]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.894 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 13.43%, and a net profit of 144 million yuan, down 39.23% year-on-year [3]. - The company's stock price was reported at 4.62 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 6.707 billion yuan as of November 18 [4].

Group 1: Food and Beverage Industry - The core investment strategy emphasizes growth first, with supply and demand clearing leading to a turning point. The white wine sector is accelerating its clearing process, while consumer goods show strong resilience [2] - The white wine market is experiencing a significant adjustment, with sales bottoming out and inventory clearing accelerating. The current adjustment cycle is longer compared to previous cycles, indicating a U-shaped recovery rather than a V-shaped one [2] - Beer and beverage sectors are stable, with beer prices and sales remaining steady. The beverage industry shows strong resilience, particularly among leading brands driven by major products [2][3] Group 2: Consumer Goods - The consumer goods sector is stabilizing, with certain industries like food ingredients and health products still in a growth phase. There is a notable divergence within the sector, with seasoning products performing relatively well [3] Group 3: Beauty and Personal Care - The beauty and personal care industry is witnessing a stable demand environment, with a slight recovery in foreign investment. The cosmetics retail sector showed a year-on-year growth of 3.9% in the first nine months of 2025, slightly lagging behind the overall retail market [7] - The brand landscape is changing, with domestic brands experiencing a slowdown in replacement trends, while foreign brands like L'Oréal and Estée Lauder are recovering in the Chinese market [7] Group 4: Social Services and Retail - The service consumption sector is expected to benefit from new policies aimed at expanding service consumption, with education and tea/coffee sectors showing significant growth potential [10] - Emotional value and experiential consumption are driving rapid growth in certain segments, particularly in the IP toy industry, which is still in a high growth phase [11] Group 5: Home Appliances - The home appliance industry is transitioning to a post-subsidy era, with domestic demand recovering slowly. The industry is expected to undergo significant consolidation before stronger market leaders emerge [15] - Companies with advantageous overseas layouts and those actively seeking business model transformations are expected to perform well [16] Group 6: Agriculture - The pet market is experiencing robust growth, with domestic brands gaining traction. The pet food market is steadily growing, driven by increased consumer willingness to spend on pets [26] - The planting sector is focusing on innovation, particularly in seed development and specialty crops [26] Group 7: Pharmaceuticals - The pharmaceutical industry is seeing opportunities in innovative drugs, particularly in oncology and metabolic fields, with a focus on next-generation treatments [29][30] - The demand for CXO services is gradually recovering, with a focus on performance certainty in the domestic market [31] Group 8: Banking - The banking sector is expected to see stable performance in 2026, with net profit growth driven by wealth management and retail lending [67][68] - The focus is on identifying banks with strong growth potential and those that can leverage retail and international business opportunities [62][69]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key stocks in the financial and manufacturing sectors, including Yuexiu Property, New China Life Insurance, Nanjing Bank, and others [13][18][19][25][35][42]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in industrial profits, with August showing a significant year-on-year profit growth of 20.4%, although revenue growth remains modest at 1.9% [10]. - The real estate sector is under pressure, but there is potential for policy easing to create trading opportunities, particularly for quality developers with low inventory [11]. - Non-bank financials are expected to maintain high growth in Q3, driven by market enthusiasm and performance of leading stocks [14]. - The banking sector is viewed positively, especially for quality city commercial banks, which are expected to offer stable dividends and growth [17]. - The new energy sector is identified as having established a bottom, with a focus on technological advancements and market demand recovery [20]. - The machinery sector is transitioning from traditional industries to growth segments, with a focus on companies with dual growth curves [27]. - The military industry is seen as promising, with investment opportunities in military trade, internal equipment, and civilian conversion [33]. - The light industry is expected to benefit from new consumption trends and overseas growth, with an emphasis on high dividend and low valuation stocks [36]. - The environmental sector presents various investment opportunities across absolute returns, growth, and aggressive strategies [43]. Summary by Sections Macro Overview - The report emphasizes the resilience of demand in Q4, with industrial profit growth driven by state-owned enterprise investment returns [10]. Real Estate - The report notes increasing downward pressure on housing prices in core cities, but anticipates potential policy support for quality developers [11][12]. Non-Bank Financials - The sector is expected to continue its high growth trend, with a focus on leading stocks and insurance companies benefiting from improved return on equity [14][16]. Banking - Quality city commercial banks are highlighted as attractive investments due to their stable earnings and dividend yields [17][18][19]. New Energy - The report identifies a stable outlook for the new energy sector, particularly in solar and storage technologies, with a focus on leading companies [20][23][25][26]. Machinery - The machinery sector is transitioning to growth areas, with recommendations for companies that show strong growth potential [27][30][31]. Military - Investment opportunities are identified in military trade and technology, with a focus on companies leading in military aircraft and related technologies [33][34]. Light Industry - The report highlights growth potential in new consumption and overseas markets, with a focus on companies with strong operational capabilities [36][38][39]. Environmental - The environmental sector is seen as having multiple investment opportunities, particularly in waste management and water services [43][44][50].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the recent interest rate cut in the US and expected demand improvement could catalyze growth in sectors such as smart glasses and new tobacco products [2][3] - The report emphasizes the potential for export recovery due to the interest rate cut, which is expected to benefit companies with strong overseas production capabilities [2][4] - The smart glasses sector is seeing product improvements and optimization of industry pain points, which may lead to high growth in sales [3][4] Summary by Sections Pulp and Paper - Supply disruptions in pulp continue, with UPM extending maintenance at its Kaukas pulp mill until October 11, 2025, impacting production [2] - Price adjustments for various types of pulp are noted, with expectations of price increases from paper companies in Q4 [2] Exports - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to lead to a gradual recovery in interest-sensitive sectors like real estate and home consumption [2] - Companies with robust overseas production are anticipated to show greater resilience and improved export orders [2][4] New Tobacco - Increased competition in Japan's heated tobacco market is noted, with major players reducing prices to enhance market share [2][3] - The report anticipates growth in sales of new tobacco products, particularly in Europe and North America [3] Smart Glasses - Meta's launch of new AI smart glasses with improved features is expected to enhance market appeal and sales [3] - The report suggests that the industry may see high growth in sales due to these advancements [3] Packaging - The report discusses the strong overseas expansion of packaging leaders, with expectations of increased profitability [2] - Companies are focusing on high-margin clients and expanding their overseas production capabilities [2] Gold and Jewelry - The report notes a positive outlook for traditional jewelry brands despite challenges from rising gold prices [2] - Companies are expected to adapt their strategies to maintain sales growth [2] Two-Wheel Vehicles - The electric three-wheeler market is seen as having growth potential, with new product launches from leading companies [2] - The report highlights strategic partnerships aimed at enhancing performance in the electric motorcycle segment [2] E-commerce - The report indicates that cross-border e-commerce sellers are expected to maintain stable performance, with a focus on optimizing operations [2] - The upcoming holiday season is anticipated to drive sales growth [4] Pet Products - The pet industry is expected to maintain a positive trend, with new high-end products being introduced [2] - Companies are focusing on brand development to enhance market presence [4] IP Retail - The report highlights the strong performance of brands like Pop Mart in the global market, with plans for further expansion [2] - New product launches are expected to drive sales during the upcoming holiday season [4] Maternal and Child Products - Recent government policies aimed at boosting birth rates are expected to benefit the maternal and child retail sector [5] - Leading companies are positioned to capitalize on these policy changes [5]