联合研究丨组合推荐 [Table_Title] 金融制造行业 10 月投资观点及金股推荐 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 长江金融行业（地产、非银、银行）和制造行业（电新、机械、军工、轻工、环保）2025 年 10 月投资观点及金股推荐。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 邬博华 于博 赵智勇 SAC：S0490514040001 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490517110001 SFC：BQK482 SFC：BUX667 SFC：BRP550 王贺嘉 蔡方羿 徐科 SAC：S0490520110004 SAC：S0490516060001 SAC：S0490517090001 SFC：BUX462 SFC：BUV463 SFC：BUV415 刘义 吴一凡 马祥云 SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490519080007 SAC：S0490521120002 SFC：BUV416 SFC：BUV596 SFC：BUT916 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the recent interest rate cut in the US and expected demand improvement could catalyze growth in sectors such as smart glasses and new tobacco products [2][3] - The report emphasizes the potential for export recovery due to the interest rate cut, which is expected to benefit companies with strong overseas production capabilities [2][4] - The smart glasses sector is seeing product improvements and optimization of industry pain points, which may lead to high growth in sales [3][4] Summary by Sections Pulp and Paper - Supply disruptions in pulp continue, with UPM extending maintenance at its Kaukas pulp mill until October 11, 2025, impacting production [2] - Price adjustments for various types of pulp are noted, with expectations of price increases from paper companies in Q4 [2] Exports - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to lead to a gradual recovery in interest-sensitive sectors like real estate and home consumption [2] - Companies with robust overseas production are anticipated to show greater resilience and improved export orders [2][4] New Tobacco - Increased competition in Japan's heated tobacco market is noted, with major players reducing prices to enhance market share [2][3] - The report anticipates growth in sales of new tobacco products, particularly in Europe and North America [3] Smart Glasses - Meta's launch of new AI smart glasses with improved features is expected to enhance market appeal and sales [3] - The report suggests that the industry may see high growth in sales due to these advancements [3] Packaging - The report discusses the strong overseas expansion of packaging leaders, with expectations of increased profitability [2] - Companies are focusing on high-margin clients and expanding their overseas production capabilities [2] Gold and Jewelry - The report notes a positive outlook for traditional jewelry brands despite challenges from rising gold prices [2] - Companies are expected to adapt their strategies to maintain sales growth [2] Two-Wheel Vehicles - The electric three-wheeler market is seen as having growth potential, with new product launches from leading companies [2] - The report highlights strategic partnerships aimed at enhancing performance in the electric motorcycle segment [2] E-commerce - The report indicates that cross-border e-commerce sellers are expected to maintain stable performance, with a focus on optimizing operations [2] - The upcoming holiday season is anticipated to drive sales growth [4] Pet Products - The pet industry is expected to maintain a positive trend, with new high-end products being introduced [2] - Companies are focusing on brand development to enhance market presence [4] IP Retail - The report highlights the strong performance of brands like Pop Mart in the global market, with plans for further expansion [2] - New product launches are expected to drive sales during the upcoming holiday season [4] Maternal and Child Products - Recent government policies aimed at boosting birth rates are expected to benefit the maternal and child retail sector [5] - Leading companies are positioned to capitalize on these policy changes [5]

Group 1: Investor Relations Activity - The investor relations activity was an earnings briefing held on September 19, 2025, from 15:00 to 17:00 via an online platform [2] - The meeting was attended by key company executives, including Chairman and CEO Wang Zhenglin, CFO Shen Bin, and Secretary of the Board Du Yunbo [2] Group 2: Key Questions and Responses - The company is actively discussing the H-share listing with relevant intermediaries, but specific details have not been finalized [2] - For new tobacco brands, investors were directed to the company's periodic reports for information on market breakthroughs [2] - The first experimental satellite is expected to launch by the end of 2025, subject to external factors [3] - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 186 million yuan from aluminum-plated paper products, with normal production conditions [3] - The company acknowledged a market value decrease of over 2 billion yuan in the past month and stated it would manage its market value based on market dynamics and financial arrangements [3]

Core Viewpoint - Shunhao Co., Ltd. is actively preparing for the launch of its first experimental satellite, expected by the end of 2025, although the exact date may vary due to external factors such as approvals and launch site scheduling [1] Company Overview - Shunhao Co., Ltd. is a high-tech enterprise engaged in the research, manufacturing, and sales of environmentally friendly packaging materials [1] - The company operates in four main business areas: research, production, and sales of specialty eco-friendly paper; research, production, and sales of printed products; deep processing of industrial hemp and application scenario development; and research, production, and sales of new tobacco products [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong revenue growth and stable profits for the first half of 2025, driven by the import and export of tobacco leaf products, as well as cigarette exports, while increasing shareholder returns through dividends [1][2][4]. Revenue Summary - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 10.32 billion, representing an 18.5% increase year-on-year [1]. - Tobacco leaf imports generated revenue of HKD 8.40 billion, up 23.5%, with an import volume of 97,900 tons, a 2.5% increase, and an average import price of HKD 8.58 million per ton, up 20.5% [1]. - Tobacco leaf exports saw revenue of HKD 1.16 billion, a 25.9% increase, with an export volume of 38,500 tons, up 12.7%, and an average export price of HKD 30,000 per ton, up 11.7% [2]. - Cigarette exports generated revenue of HKD 550 million, a slight increase of 0.8%, with an export volume of 1.019 billion sticks, down 7.9%, and an average export price of HKD 0.54 per stick, up 9.4% [2]. Profitability Summary - The net profit for the first half of 2025 was HKD 706 million, reflecting a 9.8% increase, with a gross margin of 9.2%, down 1.9 percentage points [1]. - The gross margin for tobacco leaf imports was 8.2%, down 2.8 percentage points, primarily due to increased costs from CBT-sourced tobacco exceeding sales price increases [1]. - The gross margin for tobacco leaf exports improved to 5.5%, up 2.4 percentage points, due to enhanced pricing strategies and market expansion efforts [2]. - The gross margin for cigarette exports increased to 25.7%, up 3.5 percentage points, despite a decline in export volume [2]. Dividend and Future Outlook - The company proposed an interim dividend of HKD 0.19 per share, representing a 27% increase [1]. - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been raised, with expected net profits of HKD 940 million, HKD 1.04 billion, and HKD 1.18 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 9.6%, 11.4%, and 12.9% respectively [4]. - The diluted EPS is projected to be HKD 1.35, HKD 1.51, and HKD 1.70 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 27, 25, and 22 [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company reported a strong revenue growth of 18.5% year-on-year, reaching HKD 10.32 billion in the first half of 2025, with a net profit increase of 9.8% to HKD 706 million [1][2] - The revenue growth was primarily driven by the import and export of tobacco leaf products and cigarette exports, while the net profit increase was attributed to improved profitability in cigarette and tobacco leaf exports, alongside a significant reduction in financing costs by 28% [1] - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of HKD 0.19 per share, representing a 27% increase [1] Revenue Breakdown - Tobacco Leaf Imports: Revenue increased by 23.5% to HKD 8.4 billion, with an import volume of 97,900 tons (+2.5%) and an average import price of HKD 85,800 per ton (+20.5%). The gross margin decreased to 8.2% due to cost increases outpacing sales price increases [1] - Tobacco Leaf Exports: Revenue rose by 25.9% to HKD 1.16 billion, with an export volume of 38,500 tons (+12.7%) and an average export price of HKD 30,000 per ton (+11.7%). The gross margin improved to 5.5% [2] - Cigarette Exports: Revenue increased by 0.8% to HKD 550 million, with an export volume of 1.019 billion sticks (-7.9%) and an average export price of HKD 0.54 per stick (+9.4%). The gross margin improved to 25.7% [2] - New Tobacco Exports: Revenue fell by 66.5% to HKD 15 million, with an export volume of 81 million sticks (-65.4%) and an average export price of HKD 0.18 per stick (-3.0%). The gross margin remained at 5.5% [3] - Brazilian Operations: Revenue decreased by 50.3% to HKD 195 million, with an export volume of 7,900 tons (-34.8%) and an average export price of HKD 24,600 per ton (-23.8%). The gross margin improved to 27.4% [3] Financial Forecasts - The company has raised its profit forecasts, expecting net profits of HKD 940 million, HKD 1.04 billion, and HKD 1.18 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 9.6%, 11.4%, and 12.9% [1][4] - The diluted EPS is projected to be HKD 1.35, HKD 1.51, and HKD 1.70 for the same years, with corresponding PE ratios of 27, 25, and 22 times [1][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company reported a strong revenue growth of 18.5% year-on-year, reaching HKD 10.32 billion in the first half of 2025, with a net profit increase of 9.8% to HKD 706 million [1][2] - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by the import and export of tobacco leaf products, as well as cigarette exports, while the net profit growth is attributed to improved profitability in cigarette and tobacco leaf exports and a significant reduction in financing costs by 28% [1][2] - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of HKD 0.19 per share, representing a 27% increase [1] Revenue Breakdown - Tobacco Leaf Imports: Revenue increased by 23.5% to HKD 8.4 billion, with an import volume of 97,900 tons (+2.5%) and an average import price of HKD 85,800 per ton (+20.5%). The gross margin decreased to 8.2% due to cost increases outpacing sales price increases [1] - Tobacco Leaf Exports: Revenue rose by 25.9% to HKD 1.16 billion, with export volume of 38,500 tons (+12.7%) and an average export price of HKD 30,000 per ton (+11.7%). The gross margin improved to 5.5% [2] - Cigarette Exports: Revenue increased by 0.8% to HKD 550 million, with export volume declining by 7.9% to 1.019 billion sticks, while the average export price rose by 9.4% to HKD 0.54 per stick. The gross margin improved to 25.7% [2] - New Tobacco Exports: Revenue fell by 66.5% to HKD 15 million, with export volume down by 65.4% to 81 million sticks, primarily due to geopolitical conflicts and regulatory changes [3] - Brazilian Operations: Revenue decreased by 50.3% to HKD 195 million, with export volume down by 34.8% to 7,900 tons, affected by extreme weather and product mix changes [3] Financial Forecasts - The company has raised its profit forecasts, expecting net profits of HKD 940 million, HKD 1.04 billion, and HKD 1.18 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 9.6%, 11.4%, and 12.9% [1][4] - The diluted EPS is projected to be HKD 1.35, HKD 1.51, and HKD 1.70 for the same years, with corresponding P/E ratios of 27, 25, and 22 [1][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company reported a strong revenue growth of 18.5% year-on-year, reaching HKD 10.32 billion in the first half of 2025, with a net profit increase of 9.8% to HKD 706 million [1][2] - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by the import and export of tobacco leaf products and cigarette exports, while the net profit increase is attributed to improved profitability in cigarette and tobacco leaf exports, alongside a significant reduction in financing costs by 28% [1][2] - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of HKD 0.19 per share, reflecting a 27% increase [1] Revenue Breakdown - Tobacco Leaf Imports: Revenue increased by 23.5% to HKD 8.4 billion, with an import volume of 97,900 tons (+2.5%) and an average import price of HKD 85,800 per ton (+20.5%). The gross margin decreased to 8.2% due to cost increases outpacing sales price increases [1] - Tobacco Leaf Exports: Revenue rose by 25.9% to HKD 1.16 billion, with export volume of 38,500 tons (+12.7%) and an average export price of HKD 30,000 per ton (+11.7%). The gross margin improved to 5.5% [2] - Cigarette Exports: Revenue slightly increased by 0.8% to HKD 550 million, with export volume declining by 7.9% to 1.019 billion sticks, while the average export price rose by 9.4% to HKD 0.54 per stick. The gross margin improved to 25.7% [2] - New Tobacco Exports: Revenue fell by 66.5% to HKD 15 million, with export volume down by 65.4% to 81 million sticks, primarily due to geopolitical conflicts and regulatory changes [3] - Brazilian Operations: Revenue decreased by 50.3% to HKD 195 million, with export volume down by 34.8% to 7,900 tons, affected by extreme weather and product mix changes [3] Financial Forecasts - The company has raised its profit forecasts, expecting net profits of HKD 940 million, HKD 1.04 billion, and HKD 1.18 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 9.6%, 11.4%, and 12.9% [1][4] - The diluted EPS is projected to be HKD 1.35, HKD 1.51, and HKD 1.70 for the same years, with corresponding P/E ratios of 27, 25, and 22 [1][4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong 1H25 performance with revenue increasing by 18.5% to HKD 10.32 billion and net profit rising by 9.8% to HKD 710 million, exceeding expectations due to favorable import/export dynamics and product structure optimization [1] Revenue Breakdown - Leaf import revenue grew by 23.5%, with import volume and average price increasing by 2.5% and 20.5% respectively, benefiting from a higher proportion of premium leaf [1] - Leaf export revenue increased by 25.9%, with export volume and average price rising by 12.7% and 11.7% respectively, driven by new customer acquisition and product structure optimization [1] - Cigarette export revenue grew by 0.8%, with sales volume declining by 7.9% and average price increasing by 9.4%, impacted by shipment timing [1] - New tobacco revenue decreased by 66.4%, with sales volume and average price dropping by 65.4% and 3.1% respectively, due to supply chain and regulatory challenges [1] - Brazilian business revenue fell by 50.3%, with sales volume and average price decreasing by 34.8% and 23.8% respectively, affected by climate conditions and shipment timing [1] Profitability Metrics - The company's gross margin for 1H25 was 9.2%, a decline of 1.9 percentage points, with leaf export gross margin increasing by 2.4 percentage points due to pricing strategy optimization [1] - The gross margin for cigarette exports improved by 3.5 percentage points due to a higher self-operated ratio, while Brazilian business gross margin increased by 10.2 percentage points from a higher proportion of by-product revenue [1] - The gross margin for leaf imports decreased by 2.8 percentage points due to rising costs from unfavorable climate conditions [1] - The net profit margin for 1H25 was 6.8%, down by 0.5 percentage points [1] Growth Potential - The company is expected to strengthen its international allocation capabilities in leaf imports, maintaining stable growth [1] - The company aims to enhance its tax channel development and introduce self-operated product lines in cigarette exports, with potential growth from a global exclusive distribution agreement for Long Wall cigars with Sichuan Tobacco [1] - The company is likely to seek high-quality acquisition targets aligned with group strategic goals to enhance global competitiveness [1][2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Based on the growth momentum in leaf import/export business, the net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 5% and 8% to HKD 980 million and HKD 1.09 billion respectively [2] - The target price has been increased by 37% to HKD 43, corresponding to 30/27 times P/E for 2025/26, indicating a 13% upside potential from the current stock price [2]

Core Viewpoint - CICC has raised the profit forecast for China Tobacco Hong Kong (06055) for the fiscal year 2025/26 by 5% and 8% to HKD 9.8 billion and HKD 10.9 billion respectively, reflecting the growth momentum in the tobacco leaf import and export business [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue increased by 18.5% to HKD 10.32 billion, and net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 9.8% to HKD 710 million, both exceeding CICC's expectations due to favorable tobacco leaf import shipping schedules and optimized export product structure [2] - The revenue from tobacco leaf imports grew by 23.5%, with import volume and average price increasing by 2.5% and 20.5% respectively, leading to a higher proportion of high-priced tobacco leaves [3] - Tobacco leaf exports saw a revenue increase of 25.9%, with export volume and average price rising by 12.7% and 11.7% respectively, driven by the expansion of new customers and product structure optimization [3] Group 2: Margin Analysis - The company's gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 9.2%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points, with improved gross margins in tobacco leaf exports and self-operated cigarette exports due to pricing strategy optimization [3] - The gross margin for tobacco leaf exports increased by 2.4 percentage points, while the gross margin for self-operated cigarette exports rose by 3.5 percentage points [3] - However, the gross margin for tobacco leaf imports decreased by 2.8 percentage points due to rising costs from unfavorable climate conditions [3] Group 3: Growth Drivers - The company is expected to strengthen its international allocation capabilities in tobacco leaf imports, leading to stable operational growth [4] - The expansion of duty-free channel development and the introduction of self-operated product lines in cigarette exports, along with a global exclusive distribution agreement for Long Wall cigars with Sichuan Tobacco, are anticipated to open up growth opportunities [4] - The company aims to actively seek potential high-quality targets that align with the group's strategic goals to enhance global competitiveness through external mergers and acquisitions [4]