1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating for both the pig and egg sectors: Cautiously bearish [2][5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the pig market is difficult to change. However, in the medium and long - term, attention should be paid to the reduction of pig production capacity and national policy changes. For the egg market, short - term consumption demand is strong due to the double festivals, but the impact of cold - storage eggs entering the market should be monitored [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2511 contract was 13,000 yuan/ton, a change of - 160.00 yuan/ton (- 1.22%) from the previous trading day. - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 12.94 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.23 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 13.21 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.18 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 12.66 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.10 yuan/kg. - Wholesale prices: On September 17, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 117.87, down 0.13 points from the previous day. The average wholesale price of pork was 19.73 yuan/kg, down 0.8% [1] Market Analysis - The weight - reducing slaughter of large - scale pig farms has weakened the festival's boosting effect. In the short - term, the supply - demand imbalance persists, while long - term factors include the reduction of sow production capacity and policy changes [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [2] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2511 contract was 3116 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of + 3.00 yuan (+ 0.10%) from the previous trading day. - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg price was 3.60 yuan/jin; in Shandong, it was 3.85 yuan/jin; in Hebei, it was 3.53 yuan/jin. - Inventory: On September 17, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 0.5 days, unchanged from the previous day, and the circulation - link inventory was 0.74 days, an increase of 0.14 days (23.33%) [3] Market Analysis - After the egg price increase, terminal consumption and trading are smooth, and inventory is being cleared. Overall demand is still strong due to the festivals, but the impact of cold - storage eggs entering the market should be noted [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]

Group 1 - Pork stocks experienced a decline in the afternoon trading session on September 18, with Bangji Technology dropping over 5% [2] - Aonong Biological and Tiankang Biological both fell by more than 4% [2] - Zhenghong Technology and Xinwufeng also followed the downward trend [2]

宏观：美联储如期降息 【市场资讯】1）美联储如期降息 25 基点，强调就业下行风险，认为通胀有所上升，预计 年内还降息两次、明年降息一次，米兰投下唯一反对票、主张降息 50 基点。鲍威尔：本次 属风险管理型降息，50 基点降息呼声不高，就业下行成为实质性风险。"新美联储通讯社"： 对就业市场放缓的担忧压倒了对通胀的担忧，为美联储转向小幅降息提供理由。2）美财长 被曝和美联储理事库克同款"污点"：有类似的抵押贷款申报。3）美国 SEC 重磅新政：为集 体诉讼设限，旨在"让美国 IPO 再次伟大"。4）加拿大央行如期降息 25 基点，几乎没有提 供未来降息指引，称在风险中谨慎行事。5）李家超：探索缩短股票结算周期至 T+1，落实 稳定币发行人制度，建造区域黄金储备枢纽。施政报告专家解读：香港全力发展成为国际 创新科技中心。 【核心逻辑】国内方面，从今年的政策导向来看，我国对消费领域的重视程度正与日俱增。 政策转向的背后是由于收入分配层面的失衡，使得国内有效需求难以充分释放，导致资本 回报率呈现递减趋势。当前年内逐步落地的一系列需求端政策并非终点，后续仍将有更多 民生领域的相关政策逐步出台、落地。商务部等 9 部门 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the EU anti-dumping measures on the prices of imported pork products in China, highlighting significant price increases for imported ribs, heads, and feet, while domestic pork prices remain low due to oversupply and weak demand [1] Group 1: Price Trends - In early September 2025, the price of imported ribs surged, with a maximum daily increase of 4000 yuan per ton due to the EU's anti-dumping ruling [1] - Domestic fresh and frozen pork prices are at record lows, with oversupply in the market leading to a decline in prices [1] - As of September 16, 2025, domestic pork prices are expected to remain low, with a potential slight rebound towards the end of the month due to the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The domestic pork supply is currently abundant, with demand weakening after the back-to-school and Zhongyuan Festival stocking periods [1] - The fourth quarter is anticipated to see a slight increase in domestic fresh pork prices due to the seasonal demand and an increase in suitable weight pig sources [1] - Import volumes for pork and by-products are expected to remain high, with a reported 626,400 tons of pork imported from January to July 2025, a 4.11% increase compared to the same period last year [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - The report suggests that the pig price will experience a period of volatile adjustment. The supply of pigs is expected to increase gradually until December, which will limit significant price increases. However, the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to strengthen seasonally, providing some support to the pig price. If the price remains weak, a negative cycle may form, but the pig price may rebound at the end of the year. In this case, an inverse spread strategy between the 11 - 01 contracts can be considered [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On September 17, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 428 lots. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the change in the slaughter weight of live pigs. The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) added 9,219 lots in positions today, with a total position of about 94,100 lots. The highest price was 13,160 yuan/ton, the lowest was 12,995 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,000 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. Based on the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the price difference between fat pigs and standard pigs may strengthen. The market has both bearish and bullish logics. The bearish factors include slow and difficult weight reduction by farmers, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices in September and October. The bullish factors include weight reduction by farmers benefiting the future market, improved consumption after the weather turns cool, and limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is that the market will be in a volatile adjustment phase. The core logic is that, based on sow and piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, and it is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will weaken farmers' willingness to reduce weight and support pig prices. If the weak price continues, a negative cycle may form. If this cycle occurs, the pig price is expected to rebound at the end of the year, and an inverse spread strategy between the 11 - 01 contracts can be considered (for reference only, not an investment recommendation) [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On September 17, the national average live pig slaughter price was 12.95 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.13 yuan/kg or 0.99% from the previous day. The slaughter price in Henan was 13.04 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg or 1.14%. In Sichuan, it was 12.64 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg or 0.78%. Among the futures prices, the 01 contract was 13,510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170 yuan/ton or 1.24%; the 03 contract remained unchanged at 13,005 yuan/ton; the 05 contract was 13,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton or 0.15%; the 07 contract was 14,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton or 0.42%; the 09 contract was 12,985 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton or 0.88%; the 11 contract was 13,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan/ton or 1.22%. The main basis in Henan was 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton or 33.33% [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking No detailed summary information provided other than the display of data charts, including the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in Henan, the price difference between 11 - 01 contracts, and the price difference between 01 - 03 contracts [14].

Core Viewpoint - The current market for live pigs is characterized by an oversupply situation, with prices near the cost of self-breeding and raising, leading to a support for prices due to retail reluctance to sell at low prices and demand from the upcoming holidays [1][3]. Group 1: Market Overview - In September, supply has concentrated, leading to significant pressure from oversupply, while demand has shown limited recovery, causing a continuous decline in pig prices [3]. - As of September 16, the average price for live pigs was 12.96 yuan/kg, down 0.35 yuan/kg from the previous week, indicating a weak price trend due to increased supply and insufficient demand [4][12]. - The average price for piglets was 25.11 yuan/kg, down 1.81 yuan/kg from the previous week, reflecting a pessimistic outlook from the breeding sector regarding future prices [4][12]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of breeding sows remains high, with a stable inventory of 40.42 million sows as of July 2025, indicating that production capacity is still above normal levels [11]. - As of August 2025, the inventory of breeding sows in large-scale farms was 5.0565 million, showing a slight decrease of 0.83% month-on-month but a year-on-year increase of 1.86% [12]. - The operating rate of key slaughter enterprises was 31.89% as of September 16, showing a slight recovery, but the overall demand remains weak, particularly with the overlapping of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [22]. Group 3: Price and Profitability Analysis - The prices of feed ingredients have continued to decline slightly, with corn averaging 2365.29 yuan/ton and soybean meal at 3067.14 yuan/ton as of September 16 [24]. - The profitability for self-breeding and raising has dropped to 21.12 yuan per head, while losses for externally purchased piglets have increased to 194.81 yuan per head, indicating a challenging environment for pig farming [25].

Core Insights - Recent market trends indicate a significant decline in prices across various sectors, including real estate, automobiles, home appliances, and food products, suggesting a potential consumer opportunity [1][10]. Real Estate Market - As of August 2025, the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities in China is 13,856 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.35% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%, marking the ninth consecutive month of decline [1][4]. - The decline in housing prices is attributed to changes in supply-demand dynamics and demographic shifts, with a notable decrease in the birth rate leading to reduced housing demand [4]. - As of July 2025, the inventory of commercial housing in China stands at approximately 580 million square meters, which is historically high, prompting developers to adopt price reduction strategies to accelerate cash flow [4]. Automotive Market - In July 2025, retail sales of passenger vehicles in China reached 1.775 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.2% but a month-on-month decline of 8.3% [5]. - Over 20 major automotive manufacturers have implemented price cuts on various models, with reductions typically ranging from 10,000 to 30,000 yuan for mid-range vehicles and exceeding 50,000 yuan for some high-end models [5][6]. - The automotive price decline is driven by overcapacity, inventory buildup, and intensified competition, particularly in the electric vehicle sector, where market growth has slowed [5][6]. Home Appliance Market - Average retail prices for major home appliances, including televisions, refrigerators, and washing machines, decreased by 7.6% year-on-year in July and August 2025, with some small appliances seeing price drops of over 15% [7]. - The decline in appliance prices is primarily due to weak demand and inventory pressures, with the retail market for home appliances experiencing a 3.8% year-on-year decline in sales revenue in the first half of 2025 [7]. - Lower raw material costs, particularly for copper and aluminum, have also contributed to the reduction in appliance prices, with copper prices down approximately 12% and aluminum prices down about 8% since the beginning of 2025 [7][8]. Food Market - The average wholesale price of pork in China was 17.8 yuan per kilogram in August 2025, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 9.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 22.3% [8]. - The drop in pork prices is attributed to an increase in supply due to expanded production by farmers in response to previous high prices, alongside a decrease in feed costs [8][10]. Consumer Implications - The current price reductions across these sectors present a rare consumer opportunity, particularly for those looking to purchase homes, vehicles, or appliances [10]. - Consumers are advised to make informed purchasing decisions based on their actual needs and financial situations, rather than succumbing to impulsive buying due to promotional activities [13].

经济观察网 猪肉股午后持续调整，邦基科技一度跌近9%，天域生物、牧原股份、龙大美食等跟跌。 ...

新华财经北京9月17日电 国家级生猪大数据中心监测显示，2025年9月17日，31个省（自治区、直辖 市）外三元生猪价格2涨28跌1平，呈稳中下跌趋势。监测情况显示，当日全国生猪均价为13.41元／公 斤，较昨日下跌0.10元／公斤。北京市白条猪批发交易量为53.62万公斤，较昨日下跌3.23%。 编辑：吴郑思 另外，外三元生猪价差监测显示，17日全国21组大区间平均价差约0.51元／公斤，较昨日下跌0.02元／ 公斤，低于平均调运成本0.54元／公斤。 综合分析来看，养殖端今日出栏环比增加，集团场加速出栏，叠加二育集中释放，供多需少，屠宰企业 压价意愿强烈，养殖户亏损加剧。尽管政策层面召开产能调控座谈会，但市场看空情绪浓厚，预计明日 猪价下跌。 ...

Group 1 - The pork concept sector experienced a decline of 1.40%, ranking among the top declines in the concept sector, with major declines seen in companies like Bangji Technology, Tianyu Biology, and Jin Xin Nong [1][2] - Among the pork concept stocks, only two stocks saw an increase, with Aonong Biological rising by 4.15% and Jingji Zhino increasing by 0.35% [1][2] - The pork concept sector saw a net outflow of 815 million yuan from main funds today, with 24 stocks experiencing net outflows, and 8 stocks seeing outflows exceeding 30 million yuan [2][3] Group 2 - The stock with the highest net outflow was Muyuan Foods, which had a net outflow of 339 million yuan, followed by Wens Foodstuffs, Longda Meat Food, and Juxing Agriculture with net outflows of 106 million yuan, 46.25 million yuan, and 41.97 million yuan respectively [2][3] - The stocks with the highest net inflow included Aonong Biological, Jingji Zhino, and Zhenghong Technology, with net inflows of 26.42 million yuan, 13.40 million yuan, and 10.01 million yuan respectively [2][3] - The top stocks in the pork concept sector by net outflow included Muyuan Foods (-2.02%), Wens Foodstuffs (0.00%), and Longda Meat Food (-2.65%) [2][3]