Core Viewpoint - The report from China Galaxy Securities indicates that the new non-farm employment figures were weaker than expected, with a significant downward revision of 258,000 jobs from previous months, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.25% [1][2][3] Employment Data Summary - New non-farm jobs added in July were 73,000, below the market expectation of 110,000; June's employment was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000, and May's from 144,000 to 19,000, totaling a downward revision of 258,000 jobs [2] - The non-farm hourly wage growth accelerated to 0.33% month-on-month and rose to 3.91% year-on-year [2] - The unemployment rate increased to 4.248% from the previous 4.117%, while the labor participation rate decreased to 62.2% [2] Labor Market Analysis - Concerns about the quality of labor data have emerged, as the significant downward revisions in employment figures for May and June have pushed the three-month average of new jobs into a range that could theoretically support rising unemployment [3] - Despite the weakening labor market, the extent of this weakening may not be sufficient to justify a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [3] - The quality of labor data is deteriorating, which complicates the Federal Reserve's decision-making process regarding interest rates [4] Economic Contribution and Outlook - The labor market's contribution to consumption remains stable, with no significant weakening observed; thus, the unemployment rate may not drop to levels that would compel the Federal Reserve to lower rates before the September FOMC meeting [5] - The report suggests that the probability of the unemployment rate exceeding 4.4% and forcing a rate cut is low, given the current economic conditions [5] Market Reactions - The market has significantly increased its pricing for rate cuts, with expectations for three rate cuts totaling 75 basis points by December 2025 [6] - Major stock indices such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones have experienced notable declines, while the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has decreased significantly [7]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist for China, Zhu Haibin, has left the firm to join the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) as Assistant President for Economic Research, effective October 1, 2025 [1][3] - Zhu Haibin has extensive experience in economic research, holding degrees from Peking University, the People's Bank of China, and Duke University, and has previously worked at the Bank for International Settlements [3] - The HKMA was established on April 1, 1993, and its main functions include maintaining monetary stability, promoting a stable financial system, and managing the Exchange Fund [3] Group 2 - In May, Zhu Haibin raised China's economic growth forecast following Sino-U.S. trade talks, indicating a significant policy adjustment in China [4] - The departure of Zhu Haibin follows a trend of high-level exits in the securities sector, including the resignation of executives from Daiwa Securities and Standard Chartered Securities in July [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent non-farm payroll data indicates a decline in employment market resilience, suggesting a potential for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in September if inflation does not exceed expectations in the coming months [1][5]. Employment Data Analysis - The significant downward revisions of employment numbers for May and June were attributed to seasonal adjustments and new feedback from surveyed companies, with May's employment revised down by 125,000 to 19,000 and June's by 133,000 to 14,000, marking the largest revision since the pandemic [1][2]. - The employment growth is primarily supported by the education and healthcare sectors, with July adding 79,000 jobs in these areas, while other sectors showed negative growth, particularly in leisure, hospitality, and manufacturing, which lost 11,000 jobs [3][4]. Labor Market Dynamics - The duration of unemployment has increased, with a notable rise in the number of individuals receiving unemployment benefits and those unemployed for over 27 weeks since 2025, indicating a growing challenge in job recovery [3][4]. - The labor force participation rate has declined due to reduced immigration, contributing to a lower unemployment rate despite weak job growth, as the labor supply has tightened [4]. Wage Growth and Economic Outlook - Wage growth remains resilient, with average hourly earnings in the private sector increasing both year-on-year and month-on-month in July, alongside a 0.9% rise in the labor cost index for Q2 [4]. - The weak employment data enhances the feasibility of interest rate cuts, with market expectations for rate reductions increasing to approximately 2.7 times within the year, influenced by the recent employment figures and manufacturing PMI [5].

Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission has announced that the construction project list for this year, amounting to 800 billion yuan, has been fully allocated [1] - The third batch of 690 billion yuan in special bonds for consumer goods replacement will be distributed in October, with plans for a fourth batch of the same amount [1] - The focus is on expanding domestic demand and enhancing the resilience of the domestic circulation through high-quality implementation of the "two重" construction projects [1] Group 1 - The "two重" initiatives will continue to support key tasks such as ecological environment protection in the Yangtze River Economic Belt and the construction of public service systems for the urbanization of agricultural transfer populations [1] - The scope of water conservancy support will be expanded to include major irrigation areas and water diversion projects nationwide, along with intercity railway construction in key urban agglomerations [1] - The "two新" initiatives will further broaden the scope of equipment renewal support [1] Group 2 - The effectiveness of the "two重" and "two新" initiatives is attributed to the government's enhanced macro-control foresight, targeting, and effectiveness [1] - The government has strengthened systematic thinking and improved the implementation efficiency of these initiatives [1]

Group 1 - The company will hold its second extraordinary general meeting of shareholders in 2025 on August 22, 2025 [2][17] - The meeting will be conducted using a combination of on-site and online voting methods [2][3] - The on-site meeting will take place at 1:30 PM at Guolian Financial Building, Wuxi, Jiangsu Province [2][15] Group 2 - The online voting system will be the Shanghai Stock Exchange's shareholder meeting online voting system, available from 9:15 AM to 3:00 PM on the day of the meeting [2][3] - Shareholders must complete voting for all proposals before submission [9] - The company has disclosed that there are no special resolutions or related party voting issues for this meeting [7][10]

证券代码：601059 证券简称：信达证券 公告编号：2025-023 信达证券股份有限公司 第六届董事会第十四次会议决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性 陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 信达证券股份有限公司（以下简称公司）第六届董事会第十四次会议于 2025 年 8 月 1 日以现场与视频相结合的方式召开，现场会议设在北京市西城区宣武门 西大街甲 127 号金隅大厦 B 座 16 层 1608 会议室。全体董事一致同意豁免本次 会议提前通知的义务，同意于 2025 年 8 月 1 日召开本次会议。本次会议的通知 和会议资料于 2025 年 8 月 1 日以电子邮件方式发出。 本次会议由董事长艾久超先生召集和主持，应出席董事 6 名，实际出席董事 华民先生以视频方式参会），公司 3 名监事、董事会秘书和全体高级管理人员列 席了会议。本次会议的召集、召开程序符合《中华人民共和国公司法》（以下简 称《公司法》）等法律、行政法规、部门规章、规范性文件和《信达证券股份有 限公司章程》（以下简称《公司章程》）的有关规定。 经审议，本次会议形成如下决 ...

【导读】郑宇正式升任五矿证券董事长 证券业再添一位"80后"一把手。 7月31日，五矿证券召开年中工作会议，郑宇首次以党委书记、董事长、总经理"三职合一"的身份亮 相。 看似一次例行的会议，实则标志着这家背靠中国五矿的券商正式完成权力交接——从2024年年底代行董 事长职责，到2025年7月30日五矿证券内部正式官宣郑宇升任董事长，郑宇的晋升路径清晰可循，也为 证券业再添一位"80后"一把手。 郑宇出生于1982年，现年43岁，是在"五矿体系"成长起来的高管。此前，他在五矿证券母公司五矿资本 （600390）规划发展部、风控审计部均有任职。 郑宇与五矿证券的渊源始于2016年3月。加入五矿证券后，郑宇历任董秘、副总经理；2023年4月升任总 经理；自2024年年底开始代行董事长职务；2025年7月30日，郑宇正式升任董事长。目前，郑宇担任五 矿证券党委书记、董事长、总经理。 据了解，其他"80后"券商董事长还包括：粤开证券董事长郭川舟（1986年出生）、华兴证券董事长王力 行（1981年出生）等。 郑宇在今年年初的年度工作会议中指出，五矿证券正处于转型发展最关键的时期，要对当前存在的不足 保持清醒认识：一是经 ...

来 源 | 九卦金融圈综合 徽商银行是经原中国银监会批准，全国首家由城市商业银行、城市信用社联合组建的银行业金融机构，总部设在安 徽省合肥市。 数据显示，2024年末，徽商银行资产总额突破2万亿元，资产总额同比增长11.49%至20137.53亿元，全年实现营业收 入371.28亿元，同比增长2.1%，实现净利润159.17亿元，同比增长6.18%。 甘肃银行行长拟任券商董事长！ 2025年7月27日，中共甘肃省委组织部发布最新《关于干部任前公示的公告》，公告显示，现任甘肃银行股份有限公 司行长、党委副书记、董事王锡真，拟任省管企业党委书记、董事长。 徽商银行董事长跨省出任厅长 7月31日，徽商银行发布公告称，因工作调动，该行董事长严琛于2025年7月30日辞任该行董事长、执行董事、发展 战略与消费者权益保护委员会主任委员及委员、风险管理委员会主任委员及委员、人事提名和薪酬委员会委员职 务，其辞任自即日起生效。 同日，河南省十四届人大常委会第十八次会议通过，决定任命严琛为河南省工业和信息化厅厅长。原河南省工信厅 厅长李建涛已赴任江西上饶市委副书记、市长候选人。 严琛兼具大型金融机构与地方政务工作经验。据公开消 ...

信达证券公告，公司董事会于2025年7月31日收到董事、总经理祝瑞敏女士的书面辞职报告。因工作调 整原因，祝瑞敏女士申请辞去董事、总经理职务，自书面辞职报告送达董事会时生效。为保证公司经 营、管理工作的正常开展，公司董事会授权副总经理、财务总监、董事会秘书张毅先生代行总经理职 责，授权期限自本次董事会审议通过之日起至董事会聘任新任总经理之日止。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of optimizing position strategies in quantitative frameworks for predicting bond futures, rather than solely focusing on the prediction accuracy of price movements [1][3]. Group 1: Position Strategy Optimization - The study tests various position strategies, including a full position strategy as a benchmark, a threshold-based full position strategy, and a gradual accumulation strategy that incorporates a fuzzy interval filtering mechanism [1][3]. - Continuous trading strategies convert binary probability signals into position adjustment signals, allowing for categorization based on risk preferences, such as risk-seeking, risk-averse, and risk-neutral types [1][3]. Group 2: Model and Market Conditions - The report references a multi-factor model for bond market timing, utilizing recent data to train models for predicting the next trading day, with specific market conditions defined for 2024 and 2025 [2]. - The combination of various position strategies is crucial, particularly in volatile markets, where appropriate strategy selection can significantly enhance overall model performance [3]. Group 3: Performance Insights - Binary full position strategies effectively capture returns during clear trends but come with higher volatility and transaction costs [3]. - Gradual accumulation strategies show lower trading frequency advantages, reducing transaction costs, but may have limited return capture in sideways markets [3]. - Single continuous strategies demonstrate strong performance in volatile markets, with specific strategies like Sigmoid and Atanh showing significant advantages in volatility control, especially for risk-averse investors [3].