Core Viewpoint - Zhongtai Chemical's stock price has shown fluctuations, with a year-to-date increase of 9.74% but a recent decline of 7.98% over the last five trading days [2] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of November 25, Zhongtai Chemical's stock price rose by 2.16% to 4.73 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 215 million CNY and a turnover rate of 1.79%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 12.251 billion CNY [1] - The stock has experienced a year-to-date increase of 9.74%, a decline of 7.98% over the last five trading days, a slight increase of 0.64% over the last 20 days, and a decrease of 3.07% over the last 60 days [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Zhongtai Chemical reported operating revenue of 21.246 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 5.55%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -179 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 48.51% [2] - The company has distributed a total of 2.222 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 259 million CNY distributed over the last three years [3] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of November 10, 2025, Zhongtai Chemical had 91,500 shareholders, an increase of 0.30% from the previous period, with an average of 28,161 circulating shares per shareholder, a decrease of 0.30% [2] - Notable institutional holdings include Dongfanghong New Power Mixed A, which is the sixth-largest circulating shareholder with 12.706 million shares, and Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, the tenth-largest with 9.814 million shares, both of which are new shareholders [3]

氯碱日报 | 2025-11-25 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4496元/吨（+40）；华东基差-56元/吨（-20）;华南基差4元/吨（-20）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4440元/吨（+20）；华南电石法报价4500元/吨（+20）。 PVC底部空间缩窄，烧碱现货跟跌 市场要闻与重要数据 上游生产利润：兰炭价格800元/吨（+0）；电石价格2805元/吨（+0）；电石利润-125元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-848元/吨（-28）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-516元/吨（-25）；PVC出口利润12.9美元/吨（+0.4）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存31.5万吨（-0.7）；PVC社会库存52.7万吨（-0.6）；PVC电石法开工率80.15%（+0.58%）； PVC乙烯法开工率71.31%（+1.18%）；PVC开工率77.48%（+0.77%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量67.6万吨（-2.3）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2241元/吨（+5）；山东32%液碱基差134元/吨（-68）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价760元/吨（-20）；山东50% ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Yinglite has shown fluctuations with a recent increase of 2.08%, while the company has experienced a year-to-date stock price increase of 13.75% but a decline of 5.95% over the last five trading days [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of November 24, Yinglite's stock price is 8.85 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 3.488 billion CNY [1]. - The trading volume reached 99.83 million CNY, with a turnover rate of 3.75% [1]. - The net outflow of main funds was 6.1828 million CNY, with large orders accounting for 6.38% of total buying and 12.57% of total selling [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Yinglite reported operating revenue of 1.28 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 6.97% [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was -247 million CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.07% [2]. Group 3: Business Overview - Yinglite, established on November 12, 1996, and listed on November 20, 1996, is located in Shizuishan, Ningxia [1]. - The company's main business includes the production and sale of calcium carbide, lime nitrogen, dicyandiamide, caustic soda, polyvinyl chloride resin, liquid chlorine, and hydrochloric acid [1]. - The revenue composition of Yinglite's main business includes PVC (52.21%), caustic soda (28.20%), E-PVC (12.83%), and other chemical products [1].

烧碱周报 研究员：李轩怡 期货从业证号：F03108920 投资咨询资格证号：Z0018403 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第二章 | 周度数据追踪 | 9 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 液碱市场供需处于供增需弱、累库施压、利润收缩的格局，短期走势偏空。供给端虽然部分装置检修，但行业整体开工负荷率提升至90.29%，烧碱产量环 比增加0.55%至87.10万吨，供应压力未减反而微增。需求端支撑有限。尽管主力下游氧化铝产能运行率回升至76.76%，刚需尚在，但非铝下游接货积极 性不高，且粘胶短纤行业亏损加剧，市场观望情绪浓厚，整体需求表现平淡。 库存端累库明显。山东32%液碱工厂库存环比大增13.39%，华东样本企业 库存更是激增25.78%，厂家出货压力加大。利润端大幅缩减。受液碱和液氯价格双降影响，氯碱企业盈利恶化。山东无自备电厂企业ECU由盈转亏，有自 备电厂企业盈利也大幅下滑28.83%。鉴于供应充足且库存持续累积，加上下游买涨不买跌的谨慎心态，市场缺 ...

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views PVC - This week, the PVC spot market continued to be weak. Next week, the supply - side operating rate will increase, while the demand side remains sluggish. Considering the traditional demand off - season from November to January and the expected implementation of anti - dumping duties in India, the overall demand has weak support for PVC. The supply - demand is in an oversupply pattern, and the price is hard to be optimistic. It is expected to continue the bottom - weakening pattern. Futures should be treated with a rebound - shorting approach, and options should be on the sidelines [3]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda industry still faces certain supply - demand pressures. Next week, the regional supply in East China will decline, and with the monthly contract signing, if the futures market continues to weaken, the spot price in East China is expected to decline. The Shandong market is unclear, and it is necessary to track the unloading situation of major downstream industries and the trend of liquid chlorine. The main downstream, alumina, continues to accumulate inventory, and its price is weakening, with weak price transmission to caustic soda. Overall, the demand side has weak support, and in the long - term, there are still supply - demand pressures. The caustic soda price is expected to run weakly. Futures should be considered with a short - bias, and options should be temporarily on the sidelines [4]. Summary by Directory Caustic Soda Price and Market Analysis - The caustic soda futures price has shown various trends due to factors such as macro - environment changes, supply - demand adjustments, and cost fluctuations. For example, the 8 - month contract repaired the basis, and the futures market accelerated its decline; the market was worried about the weakening of the marginal supply after the subsequent supply recovery, and the downstream demand was stable. The far - month supply - demand expectation was poor, and the futures price was seeking the bottom due to factors like cost reduction, new capacity launch, and insufficient support from alumina in the medium - term [7]. Supply - As of Thursday this week, the weekly weighted average operating load rate of sample enterprises in major regions across the country was 90.29%, a 0.5 - percentage - point increase from last week's 89.79%. In Shandong, the operating rate was 91.44%, a 3.41% increase from the previous period. There were multiple caustic soda plant maintenance situations this week, with a total maintenance loss of 3.22 tons. There are also planned maintenance schedules in the future [26][27]. Demand - Alumina is expected to have many new capacity launches in the first quarter of next year and may start stockpiling in the fourth quarter. From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned new capacity of alumina is 1230 tons (including 200 tons of replacement), with an estimated annual capacity growth rate of around 10%. The estimated annual output of alumina in 2025 is over 8800 tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina capacity will increase the demand for caustic soda by about 80 tons per year, with a relatively concentrated demand increase of 15 tons from April to June [31]. Export - In October, the caustic soda export weakened, and the estimated export profit declined [57]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) Price and Market Analysis - The PVC futures price has fluctuated due to factors such as supply - demand changes, macro - environment, and policy expectations. The core contradiction in the PVC spot market is that the supply - demand has not been substantially improved, and the spot price has continued to weaken [64][65]. Supply - This week, the operating load rate of the domestic PVC powder industry decreased. There were 2 new sets of planned maintenance, and the overall maintenance loss increased. The overall operating load rate of PVC powder this week was 77.48%, a 0.77 - percentage - point increase from last week. Among them, the operating load rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC powder was 80.15%, a 0.58 - percentage - point increase, and that of ethylene - based PVC powder was 71.31%, a 1.18 - percentage - point increase [86]. Demand - The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, face great pressure. The real estate industry is still in the bottom - building cycle, and the demand from the real estate end has a negative impact on PVC. According to the Xuande sample data, downstream orders are significantly lower than the average of the past five years, and raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels, so there is no positive driving force for PVC downstream [94]. Inventory - PVC inventory has slightly decreased, but the total inventory is still at the highest level in recent years [102]. Export - In October 2025, the PVC export volume was 31.21 tons, with an average export price of 605 US dollars per ton. The cumulative export from January to October was 323.38 tons. The single - month export decreased by 9.91% month - on - month, increased by 34.28% year - on - year, and the cumulative export increased by 48.88% year - on - year. The import volume in October was 1.09 tons, with an average import price of 725 US dollars per ton. The cumulative import from January to October was 18.64 tons. The single - month import decreased by 24.14% month - on - month, increased by 20.66% year - on - year, and the cumulative import increased by 1.74% year - on - year [120].

Group 1 - The chemical sector continued its adjustment, with the CSI sub-industry chemical theme index closing down 4.30% last Friday and down 6.47% for the week, but still showing a cumulative increase of 27.66% since the second half of the year, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by over 16% [1] - The Tianhong Chemical ETF (159133) will be listed on November 25, having raised a net subscription amount of 549.89 million RMB during its fundraising period from November 10 to November 12, with a total of 549.91 million shares issued [1] - The Tianhong Chemical ETF tracks the CSI sub-industry chemical theme index, covering various segments of the chemical industry, including phosphorus chemicals, fluorine chemicals, phosphorus fertilizers, and potassium fertilizers [1] Group 2 - The basic chemical industry has seen an increase in profit growth in the first three quarters, continuing its bottom recovery, with the overall gross margin at 17.69% and net margin at 6.17% for the first three quarters of 2025, both showing a slight year-on-year recovery [2] - The profitability of sub-industries within the basic chemical sector has shown significant differentiation, with improvements noted in fluorine chemicals, potassium fertilizers, synthetic resins, chlor-alkali, and compound fertilizers [2]

日期：2025年11月23日 烧碱：震荡偏弱 PVC：低位震荡 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 观点综述 01 烧碱价格及价差 02 烧碱供应 03 烧碱需求 04 PVC价格及价差 05 PVC供需 06 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 观点综述 1 烧碱观点：震荡偏弱 | 供应 | 中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为84.6%，较上周环比+0.5%。分区域来看，华北、东北负荷均有上升，其中东北涨幅最 大+2.9%至95.7%；华北+2.1%至79.9%，其中山东+2.8%至92.2%。华东、华中、西南有装置检修、减产，开工下滑，华东降幅最大 | | --- | --- | | | 4.8%至74.7%，华中-1.8%至76.5%，西南-3.4%至96.6%。 | | 需求 | 氧化铝方面，由于高产量、高库存的格局，利润被持续压缩，氧化铝减产只是时间问题，本周广西、山西 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The futures of olefins and polyolefins are fluctuating widely, with supply - demand contradictions and price trends affected by factors like inventory, cost, and oil prices [2] - Pure benzene price rebounds with uncertain sustainability, and styrene's price is supported by short - term supply - demand improvement [3] - In the polyester industry, prices of PX, PTA, etc., are affected by multiple factors, and the supply of ethylene glycol is under pressure [5] - Methanol and urea markets have their own supply - demand situations and price trends [6] - PVC and caustic soda are in a weak operation state due to supply - demand imbalances [7] - Soda ash shows a long - term oversupply pattern, and glass has limited downward space [8] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene enterprise inventory is low, but downstream polypropylene cost pressure and low international oil prices may affect the market [2] - Polyethylene and polypropylene futures close down, with supply - demand contradictions in both markets [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene price rebounds with uncertain continuity, and styrene has short - term supply - demand support [3] Polyester - PTA price drops with the decline of PX and oil prices, and the supply of ethylene glycol is under pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol is in a weak operation, and urea may have an oscillating callback [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC and caustic soda are in a weak state due to supply - demand imbalances [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is in an oversupply situation, and glass has limited downward space [8]

氯碱日报 | 2025-11-21 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2261元/吨（-4）；山东32%液碱基差177元/吨（+4）。 PVC再探底，关注装置检修动态 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4456元/吨（-36）；华东基差-36元/吨（-4）;华南基差14元/吨（-4）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4420元/吨（-40）；华南电石法报价4470元/吨（-40）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格800元/吨（+0）；电石价格2805元/吨（+0）；电石利润-125元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-820元/吨（-50）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-491元/吨（-26）；PVC出口利润7.4美元/吨（+2.6）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存32.2万吨（-1.2）；PVC社会库存53.2万吨（-1.3）；PVC电石法开工率80.15%（+0.58%）； PVC乙烯法开工率71.31%（+1.18%）；PVC开工率77.48%（+0.77%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量69.9万吨（-4.3）。 烧碱： 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价780元/吨（+0）；山东50%液碱报价1 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 21 日 PVC：不宜追空，低位震荡 | | 陈嘉昕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 | chenjiaxin2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | PVC 基本面数据 | | | | | 01合约期货价格 | 华东现货价格 | 基差 | 1-5月差 | | 4456 | 4420 | -36 | -311 | 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 【现货消息】 国内 PVC 盘中价格持续震荡下跌，受房产市场需求预期偏弱，相关大宗价格预期持续偏空，叠加现货 供应表现充足，加重市场短期看弱预期，现货受成本支撑表现坚挺，实盘成交重心降幅有限，华东地区电石 法五型现汇库提在 4400-4500 元/吨，乙烯法在 4500-4650 元/吨。 【市场状况分析】 PVC 期货跌至历史低位水平，且绝对估值处于低位，部分装置因亏损幅度较大，存在减产预期，因此短 期不宜追空。不过冬季仍是氯碱企业检修淡季，即使存在新增检修，其规模或有限，对 03 合约之前的期货 合约而言，仍然面临高开工、弱需求的格局 ...