1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The current supply - demand pattern of the PVC market is generally weak, but the release of the draft for soliciting opinions on differential electricity prices in Shaanxi and overseas device shutdowns support the PVC futures to rebound. The macro - expectation has improved, and the PVC market is expected to rebound with the macro - sentiment. The overall supply - demand of PVC remains weak, and attention should be paid to subsequent device maintenance and macro policies [3]. - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. The supply side is operating at a high level, but the demand for liquid chlorine may weaken, and the cost support of chlor - alkali may strengthen slightly. The demand for caustic soda may decline in the long - term. The caustic soda futures price has limited downward space and will rebound with the macro - sentiment. Attention should be paid to the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine and the implementation of macro policies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4919 yuan/ton (+155); the East China basis is - 289 yuan/ton (-5); the South China basis is - 269 yuan/ton (-35) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method quotation is 4630 yuan/ton (+150); the South China calcium carbide method quotation is 4650 yuan/ton (+120) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 750 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide price is 2780 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide profit is - 110 yuan/ton (+0); the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide method production is - 714 yuan/ton (+47); the gross profit of PVC ethylene method production is - 279 yuan/ton (+56); the PVC export profit is - 15.3 US dollars/ton (+0.4) [1]. - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory inventory of PVC is 30.9 tons (+0.3); the social inventory of PVC is 52.5 tons (+1.1); the operation rate of PVC calcium carbide method is 77.46% (+0.45%); the operation rate of PVC ethylene method is 70.73% (-3.33%); the overall operation rate of PVC is 75.42% (-0.70%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 81.6 tons (+0.9) [1]. 3.1.2 Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2194 yuan/ton (+30); the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 38 yuan/ton (-30) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 690 yuan/ton (+0); the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1090 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1131 yuan/ton (+0); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 604.0 yuan/ton (+0.0); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 207.95 yuan/ton (+80.00); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 575.00 yuan/ton (+20.00) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 48.57 tons (+4.35); the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 3.02 tons (+0.05); the operation rate of caustic soda is 86.40% (+0.40%) [2]. - Downstream operation of caustic soda: The operation rate of alumina is 84.67% (-0.47%); the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 60.81% (-0.47%); the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 85.05% (-1.98%) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 PVC - The supply - demand pattern is weak, but the market rebounds due to policy and overseas factors, and the macro - expectation has improved. The domestic supply is abundant, the downstream operation has slightly decreased, and the export orders remain resilient. The social inventory has slightly increased, and the overall profit has recovered but is still at a low level compared to the same period [3]. 3.2.2 Caustic Soda - The spot price is stable with a slight decline. The supply side operates at a high level, but the demand for liquid chlorine may weaken. The demand for caustic soda is average, and the demand may decline in the long - term. The macro - expectation has improved, and the downward space of the futures price is limited [3]. 3.3 Strategy 3.3.1 PVC - Unilateral: Fluctuate with the macro - situation - Inter - delivery: Wait and see - Inter - variety: None [5] 3.3.2 Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Fluctuate with the macro - situation - Inter - delivery: Wait and see - Inter - variety: None [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of caustic soda is 1, indicating a moderately bullish outlook [5] Core View of the Report - Caustic soda's short - term trend may be strong due to macro - sentiment, but the spot market faces the impact of low - price warehouse receipts, and without production cuts by manufacturers, a significant rebound is difficult. The market may have a short - term rebound under the influence of anti - involution sentiment, but the overall high - production and high - inventory pattern persists, with weak demand [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On January 7, 2026, the 03 - contract futures price was 2194, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 690, the price of Shandong's 32% caustic soda converted to the futures market was 2156, and the basis was - 38 [1] Spot News - On January 6, the caustic soda market price in Shandong was weakly stable. Some enterprises with high - priced products and poor sales reduced prices, high - concentration caustic soda orders were scarce, export prices were low, and the market price continued to decline [2] Market Condition Analysis - After the New Year's Day, the caustic soda 2601 contract dropped significantly due to a large number of 01 - contract warehouse receipts and high pressure on long - position holders to take delivery, leading to massive position - closing. The pressure on near - month contracts and continuous spot price cuts also caused other contracts to weaken. However, based on the delivery situation, the closing price of the 01 contract on Monday night was 1940 yuan/ton, and long - position holders would not lose money. This price was much lower than Shandong Weiqiao's purchase price, and the discount to the spot was sufficient to cover storage and transaction costs, so the short - term decline due to delivery factors would be limited [3] - Fundamentally, caustic soda remains in a high - production and high - inventory pattern. On the demand side, the oversupply of alumina has not changed in the short term, and the expectation of production cuts suppresses the stockpiling of caustic soda. Non - aluminum downstream industries face a seasonal decline in rigid demand, and exports are under pressure, so overall demand lacks support. On the supply side, winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, and with high operating rates, the supply pressure of caustic soda is large, and enterprises still face the pressure of reducing prices to clear inventory before the Spring Festival [3] - Overall, there is limited room for caustic soda to continue trading on the near - month delivery pressure. In the short term, driven by macro - sentiment, the trend may be strong. However, the spot market still faces the impact of low - price warehouse receipts. Without production cuts by manufacturers, caustic soda is unlikely to have an obvious rebound. Attention should also be paid to the shutdown of the Freeport chlor - alkali plant of Olin in the United States, which may have an impact on caustic soda exports [3]

Core Viewpoint - The chlor-alkali industry is currently facing a "homogeneous products and profit pressure" dilemma, necessitating a multi-faceted approach including technological innovation, structural optimization, and model innovation to establish a new high-quality development pattern focused on "quality improvement, efficiency enhancement, differentiated competition, and green collaboration" [1][3]. Technological Innovation - Technological innovation is essential for breaking the "involution" cycle, focusing on energy-saving and cost-reduction at the production level, as well as smart upgrades to lower costs from the source [1]. - Advanced technologies such as membrane electrolysis and heat recovery from hydrochloric acid synthesis are recommended to enhance energy efficiency [1]. - For instance, Shandong Haohua Chlor-Alkali utilizes a large model for process optimization, equipment maintenance, and intelligent inspection, achieving an annual electricity saving of 4.5 million kWh and generating nearly 10 million yuan in comprehensive benefits [1]. Structural Optimization - The core issues of "involution" stem from a single product structure and supply-demand mismatch, requiring efforts in "eliminating inefficiencies, enhancing high-end production, and supplementing the supply chain" to reshape the competitive landscape [2]. - Strict enforcement of energy efficiency policies to eliminate low-efficiency capacities can alleviate supply pressure [2]. - Traditional chlor-alkali enterprises should aim for value creation by extending into fine chemicals and new materials, as exemplified by Xingfa Group's development of high-end products like electronic-grade caustic soda and PVC resin for lithium battery binders [2]. Model Innovation - The industry must move away from "individual efforts" to address "involution" through integrated industry chains, regional collaboration, and policy guidance to create a collective development force [2]. - Learning from the Shanghai Chlor-Alkali's "Shanghai-Guangxi dual base" strategy, the industry can leverage integrated advantages of chemical parks to form a closed loop with upstream and downstream enterprises, reducing logistics costs and resource consumption [2]. - Promoting deep integration between the chlor-alkali industry and sectors like renewable energy, hydrogen energy, and green electricity can create unique competitive barriers [2]. Transition Path - The path to countering "involution" in the chlor-alkali industry fundamentally involves a shift from "scale expansion" to "quality and efficiency" [3]. - This transition requires establishing a solid foundation for cost reduction through technological innovation, creating differentiated advantages through product upgrades, and building a collaborative ecosystem through model innovation to explore new value creation opportunities [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market is weak, but the release of the draft for comments on the differential electricity price policy in Shaanxi and overseas device outages support the PVC futures to rebound. The policy has not directly impacted the current PVC supply, and its implementation needs continuous attention. The domestic PVC supply is abundant, downstream开工 has declined slightly, and social inventory has increased slightly. The overall supply - demand of PVC remains weak, and it is expected to rebound with the macro - sentiment. [3] - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a downward trend. The inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu has increased. The supply - side is operating at a high level, and the demand - side has general receiving sentiment. The demand for caustic soda may decline in the long - term due to the anti - involution policy of alumina. The supply - demand of caustic soda is weak, and attention should be paid to changes in liquid chlorine prices, device dynamics, and the implementation of macro anti - involution details. [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Market Data - Futures price: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4764 yuan/ton (- 41). The East China basis is - 284 yuan/ton (+ 31), and the South China basis is - 234 yuan/ton (+ 31). [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4480 yuan/ton (- 10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4530 yuan/ton (- 20). [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 750 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide price is 2780 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide profit is - 110 yuan/ton (+ 0), the gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC production is - 714 yuan/ton (+ 47), the gross profit of ethylene - based PVC production is - 279 yuan/ton (+ 56), and the PVC export profit is - 15.6 US dollars/ton (+ 0.2). [1] - Inventory and开工: The in - factory PVC inventory is 30.9 tons (+ 0.3), the social PVC inventory is 52.5 tons (+ 1.1), the calcium carbide - based PVC开工 rate is 77.46% (+ 0.45%), the ethylene - based PVC开工 rate is 70.73% (- 3.33%), and the overall PVC开工 rate is 75.42% (- 0.70%). [1] - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 81.6 tons (+ 0.9). [1] Strategy - Single - side: Rebound with the macro - sentiment [5] - Inter - period: Wait - and - see [5] - Inter - variety: None [5] Caustic Soda Market Data - Futures price: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2164 yuan/ton (- 78), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 8 yuan/ton (+ 37). [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 690 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1090 yuan/ton (+ 0). [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1131 yuan/ton (+ 0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 604.0 yuan/ton (+ 40.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 287.95 yuan/ton (- 10.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 555.00 yuan/ton (+ 0.00). [2] - Inventory and开工: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 48.57 tons (+ 4.35), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 3.02 tons (+ 0.05), and the caustic soda开工 rate is 86.40% (+ 0.40%). [2] - Downstream开工: The alumina开工 rate is 84.67% (- 0.47%), the dyeing开工 rate in East China is 60.81% (- 0.47%), and the viscose staple fiber开工 rate is 85.05% (- 1.98%). [2] Strategy - Single - side: Oscillate weakly [5] - Inter - period: Wait - and - see [5] - Inter - variety: None [5]

Group 1 - The chemical sector continues to show strong performance, with the chemical ETF (516020) rising by 2.03% as of the latest report, reflecting a robust market trend [1] - Key stocks in the sector include Junzheng Group, which surged over 7%, Hengli Petrochemical up over 6%, and Hengyi Petrochemical increasing by over 5% [1][2] - The overall market sentiment is positive, driven by price increases in core products like MDI/TDI by Wanhua Chemical, which plans to raise prices in line with international giants [1][3] Group 2 - The chemical industry is expected to experience a dual uplift in performance and valuation due to the "anti-involution" policy, with a 10% year-on-year decrease in construction projects among basic chemical companies [3] - Demand is being supported by domestic consumption and resilient exports, indicating a recovery in the supply-demand balance [3] - Analysts predict that the chemical industry may reach a cyclical turning point by 2026, driven by policy expectations and a potential increase in demand as the U.S. enters a rate-cutting phase [3] Group 3 - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI sub-sector chemical industry index, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks like Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Shares, providing investors with strong investment opportunities [4] - The ETF also diversifies its holdings across various sub-sectors, including phosphate and nitrogen fertilizers, fluorochemicals, and other chemical leaders [4]

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in caustic soda futures prices is primarily driven by a combination of falling spot market prices, increased inventory levels, and seasonal demand fluctuations in the non-aluminum sector [2][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Caustic soda futures prices dropped sharply, with the main contract SH2603 closing down by 3.82% [2][8]. - The spot market continues to decline, with regional procurement prices being consecutively lowered. In Shandong, the procurement price for 32% caustic soda has fallen to 660 yuan/ton, while in Shanxi, the price for 50% caustic soda was reduced by 100 yuan to 2440 yuan/ton [2][8]. - In Guangxi, the procurement price for 50% caustic soda decreased by 150 yuan to 3100 yuan/ton due to delays in new aluminum oxide production capacity and a lack of concentrated restocking [2][8]. Group 2: Supply and Inventory - Liquid caustic soda prices are also declining, with chlor-alkali companies showing a stronger willingness to maintain liquid chlorine prices. Shandong Xinfan raised its liquid chlorine ex-factory price by 50 yuan to 300 yuan/ton [2][8]. - The high operating rates of chlor-alkali plants are maintaining a high supply of caustic soda, resulting in a loose supply-demand balance [2][8]. - Caustic soda inventories are accumulating again, particularly in Shandong and Jiangsu. The inventory for fixed liquid caustic soda samples from companies with over 200,000 tons reached 48.57 million tons, an increase of 9.83% month-on-month and 72.72% year-on-year [2][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - In January, there are fewer planned maintenance activities for caustic soda production facilities, which means supply pressure is unlikely to ease [3][9]. - The non-aluminum downstream sector is entering a seasonal decline in production, and medium to long-term demand for caustic soda is expected to contract due to anti-competitive policies affecting aluminum oxide [3][9]. - The current weak supply-demand situation for caustic soda will require close monitoring of production facility maintenance dynamics and liquid chlorine price fluctuations [3][9].

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 6 日 PVC：短期偏强，中期震荡 | | 陈嘉昕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 | chenjiaxin2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | PVC 基本面数据 | | | | | 01合约期货价格 | 华东现货价格 | 基差 | 1-5月差 | | 4469 | 4480 | 11 | -295 | 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 PVC 趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表 示最看空，2 表示最看多。 【市场状况分析】 【现货消息】 PVC 估值低位，虽然市场交易反内卷、政策端强调着力稳定房地产市场以及近月空头大规模止盈能带动 PVC 阶段性反弹，但这种反弹空间有限，主要因 PVC 市场高产量、高库存结构短期难改变。冬季仍是氯碱 企业检修淡季，即使存在部分装置检修和降负，其规模也有限，对 03 合约之前的期货合约而言，仍然面临 高开工、弱需求的格局。博弈大规模减产预期或在 03 合约之后，而春节期 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - In December, the caustic soda market declined comprehensively. The average price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 718.75 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 8.09% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.57%. In Jiangsu, it was 826 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 9.43% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.77%. In January, the main contradiction in the caustic soda market is still supply - demand. It is expected that the supply will increase, and the trading strategy is to try shorting at high prices and set a stop - loss at the pressure level for futures, and to wait and see for options [2]. - In December, PVC prices showed a "first - down - then - up" low - level oscillating trend under the dual influence of supply - demand contradictions and policy expectations. Although there was a phased rebound, it did not change the long - term weak pattern. The trading strategy is to wait and see in the short term and observe the upper pressure level for futures, and to wait and see for options [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Caustic Soda - **Price and Market Situation**: In December, the price of liquid caustic soda in the main production areas decreased. The market was affected by factors such as high supply and weak demand from alumina. The price of liquid chlorine supported high - level production, which was negative for the price of caustic soda in Shandong [2]. - **Supply**: In December, the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda was 85.70%, a month - on - month increase of 0.74 percentage points. The monthly output was 373.35 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.59% and a year - on - year increase of 5.58%. The inventory pressure of caustic soda plants decreased slightly [24]. - **Demand from Alumina**: From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned alumina production capacity to be put into operation is 12.3 million tons, with an estimated annual production capacity growth rate of around 10%. The estimated annual output of alumina in 2025 is over 88 million tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina production capacity will increase the demand for caustic soda by about 800,000 tons per year, with a relatively concentrated demand increase of 150,000 tons from April to June [28]. - **Export**: In November, caustic soda exports weakened, and the estimated export profit increased slightly [54]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price and Market Situation**: In December, PVC prices showed a "first - down - then - up" low - level oscillating trend. The price decline at the beginning of the month was due to high inventory and weak demand, and the subsequent rebound was driven by policy expectations and supply - side marginal changes, but the long - term weak pattern remained unchanged [2]. - **Supply**: In December 2025, the estimated PVC output was 2.1399 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.91% and a year - on - year increase of 4.28%. December is the traditional off - season for PVC demand, and the downstream demand is weak [83]. - **Demand**: The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, face great pressure. The real estate industry continues to have a negative impact on demand, and domestic demand has not improved significantly. The downstream orders are significantly lower than the average of the past five years, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels [85]. - **Inventory**: The total PVC inventory is still at the highest level in recent years [93]. - **Export**: In November 2025, the PVC export volume was 275,300 tons, with an average export price of 589 US dollars/ton. The monthly export decreased by 11.78% month - on - month and increased by 29.64% year - on - year. The import volume was 15,700 tons, with an average import price of 708 US dollars/ton [110]. Alumina - **Market Situation**: After continuous decline, the alumina price has gradually stabilized, but the fundamental situation is still weak, with an oversupply situation in the domestic market. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 2650 - 2900 yuan in the short term [35]. Bauxite - **Market Situation**: The bauxite price is stable, and the inventory has been reduced to a certain extent [36]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Situation**: The output of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level, and the in - plant inventory has decreased [42]. Non - Aluminum Downstream - **Market Situation**: The operating rate of non - aluminum downstream industries has declined, and the off - season is approaching [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the caustic soda industry is "oscillating", with short - term disk having no obvious driving force, and it is expected to be mainly oscillating [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of caustic soda this week shows a neutral trend. Maintenance has decreased, production has increased, and the overall startup is expected to move slightly upward next week. Demand is also neutral, with a decline in alumina start - up and weak non - aluminum demand. Inventory is bearish, with an increase in factory - warehouse inventory and a decrease in sample warehouse inventory in some regions. The basis is neutral, the profit is bearish, the valuation is bullish, and the macro - policy has no significant impact [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: This week, maintenance decreased, and production increased by 0.3 tons to 840,000 tons. The average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises with 200,000 tons or more of caustic soda was 86.0%, a week - on - week increase of 1.3%. Next week, domestic chlor - alkali equipment will have both maintenance and restart, and the overall startup is expected to move slightly upward [3] - **Demand**: Alumina start - up declined, non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 87.03%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.59%. The comprehensive start - up rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 61.29%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.77% [3] - **Inventory**: The factory - warehouse inventory of 200,000 tons or more of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 485,700 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 9.83% and a year - on - year increase of 72.72%. The inventory ratio of sample warehouse in the central and eastern regions decreased [3] - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around - 85, and the futures price is at a premium [3] - **Profit**: The theoretical production cost of caustic soda decreased, the price of caustic soda increased, the average weekly price of liquid chlorine decreased, and the overall chlor - alkali profit decreased. The average weekly gross profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was - 6 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 88% [3] - **Valuation**: The spot price is at a low level, and the absolute price of the disk is low. The near - month contract is slightly at a premium [3] - **Macro Policy**: There is currently no significant impact [3] - **Investment View**: Short - term disk has no obvious driving force, and it is expected to be mainly oscillating. There is no unilateral or arbitrage trading strategy for now. Attention should be paid to changes in liquid chlorine prices, rotation storage policies, and global economic recession [3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - This week, the Shandong spot market was weak, and the futures market was oscillating strongly. The price of liquid chlorine was higher than that in the first half of the year, first falling and then rising, fluctuating around 200 yuan/ton. The comprehensive chlor - alkali profit was close to the break - even line. After the New Year's Day, the price of 32% caustic soda decreased to varying degrees, and the high - concentration caustic soda had not stabilized. Downstream demand was weak, and the overall performance of the Shandong market was still poor [6] - The total open interest increased, with an increase in positions in the far - month contracts [24] 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Electricity Price**: Coal supply is tight, and electricity prices are rising [32] - **Upstream Production**: Start - up remains stable at a high level, and inventory is being destocked [35] - **Main Production Area Production**: Maintenance in North China has decreased, and production has increased [38] - **Chlor - Alkali Profit**: Chlor - alkali comprehensive profit has decreased [39] - **Downstream Price**: Alumina price has declined, and non - aluminum prices are weak [42] - **Alumina**: Alumina start - up has recovered, and inventory has increased. The supply - demand balance of alumina has been repaired, port bauxite inventory has increased, and alumina profit is good and stable year - on - year [54][64] - **Non - Aluminum Demand**: Non - aluminum start - up remains stable but is lower than the same period last year. Non - aluminum has entered the seasonal off - season, and start - up has begun to decline [65] - **Liquid Chlorine Downstream**: Start - up rate has rebounded [73]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the PVC industry is "Oscillating mainly" [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although PVC is at a low valuation and can have a phased rebound, the rebound space is limited due to the short - term unchangeable high - production and high - inventory structure. The 03 - contract and earlier futures contracts face a pattern of high operation and weak demand. The expectation of large - scale production cuts may be after the 03 contract, and the expectation of significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival and the contango structure will limit the market's ability to trade low - valuation factors. Also, the PVC warehouse receipts are at a high level, and the future pressure on long - position holders to take delivery is large [1] - The comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry is at a historically low level. Next year, the production cut during the peak maintenance season on the supply side may exceed expectations, which is beneficial to the profit repair of the chlor - alkali industry. It is recommended to enter the market on the right side after seeing substantial large - scale maintenance plans on the supply side [2] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs PVC Fundamental Data - The 05 - contract futures price is 4805, the East China spot price is 4500, the basis is - 305, and the 5 - 9 month spread is - 134 [1] Spot News - After the holiday, affected by the weekend market, the trading atmosphere is dull. The market quotation remains firm, and all parties are waiting and seeing. Terminal demand has a small amount of procurement. The spot five - type ex - warehouse price of PVC in the East China region is 4480 - 4580 yuan/ton, and the ethylene - based price is 4500 - 4650 yuan/ton [1] Market Condition Analysis - PVC has a low valuation. The market trading against involution, policy emphasis on stabilizing the real estate market, and large - scale stop - loss of short - positions in the near - month contracts can drive a phased rebound, but the space is limited. The high - production and high - inventory structure in the PVC market is difficult to change in the short term. Winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance. Even with some device maintenance and production reduction, the scale is limited. The 03 - contract and earlier futures contracts face high operation and weak demand. The expectation of large - scale production cuts may be after the 03 contract. The expectation of significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival and the contango structure limit the market's ability to trade low - valuation factors. PVC warehouse receipts are at a high level, and the future pressure on long - position holders to take delivery is large [1] Chlor - Alkali Industry Profit Outlook - The comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry is at a historically low level. Next year, the production cut during the peak maintenance season on the supply side may exceed expectations, which is beneficial to profit repair. It is recommended to enter the market on the right side after seeing substantial large - scale maintenance plans on the supply side [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PVC is 0, with a range of integers from - 2 to 2, where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [2]