2026 年 01 月 05 日 天赐材料(002709.SZ) 六氟磷酸锂涨价持续，电解液龙头25Q4 业绩超预期 2025 年预计实现 11-16 亿元归母净利润，业绩超预期： 公司发布 2025 年业绩预告。2025 年预计实现归母净利润 11-16 亿 元，同比+127%-231%；预计实现扣非净利润 10.5-15.5 亿元，同比 +175%-306%。按照公司发布预告中值 25 年全年归母利润 13.5 亿元 计算，对应 2025Q4 归母净利润 9.3 亿元，同比+538%，环比+509%， 业绩超预期。 六氟磷酸锂持续涨价，公司充分受益，未来业绩弹性可期： 自 2025 年 7 月以来，六氟磷酸锂持续涨价。根据上海有色金属网数 据，六氟磷酸锂已从 7 月价格低点约 5 万元/吨涨至 16 万元/吨，涨 幅高达 220%。作为制备电解液的关键电解质材料，六氟磷酸锂涨价 带动电解液涨价，26 年 1 月以来三元动力用、磷酸铁锂用及锰酸锂 用电解液均价分别为 3.7 万元/吨、3.55 万元/吨及 2.85 万元/吨。 公司作为电解液龙头，充分受益于六氟磷酸锂、电解液价格上涨。 六氟磷酸锂短期扩产谨 ...

量化大势研判 202601 宜攻守兼备：成长+质量 glmszqdatemark [Table_Author] 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 2026 年 01 月 04 日 分析师 叶尔乐 执业证书： S0590525110059 邮箱： yeerle@glms.com.cn 为了解决风格系统化轮动难题，我们开启了自下而上的量化大势研判探究。所谓 风格是资产本身的内在属性，内嵌于其产业生命周期的变化中，存在五种风格阶 段：外延成长、质量成长、质量红利、价值红利、破产价值。全局比较下来的优 势资产其特征属性，即为未来市场的主流风格。可通过 g>ROE>D 的基本优先级 进行考察，分析"有没有（好资产）"和"（好资产）贵不贵"进行优势资产的比 较判断，最后聚焦当下最具有优势的细分板块。 预期增速资产优势差继续回升，实际增速资产优势差小幅回升，继续推荐预期成 长风格，景气类成长建议标配。△gf 继续保持扩张，其主要来自 Top 组的上升， 高预期增速板块依然有表现机会；△g 小幅回升，景气类策略虽缺乏基本面动量优 势，但可保持标配。 ROE 的优势差继续回 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company announced a stock suspension due to planned transaction matters, effective from December 1, 2025, with a notable stock price increase prior to the suspension [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Stock Performance - The company's stock rose by 14.08% during the 20 trading days leading up to the suspension, while the Shenzhen Composite Index fell by 2.95% and the lithium battery chemical index increased by 7.50% [1] - After excluding the impact of the broader market, the stock's increase was 17.02%, and when excluding the influence of the same industry sector, the increase was 6.57% [1] Board Assessment - The board concluded that the cumulative price change of the stock did not exceed 20% in the 20 trading days prior to the first announcement of the transaction, which does not meet the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's relevant standards, indicating no abnormal trading fluctuations [1]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Quantitative Market Trend Judgment Framework - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to address the systematic rotation of market styles by identifying the dominant asset characteristics that represent the future mainstream market style. It evaluates assets based on the priority of "g > ROE > D" to determine whether there are good assets and whether they are overvalued[5][8][12] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define five style stages based on the industry lifecycle: external growth, quality growth, quality dividend, value dividend, and bankruptcy value[8] 2. Use the "g > ROE > D" priority to compare assets, focusing on growth (g), profitability (ROE), and dividend yield (D)[5][8] 3. Incorporate factors such as expected growth (gf), actual growth (g), profitability (ROE), and valuation metrics (PB, DP, BP) to classify and evaluate assets[9][12] 4. Apply the framework to select industries and allocate them equally within each strategy[19] - **Model Evaluation**: The framework has demonstrated strong explanatory power for A-share market style rotation since 2009, achieving an annualized return of 27.06%[19] --- Model Backtesting Results Quantitative Market Trend Judgment Framework - **Annualized Return**: 27.06% since 2009[19] - **Excess Returns by Year**: - 2017: 27% - 2020: 44% - 2022: 62% - 2024: 52% - 2025 (YTD): 8%[22] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Expected Growth (gf) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the expected growth rate of industries based on analysts' forecasts, regardless of the lifecycle stage[9] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the expected growth rate (gf) for each industry 2. Rank industries based on the highest expected growth rates 3. Select top-performing industries for allocation[9][38] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns since 2019, with notable performance in 2014-2015 and 2025[38] 2. Factor Name: Actual Growth (g) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Focuses on industries with the highest earnings momentum (△g), particularly during transition and growth phases[9] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use △g to represent earnings momentum 2. Rank industries based on △g and select the top-performing ones 3. Incorporate additional factors such as SUE, SUR, and JOR for refinement[40] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has consistently delivered significant excess returns, especially in growth-dominant environments[40] 3. Factor Name: Profitability (ROE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Targets industries with high ROE and low valuation under the PB-ROE framework, focusing on mature stages[9] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate PB-ROE residuals for each industry 2. Rank industries based on residuals and select the top-performing ones[43] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor performed strongly from 2016 to 2020 but has weakened since 2021[43] 4. Factor Name: Quality Dividend (DP + ROE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Combines dividend yield (DP) and ROE to identify industries with the highest scores, focusing on mature stages[9] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate DP and ROE for each industry 2. Combine the two metrics into a composite score 3. Rank industries and select the top-performing ones[46] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns in 2016, 2017, and 2023[46] 5. Factor Name: Value Dividend (DP + BP) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Combines dividend yield (DP) and book-to-price ratio (BP) to identify undervalued industries, focusing on mature stages[9] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate DP and BP for each industry 2. Combine the two metrics into a composite score 3. Rank industries and select the top-performing ones[49] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has delivered significant excess returns in 2009, 2017, and 2021-2023[49] 6. Factor Name: Bankruptcy Value (PB + SIZE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Targets industries with the lowest PB and SIZE scores, focusing on stagnation and recession stages[9] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate PB and SIZE for each industry 2. Combine the two metrics into a composite score 3. Rank industries and select the lowest-scoring ones[52] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns in 2015-2016 and 2021-2023[52] --- Factor Backtesting Results Expected Growth (gf) - **Recent Performance**: - Lithium: +51.15% (3 months) - Frozen Food: +14.08% (3 months)[38] Actual Growth (g) - **Recent Performance**: - Lithium Chemicals: +51.88% (3 months) - Other Home Appliances: +14.93% (3 months)[41] Profitability (ROE) - **Recent Performance**: - Network Equipment: +12.18% (3 months) - Buses: +10.46% (3 months)[43] Quality Dividend (DP + ROE) - **Recent Performance**: - Timber Processing: +145.24% (3 months) - Lithium Equipment: +21.95% (3 months)[46] Value Dividend (DP + BP) - **Recent Performance**: - Network Equipment: +12.18% (3 months) - Security: -2.24% (3 months)[49] Bankruptcy Value (PB + SIZE) - **Recent Performance**: - Gas: +15.88% (3 months) - Building Renovation: +16.42% (3 months)[52]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 19.9 yuan [2][7]. Core Insights - The company has seen an increase in overseas revenue proportion and an improvement in profitability. The report highlights a 13.53% year-on-year revenue growth for Q3 2025, reaching 2.958 billion yuan, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 67.25% year-on-year to 114 million yuan [2][7]. - The report emphasizes the rising prices in the dry separator industry, with a nearly 30% price increase in the first half of the year and continued price growth from September to November. This price recovery is expected to drive further investment in R&D by related companies [7]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity both domestically and internationally, diversifying its product range, and enhancing market share. New products such as nanofiber and polyimide separators are expected to improve charging efficiency and safety [7]. - The report notes the company's advancements in solid-state materials, with a subsidiary capable of producing oxide electrolytes at a scale of hundreds of tons and plans for sulfide electrolytes to achieve ton-level shipments by 2025 [7]. Financial Summary - Projected total revenue for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 3.541 billion, 4.178 billion, 5.316 billion, and 6.591 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.5%, 18.0%, 27.2%, and 24.0% [3][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 364 million, 197 million, 559 million, and 688 million yuan for the same years, with significant fluctuations in growth rates [3][8]. - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including earnings per share (EPS) estimates of 0.27, 0.15, 0.41, and 0.51 yuan for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 57.71 CNY [1][5] Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in its financial performance, with a notable recovery in Q3 2025, achieving a revenue of 37.80 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 41.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24.6% [5] - The company is actively expanding its overseas production capacity, with its Hungarian facility fully operational and ongoing projects in the United States, which positions it favorably in the global lithium battery market [5] - Progress in solid-state battery technology is promising, with the company’s subsidiaries achieving milestones in production and technology development [5] Financial Performance Summary - Projected total revenue for 2024 is 10,164 million CNY, with a year-on-year decline of 15.6%, followed by a recovery in 2025 with an expected growth of 22.6% to 12,463 million CNY [1][6] - The company is expected to turn profitable in 2025 with a projected net profit of 93 million CNY, a significant turnaround from a loss of 556 million CNY in 2024 [1][6] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to improve from -0.57 CNY in 2024 to 0.10 CNY in 2025, with further growth anticipated in subsequent years [1][6] Market Position and Strategy - The company is one of the first in the Chinese lithium battery industry to establish overseas production capabilities, providing it with a competitive edge in the global market [5] - The strategic focus on solid-state battery materials and the establishment of production lines for high-purity lithium sulfide and solid electrolyte membranes indicate a strong commitment to innovation and future growth [5]

Core Insights - The CITIC Basic Chemical Industry Index increased by 5.02% in September 2025, ranking 7th among 30 CITIC primary industries [1][2] - Sub-industries such as lithium chemical products, electronic chemicals, and modified plastics showed strong performance [1][2] - Chemical product prices continued to decline in September 2025 [1][2] Market Review - The CITIC Basic Chemical Industry Index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.38 percentage points and the CSI 300 Index by 1.82 percentage points in September 2025 [2] - Over the past year, the index rose by 28.23%, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index by 11.86 percentage points and the CSI 300 Index by 12.73 percentage points [2] Sub-industry and Stock Performance - In September 2025, 16 out of 33 CITIC tertiary sub-industries rose, while 17 declined [3] - Lithium chemical products, electronic chemicals, and modified plastics increased by 32.82%, 12.09%, and 11.91% respectively [3] - Among 524 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 215 rose and 309 fell, with the top gainers including Lanfeng Biochemical and Tianji Co., with increases of 103.92% and 84.82% respectively [3] Product Price Tracking - International oil prices continued to decline in September 2025, with WTI crude oil down by 2.56% and Brent crude oil down by 1.61% [4] - Among 319 tracked products, 93 saw price increases, while 175 experienced declines, indicating an overall downward trend in basic chemical product prices [4] Industry Investment Recommendations - The industry maintains a "market perform" investment rating, with expectations for improved supply and demand dynamics due to the implementation of growth plans [5] - For October 2025, the investment strategy suggests focusing on the pesticide, polyester filament, coal chemical, phosphate, and potassium fertilizer sectors [5]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector experienced a pullback on October 10, with the chemical ETF (516020) showing a decline of 1.01% as of the report time, reflecting a broader downturn in the industry [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The chemical ETF (516020) opened lower and continued to fluctuate at low levels, ultimately dropping by 1.01% [1][2]. - Key stocks in the lithium battery supply chain saw significant declines, with Tianqi Lithium falling over 8%, and other companies like Duofu and Enjie also experiencing notable drops [1][2]. - The basic chemical sector attracted substantial capital inflow, with a net inflow of 23.4 billion yuan over the past five trading days, ranking second among 30 sectors [3]. Group 2: Valuation and Investment Outlook - As of October 9, the chemical ETF (516020) had a price-to-book ratio of 2.41, which is relatively low compared to the historical average, indicating potential value for long-term investment [4]. - The construction of new projects in the basic chemical sector has shown a negative growth trend for three consecutive quarters, suggesting a supply-side slowdown and a more favorable market outlook [5]. - Analysts suggest that core assets in the chemical sector are entering a long-term value zone, with expectations for a recovery in both valuation and profitability [5]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI segmented chemical industry index, covering various sub-sectors and concentrating nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap stocks, which may provide a more efficient way to invest in the sector [6]. - Investors can also consider using the chemical ETF linked funds (Class A 012537/Class C 012538) for exposure to the chemical sector [6].

Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced a volatile upward trend on September 15, with the Chemical ETF (516020) closing up by 0.13% [1] - Key stocks in the lithium battery, titanium dioxide, and fluorochemical sectors saw significant gains, with Tianqi Lithium hitting the daily limit, Longbai Group rising by 5.09%, and multiple other companies increasing by over 3% [1][3] - Analysts attribute the surge in the lithium battery sector to four main positive drivers, including new payment norms from the China Automotive Industry Association and a recent action plan for green transformation in Fujian [3] Group 2 - The recent issuance of the "New Energy Storage Scale Construction Special Action Plan (2025-2027)" by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration has contributed to market optimism [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have jointly issued a growth plan for the automotive industry, aiming for approximately 32.3 million vehicle sales in 2025, including 15.5 million new energy vehicles [3] - The chemical ETF (516020) is currently at a low valuation, with a price-to-book ratio of 2.29, indicating a favorable long-term investment opportunity [3] Group 3 - Guohai Securities suggests that the Chinese chemical industry may undergo a revaluation, with potential for increased cash flow and higher dividend yields as global capacity expansion slows [4] - The outlook for the second half of 2025 indicates that fiscal policies in China and the U.S. may strengthen, leading to a potential upturn in the chemical sector [5] - The chemical ETF (516020) provides a diversified investment approach, covering various sub-sectors and focusing on large-cap leading stocks, which may enhance investment efficiency [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][19]. Core Insights - The company's profits are under pressure due to price impacts, but high-end lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4) research and development is progressing smoothly [2]. - The company reported a revenue of 3.882 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 10.58%, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of 391 million yuan, an improvement from a loss of 516 million yuan in the same period last year [8]. - The company is increasing its R&D investment, with a total of 102 million yuan spent and 61 new patent applications filed during the reporting period [8]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue is projected to increase from 7.613 billion yuan in 2024 to 14.359 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.6% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to improve from a loss of 1.338 billion yuan in 2024 to a profit of 434 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a significant turnaround [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from -4.77 yuan in 2024 to 1.55 yuan in 2027 [4]. Product Development and Market Position - The company has the largest established production capacity for manganese iron lithium at 110,000 tons per year, with products already in mass production [8]. - The first-generation manganese iron lithium product has achieved batch delivery, and the second-generation product is progressing well in validation [8]. - The company’s lithium supplement enhancer is the first in the world to achieve mass production, with a capacity of 5,000 tons per year, leading the industry in both scale and progress [8].