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生猪市场周报:节后需求转淡,生猪支撑有限-20260213
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-02-13 09:18
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the live hog price fluctuated and closed down, with the main contract 2605 down 1.08% for the week [8][12]. - After the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of live hogs are both weak in the initial stage. The price fluctuation range may be relatively limited. Considering that the supply will gradually recover in the future, the loose supply and demand will put pressure on the price. It is expected that the live hog price will fluctuate slightly weaker [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The live hog price fluctuated and closed down this week, with the main contract 2605 down 1.08% for the week [8][12]. - **Market Outlook**: After the festival, the slaughter rhythm of the breeding end will gradually resume. The short - term supply pressure is limited. The supply in the next two months is relatively sufficient. Attention should be paid to the second - fattening market. The demand turns from strong to weak after the festival. Overall, the supply and demand are weak at the beginning after the festival, and the live hog price is expected to fluctuate slightly weaker [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures price fluctuated and closed down this week, with the main contract 2605 down 1.08% for the week [12]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of February 13, the net short position of the top 20 holders of live hog futures decreased by 884 lots compared with last week, and the number of live hog futures warehouse receipts was 1027, an increase of 300 lots compared with the previous week [18]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spread between lh2605 and lh2607 contracts is - 720, and the spread between lh2605 and lh2609 contracts is - 1640 [23]. 3.2.2. Spot Market - **Base Difference**: The basis of the live hog March contract this week was 1660 yuan/ton, and the basis of the May contract was 900 yuan/ton [28]. - **Live Hog and Piglet Prices**: The national average price of live hogs this week was 11.62 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.88 yuan/kg compared with last week. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 29.24 yuan/kg, the same as last week [38]. - **Pork and Sows Prices**: On February 12, the national average market price of pork was 18.07 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.41 yuan/kg compared with the previous week. The average market price of binary sows was 32.47 yuan/kg, the same as the previous week [44]. - **Pig - grain Ratio**: As of the week of February 4, 2026, the pig - grain ratio was 5.68, a decrease of 0.08 compared with the previous week [48]. 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - **Sow Inventory**: In December 2025, the official inventory of reproductive sows was 39.61 million. According to Mysteel data, in January 2026, the inventory of reproductive sows in 123 large - scale farms increased slightly by 0.02% month - on - month, while that in 85 small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.36% month - on - month [50][54]. - **Live Hog Inventory**: At the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, the live hog inventory was 429.67 million, a 1.6% decrease month - on - month and a 0.5% increase year - on - year. In January 2026, the inventory of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms decreased by 0.70% month - on - month, while that in 85 small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.02% month - on - month [56][59]. - **Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: In January 2026, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms decreased by 3.27% month - on - month, and that in 85 small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.71% month - on - month. The average slaughter weight of live hogs this week was 122.89 kg, a decrease of 0.37 kg compared with last week [61][64]. 3.3.2. Industry Profit - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding Profits**: As of February 13, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was 53.1 yuan/head, a decrease of 38.32 yuan/head; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising live hogs was - 98.32 yuan/head, a decrease of 60.23 yuan/head. The profit of laying hens was - 0.09 yuan/hen, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/hen week - on - week, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was - 0.84 yuan/chicken, a decrease of 1.05 yuan/chicken week - on - week [69]. 3.3.3. Other Industry Aspects - **Pork Imports**: In December 2025, China's pork imports were 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.33%; from January to December, the imports were 980,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.41% [75]. - **Substitute Products**: As of the week of February 13, the price of white - striped chickens was 14 yuan/kg, the same as last week. As of the week of February 12, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs in the country was - 1.12 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.03 yuan/kg compared with last week [79]. - **Feed Situation**: As of February 13, the spot price of soybean meal was 3167.71 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.57 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the spot price of corn was 2372.16 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.73 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's live hog feed cost index was 924.22, and the average market price of live hog feed was 2.67 yuan/kg, the same as last week. In December 2025, the monthly feed output was 30.086 million tons, an increase of 307,000 tons month - on - month. In January 2026, the sales of piglet feed decreased by 0.19% month - on - month and increased by 0.92% year - on - year [86][90][96]. - **CPI**: As of January 2026, China's CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year [102]. 3.3.4. Downstream - **Slaughter Enterprises**: In the 7th week of 2026, the operating rate of slaughter enterprises was 45.97%, an increase of 7.48 percentage points compared with last week and an increase of 25.56 percentage points year - on - year. The fresh - sales ratio of key domestic slaughter enterprises was 88.55%, an increase of 0.37% compared with last week, and the frozen - product storage rate was 17.00%, the same as last week [106]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of December 2025, the slaughter volume of designated live hog slaughtering enterprises was 48.91 million, an increase of 17.52% month - on - month. In December 2025, the national catering revenue was 573.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.19% [112]. 3.3.5. Live Hog - related Stocks - The report shows the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis of the stocks is provided [114][116]
巨星农牧1月商品肥猪销售量同比增长61.28%
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2026-02-13 07:56
巨星农牧(603477)(603477.SH)发布公告,公司2026年1月商品肥猪销售量为40.44万头,同比增长 61.28%。 ...
巨星农牧(603477.SH)1月商品肥猪销售量同比增长61.28%
智通财经网· 2026-02-13 07:55
智通财经APP讯,巨星农牧(603477.SH)发布公告,公司2026年1月商品肥猪销售量为40.44万头,同比增 长61.28%。 ...
购销逐渐转淡,肥标价差走扩
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-13 07:52
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for both the pig and egg sectors are neutral [3][6] 2. Core Viewpoints - The national average pig price continues its narrow - range oscillation, with regional price differentiation. Most areas are stable or slightly rising, while the Northeast is experiencing a slight decline. As the Spring Festival approaches, the slaughter volume has decreased after peaking, and the market's buying and selling sentiment has weakened. Attention should be paid to the pre - festival price callback and post - festival restocking [2] - The national egg spot price continues to decline, and the daily average decline has widened. With the approaching Spring Festival, logistics are restricted, leading to inventory accumulation in production areas and a weakening of egg prices. The terminal consumption is light, and there is a lack of substantial support for prices. The post - festival price callback range needs to be tracked [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pig 2605 contract yesterday was 11,540 yuan/ton, a change of - 15.00 yuan/ton (- 0.13%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary pigs was 12.38 yuan/kg, a change of + 0.26 yuan/kg from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 11.93 yuan/kg, a change of + 0.17 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 10.79 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous trading day [1] - Agricultural product prices: On February 12, the "200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices" was 129.48, up 0.03 points from the previous day; the "vegetable basket" product wholesale price index was 132.31, up 0.04 points. The average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product market was 18.07 yuan/kg, down 0.5% from the previous day; beef was 66.57 yuan/kg, up 0.6%; mutton was 65.06 yuan/kg, up 0.7%; eggs were 8.28 yuan/kg, up 0.5%; and white - striped chickens were 17.24 yuan/kg, down 0.9% [1] Market Analysis - The national average pig price shows a narrow - range oscillation, with regional differences. As the Spring Festival approaches, the scale farms' slaughter volume has decreased slightly, but the supply remains abundant. Some farmers are resisting price cuts, which supports price stability. The pre - festival centralized stocking is almost over, and the market's buying and selling sentiment has weakened. The slaughter volume has decreased after peaking, and southern regions will stop slaughtering later than the north. Attention should be paid to the pre - festival price callback and post - festival restocking [2] Strategy - The investment strategy for the pig market is neutral [3] Egg Market Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2603 contract yesterday was 3200 yuan/500 kg, a change of + 277.00 yuan (+ 9.48%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 3.51 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous trading day; in Shandong, it was 3.45 yuan/jin, a change of - 0.10 yuan; in Hebei, it was 2.89 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - The national egg spot price continues to decline, and the daily average decline has widened. As the Spring Festival approaches, logistics are restricted, leading to inventory accumulation in production areas and a weakening of egg prices. The terminal consumption is light, and there is a lack of substantial support for prices. The post - festival price callback range needs to be tracked [4][5] Strategy - The investment strategy for the egg market is neutral [6]
新希望不超33.38亿定增获深交所通过 招商证券建功
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2026-02-13 07:42
中国经济网北京2月13日讯 新希望(000876.SZ)昨晚披露关于向特定对象发行股票申请获得深圳证券 交易所上市审核中心审核通过的公告称,公司于近日收到深圳证券交易所出具的《关于新希望六和股份 有限公司申请向特定对象发行股票的审核中心意见告知函》,深交所发行上市审核机构对公司向特定对 象发行股票的申请文件进行了审核,认为公司符合发行条件、上市条件和信息披露要求,后续深交所将 按规定报中国证券监督管理委员会履行相关注册程序。 新希望表示,公司本次向特定对象发行股票事项尚需获得中国证监会同意注册后方可实施,最终能 否获得中国证监会作出同意注册的决定及其时间尚存在不确定性。公司将根据该事项的进展情况按照相 关规定及时履行信息披露义务。 新希望昨日披露2023年度向特定对象发行A股股票预案(第三次修订稿)显示,本次向特定对象发行 A股股票的发行对象为不超过35名符合中国证监会规定条件的特定投资者,包括证券投资基金管理公 司、证券公司、信托公司、财务公司、保险机构投资者、合格境外机构投资者及其他符合法律法规规定 的法人、自然人或其他合格机构投资者。证券投资基金管理公司、证券公司、合格境外机构投资者、人 民币合格境外机 ...
德康农牧1月生猪销售增长,股价微涨机构看好
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2026-02-13 07:37
经济观察网 德康农牧近期主要热点集中在股份回购和1月销售数据披露。根据证券时报报道,公司于 2026年2月10日以每股70.100-71.100港元回购4.93万股,金额347.49万港元,自2月5日起连续4日回购累 计11.44万股、斥资814.53万港元。此外,公司于2026年2月9日公告2026年1月销售生猪104.236万头(商 品肉猪约96.89万头),销售收入约16.54亿元,商品肉猪销售均价12.74元/公斤,环比上涨5.90%;黄羽 肉鸡销售657.277万只,收入约2.4亿元,均价14.53元/公斤,环比下降7.16%。 财报分析 2026年1月运营数据显示,德康农牧生猪销售规模稳定,商品肉猪价格环比提升,但黄羽肉鸡价格有所 回落。1月生猪销售收入占比较高,反映出主营业务韧性;价格变动与行业周期波动相关,需关注后续 成本控制进展(如公司目标将生猪成本降至14元/公斤以内)。 近7个交易日(2026年2月6日至13日),德康农牧股价区间振幅4.84%,截至2月13日最新价72.60港元, 较2月9日开盘价71.00港元微涨0.41%。其间单日最高价73.30港元(2月12日),最低价69.80 ...
唐人神(002567.SZ):公司目前尚无供港和出口生猪业务
Ge Long Hui· 2026-02-13 07:00
格隆汇2月13日丨唐人神(002567.SZ)在投资者互动平台表示,公司目前尚无供港和出口生猪业务。 ...
华统股份1月生猪销售收入环比增17.64%,股价近期波动
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2026-02-13 06:02
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Huaton Co., Ltd. (002840) reported a slight decrease in live pig sales volume but a significant increase in sales revenue, indicating strong demand in the market [1] - In January 2026, Huaton sold 246,800 live pigs, a month-on-month decrease of 0.61%, while sales revenue reached 403 million yuan, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 17.64% [1] - The average selling price of commodity pigs increased by 10.82% to 12.60 yuan per kilogram, suggesting robust demand in the spot market [1] Group 2 - The stock performance of Huaton has shown volatility, with a price of 9.75 yuan as of February 13, reflecting a daily increase of 1.35% but a cumulative decline of 3.90% over the past week [2] - Trading activity has been moderate, and the technical outlook remains bearish, with Bollinger Bands indicating a resistance level at 9.95 yuan and a support level at 9.47 yuan [2] - On February 13, there was a net inflow of 9.0178 million yuan from major funds [2]
春节前猪价暴跌1.22元!3961万头母猪死扛产能,养殖户压栏赌涨血亏预警!
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-02-13 05:44
1月中旬全国生猪均价冲到13.30元/公斤时,不少养殖户在朋友圈感慨"总算熬出头了"。可短短20天,猪 价就跌到12.08元/公斤,每公斤跌掉1.22元——相当于一头200斤的猪少卖122元。春节旺季不涨反跌, 这反常的行情背后,藏着一场关于产能的残酷博弈。 来源:市场资讯 (来源:大佑农饲料) 春节前猪价反常跳水:3961万头母猪压顶,这场产能博弈谁在裸泳? 国家统计局数据像一盆冷水:2025年12月能繁母猪存栏3961万头,是正常保有量的101.6%。这个数字 意味着什么?正常保有量是3900万头,现在多出来的61万头母猪,每月能多生约1200万头仔猪,半年后 就是1.44亿头商品猪。产能去化说了大半年,结果只是"原地踏步",甚至还在"偷偷增长"。 更扎心的是供应结构。12月样本企业140公斤以上大猪占比1.51%,连续4个月增加;90-140公斤中大猪 占比爬到35.5%,50-89公斤猪占比29.03%——全是"等着出栏的大家伙"。1月出栏均重124公斤,同比增 0.96%,创2023年同期最高。往年这时候养殖户忙着卖猪过年,今年却反常压栏,想等个高价。可猪不 等人,体重越涨,供应压力越大,最后只能" ...
玉树牦牛产品集散中心正式投入运营
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-02-12 19:35
据悉,玉树牦牛集散中心和生产车间总投资450余万元,占地面积1600余平方米。其中生产线3条,分别 为玉树牦牛肉酱生产线、玉树牦牛肉干生产线、酱卤肉生产线,产品共计20余种。投入运营平台有国家 能源集团平台以及淘宝、抖音等企业小程序等。 集散中心的建成运营,是玉树州落实省委省政府打造绿色有机农畜产品输出地主供区和玉树州·西宁市 结对发展"飞地经济"战略部署的具体行动,为玉树牦牛产品搭建起产供销一体化的专业化、规范化平 台,让绿色、有机、安全的玉树牦牛产品更加高效地走向全国市场,让农牧民群众在产业发展中获得更 多实惠、共享发展成果。 本报讯 (记者 程宦宁) 2月10日,玉树牦牛产品集散中心在西宁(国家级)经济技术开发区生物科技 产业园区正式揭牌运营,标志着玉树牦牛产业从养殖、加工到集散、销售的全链条全面打通,对推动生 态农牧业高质量发展和打造全省绿色有机农畜产品输出地主供区具有重要的里程碑意义。 ...